National: Cold spell Charts/ Media/ Forecasts (Strictly no chit-chat) (15/12/2010)

darkman2

ECM 144hrs which is Monday







Weathercheck must be having palpatations at this stage:D

If that came off we would be looking at very low daytime maximum temperatures.

JanuarySnowstor

Where do you see the troughs darkman ?
Also how do you know the occluded front is draped back over Ireland ?

To me, albeit great charts, I wonder has the potential shifted East to UK leaving us drier after Friday

darkman2

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Where do you see the troughs darkman ?

Can't see the toughs but you can see the warm sector. It's the same on the GFS



And once you see a warm sector you have cold and warm fronts. Looks like the system is in early stages of developmment on Friday but the GFS has it beefy enough for more widesread snow then just showers.

Also how do you know the occluded front is draped back over Ireland ?

The chinks in the isobars - specifically over the north.

To me, albeit great charts, I wonder has the potential shifted East to UK leaving us drier after Friday

I think it's an upgrade on earlier ECM runs.

kstand

I live in London with the Mrs and little lad. Shes' due to fly from Heathrow to Dublin on Sunday at lunchtime for the Christmas. What chances do ye give of that being able to happen based on these models?

darkman2

168hrs incoming from the Northwest.....more significant snow.








OK I will stop now!:pac:

Tom Cruises Left Nut

darkman2 wrote: »

OK I will stop now!:pac:

Please don't !! :pac:

Will be interesting to see what the GFS run says, they seem to be coming to agreement now

Elmo5

Met Eireann have issued a warning

Weather Warning

Issued at 14 December 2010 - 18:41
Weather Advisory
Weather Advisory for severe cold weather and snow over the coming days.

Very cold wintry weather will develop across Ireland during Thursday, sweeping down from the north, and leaving a severe frost and ice on Thursday night. Through Friday and the weekend afternoon temperatures will be in the range zero to plus 3 C, with night time temperatures typically minus 3 to minus 8 C.
Snow is expected to return. Through Thursday, Friday and Saturday this will be mainly in coastal counties of the north and west (although isolated snow showers could occur anywhere), with a more widespread mix of rain and snow following for Sunday and Monday. Roads will become icy each night wherever they are wet.

Regular updates will follow.

Deep Easterly

Evelyn was very calm on the 6/1 forecast I thought, almost like she was restraining herself from letting out a big"Whaaaa Whooo"!

redsteveireland

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Evelyn was very calm on the 6/1 forecast I thought, almost like she was restraining herself from letting out a big"Whaaaa Whooo"!

Were you in hiding? Looks like we could have an interesting couple of days ahead on the west. Wouldn't have been right for you to miss it.

Deep Easterly

redsteveireland wrote: »

Were you in hiding? Looks like we could have an interesting couple of days ahead on the west. Wouldn't have been right for you to miss it.

I am not too confident that my part of the west will see much to be honest but giving the nature of the wind stream, other parts will do much better. I think the Mayo hills will absorb most of the energy from these snow showers before they reach here but who knows how it will all turn out in the end

maquiladora

Wow

What a chart...

-12 to -14 uppers over the country with -16 just touching the northern coast.

:cool:

hotwhiskey

What you should of said Maq was



CARLSBURG don't do winter charts but if the did the would look like this.:D

maquiladora wrote: »

Wow

What a chart...

-12 to -14 uppers over the country with -16 just touching the northern coast.

:cool:

Harps

I know it probably wont but assuming that -16 does end up over us, what sort of temperatures would we looking at?

thetonynator

Looking at maq's chart, - 20 uppers nearly in scotland and tunisia in africa entirely covered by sub zero uppers. . . The worlds going mad! -12 uppers in france. . . Wtf? armaggedon? :P :P :pac:

TheMilkyPirate

18z be rolling out in a few minutes, I'll keep an eye on my low next wednesday :P

Vizual Pics

Nice image of the Greenland Express en-route, stopping off at Iceland and then next stop Donegal, Leitrim, Sligo, Mayo, Galway and down to WolfIre in Clare, Limerick, Kerry and everything east of the above..:D

Rikand

thetonynator wrote: »

Looking at maq's chart, - 20 uppers nearly in scotland and tunisia in africa entirely covered by sub zero uppers. . . The worlds going mad! -12 uppers in france. . . Wtf? armaggedon? :P :P :pac:

more like The Day After Tomorrow

Vizual Pics

Harps wrote: »

I know it probably wont but assuming that -16 does end up over us, what sort of temperatures would we looking at?

Usually in Ireland you add 10 to the 850temps to get the surface so -14 uppers would give approx -4 at ground level.

JONJO THE MISER

Cant freakin wait from snow starved kerry.

WolfeIRE

Article by Fergal Tierney on Polar Low potential this weekend
http://www.irishweatheronline.com/2010/12/polar-low-potential-for-ireland-this.html

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Oh it looks lovely

Elmo5

This run is looking pretty good for nationwide snow Friday afternoon and evening?

fizzycyst

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Article by Fergal Tierney on Polar Low potential this weekend
http://www.irishweatheronline.com/2010/12/polar-low-potential-for-ireland-this.html

Hi Wolf,
Am I correct in saying that the article says if a polar low situation does occur, it will only clip the west coast? no precipitation for the rest of the country?

delw

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Article by Fergal Tierney on Polar Low potential this weekend
http://www.irishweatheronline.com/2010/12/polar-low-potential-for-ireland-this.html

cheers Wolfe(&Su) but if that beast does come off is it not moving away from the west?

Edit:just seen post above,sorry

WolfeIRE

fizzycyst wrote: »

Hi Wolf,
Am I correct in saying that the article says if a polar low situation does occur, it will only clip the west coast? no precipitation for the rest of the country?

polar lows lose their verocity as they track inland fizzy but we are not accustomed to such systems here so it would be hard to predict how far inland such a system would progress. It should be pointed out that this polar low is only a possibility at this stage

hotwhiskey

t|nt|n wrote: »

Oh it looks lovely

I have noticed on the latest 18z run has the low slightly further east than earlier and the cold northerly's delayed a bit. I hope this is not the start of some downgrade for here.

TheInquisitor

hotwhiskey wrote: »

I have noticed on the latest 18z run has the low slightly further east than earlier and the cold northerly's delayed a bit. I hope this is not the start of some downgrade for here.

I have to disagree with you here. While the low is slightly further east the cold northerlys are expected on the exact same timeframe as they were 4 days ago.

I've been watching at every update the 19:00 Thursday updates and every one of them has stayed on the same timeframe. To be honest im shockd at how well the GFS picked up this outbreak 4-5 days ago and also how consistent it has been with no real major changes since then. The models have really come a long way and they are recently starting to get VERY accurate!!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Easterlies

Vizual Pics

This Icelandic website gives a nice precipitation/temp and wind model...up until Sunday.

http://en.vedur.is/photos/sjo_atlant_urkomuspa/101214_1200_36.png

dirtyghettokid

TheInquisitor wrote: »

that is such an impressive image. i mean.....HOW.....can it be 4 degrees above zero (up to 8 in one small section) in greenland and BELOW zero in africa????? it just seems: :eek::eek:
i've never seen the likes.....