National: Cold spell Charts/ Media/ Forecasts (Strictly no chit-chat) (15/12/2010)

leahyl

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1215/weather.html

WTF?! So it's apparently not going to be so bad after all...

TheMilkyPirate

leahyl wrote: »

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1215/weather.html

WTF?! So it's apparently not going to be so bad after all...

What? Where did you get that idea out of? That article makes it sound quite bad if i'm going to be honest there's nothing in that article to suggest it isn't going to be as bad as we thought.

leahyl

baraca wrote: »

What? Where did you get that idea out of? That article makes it sound quite bad if i'm going to be honest there's nothing in that article to suggest it isn't going to be as bad as we thought.

It does say that it's not going to be as bad as the last one - the last one was pretty bad so if it's not going to be as bad as that........it prob won't last terribly long?? Sorry it's just when i hear this it makes me think that perhaps we are getting a bit overexcited!

typhooner

that's only because they do not see this northerly hitting Dublin, they are not seeing the same models we look at showing embedded Lows\Disturbances that can give more widespread snow across a larger swathe of the country than a standard showery airflow

ffarrell7

leahyl wrote: »

Am i right in saying that at this stage these models look good for everyone getting some snow?!

I doubt there will be any snow in Cork City..maybe a few flakes although more western counties will get some and Dublin and the East coast will get hammered later on Friday and Saturday.:D:D

TheMilkyPirate

leahyl wrote: »

It does say that it's not going to be as bad as the last one - the last one was pretty bad so if it's not going to be as bad as that........it prob won't last terribly long?? Sorry it's just when i hear this it makes me think that perhaps we are getting a bit overexcited!

They most likely mean temperature wise and the longevity of the spell. But nobody knows how long this will go on really there just going by latest guidance.

maquiladora

12Z op looks like it was one of the milder runs by far after the weekend...

Op :



Mean :

Spindle

Is there anywhere to track the progress of the front? Should it be passing over the Faroe Islands about now? Would looking at conditions on the Faroe Islands give a good indication if the models are correct?

typhooner

Spindle wrote: »

Is there anywhere to track the progress of the front? Should it be passing over the Faroe Islands about now? Would looking at conditions on the Faroe Islands give a good indication if the models are correct?

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

the cold front has just gone through Iceland

eoinbergin

ffarrell7 wrote: »

Dublin and the East coast will get hammered later on Friday and Saturday.:D:D

Where is this info coming from. Any of the charts i have seen have shown Dublin and the surrounding east coast areas with 1-2cm's of precipitation on sat and sun...are we expecting this hammering to come from the irish sea or where

can we have some references put up please. not that i dont believe you i'd just like to look at them myself

thanks

Rougies

Spindle wrote: »

Is there anywhere to track the progress of the front? Should it be passing over the Faroe Islands about now? Would looking at conditions on the Faroe Islands give a good indication if the models are correct?

You can see it on satellite images on sat24.com moving south very quickly. It's passing through the Faroe Islands now. Yeah conditions there in the next few hours wiould give a good indication of what's coming our way.

Spindle

Rougies wrote: »

You can see it on satellite images on sat24.com moving south very quickly. It's passing through the Faroe Islands now. Yeah conditions there in the next few hours wiould give a good indication of what's coming our way.

Not sure how accurate this link is http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/06011.html

But Vagar Airport on the Faroes has just dropped from 4C to 1C recently and is now showing up as rain/snow whereas it was just showing as rain not so long ago.

Just noticed as well the dew point is dropping fast as well now at -1c and the winds are 57kmh gusts to 78kmh from the North.

Elmo5

I like the icelandic site for precip prediction:

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec

maquiladora

12Z COAMPS precip for late Friday/Saturday morning :

Mayo Exile

M4 buoy temperature and dewpoint reports would be a good first indicator of a change in conditions after the passage of the front tomorrow. Its approx 50 miles WNW of Rossan Point in Donegal.

Link to Met Eireann for these reports: http://www.met.ie/latest/buoy.asp

force eleven

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z op looks like it was one of the milder runs by far after the weekend...

Op :



Mean :

Bet that won't be the same next run. There was a similar scenario at the start of the last spell, with low pressure and milder weather pushing up at t+144 and it was pushed back and back and never materialised. IF it continues for a run or two it might be the start of the end, the models may have latched onto something. GFS 06z was showing a blowtorch southwesterly over us on Christmas Day with double digit temps...Typical we weather people look to the end of a cold spell when it hasn't even begun yet....:D

M.T. Cranium

Latest from Thorshavn in the Faeroes ...

ekvg 151714z 36031g42kt 9999 rasn bkn012 bkn015 01/m01 q1018 rmk/rwy13/31 clsd due wip. see notam e0082/10 wind 850ft 36042g57kt 340v040

Note the report from higher up, winds gusting to 57 kt.

Ciaran500

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Latest from Thorshavn in the Faeroes ...

ekvg 151714z 36031g42kt 9999 rasn bkn012 bkn015 01/m01 q1018 rmk/rwy13/31 clsd due wip. see notam e0082/10 wind 850ft 36042g57kt 340v040

Note the report from higher up, winds gusting to 57 kt.

Ehh, any translators here? :pac:

Rougies

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Latest from Thorshavn in the Faeroes ...

ekvg 151714z 36031g42kt 9999 rasn bkn012 bkn015 01/m01 q1018 rmk/rwy13/31 clsd due wip. see notam e0082/10 wind 850ft 36042g57kt 340v040

Note the report from higher up, winds gusting to 57 kt.

so basically...

northerly winds 31kt gusting 42, sleet, broken cloud, temp 1c ,Dp -1c,
runway 13/31 closed becuase of 850ft winds 42kt gusting 57kt

th3 s1aught3r

The BBC has rain forecast for tommorow morning. This will be followed by dropping temps so roads should be bad by tommorow night. Then the snow starts to move down the country on Friday and Saturday. It looks like there will be snow over the Irish sea so it will be interesting to see how this effects the east coast over the weekend

Met Eireann just said on radio one that it will stay cold untill Xmas eve when it will warm up in the whest...
Do they not know thats FI ??

I think they are trying to calm the masses and being asked to calm the masses by the rte reporters tbh as they must know the uncertainty of next week well but are putting a certainty of a Xmas eve warm up into their forecast-thats just silly imho!

Oh and their statement that this won't be as severe as the spell gone out is taking the proverbial poetic licence too...

WolfeIRE

SNOW RISK CHART
http://www.irishweatheronline.com/2010/12/snow-risk-chart-for-ireland-thursday-am.html

WolfeIRE

Ill update it later again tonight

wolfe

th3 s1aught3r

Deleted User wrote: »

Met Eireann just said on radio one that it will stay cold untill Xmas eve when it will warm up in the whest...
Do they not know thats FI ??

I think they are trying to calm the masses and being asked to calm the masses by the rte reporters tbh as they must know the uncertainty of next week well but are putting a certainty of a Xmas eve warm up into their forecast-thats just silly imho!

Oh and their statement that this won't be as severe as the spell gone out is taking the proverbial poetic licence too...

Their forecasts are way more conservative than other weather agencies. I think they are more worried about making mistakes than anything tbh. At least now they are admitting we will be seeing snow

cjmcork

Joan Blackburn just on RTE news played it down - said it wouldn't be as severe as last week - help????? should we be stocking up or should we relax a bit?? (btw, I'm not being smart with this question - dead serious!)

Brenireland

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

Their forecasts are way more conservative than other weather agencies. I think they are more worried about making mistakes than anything tbh. At least now they are admitting we will be seeing snow

This is sad do,they should let people now what the worst scenario may result in as people should be prepared for this harsh weather & have food/old people prepared for it!

HellFireClub

It seems to me that the direction of the cloud within the two red circles on the sat pic from www.sat24.com I've attached, the left flank of that cloud is heading straight for our east coast, just by looking at the animation on www.sat24.com...

force eleven

cjmcork wrote: »

Joan Blackburn just on RTE news played it down - said it wouldn't be as severe as last week - help????? should we be stocking up or should we relax a bit?? (btw, I'm not being smart with this question - dead serious!)

Joan is and has been as long as I've seen and heard her in the media, a 'mild' ramper, from the same school as Gerry Murphy....that said, she may well be seeing the same signals as we've seen from the GFS - that is, milder weather getting in by this time next week. I'd stock up anyways, its not like it'll be wasted with Christmas coming up

cjmcork

force eleven wrote: »

Joan is and has been as long as I've seen and heard her in the media, a 'mild' ramper, from the same school as Gerry Murphy....that said, she may well be seeing the same signals as we've seen from the GFS - that is, milder weather getting in by this time next week. I'd stock up anyways, its not like it'll be wasted with Christmas coming up

thanks - need to know when it'll be safe to drive from Dublin to Cork - due to finish work on Tuesday but am getting exponentially anxious about the weather and wondering if I should just finish on Friday and head down on Saturday for the hols..............am grateful for realistic predictions................thanks!

roryc1

Sweet jebus look at the low on sat http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php