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National: Cold spell Charts/ Media/ Forecasts (Strictly no chit-chat) (15/12/2010)

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    #302
    TheInquisitor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,530 ✭✭✭TheInquisitor


    Between 0(on coasts) to 10 cm (leinster) of snow depth by saturday 9pm

    uksnowdepth.png


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    #303
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    That low could shift a few hundred miles east and deliver to UK and feck all here.

    Yes there is HUGE potential but thats all it is at the moment and anyone that has been watching charts for years will know how this can kick you in the teeth and downgrade very quickly. People need to be realistic.


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    #304
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,963 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    TheInquisitor wrote: »
    Between 0(on coasts) to 10 cm (leinster) of snow depth by saturday 9pm

    If the models were to come off as they are looking tonight then i think that chart could be very conservative.


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    #305
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,116 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Villain wrote: »
    That low could shift a few hundred miles east and deliver to UK and feck all here.

    Yes there is HUGE potential but thats all it is at the moment and anyone that has been watching charts for years will know how this can kick you in the teeth and downgrade very quickly. People need to be realistic.

    agreed villain , that dry area over england could push more west in terms of the models there still not 100% sure of where everything is going to be placed


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    #306
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Villain wrote: »
    That low could shift a few hundred miles east and deliver to UK and feck all here.

    Yes there is HUGE potential but thats all it is at the moment and anyone that has been watching charts for years will know how this can kick you in the teeth and downgrade very quickly. People need to be realistic.

    Thanks for that Villain - as you know i have not been reading charts for years so i was getting a little carried away i think - needed to be brought back down to earth! I still hold out hope though:)


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    #307
    mickger844posts
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    Charts and models are fine but for me the one most important thing that gives me confidence in all this is that M.T Cranium is 100% on board. This man has been calling this event for weeks and weeks now. He has the knowledge and experience to call this so i'm going with him all the way.


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    #308
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    TheInquisitor wrote: »
    Between 0(on coasts) to 10 cm (leinster) of snow depth by saturday 9pm


    10cm is one of the outer bands there, the deepest one looks like 18cm actually.

    Those charts can be very conservative though and locally or on higher ground those figures would be a lot higher I think if the GFS came off exactly as it looks now.

    MT is predicting up to 18cm for inland southeast on sunday alone for example.


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    #309
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    18Z GFS ensemble average at 60 hours :

    gens-21-2-60.png?18

    High confidence there.


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    #310
    TheInquisitor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,530 ✭✭✭TheInquisitor


    maquiladora wrote: »
    10cm is one of the outer bands there, the deepest one looks like 18cm actually.

    Those charts can be very conservative though and locally or on higher ground those figures would be a lot higher I think if the GFS came off exactly as it looks now.

    MT is predicting up to 18cm for inland southeast on sunday alone for example.

    Your dead right didn't spot that. I can tell you colour blindness does not make these charts easy to read and interpret!!!

    Although looking at MT's predictions he's talking 45cm of snow over the 5 days with below freezing thats going nowhere fast. I suppose i just can't believe anywhere in Ireland is going to have half a metre of snow. Did i just say that.. HALF A METRE OF SNOW?


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    #311
    snow ghost
    Registered Users Posts: 1,379 ✭✭✭snow ghost


    It’s 8.2c here now, the wind has been picking up for the last couple of hours, there is definitely an air of foreboding outside that would send chills up your spine.

    Today the sea was absolutely dead calm, it was like a mirror, I’ve rarely seen it that still - even the tide didn’t seem to stir anything but tiny ripples that were silently creeping in and out.

    I was talking to a couple of older people about 1947 here and there are resonances with what happened prior to that monumental episode. In 1947 there were 7 foot snow drifts on the coast, even the beaches around here were covered, people had to dig themselves out of their homes by ripping their doors off and shovelling their way out of 7 foot drifts.

    I have my shovel at the ready... wish me luck.


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    #312
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    mickger844posts wrote: »
    Always the voice of reason Nach, i agree with you to a certain extent but in fairness have we ever seen such amazing charts at 2 or 3 days out? You cant blame us for getting excited.

    it is exciting to look at these charts for people like yourself and others who are seasoned model watchers, but for casual viewers they may not realise it could easily go pear shaped and then be left very disappointed.


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    #313
    cram1971
    Registered Users Posts: 293 ✭✭cram1971


    alfa beta wrote: »
    nope - not til tomorrow
    I'll give it another 50 mins so and head to bed so!


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    #314
    lucy2010
    Registered Users Posts: 774 ✭✭✭lucy2010


    TheInquisitor wrote: »
    Your dead right didn't spot that. I can tell you colour blindness does not make these charts easy to read and interpret!!!

    Although looking at MT's predictions he's talking 45cm of snow over the 5 days with below freezing thats going nowhere fast. I suppose i just can't believe anywhere in Ireland is going to have half a metre of snow. Did i just say that.. HALF A METRE OF SNOW?

    & whats half a metre of snow ??? 1982 all over again - told you papa smurf was smelling 82 again - & we were blaming his meds :D Well one things for sure even if we get an inch, this week sure has been exciting... & Fair play & hats off to MT , hes been on about the 19th for weeks now........ MT for Taoiseach !!:D


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    #315
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    TheInquisitor wrote: »
    Your dead right didn't spot that. I can tell you colour blindness does not make these charts easy to read and interpret!!!

    Although looking at MT's predictions he's talking 45cm of snow over the 5 days with below freezing thats going nowhere fast. I suppose i just can't believe anywhere in Ireland is going to have half a metre of snow. Did i just say that.. HALF A METRE OF SNOW?

    45cm is about the amount that caused the roof of the Metrodome to collapse the other day in Minnesota. :pac:

    I really dont think we will get that much, but Ive never seen charts like these under 96 hours so who knows. MT is certainly more experienced than me.


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    #316
    Vizual Pics
    Closed Accounts Posts: 82 ✭✭Vizual Pics


    The first band of cloud will bring the rain which then turns to sleet/snow..and then the onslaught begins!

    image.ashx?ok=1&country=eu&type=slide&index=1&sat


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    #317
    aurora 527
    Registered Users Posts: 413 ✭✭aurora 527


    ecmwf.png


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    #318
    123balltv
    Registered Users Posts: 1,110 ✭✭✭123balltv


    that arctic airmass looks angry :):)


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    #319
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    TheInquisitor wrote: »
    Between 0(on coasts) to 10 cm (leinster) of snow depth by saturday 9pm

    uksnowdepth.png



    slightly odd that chart - east mayo has more lying snow than Ulster. i'll believe that when i see it!


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    #320
    heyheyhey1982
    Closed Accounts Posts: 433 ✭✭heyheyhey1982


    CAn someone please explain how BBC weather has Dublin Pretty much basking in sunshine? There 5 day forecast is sunny- to partially cloudy so is it a case they dont really put an effort into Dublin/ Ireland?
    very confusing!!!!

    I'd rely on MT more though- its just strange of the conflict


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    #321
    largepants
    Registered Users Posts: 796 ✭✭✭largepants


    Forgive me but I'm only learning.

    @vizual pics - I assume that mass of cloud is heading our way. Am I right in saying the wind should be blowing in a ssw direction for that to hit Ireland? And obviously there is a chance that the wind could change and miss us?


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    #322
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Ok, off to bed now.

    Two things :

    1) Expect a downgrade on the next run(s). After such good charts downgrades are always likely, but at the same time I wouldnt expect a massive downgrade now either.

    2) Prepare for the worst while conditions are still good, just in case.


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