National: Cold spell Charts/ Media/ Forecasts (Strictly no chit-chat) (15/12/2010)

illumin · 15-12-2010 8:50pm

im no expert but the chart for sat looks nearly as bad as the one for jan 1947
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Metoffice_3_feb_47.jpg

M.T. Cranium · 15-12-2010 8:50pm

ECM tends to confirm earlier GEM output, and while it looks rather wonky the GFS was somewhat similar for the weekend, UKMO about a three-quarter dose of same.

My boards forecast philosophy from earlier was to keep the emphasis on potential for this scenario developing and let people read betwen the lines to see this risk, knowing that it was never quite nailed down but might have been the more likely of two outcomes, the other one being more of a mixed bag of almost this and not quite that.

Well, the balance of probability is now swinging towards an extreme alert/warning type forecast and so watch for an update over in the forecast section at 8 p.m.

The concept that "this won't be as bad as the last time" is looking somewhat shaky -- everything's relative but at the moment, this is looking like saying World War II won't be as bad as World War I. Many found it worse. :eek:

TheInquisitor · 15-12-2010 8:52pm

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

My post was a question about the chart. How is that not relevent to a Charts thread ?

This is a models thread regarding the current cold conditions about to hit us

goodies wrote: »

I would disagree with you regarding my post which in fact has to do with forecasting and charting as I was asking about satellite images from today which I wanted assistance with interpreting. I do not think anybody needs to be unfriendly or rude...thank you I am sincerely trying to learn here

You yourself in your own post apologise for your question being chit chat and yet you still posted. I think i'll do what i did last snowfest , sit back and watch netweather because its impossible to get details battered out in here

TheInquisitor · 15-12-2010 8:54pm

illumin wrote: »

im no expert but the chart for sat looks nearly as bad as the one for jan 1947
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Metoffice_3_feb_47.jpg

I suppose the key here is how deep that low(if it happens) develops. I mean i didn't think the chart Maq posted was possible at 965 off the south west coast but if it did happen. There would be no marginality. Ireland would get absolutely plastered and i would apologise profusely to Maq for ever doubting his genius!!

force eleven · 15-12-2010 8:56pm

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

Haha, someone should tell Met Eireann, in case they are looking at the wrong charts :cool:

Of course, they warned about the foot of snow Wicklow and the south east got prior to the last spell :rolleyes:. Point being, it is impossible to pinpoint how much snow will fall and where 72 hours out or so. They'll hedge their bets publicly, and when it gets apparent it will be disruptive, they'll fall into line with us

patneve2 · 15-12-2010 9:00pm

Will be interesting to see what the 18z GFS has to say about this famous low. The shape of the low on the 12zgfs is unfavourable to Ireland, however the ECM is amazing, potential for 15cm if that came off (regarding Dublin).

roryc1 · 15-12-2010 9:03pm

Only getting back to my computer now and all i can say is wow, the ecm is fantastic keeping us cold till the 25th and the potential for snow is crazy.
That low could dump some snow over large parts of the country and then winds stay easterly for a few days :
The ecm should be the model to follow for the 3-5 day range,so lets hope it keeps up the good work todays 12z

typhooner · 15-12-2010 9:04pm

latest fax chart has the triple point just off the West Coast...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1a.gif

th3 s1aught3r · 15-12-2010 9:04pm

TheInquisitor wrote: »

This is a models thread regarding the current cold conditions about to hit us

Exactly what my question was about
Who put you in charge anyway ?

/thread

typhooner · 15-12-2010 9:06pm

the ECM has not been performing well over the last few weeks especially at +96. All the building blocks appear to be place for a serious snow event

aurora 527 · 15-12-2010 9:08pm

patneve2 wrote: »

Will be interesting to see what the 18z GFS has to say about this famous low. The shape of the low on the 12zgfs is unfavourable to Ireland, however the ECM is amazing, potential for 15cm if that came off (regarding Dublin).

Which is more reliable.. gfs or ecm?

force eleven · 15-12-2010 9:09pm

typhooner wrote: »

latest fax chart has the triple point just off the West Coast...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1a.gif

That throws a spanner in the works for the Wesht. Temporarily anyways, rain/sleet for a while?

patneve2 · 15-12-2010 9:11pm

aurora 527 wrote: »

Which is more reliable.. gfs or ecm?

ECM better than GFS, BUT, as said previously, it had serious problems progging this cold spell.

typhooner · 15-12-2010 9:12pm

force eleven wrote: »

That throws a spanner in the works for the Wesht. Temporarily anyways, rain/sleet for a while?

it's touch and go but if it stays as shown the west will still be in the firing line, anyways it's a a very small warm sector and only marginally warmer
s

TheInquisitor · 15-12-2010 9:33pm

There has been a lot of talk of Thunder snow lately and also in MTC's most recent post in the Daily forecasts.

Thundersnow, also known as a winter thunderstorm or a thunder snowstorm, is a rare kind of thunderstorm with snow falling as the primary precipitation instead of rain. It commonly falls in regions of strong upward motion within the cold sector of extratropical cyclone, where the precipitation consists of ice pellets rather than snow.

One unique aspect of thundersnow is that the snowfall acts as an acoustic suppressor of the thunder. The thunder from a typical thunderstorm can be heard many miles away, while the thunder from thundersnow can usually only be heard within a two to three mile radius from the lightning.

Check out this guys reaction

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5eQZMLdzUgU

And also this blizzard with thunder snow.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBUYmpnjob8

roryc1 · 15-12-2010 9:41pm

Going by the ecm the thing about this potential snow event that will be different from the last is the wind, we could see some big drifts where heavy snow falls

TheInquisitor · 15-12-2010 10:00pm

roryc1 wrote: »

Going by the ecm the thing about this potential snow event that will be different from the last is the wind, we could see some big drifts where heavy snow falls

Going by the GFS forecast it looks like Ireland will be windy tomorrow but after that the wind should die out except for the coastal areas and that the south of the UK will bear the brunt of a winter storm as per attached chart.

Hate to be a killjoy...someone please prove me mistaken!!!

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 15-12-2010 10:01pm

Gonna be a piece on the upcoming spell on the 9 news

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 15-12-2010 10:02pm

TheInquisitor wrote: »

Going by the GFS forecast it looks like Ireland will be windy tomorrow but after that the wind should die out except for the coastal areas and that the south of the UK will bear the brunt of a winter storm as per attached chart.

Hate to be a killjoy...someone please prove me mistaken!!!

If it is a low front then wind speeds wouldn't matter as far as I know, correct me if I am wrong though !

TheMilkyPirate · 15-12-2010 10:03pm

TheInquisitor wrote: »

Going by the GFS forecast it looks like Ireland will be windy tomorrow but after that the wind should die out except for the coastal areas and that the south of the UK will bear the brunt of a winter storm as per attached chart.

Hate to be a killjoy...someone please prove me mistaken!!!

Wait for the 18z.

roryc1 · 15-12-2010 10:07pm

t|nt|n wrote: »

If it is a low front then wind speeds wouldn't matter as far as I know, correct me if I am wrong though !

Its the low that will create the wind i'm talking about

leahyl · 15-12-2010 10:08pm

My brother just came home from work and said that on the radio they're still saying that it's "not gonna be as bad as the last one" - which is it like?!! Make up your minds met eireann!

DominoDub · 15-12-2010 10:13pm

Friday Nights Precip Chart looks great !

Taken from the Icelandic MET

http://en.vedur.is/

cjmcork · 15-12-2010 10:17pm

DominoDub wrote: »

Friday Nights Precip Chart looks great !

Taken from the Icelandic MET

http://en.vedur.is/

sorry, does this mean 'great' as in 'great - there'll be snow' or 'great - no snow'?

inabina · 15-12-2010 10:17pm

t|nt|n wrote: »

Gonna be a piece on the upcoming spell on the 9 news

has it been on yet?

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 15-12-2010 10:20pm

inabina wrote: »

has it been on yet?

Yeah, more of the same

"not as bad as last time etc..."

downwiththatsor · 15-12-2010 10:20pm

inabina wrote: »

has it been on yet?

Its been on, nothing new just same as 6 one, weather forecast should be a little different to the one after 6 one hopefully, i.e. more specifics.

I think the NRA have told them to try and convince us its not going to be so bad on the roads as they are going to be under severe pressure to provide enough salt.