National: Cold spell Charts/ Media/ Forecasts (Strictly no chit-chat) (15/12/2010)

TheMilkyPirate · 15-12-2010 11:10pm

Are we in a reliable time-frame now? As in will it vary much from this run tomorrow and friday?

Brenireland · 15-12-2010 11:10pm

for every snow flake i see i shall down a pint of beer

cherryghost · 15-12-2010 11:11pm

I say Thursday evening is a more reliable timeframe for the weekend ahead. ME will probably upgrade their forecast at that time if these charts are as accurate as they may very will be tomorrow evening.

Mayo Exile · 15-12-2010 11:13pm

leahyl wrote: »

Would you mind explaining this Mayo Exile? I haven't an iota. is it good or bad?

Maquiladora's post (#270) explains it very well in one crisp sentence!:D.

roryc1 · 15-12-2010 11:15pm

Is M.T. drawing these charts

mickger844posts · 15-12-2010 11:20pm

Think ill blow this one up and use it as a dart board. You cant beat a bit of bully

BEASTERLY · 15-12-2010 11:20pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Uh oh....

Oh no this is all my fault , the other day in the other thread i wished for a SVPL(SUPER VISCOUS POLAR LOW)! Sorry!:o

maquiladora · 15-12-2010 11:20pm

I am sort of lost for words. Seeing charts like that at just 54 to 84 hours and not way off in FI....its pretty special. In fact, I have never seen charts as good in terms of snow/blizzard potential at such a close timeframe.

Just have to keep telling myself its only a model and it will probably downgrade.

Rougies · 15-12-2010 11:21pm

I thought the ECM for saturday looked amazing when it came out earlier this evening but kept calm knowing it's only one model and one run. Then comes the 18z GFS that not only backs up the ECM but upgrades it massively!!! Incredible charts! :eek:

(I'm still keeping calm for the moment though, as maq says, it's only a model

)

laurence997 · 15-12-2010 11:23pm

So do these charts seem to shift focus to Leinster or am I seeing half the picture?

leahyl · 15-12-2010 11:26pm

laurence997 wrote: »

So do these charts seem to shift focus to Leinster or am I seeing half the picture?

No laurence i think it's still looking good for Munster

from what i can see anyway - i might be completely wrong!

TheMilkyPirate · 15-12-2010 11:26pm

laurence997 wrote: »

So do these charts seem to shift focus to Leinster or am I seeing half the picture?

It will probably bear the brunt of it but everywhere will see heavy snow.

Rougies · 15-12-2010 11:27pm

laurence997 wrote: »

So do these charts seem to shift focus to Leinster or am I seeing half the picture?

No, they upgrade snowfall potential for the whole country on saturday!

DarkJager · 15-12-2010 11:27pm

Enjoying all the updates guys, very informative and helpful. Still ****ting bricks for the drive home Friday night but once I'm there I will enjoy this event. I'm no weather expert but I'm assuming the joy being expressed in here means something very big is on the way

maquiladora · 15-12-2010 11:27pm

laurence997 wrote: »

So do these charts seem to shift focus to Leinster or am I seeing half the picture?

Pretty much all areas would be at risk at certain times. On this run Leinster could see the most intense precip at times but that could very easily change on the next run.

TheMilkyPirate · 15-12-2010 11:30pm

The mild air has been pretty much told where to shove it on this run too, Out to +177 (22/12) and max temps for the midlands at -13 at 21:00.

Iancar29 · 15-12-2010 11:31pm

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Oh no this is all my fault , the other day in the other thread i wished for a SVPL(SUPER VISCOUS POLAR LOW)! Sorry!:o

WOO!... WE ASKED ... AND WE SHALL RECIEVE!!

:D:D

laurence997 · 15-12-2010 11:32pm

leahyl wrote: »

No laurence i think it's still looking good for Munster from what i can see anyway - i might be completely wrong!

Think positive anyway :P

maquiladora · 15-12-2010 11:32pm

Not too worried about that rain and slightly milder air at sweeping in at 180. Thats total FI. Just compare the 850 temps from the 12Z and 18Z at 180.

I wouldnt really pay attention to anything beyond 120 hours at the moment.

Edit...

ok, just for the laugh....there is no real breakdown in FI and then on Christmas Day...

gfs-2-240.png?18

Hahahahaha....madness

leahyl · 15-12-2010 11:32pm

You know how in the past we have gotten very excited about certain weather systems (such as this one) coming our way only for our hopes to be dashed at the last minute? Well what are the chances that this will happen - or is it looking fairly certain at this stage that the whole country will see heavy snow?

Sorry if i'm repeating stuff but just don't want to wake in the morning to see that the whole thing has been downgraded significantly....

TheInquisitor · 15-12-2010 11:38pm

leahyl wrote: »

You know how in the past we have gotten very excited about certain weather systems (such as this one) coming our way only for our hopes to be dashed at the last minute? Well what are the chances that this will happen - or is it looking fairly certain at this stage that the whole country will see heavy snow?

Sorry if i'm repeating stuff but just don't want to wake in the morning to see that the whole thing has been downgraded significantly....

I don't think we'll have this system down at all until less than 24 hours to go. Tomorrow morning should show us the full picture. The problem is the models have no history for this kind of outbreak and also the system is very complex. In one of the GFS charts there were 3-4 low pressures in the system. Madness!

maquiladora · 15-12-2010 11:41pm

:eek:

pad199207 · 15-12-2010 11:41pm

leahyl wrote: »

You know how in the past we have gotten very excited about certain weather systems (such as this one) coming our way only for our hopes to be dashed at the last minute? Well what are the chances that this will happen - or is it looking fairly certain at this stage that the whole country will see heavy snow?

Sorry if i'm repeating stuff but just don't want to wake in the morning to see that the whole thing has been downgraded significantly....

yes thank you , it could well happen and all those who have hyped this thing OVER THE WALL at this stage, will be sadly dissapointed im afraid

nacho libre · 15-12-2010 11:42pm

i hate to be a killjoy, but it can't be stressed enough that this potential snowstorm could get shifted over to England on the next run. so it is best not to get carried away with any run over the next 12 hours. the gfs is notorious for throwing up dream charts only to ditch them on the next run. while it's encouraging the ecm is on board, they too could easily show a downgrade on the next run. i've seen people salivate about charts over on netweather many times, only to throw their toys out of the pram when the next run wasn't nearly as good.

cram1971 · 15-12-2010 11:43pm

Should we not be seeing the temp starting to drop in the NW at this stage?

TheInquisitor · 15-12-2010 11:45pm

maquiladora wrote: »

:eek:

DO NOT SHOW THIS CHART TO VILLIAN!!!! I think that -16 is on his house!

alfa beta · 15-12-2010 11:46pm

cram1971 wrote: »

Should we not be seeing the temp starting to drop in the NW at this stage?

nope - not til tomorrow

pistolpetes11 · 15-12-2010 11:47pm

pad199207 wrote: »

yes thank you , it could well happen and all those who have hyped this thing OVER THE WALL at this stage, will be sadly dissapointed im afraid

The only thing that is happening is a major outbreak of cold and snowy conditions , how bad its going to be is another question but the prospect of it being very disruptive is there.

Or do you have different view from looking at the models ?

maquiladora · 15-12-2010 11:48pm

nacho libre wrote: »

i hate to be a killjoy, but it can't be stressed enough that this potential snowstorm could get shifted over to England on the next run. so it is best not to get carried away with any run over the next 12 hours. the gfs is notorious for throwing up dream charts only to ditch them on the next run. while it's encouraging the ecm is on board, they too could easily show a downgrade on the next run. i've seen people salivate about charts over on netweather many times, only to throw their toys out of the pram when the next run wasn't nearly as good.

Very true. But even if this never comes off, its very exciting to see such amazing charts at under 96 hours, and with the GFS and ECM and some lesser models showing the same type of setup.

GFS ensembles will be interesting now to see what support the op had with this snowstorms, though have to keep in mind too that the ensembles are only half the resolution so not as accurate.

mickger844posts · 15-12-2010 11:49pm

nacho libre wrote: »

i hate to be a killjoy, but it can't be stressed enough that this potential snowstorm could get shifted over to England on the next run. so it is best not to get carried away with any run over the next 12 hours. the gfs is notorious for throwing up dream charts only to ditch them on the next run. while it's encouraging the ecm is on board, they too could easily show a downgrade on the next run. i've seen people salivate about charts over on netweather many times, only to throw their toys out of the pram when the next run wasn't nearly as good.

Always the voice of reason Nach, i agree with you to a certain extent but in fairness have we ever seen such amazing charts at 2 or 3 days out? You cant blame us for getting excited.

National: Cold spell Charts/ Media/ Forecasts (Strictly no chit-chat) (15/12/2010)

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