FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

piplip87 · 03-01-2021 11:07pm

Neddyusa wrote: »

Absolute bliss compared to normal Irish winter weather!

Able to walk the dogs in the morning and not require a full on clean of the house afterwards. The lovely winter sunshine long may it continue.

sicknotexi · 03-01-2021 11:29pm

Gfs para showing snowy conditons thursday night/friday morning.

Danno · 04-01-2021 12:54am

Something strange about that 18z output, a 965hPa "hurricane" with -25c uppers spawning out of nothing just north of Iceland next Saturday. Strange.

Kermit.de.frog · 04-01-2021 1:03am

Is there anything to be said for another mass?

pad199207 · 04-01-2021 1:05am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Is there anything to be said for another mass?

Pass the Valium when you’ve finished with it will ya...

JCX BXC · 04-01-2021 1:23am

That's a fairly bizzare run.

Just 4 hours until the 00Z

Mafra · 04-01-2021 12:18pm

Judging by the cobwebs accumulating on here this morning, I take it the news is not good..

Gonzo · 04-01-2021 3:30pm

Mafra wrote: »

Judging by the cobwebs accumulating on here this morning, I take it the news is not good..

not good if you want cold and snow. A definite warming trend sets in from this weekend and milder than average temperatures may return by the middle of next week with temperatures hitting 10 or 11C by the end of next week with +5 uppers at times. It does cool down slightly towards the end with a typical Atlantic north-west to south-east movement. Winter gets shoved well into eastern Europe and down into Greece and Turkey. However this is probably the sort of reset we need as we were getting nowhere fast with the current cold spell and hopefully we will be in with a shot of something proper in February.

US2 · 04-01-2021 3:57pm

Gonzo wrote: »

not good if you want cold and snow. A definite warming trend sets in from this weekend and milder than average temperatures may return by the middle of next week with temperatures hitting 10 or 11C by the end of next week with +5 uppers at times. It does cool down slightly towards the end with a typical Atlantic north-west to south-east movement. Winter gets shoved well into eastern Europe and down into Greece and Turkey. However this is probably the sort of reset we need as we were getting nowhere fast with the current cold spell and hopefully we will be in with a shot of something proper in February.

Great news for those of us who aren't fond of cold. Be great if we saw the last of the heavey frosts this week for the rest of the year. A February like 2019 would be lovely given the Covid restrictions.

gerrybhoy · 04-01-2021 4:02pm

US2 wrote: »

Great news for those of us who aren't fond of cold. Be great if we saw the last of the heavey frosts this week for the rest of the year. A February like 2019 would be lovely given the Covid restrictions.

nacho libre · 04-01-2021 4:19pm

Mafra wrote: »

Judging by the cobwebs accumulating on here this morning, I take it the news is not good..

Well, some places might see some snow on Thursday night into Friday. Longer term, it does look like it will get milder, but how mild is yet to be determined and for long.
If this SSW currently taking place does work in our favour in terms of bringing full on snow, it maybe anything from 10- 20 days before we see its effects on our weather. So perhaps the last week of January into Februray. It is often the case with a SSW there is a milder push before a cold reload, also given our location milder interludes often occur before cold returns- this happened even in historic cold spells. Indeed some notable cold spells only got going in late January into Feburary. So there are reasons to remain hopeful.

Kermit.de.frog · 04-01-2021 4:46pm

Baby steps...

We need to see more height rises toward and over GL.

pad199207 · 04-01-2021 4:47pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Baby steps...

We need to see more height rises toward and over GL.

Maybe that mass might work

Kermit.de.frog · 04-01-2021 4:48pm

US2 wrote: »

Great news for those of us who aren't fond of cold. Be great if we saw the last of the heavey frosts this week for the rest of the year. A February like 2019 would be lovely given the Covid restrictions.

:eek:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8r5e3LJa2RI

Nqp15hhu · 04-01-2021 6:13pm

The cold air next Friday appears to be back on.

Gonzo · 04-01-2021 6:28pm

probably best to take a break from the models over the next week and hopefully by then we will be in with somewhat more juicy looking charts and perhaps signs if the SSW affects us to any great degree or not. More low level cold for another week and then turning significantly milder from Thursday 15th of January, that is of course 10 days away and unreliable so much can happen between now and then.

I have a feeling this very mild 3rd week of January may not happen, we could find ourselves stuck in no man's land for a while before something definitive happens, either a full swing back to Atlantic and mild or some proper cold and wintry weather heading back our direction.

Humberto Salazar · 04-01-2021 6:31pm

Gonzo wrote: »

probably best to take a break from the models over the next week and hopefully by then we will be in with somewhat more juicy looking charts and perhaps signs if the SSW affects us to any great degree or not. More low level cold for another week and then turning significantly milder from Thursday 15th of January, that is of course 10 days away and unreliable so much can happen between now and then.

Definitely taking a break. GFS is back to a horror show, HP south of us, steering in drizzly southwesterlies for days on end. Good luck until end of Jan, at least.

bazlers · 04-01-2021 6:33pm

Gonzo wrote: »

probably best to take a break from the models over the next week and hopefully by then we will be in with somewhat more juicy looking charts and perhaps signs if the SSW affects us to any great degree or not. More low level cold for another week and then turning significantly milder from Thursday 15th of January, that is of course 10 days away and unreliable so much can happen between now and then.

I have a feeling this very mild 3rd week of January may not happen, we could find ourselves stuck in no man's land for a while before something definitive happens, either a full swing back to Atlantic and mild or some proper cold and wintry weather heading back our direction.

Gonzo there is a chart 3 posts up from the 12th

Gonzo · 04-01-2021 6:37pm

bazlers wrote: »

Gonzo there is a chart 3 posts up from the 12th

that's from the Icon and it is no great shakes either. It's 8 days away and a sliver of cold air brushes past us to the east and milder air from the Atlantic begins to take over much like the GFS.

Everything is generally moving west to east so that cold pool north-east of Iceland will end up sinking down over eastern Europe, possibly south-east Europe too.

nacho libre · 04-01-2021 6:57pm

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Definitely taking a break. GFS is back to a horror show, HP south of us, steering in drizzly southwesterlies for days on end. Good luck until end of Jan, at least.

You won't take a break, the temptation to keep looking is too great:p
I'm going to enjoy the cold and dry days left of this cold spell before a milder turn. Hopefully we'll will soon start seeing eye candy charts for the last week of January.

froog · 04-01-2021 7:07pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

The cold air next Friday appears to be back on.

The One Doctor · 04-01-2021 7:42pm

nacho libre wrote: »

You won't take a break, the temptation to keep looking is too great:p
I'm going to enjoy the cold and dry days left of this cold spell before a milder turn. Hopefully we'll will soon start seeing eye candy charts for the last week of January.

I sincerely hope there won't be cold or snow, this lockdown is going to get worse before it gets better.

nacho libre · 04-01-2021 7:48pm

The One Doctor wrote: »

I sincerely hope there won't be cold or snow, this lockdown is going to get worse before it gets better.

It's already cold, though. I know things are fairly bleak now, but i see more people out walking during the dry and cold days. Whereas as if we had the default pattern of wind and rain, i think some people might become even more frustrated than they currently might be

munsterlegend · 04-01-2021 8:18pm

nacho libre wrote: »

It's already cold, though. I know things are fairly bleak now, but i see more people out walking during the dry and cold days. Whereas as if we had the default pattern of wind and rain, i think some people might become even more frustrated than they currently might be

I think I’d nearly prefer the wet days for walking. Lethal the footpaths around here the last few days.

04-01-2021 8:19pm

That Met É commentary on the strat is very telling in that career meteorology juries are out still on what effect it might have
Given we have a a blocking pattern of sorts already ,it could end up jolting that blocking back into a mobile westerly pattern again especially if daughter lobes of the pv drop into America or the Atlantic
Theres every chance we end up with a Bartlet in that scenario,with the high drifting SE ,taking up residence in mainland Europe

Humberto Salazar · 04-01-2021 8:22pm

nacho libre wrote: »

You won't take a break, the temptation to keep looking is too great:p
I'm going to enjoy the cold and dry days left of this cold spell before a milder turn. Hopefully we'll will soon start seeing eye candy charts for the last week of January.

Already had a sneak peak at the T240 chart ECM. Felt guilty and shamed for giving in, and empty having seen it.

Humberto Salazar · 04-01-2021 8:24pm

AuntySnow wrote: »

That Met É commentary on the strat is very telling in that career meteorology juries are out still on what effect it might have
Given we have a a blocking pattern of sorts already ,it could end up jolting that blocking back into a mobile westerly pattern again especially if daughter lobes of the pv drop into America or the Atlantic
Theres every chance we end up with a Bartlet in that scenario,with the high drifting SE ,taking up residence in mainland Europe

The Bartlet word. We do not speak of this abomination.

munsterlegend · 04-01-2021 8:34pm

nacho libre wrote: »

It's already cold, though. I know things are fairly bleak now, but i see more people out walking during the dry and cold days. Whereas as if we had the default pattern of wind and rain, i think some people might become even more frustrated than they currently might be

I think I’d nearly prefer the wet days for walking. Lethal the footpaths around here the last few days.

crx=== · 04-01-2021 8:55pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Maybe that mass might work

Gonzo · 05-01-2021 3:03pm

if GFS verifies it won't be too long before we're back to normal service. Turns milder from this weekend, rather slack conditions next week and then the possibility of the Atlantic being back in business as we head into the final 10 days of January.

However there is also several GFS members going very cold again around the same time period with possibly more outliers going cold than there is for next week.

ens_image.php?geoid=64969&var=201&run=6&date=2021-01-05&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

ens_image.php?geoid=64969&var=201&run=6&date=2021-01-05&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

Billcarson · 05-01-2021 3:25pm

Our Januarys are like clockwork nowadays. They either start mild and remain mild or start off cold and the cold gives way shortly after to milder weather for the remainder of the month.
That's why my Hope's are pinned on Feb........

Gonzo · 05-01-2021 3:32pm

Billcarson wrote: »

Our Januarys are like clockwork nowadays. They either start mild and remain mild or start off cold and the cold gives way shortly after to milder weather for the remainder of the month.
That's why my Hope's are pinned on Feb........

ECM extended also going for a return of the Atlantic and shows a considerable weakening of the northern blocking on it's 6 week extended forecast models. It does appear none of these charts are factoring in the possible affects of the SSW further down the line. It will probably be February before we see a change to something colder again.

Billcarson · 05-01-2021 3:37pm

Gonzo wrote: »

ECM extended also going for a return of the Atlantic and shows a considerable weakening of the northern blocking on it's 6 week extended forecast models. It does appear none of these charts are factoring in the possible affects of the SSW further down the line. It will probably be February before we see a change to something colder again.

Yes and as I keep harping on about is the fact we haven't had a decent proper cold spell in second half of Jan since the 80s.

05-01-2021 3:37pm

Gonzo wrote: »

ECM extended also going for a return of the Atlantic and shows a considerable weakening of the northern blocking on it's 6 week extended forecast models. It does appear none of these charts are factoring in the possible affects of the SSW further down the line. It will probably be February before we see a change to something colder again.

In my experience, those postage stamp extended ecms are totally useless
Nearly always wrong

Gonzo · 05-01-2021 4:13pm

AuntySnow wrote: »

In my experience, those postage stamp extended ecms are totally useless
Nearly always wrong

after week 2 they rarely ever verify but do sometimes give a hint at what's to come. About a month ago the ECM postage stamps were showing this cold spell to stretch all the way from interior Siberia right across to Ireland and this did not happen. We've had a cold spell but a very weak one in terms of cold and lying snow has been mostly restricted to high ground above 500 meters.

05-01-2021 4:38pm

Gonzo wrote: »

after week 2 they rarely ever verify but do sometimes give a hint at what's to come. About a month ago the ECM postage stamps were showing this cold spell to stretch all the way from interior Siberia right across to Ireland and this did not happen. We've had a cold spell but a very weak one in terms of cold and lying snow has been mostly restricted to high ground above 500 meters.

Don't be pessimistic though on the 5th of January!
Our current cold spell is random
Let's see what a strat induced pv displacement or split brings in 2 or 3 weeks before getting pessimistic
Its quite the curve ball
It's either going to sink or swim

Reversal · 05-01-2021 6:58pm

Who's ready to be hurt again?

PokeHerKing · 05-01-2021 8:12pm

Reversal wrote: »

Who's ready to be hurt again?

CHOO CHOO, only 10 days to go!!

Gonzo · 05-01-2021 8:20pm

a definite sign of proper cold assembling to our north and north-east over the next 7 to 10 days as we try to get milder. This cold pool is something that we've been missing since the current cold spell began, so if we do get another cold spell over the next few weeks it could be easier for us to tap into considerably colder air than we are currently.

I have a feeling that either last week of January or 1st week of February is when we may have another go at trying to establish proper winter weather.

ens_image.php?geoid=64969&var=201&run=99&date=2021-01-04&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

ens_image.php?geoid=64969&var=201&run=99&date=2021-01-04&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

The GFS extended is hinting at another possible cold spell around this time towards February. Some of the colder outliers are bordering on extreme freezer.

sicknotexi · 05-01-2021 8:22pm

ECM ended interestingly at 240 hours. Sorry not able to link screenshot. Let's hope it's the precursor to some boom charts in the coming weeks.

nacho libre · 05-01-2021 8:29pm

According to the ECM The Siberan express is at the Station on Mainland Europe awaiting the signal to head this way in 10 days time

Reversal · 05-01-2021 8:32pm

Tonight's ECM shows how the reset could help get us out of this rut. Vortex displaced across the Atlantic giving us a mobile phase but moves through to Siberia/Scandinavia. This rids us of the Ural high that has served to keep proper cold out of Europe so far.

And once the energy moves through the Atlantic, the ECM wants another bout of amplification towards Greenland;
6034073

Meanwhile the real beast marches west;
6034073

No guarantees obviously. But this type of evolution seems more promising compared to what felt like forcing an unsuitable set up with out current cold spell. One to watch while the wind and rain is back.

Darwin · 05-01-2021 8:33pm

Starkly different view of things between the main models this evening out in FI. ECM keeping the high over us and potentially incoming cold from the East at 240 hours, GFS has the atlantic kicking the door down and zonality all the way. Seems to be a bit of role reversal going on between these two models.

Neddyusa · 06-01-2021 1:04am

Darwin wrote: »

Starkly different view of things between the main models this evening out in FI. ECM keeping the high over us and potentially incoming cold from the East at 240 hours, GFS has the atlantic kicking the door down and zonality all the way. Seems to be a bit of role reversal going on between these two models.

Is Atlantic kicking-the-door-down-zonality not just default FI GFS though?

Darwin · 06-01-2021 8:57am

Nah, GFS usually teases with winter wonderland eye candy this time of year..

bazlers · 06-01-2021 9:08am

Neddyusa wrote: »

Is Atlantic kicking-the-door-down-zonality not just default FI GFS though?

I think what we will get next next week is an interlude. Hopfully a little push from the north east after that will continue that momentum. Although the models will say one thing and the weather might not want to play ball at that range anyhow.

One positive note is the cold will be in place in scandi and much of europe then i would imagine. If we are looking east for our weather by then metre sticks at the ready for depths of snow. No cheating now level area and keep it straight ; )

Alot of ifs and buts as always there but we may see the sneachta at our doorsteps tonight. Looking forward to seeing how this goes.

nacho libre · 06-01-2021 1:19pm

More signs of impacts from the SSW on the GFS Para in FI, it shows the cold to the east knocking at the door, but it might be England's door instead of ours. I really hope this is not the case as it reflects the UK Met Office long range. I suppose looking on the bright side that colder air could make it way here eventually.

Harry Palmr · 06-01-2021 1:28pm

I've stopped taking any serious notice of the GFS, ECM has been much more reliable for months, and it has the advantage of not extending into F1 territory thus not setting up false hopes/fears/expectation.

nacho libre · 06-01-2021 2:21pm

Harry Palmr wrote: »

I've stopped taking any serious notice of the GFS, ECM has been much more reliable for months, and it has the advantage of not extending into F1 territory thus not setting up false hopes/fears/expectation.

The ECM has better verification stats overall, but the GFS was the first to suggest a milder turn towards mid month when other models were less inclined to. It does spot trends sometimes, so it is interesting to see the para version running with this over the last couple of runs. Also that it maybe reflective of the thinking of the UK Met Office long range forecast. I think we are long enough in the game not to take any fi runs too seriously.

Gonzo · 06-01-2021 2:30pm

GFS playing around with the idea of cold for end of January. This is very much a cold outlier, the GFS operational is almost on it's own with this one. Gets the -9 uppers over Leinster and -10 through the UK.

a few of the other runs are trying to have a go too. If this was to come off it would be likely a good deal colder than the spell we are experiencing now.

All the runs are fairly consistent at having large reserves of severe cold to our north and north-east just waiting to be tapped into. It could be a few weeks before we tap into the cold again but at least next time their should be much better source of cold air to tap into as long as we get a fairly direct hit.

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST