FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

nacho libre

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Can confirm it was mostly a slush fest when I lived in east Anglia. It actually snowed about 5 times a winter (didn’t lie) but was mostly around 8-12c. Contrast that to here where we pretty much have periodic cold spells each winter month and are guaranteed at least a few days of snow cover.

They always say it’s colder there than Northern Ireland but we get far more snow.

I remember being at a ice sculpture competition near the Thames during an easterly back in 2012, it felt colder than most easterlies i've experienced here. As you say though, it's definitely not the place to be if you like to see snow regularly. In my time there I saw sod all snow.

Oneiric 3

nacho libre wrote: »

I remember being at a ice sculpture competition near the Thames during an easterly back in 2012, it felt colder than most easterlies i've experienced here. As you say though, it's definitely not the place to be if you like to see snow regularly. In my time there I saw sod all snow.

I have lived in both Manchester (born there) and S. Yorks, and there is world of difference between both climates. Yorkshire much better for snow than here, but Manchester is even worse.

circadian

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I have lived in both Manchester (born there) and S. Yorks, and there is world of difference between both climates. Yorkshire much better for snow than here, but Manchester is even worse.

Yeah I've lived around those areas too, Huddersfield/Halifax in particular always yielded great snow being in the Pennines and all that.



Manchester despite being a great city, the weather was more often than not muck of the highest order.

Gonzo

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I have lived in both Manchester (born there) and S. Yorks, and there is world of difference between both climates. Yorkshire much better for snow than here, but Manchester is even worse.

Manchester still does better than most of Ireland tho, certainly Dublin for snow in winter and warmth in the summer.

Slashermcguirk

The weather in Manchester is very grim, certainly the times I was there. Glasgow is utterly horrendous. Never stops raining. While the Scottish highlands get a lot of snow I was surprised how little proper snow Glasgow and Edinburgh get.

quote="circadian;115757886"]Yeah I've lived around those areas too, Huddersfield/Halifax in particular always yielded great snow being in the Pennines and all that.



Manchester despite being a great city, the weather was more often than not muck of the highest order.[/quote]

Slashermcguirk

Not sure about that, Manchester gets little snow and their summers are definitely not good by any stretch. During a heat wave maybe but that’s more the south east east of England. Manchester has a miserable climate. They average over 900 mm of rain annually, Dublin closer to 700mm average.

That’s not to say Dublin has a good climate! It’s better than many parts of UK though. Scotland and northern half of England have abysmal weather,

Gonzo wrote: »

Manchester still does better than most of Ireland tho, certainly Dublin for snow in winter and warmth in the summer.

Oneiric 3

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

they average over 900 mm of rain annually, Dublin closer to 700mm average.

,

Most of Ireland averages over 1000mm.

Gonzo is partly right. Manchester can occasionally get a skim of those SE England heatwaves, but all in all, it's climate is very similar to ours on a day by day basis (it's practically an Irish city anyway!)

Donegal Storm

I've never really been but I would have thought Dublin gets better summers than Manchester, looking at wikipedia they seem broadly comparable though, Manchester slightly warmer but Dublin drier so I'd probably take Dublin as the better.

I lived in SE England for a few years as well and saw next to no snow, winters aren't as miserable as we get in Ireland but they're deathly boring, just endless cloud and the odd day of light rain

TheMilkyPirate

This is a technical discussion thread for FI models. I and am sure a lot more have no interest in whether the Manchester or South Yorkshire climate is more conductive to snow.

Gonzo

ok back to the discussion of charts, the GFS 12z has just begun rolling, so let's see what this brings over the next 90 minutes.

Donegal Storm

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

This is a technical discussion thread for FI models. I and am sure a lot more have no interest in whether Manchester or South Yorkshires climate is more conductive to snow.

Indeed it is! Nothing too interesting on the models though, great synoptics in a normal winter with a blocked Atlantic and persistent northerlies & easterlies but there's just no cold air to draw from anywhere within a thousand miles

And looking at the bigger picture, the PV lobe currently over Canada looks set to migrate towards Siberia so it looks like we'll be fighting over scraps rather than seeing any deep cold spell in the next while

Slashermcguirk

Yes but Dublin has a better and drier climate than Manchester. I was referring to Dublin specifically but west / south west of Ireland certainly wetter

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Most of Ireland averages over 1000mm.

Gonzo is partly right. Manchester can occasionally get a skim of those SE England heatwaves, but all in all, it's climate is very similar to ours on a day by day basis (it's practically an Irish city anyway!)

ninebeanrows

Gonzo wrote: »

ok back to the discussion of charts, the GFS 12z has just begun rolling, so let's see what this brings over the next 90 minutes.

If those uppers with the east, northeast flow can drop a few degrees will be crucial,

-6,-7 just aint enough, -8,-9 is a different ball game.

Slashermcguirk

I think looking towards mid January, it looks very promising

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Indeed it is! Nothing too interesting on the models though, great synoptics in a normal winter with a blocked Atlantic and persistent northerlies & easterlies but there's just no cold air to draw from anywhere within a thousand miles

And looking at the bigger picture, the PV lobe currently over Canada looks set to migrate towards Siberia so it looks like we'll be fighting over scraps rather than seeing any deep cold spell in the next while

Gonzo

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

If those uppers with the east, northeast flow can drop a few degrees will be crucial,

-6,-7 just aint enough, -8,-9 is a different ball game.

I don't feel totally comfortable with an easterly until we start to see the -10 uppers appearing very close to us or over us. Anything below -8C is usually marginal with rain near the coasts.

Kermit.de.frog

All the models have the "trigger" low here in common to our northwest around 144 hrs.

Seems to all hinge on how that is going to drop. I guess having it drop right down over us is probably the best path. We absolutely don't want it too far west. We could do with a lowering of pressure over western Russia as well.





UKMO probably best for us so far.

Kermit.de.frog

This is how we want that to evolve...the low pressure slipping south smartly and an easterly flow in it's wake much more potent



Actually GEM above (never too far away from ECM) is carrying a lot of cold air and snow with that system.

Afterward the beast is on track...

Gonzo

GEM goes with a dusting in most places by the 10th of January. Hopefully this will upgrade more closer to the time.



GFS goes for a low to moderate covering across the eastern half of Ireland by the same day.

Artane2002

this is just a single perturbation and almost certainly an outlier so not to be taken seriously at all but WOW

Gonzo

Artane2002 wrote: »

this is just a single perturbation and almost certainly an outlier so not to be taken seriously at all but WOW

yeah it's absolutely on it's own, -18 uppers across the country, about as likely as +20 uppers in August. Majority of the models are between 0C and -8C.

Kermit.de.frog

Good ECM so far. Increasing risk of snow showers in the east next week particularly around Tuesday.

Snowbiee21

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Good ECM so far. Increasing risk of snow showers in the east next week particularly around Tuesday.

Into the freezer😉

Humberto Salazar

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Into the freezer😉

It's good around Tuesday but less cold Wednesday. And the old problem of no deep cold continues. It's locked up there way up in Greenland, not much over Scandi and E Europe. SSW remains the hope. Still out of range of ECM so far.

Villain

ECM is trying to open the freezer door! Will it succeed?

ninebeanrows

Villain wrote: »

ECM is trying to open the freezer door! Will it succeed?

Did you just jinx it?:P

Humberto Salazar

Villain wrote: »

ECM is trying to open the freezer door! Will it succeed?

I think we'd better bin this run.... Big low to the NW at 216. Can't be right surely?

Villain

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Did you just jinx it?:P

Haha! Looks like it, very odd end to that run but just goes to show how FI can go.

ninebeanrows

Villain wrote: »

Haha! Looks like it, very odd end to that run but just goes to show how FI can go.

Ironically the 240hr chart would give a dump of snow to Carlow

froog

so am i right in saying "uppers" or the higher elevation weather is the key to all weather? i.e. it's where forecasting begins?

Gonzo

uppers not great on that ECM, mostly holding between -3 and -6C, gets to -7C briefly and a mild end.