FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Slashermcguirk

Scandinavia is cooling down. Oslo and inland from there heading towards day time temps around -5 to -10. Middle and upper Sweden really cooling down too between -10 to -15 by day. Those figures were closer to 0 and even above 0 some days last week. Would like to see Eastern Europe colder though.

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

It's good around Tuesday but less cold Wednesday. And the old problem of no deep cold continues. It's locked up there way up in Greenland, not much over Scandi and E Europe. SSW remains the hope. Still out of range of ECM so far.

Nqp15hhu

froog wrote: »

so am i right in saying "uppers" or the higher elevation weather is the key to all weather? i.e. it's where forecasting begins?

It’s a guide. You need to look at soundings to see if there is a warm layer.

sicknotexi

I'm encouraged that both the Met Office and ECM give colder uppers for a few days next week. Wouldnt worry as much with the ECM going off on one at the end of the run. Better to have decent cold synoptic nearer the time and a breakdown in FI than constantly chasing day 10 charts.

Gonzo

Gonzo wrote: »

uppers not great on that ECM, mostly holding between -3 and -6C, gets to -7C briefly and a mild end.

Actually - 8 uppers visit us in about 5 days time on tonight's ECM, just tipping any precipitation to the right side of marginal at that time
YOU can take a couple of things out of tonight's ECM
First is that it's showing beyond 144 for the first time in this period of model watching a route back to Atlantic dominated weather
Or that beyond 144 is FI, so like the other big two Especially with the giant curve ball of strat warming, pv displacement/splits entering the mix, its wrong

For the past week, I've not been expecting the Atlantic to unblock for a few weeks
So we'll have to see how things unfold or what's made of the low from the northwest
If it kills off our atlantic high and any hope of a Greenland high or northern blocking, there's no point looking northeast or east anymore
By my reckoning, give or take Modeling up to 120hrs has been good lately
Beyond that it's been iffy
We'll know more by this time tomorrow or at least if there's a spanner in the works
I'm not expecting there will be

Meteorite58

Liking the lack of rain for the western side of the country out until next weekend, not completely dry of course but a break from all the Atlantic LP's . Lots of cold weather for sure and plenty of frosty nights. Will be interesting to see how the NE'lys , Ely's play out during next week, looks like weather from the NW close to or over next weekend at some stage, will have to see how cold it is and what track the system and fronts take, a long way off yet.

nacho libre

Well the good news is some places could see snow next week.
The bad news is some of the models seem to be converging on the idea of a west- based NAO further on. We just have to hope this is just another example of variability before they get a handle on the ssw, but the one worry i have is we've seen a west based nao suggested a few times in the last 8 -9 days by the GFS. Let's hope if it does in fact turn out that way, it's a temporary thing.
Hopefully the next GFS pub run shows -12 uppers over us!

Snowbiee21

nacho libre wrote: »

Well the good news is some places could see snow next week.
The bad news is some of the models seem to be converging on the idea of a west- based NAO further on. We just have to hope this is just another example of variability before they get a handle on the ssw, but the one worry i have is we've seen a west based nao suggested a few times in the last 8 -9 days by the GFS. Let's hope if it does in fact turn out that way, it's a temporary thing.
Hopefully the next GFS pub run shows -12 uppers over us!

Agree, West based Nao gaining some consistency on the models the last few days.

Nqp15hhu

Met office gives me highs of 3/4c for the next few days beyond tomorrow. That’s crisp enough and should mean close to freezing on the hill tops.

I will take that.

Jin luk

What time will the next charts be out?

This is getting orgasmic looking at these 😅

JanuarySnowstor

Amazing how Met Eireann make the outlook sound so boring. Surely we are on the cusp yet all they can say is cold and dry. Cold and dry is slap bang under a hp

Rougies

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Amazing how Met Eireann make the outlook sound so boring. Surely we are on the cusp yet all they can say is cold and dry. Cold and dry is slap bang under a hp

Their outlook looks pretty accurate to me, cold and mostly dry apart from wintry showers. There may be more significant Irish Sea streamers next week, but they are difficult to forecast, and anything beyond that is lala land at the moment.

Snowbiee21

...

BLIZZARD7

On the 18z GFS the 850hpa temps look cold enough (sub -7c) to me for likely mainly all snow Irish sea streamers next week, particularly later on as the pressure drops.

Great run overall so far...

Snowbiee21

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

On the 18z GFS the 850hpa temps look cold enough (sub -7c) to me for likely mainly all snow Irish sea streamers next week, particularly later on as the pressure drops.

Great run overall so far...

Yes looking okay, I’d say you’d need a few k away from coasts. Increased chances the more inland you are.

Roots 2020

Good snowfall for many today.

I'm confident it won't be just higher ground but all will see snow in January, February 2021.

Hope all who want snow have some.

Happy New Year everyone!

Artane2002

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Yes looking okay, I’d say you’d need a few k away from coasts. Increased chances the more inland you are.

coastal Dublin/north Wicklow could get some snow showers according to that run, dewpoints are at or under 0c in those areas, dewpoints must be zero or under if it is going to snow. I'd guess southwest Dublin/Kildare are the sweet spots on that run.

this may be my last post of the year so happy new year to everyone!

bazlers

Happy New Year all. Wont be long until 3" of snow will be yawned upon : )

pad199207

Artane2002 wrote: »

coastal Dublin/north Wicklow could get some snow showers according to that run, dewpoints are at or under 0c in those areas, dewpoints must be zero or under if it is going to snow. I'd guess southwest Dublin/Kildare are the sweet spots on that run.

this may be my last post of the year so happy new year to everyone!

The good old N7 Corridor

Meteorite58

GFS 18Z as complex as you can get. Showing a lot of wintry precipitation from around next Thurs into the weekend for a wide part of the country. The last couple of runs showing some weather from the NW with plenty of cold air about. ECM also showing weather from the N to the NW and plenty cold and showing wintry conditions/ snow potential for a wider part of the country next weekend. Just to be taken as hints of something at this stage I suppose.

Oh and Happy New Year !!

Kermit.de.frog

Happy new year everyone! It will happen (next week)! :cool:




Goodbye 2020

leahyl

Happy New Year to everyone on the weather forum, particularly those whose names I like to see pop up regularly on the FI threads during the winter cos it can quite often mean that a certain type of weather could be on the way ;-) hope 2021 is good to you all!

TTLF

Happy 2021 to everyone on the FI thread! It's fun reading all the FI trends and It makes me happy being kept up to date!

Meteorite58

Towards the end of next week into the weekend continues to look wintry for a greater part of the country according to the ECM, holding it's general pattern and timing on this mornings 0Z, GFS shows the Atlantic block having more of an affect, still opportunities for wintry weather but ECM shows more. Gem similar to the ECM initially but shows the blocking High movie in from the W as the weekend goes on.

Cork2021

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Towards the end of next week into the weekend continues to look wintry for a greater part of the country according to the ECM, holding it's general pattern and timing on this mornings 0Z, GFS shows the Atlantic block having more of an affect, still opportunities for wintry weather but ECM shows more. Gem similar to the ECM initially but shows the blocking High movie in from the W as the weekend goes on.

Looking at Windy.com (I know not the most accurate) this morning large parts of the country are looking at significant snowfall especially Kerry/Cork!

Meteorite58

Cork2021 wrote: »

Looking at Windy.com (I know not the most accurate) this morning large parts of the country are looking at significant snowfall especially Kerry/Cork!

There are hints of that all right but I'd hate to start a rumour

But just to show how fickle the charts are, the GFS was showing this the last run but not on this mornings. Will have to see over the next couple of days if the ECM continues to show the potential.

Kermit.de.frog

Can't complain about the ECM. Plenty of snow opportunities there. Kinda mixed potential across the other models.

Gonzo

not liking any of the GFS runs over the past two days, all the GFS runs basically bring the Atlantic back and milder weather around the 12th/13th January. ECM still has us on the cold side of the blocking up to 11th of January and looks to be the most promising of all the models GEM stays cold till about the 11th and signs that the mild and Atlantic will break through after that.

Hopefully we see a continuation of the ECM holding the wintry conditions and the GFS/GEM delaying the return of the Atlantic on further runs over this weekend and into next week.

JanuarySnowstor

Yes we could do with a couple of upgrade runs tbh
This time last week we were looking at a very wintry start to 21 yet let's be honest it's dry and cold and nothing out of the ordinary.
As is the case quite often the coldest charts seem to remain at +7 days

Having said all of that we are very much in the draw this month and it wouldn't take much of an upgrade to relight the fire! Let's hope those upgrades come this evening!!

Mount Vesuvius

I agree Gonzo. I actually think the SSW is needed to help reverse that siberian cold pool on a course for us. Even just to nudge it closer over more of Europe would be fine as the cold would still leak towards us and still be -10 850hpa at least.

What we are experiencing now is good for cooling down the surrounding waters and thus will limit marine interference even if we don't get very low airmass over us.

Models will not be picking up this huge SSW shock yet. Maybe another week before we see them catch on to it on a surface level.

nacho libre

I've read that the ECM has a better handle on the impacts of an SSW than the GFS. Although, as has been said, maybe no model has it right just yet. It could be 4 or five days before we get a better idea of the fallout from one. It looks to be a displacement now, with a split possible later on.
I may have it wrong, but i believe 2 out of 3 SSW work in our favour.
Even if the worst case scenario does occur further on, over the course of the next seven days some parts of the country have a good chance of seeing snow. I already got more snow than i expected a couple of nights ago, and i don't live on high ground either. We are in a lot better position than this time last year.