FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Kermit.de.frog

Bank

Cork2021

sryanbruen wrote: »

The 18z must have known about the coming level 5 restrictions and stocked up early because we yet again have another run on crack..

It’s gaining consistency though

YanSno

18z keeps on giving, easterly followed by northerly and back to north easterly.

pad199207

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Bank

Tomorrow it will be the 13th January

Snowbiee21

pad199207 wrote: »

Tomorrow it will be the 13th January

15th..

Kermit.de.frog

Great, hoping for more tomorrow :cool:

NMB

So what are we looking at here lads ? The forecast is definitely in flux, but are we looking at a potential multiple week cold spell with diverse location intermittent heavy snow falls? The charts have been phenomenal and yeah it's great to be cautious and yes we've all been burnt even as close as 48 hours out. But lads is it possible in our maritime island climate to actually see a real winter season this time? I'm looking at the info available now and never mind the past letdowns - I've never seen such promise ever.

Gonzo

another fantastic GFS run, very different from the two previous runs with much more northerly based cold and some easterlies. The mild air is kept well to our south throughout the entire run. The very end of the run has an intense cold pool building over northern Scandinavia, the sort of cold that is nowhere to be seen right now. Would be nice to tap into that cold pool in the second half of January.

nacho libre

sryanbruen wrote: »

The 18z must have known about the coming level 5 restrictions and stocked up early because we yet again have another run on crack..

This inter run variability is starting do my head in. I should know better at this stage. It would be great if we soon started to see the cross model consensus and consistency we had in the run up to the 2018 beasterly

Artane2002

the GEFS 18z mean is strikingly similar to the op run

munsterlegend

nacho libre wrote: »

This inter run variability is starting do my head in. I should know better at this stage. It would be great if we soon started to see the cross model consensus and consistency we had in the run up to the 2018 beasterly

This SSW will probably wreck the whole thing knowing our luck.

Kermit.de.frog

Some crackers among the ensembles - some more benign.

Happy enough. Potentially really interesting times ahead.

Gonzo

and wetterzentrale back to loading problems, must be alot of people throughout the UK and Ireland checking out the pub run!

BLIZZARD7

The latter frames of the GFS 18z have the main chunk of the polar vortex migrating down over Scandi on a South East trajectory... any height rises to our North west at that point would send us into really extreme territory in terms of depth of cold (And Snow)... interesting to think about for fun but it's not likely to evolve just like that in any case.

It's a pretty epic run in the more reliable time frames, we edge closer to mid-winter nirvana...

BLIZZARD7

nacho libre wrote: »

This inter run variability is starting do my head in. I should know better at this stage. It would be great if we soon started to see the cross model consensus and consistency we had in the run up to the 2018 beasterly

The projected strat events causing havoc no doubt, don't expect clarity for a few days yet at minimum. The models always struggle when a really extreme pattern is in the offing... let's just hope we are on the right side of things.

BLIZZARD7

GFS 00z has gone down a different route to the 18z, reverse zonality with Ireland staying in the cold air. Huge snow potential at times with constant low pressure in FI, perhaps a bit marginal at times right on the east coast but it then goes on to drag proper cold 850hpa temps in from the North east again... only thing I don't like is its attempts to raise heights over Iberia again, I would rather the 18z setup.





UKMO looks very good to me at +120hrs and +144hrs...

BLIZZARD7

ECM 0z is insane, I much prefer it to the GFS 0z. So rare to see such blocking and complete lack of PV on this side of the hemisphere. Russian deep cold to start backing west after this as the SSW starts to really impact the trop...



January is looking really interesting...This run is cold and blocked throughout

Humberto Salazar

ECM in FI back on track at least, easterly flow maintained, decent upper temps, with wintry precipitation risk enhanced. Colder air over Scandinavia and NE Europe, we need to tap into that for cold spell longevity. Next 2 or 3 runs will map this out if it happens. So we're still looking at mid Jan real potential. Still cold in the short term too.

Kermit.de.frog

So just had a look through...

Reckless Abandonment

That ECM is a beauty at day 10..

Jin luk

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

GFS 00z has gone down a different route to the 18z, reverse zonality with Ireland staying in the cold air. Huge snow potential at times with constant low pressure in FI, perhaps a bit marginal at times right on the east coast but it then goes on to drag proper cold 850hpa temps in from the North east again... only thing I don't like is its attempts to raise heights over Iberia again, I would rather the 18z setup.





UKMO looks very good to me at +120hrs and +144hrs...

Glorious

Artane2002

shocking overnight runs, but the good kind of shocking! the UKMO is my go-to model for now though, it's been more reliable than the ECM and GFS and believe it or not, the GEM has been verifying better than the GFS and isn't that far off the ECM.

Slashermcguirk

Those charts......loss of composure in 3....2....1......

torres9kop

If those charts happen what would we expect on the east coast? Light dusting or disruptive snow?

Kermit.de.frog

That netweather forum is gas. I haven't been there in a while. Toys go out of the pram very quickly if things are not looking as good temporarily for mostly southeast England. It's not a passing "ah it won't snow, oh well", it seems to be full blown depression sometimes! Rinse/repeat every 6 hours.

Was going to post but was reminded of why I really couldn't be bothered. Still plenty of informative posts though in between.

nacho libre

As M.T. Cranium once described it, there could be a snowstorm on the way, yet some Netweather posters will have you believe nothing of note is going to happen because it's not in their back yard. It must be difficult if you are new to that forum and don't know which poster to pay heed to. It's good to see that all the main models are showing something colder occurring. As Blizzard 7 said the GFS looks very snowy at times, but if Heights rise in Iberia that makes it more difficult to sustain a cold out break longer term.
If the ECM were to verify we might eventually see uppers that don't often pay a visit to us coming here. It's safe to to say the use of the word marginal would disappear from the forum for a while.

Slashermcguirk

South east England is poxy for snow in fairness, further north much better. My friend is 5 years in London and he said it pretty much never snows, even in 2018 they got nowhere near the snow we got. I think York and further north gets more obviously. South and south west England also rarely get snow.

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

That netweather forum is gas. I haven't been there in a while. Toys go out of the pram very quickly if things are not looking as good temporarily for mostly southeast England. It's not a passing "ah it won't snow, oh well", it seems to be full blown depression sometimes! Rinse/repeat every 6 hours.

Was going to post but was reminded of why I really couldn't be bothered. Still plenty of informative posts though in between.

Nqp15hhu

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

That netweather forum is gas. I haven't been there in a while. Toys go out of the pram very quickly if things are not looking as good temporarily for mostly southeast England. It's not a passing "ah it won't snow, oh well", it seems to be full blown depression sometimes! Rinse/repeat every 6 hours.

Was going to post but was reminded of why I really couldn't be bothered. Still plenty of informative posts though in between.

I was thinking they should have an England and Wales model forum and one for the rest. I have noticed in the past them talking about mild weather, while we are having snow/cold weather here.

Nqp15hhu

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

South east England is poxy for snow in fairness, further north much better. My friend is 5 years in London and he said it pretty much never snows, even in 2018 they got nowhere near the snow we got. I think York and further north gets more obviously. South and south west England also rarely get snow.

Can confirm it was mostly a slush fest when I lived in east Anglia. It actually snowed about 5 times a winter (didn’t lie) but was mostly around 8-12c. Contrast that to here where we pretty much have periodic cold spells each winter month and are guaranteed at least a few days of snow cover.

They always say it’s colder there than Northern Ireland but we get far more snow.

Nqp15hhu

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

South east England is poxy for snow in fairness, further north much better. My friend is 5 years in London and he said it pretty much never snows, even in 2018 they got nowhere near the snow we got. I think York and further north gets more obviously. South and south west England also rarely get snow.

Northern and NW Northern Ireland does better for snow than most of England aside from maybe Newcastle.