Storm Desmond - High Winds 4/5 December 2015

Chris_5339762 · 03-12-2015 9:30pm

Compared to vanilla GFS (12z anyway) I would have thought totals on the west coast would be quite a bit higher than that.

shmaupel · 03-12-2015 9:32pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Rainfall totals up to 12pm Saturday as forecast by HIRLAM. The high totals in the east include today's forecast totals.

That '53mm' is pretty much exactly where I live.

Just got my weather station back up and running yesterday so will be interested to see how the rainfall mounts up.

Edited to add: we've had zero rainfall today btw

maquiladora · 03-12-2015 9:37pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Rainfall totals up to 12pm Saturday as forecast by HIRLAM. The high totals in the east include today's forecast totals.

Interesting to see the difference on the models. Euro4 more than double that in places by the same time.

Rock Lesnar · 03-12-2015 9:43pm

corsav6 wrote: »

I'm a bit nervous about the weekend now. SW winds are funnelled through the landscape and really pack a punch, we're fairly sheltered from other directions.
Rainfall around Newport has been unreal in the last few weeks, not sure how much more we can take before the stream running down our land starts coming onto the driveway.
Our driveway has chippings and is at a steep angle so every few months we need to cover it again. Since the start of the month it's become nearly undrivable, there's a large pile of chippings at the bottom and ridges created by the water flowing down.

Sorry for the long post.
Tldr: pissed off with all the rain.

I live at the bottom of a hill with a pond about 50 yards away from us, the pond is now full so our drainage pipes are useless now and its backing back up into our site, our neighbour got flooded earlier, ours didnt but the house looks like its sitting in a moat, i am not looking forward to the weekend

Oneiric 3 · 03-12-2015 9:50pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Interesting to see the difference on the models. Euro4 more than double that in places by the same time.

I'd not discount either as both are pretty good at given a general overview of rainfall totals. I think during the last wet spell in early Nov, Euro4 tended closer to the mark for here locally at least, but at the same time, can overdo totals too. A conundrum

Villain · 03-12-2015 10:29pm

Siobhan just said we could see a Red Warning coming!

JCX BXC · 03-12-2015 10:30pm

Villain wrote: »

Siobhan just said we could see a Red Warning coming!

For wind?

leahyl · 03-12-2015 10:30pm

Some forecast from Siobhan just now!

fred funk }{ · 03-12-2015 10:32pm

Met just mentioned a possibility of a red alert.

JanuarySnowstor · 03-12-2015 10:34pm

A bit ott I thought.
My wise old years I've seen many a situation where Met Eireann react to conditions rather than predict.
I stated last night that today would see exceptional rainfall which we did
The next few days looks more normal stuff to me.
Yes it will add to totals but in general shouldn't be disruptive with a period of low tides coinciding.

As for a possible red warning........no cigar!

km79 · 03-12-2015 10:37pm

leahyl wrote: »

Some forecast from Siobhan just now!

What did she say ?

Chris_5339762 · 03-12-2015 10:38pm

Sheer volume of rain forecast for the west coast could trigger a red in places, I reckon.

Cancelled my trip to Cork on Saturday on account of likely conditions. No point facing a long drive if its going to be dangerous.

maquiladora · 03-12-2015 10:39pm

Carnacalla wrote: »

For wind?

I would guess for rainfall since models like the Euro4 are showing around 80-100mm over 24 hours in places in the west. Red warning criteria is 70+ in 24 hours.
Met Eireann don't use Euro4 but perhaps their hi-res models are showing potential for something similar now?

Hooter23 · 03-12-2015 10:39pm

There was alot more emphasis on the heavy rain than the winds on the forecast with such a prolonged period of heavy rain and strong winds it wont take much to bring down trees not surprised there was mention of a red warning...

downwiththatsor · 03-12-2015 10:42pm

maquiladora wrote: »

I would guess for rainfall since models like the Euro4 are showing around 80-100mm over 24 hours in places in the west. Red warning criteria is 70+ in 24 hours.
Met Eireann don't use Euro4 but perhaps their hi-res models are showing potential for something similar now?

What time does the latest Euro4 roll out next maq?

northgirl · 03-12-2015 10:43pm

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

Sheer volume of rain forecast for the west coast could trigger a red in places, I reckon.

Cancelled my trip to Cork on Saturday on account of likely conditions. No point facing a long drive if its going to be dangerous.

The roads in Cork City are in total sh*te today, lots of flooding (not as bad as parts of the East by all accounts) but if there's more on the way it's not going to be pleasant

maquiladora · 03-12-2015 10:43pm

downwiththatsor wrote: »

What time does the latest Euro4 roll out next maq?

In a couple of hours.

Oneiric 3 · 03-12-2015 10:45pm

Have to say, Siobhan Ryan seemed quite grave about the situation in her forecast after the nine news. She spoke about a possible 'Red' warning being issued for tomorrow night and Saturday.

Villain · 03-12-2015 10:49pm

Yes she mentioned up to 100mm of rainfall which would warrant a Red warning imo

Iancar29 · 03-12-2015 10:55pm

Its gonna be a long haul for people living areas prone to strong SW winds!

JanuarySnowstor · 03-12-2015 10:55pm

I'm uncertain what model is suggesting 100 mm of rain

2 inches tops looks the bulk of it to me and that's spread over 2-3 days
If we keep issuing red alerts the public will get complacent and when a REAL event comes along won't listen

JCX BXC · 03-12-2015 10:58pm

Based on what I've seen over the past few hours, I'm not going to have fun here in wide open west clare.

Weatherproof79 · 03-12-2015 11:01pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I'm uncertain what model is suggesting 100 mm of rain

2 inches tops looks the bulk of it to me and that's spread over 2-3 days
If we keep issuing red alerts the public will get complacent and when a REAL event comes along won't listen

Euro 4 if you read back over you'll see it. And it's up 12pm Saturday from when the rain starts tomorrow so it's within a 24hr period. Real weather indeed if your house gets flooded

Tactical · 03-12-2015 11:04pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

Its gonna be a long haul for people living areas prone to strong SW winds!

Lurvly

I'm well exposed, fun times

Oneiric 3 · 03-12-2015 11:06pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I'm uncertain what model is suggesting 100 mm of rain

2 inches tops looks the bulk of it to me and that's spread over 2-3 days
If we keep issuing red alerts the public will get complacent and when a REAL event comes along won't listen

Even if this was the case, it is concerning. Heavy winds and driving rain that will not only make outdoor activites 'challenging' to say the least, but this rain is falling on near or totally saturated ground. Add to this that ever drop of rain that is going to fall will be going nowhere -- fast, because RH values will be high, leading to minimal evaporation rates. Even a spell of light rain under such conditions can lead to some local flooding, such as flooded roads, driveways and fields etc.

Chris_5339762 · 03-12-2015 11:06pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Interesting to see the difference on the models. Euro4 more than double that in places by the same time.

Whats also interesting about that is 127mm for a part of Scotland and 153mm for a bit of Norway too...

Padster90s · 03-12-2015 11:07pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I'm uncertain what model is suggesting 100 mm of rain

2 inches tops looks the bulk of it to me and that's spread over 2-3 days
If we keep issuing red alerts the public will get complacent and when a REAL event comes along won't listen

There's been 2 red alerts. The first one Darwin was a very real event. I was stuck in the middle of it watching people hang on to lamp posts in Limerick! The second was Rachel, which thankfully wasn't as severe as predicted.
Two red alerts isn't excessive.

maquiladora · 03-12-2015 11:11pm

One bit of good news (for some) about the rain is that it looks like the real heavy persistent stuff will probably be confined to western coastal counties. The rest of the country could see a lot less.

maquiladora · 03-12-2015 11:13pm

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

Whats also interesting about that is 127mm for a part of Scotland and 153mm for a bit of Norway too...

Due to the very high ground.

JCX BXC · 03-12-2015 11:17pm

Well then

feargale · 03-12-2015 11:18pm

RubyK wrote: »

Waterford half marathon is on Saturday morning 10.00am, so it could be a rough day for runners and volunteers

With that wind at your back you could break the world record!

squarecircles · 03-12-2015 11:30pm

Pretty wild on the mayo coast Saturday if this happened.

km79 · 03-12-2015 11:34pm

hoping to wake up in morning and see all that rain has shifted more north

Hooter23 · 03-12-2015 11:41pm

A slight upgrade on the winds for Friday and Saturday I think

JCX BXC · 03-12-2015 11:58pm

Looking at the Met Eireann website, I have winds with at least a mean speed of +28knots from 18:00 Friday - 18:00 Saturday.
Not looking forward to it.

maquiladora · 04-12-2015 12:09am

18Z ARPEGE has totals starting to reach 150mm by the end of Saturday night in West Galway. Could be completely wrong of course.

Chicken Run · 04-12-2015 12:10am

Carnacalla wrote: »

Looking at the Met Eireann website, I have winds with at least a mean speed of +28knots from 18:00 Friday - 18:00 Saturday.
Not looking forward to it.

I feel your pain... I'm halfway up a mountain in East Clare with an 80 mile return commute to and from work on Friday and Saturday on country roads. Not looking forward to it at all.
That's if the forest I live in the middle of isn't partially felled by the weather...

pauldry · 04-12-2015 12:14am

Looking at bbc weather I reckon some stations in Ireland may get 90mm of rain over weekend particularly Galway mace head , mayo newport, donegal finner.

Gusts Friday saturday could max at 70 knots

25000 homes without power not out of question

So Desmond. What you got?

redsteveireland · 04-12-2015 12:14am

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z ARPEGE has totals starting to reach 150mm by the end of Saturday night in West Galway. Could be completely wrong of course.

That doesn't sound good for people out there as ground is saturated and roads around connemara were blocked recently due to flooding with some areas cut off completely.

Will see how far in from the coast the heavy stuff comes as the rivers are quite high and will not have much chance to recover.

maquiladora · 04-12-2015 12:19am

Latest Euro4, up until 6pm Saturday. Highest figure here is 129mm but there is an area shaded 150mm too. Definitely red warning territory.

Huge contrast with the east coast!

JCX BXC · 04-12-2015 12:21am

Knock TAF (Aviation Forecast) for 11pm showing 31knots gusting 50kts from 12-3pm tomorrow, (57.4km/h Gust 92.6km/h), pretty strong considering that's not the peak of the storm.

Weatherproof79 · 04-12-2015 12:27am

And the rain isn't expected to clear until the early hours of Sunday so that isn't the final total. Just saw the BBC weather and they mentioned 36 hours of continuous rain

Barna77 · 04-12-2015 12:35am

marvin80 wrote: »

What mph would usually cause a disruption?

(Flying early Saturday morning)

Same here.

Bumpy take off... or no take off at all :mad:

maquiladora · 04-12-2015 12:35am

Weatherproof79 wrote: »

And the rain isn't expected to clear until the early hours of Sunday so that isn't the final total. Just saw the BBC weather and they mentioned 36 hours of continuous rain

And even after that another period of rain is expected Sunday night through Monday morning, again heaviest in the west.

Weatherproof79 · 04-12-2015 12:36am

Friday 12pm to Saturday 12pm

https://f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/uploads/monthly_2015_12/5660d02aa5b44_viewimage(1).png.e0429babf7c20d9ded8c34c6c1d38661.png

Storm 10 · 04-12-2015 12:55am

One great indication of a storm coming is to check Marine Traffic and see how ships and fishing trawlers clear off the West Coast to shelter or go to a port, there is nothing showing there now but there was a lot there today

squarecircles · 04-12-2015 12:59am

Violent storm force 11 scraping the mayo coast tomorrow afternoon.

maquiladora · 04-12-2015 12:59am

Storm 10 wrote: »

One great indication of a storm coming is to check Marine Traffic and see how ships and fishing trawlers clear off the West Coast to shelter or go to a port, there is nothing showing there now but there was a lot there today

Shipping Forecast mentioned force 10 for Shannon, Rockall and Malin.

Meteorite58 · 04-12-2015 1:04am

Sea Area Forecast just now only mentioning F8 - F9 and that there is a Yellow warning. They are playing it cool.

M.T. Cranium · 04-12-2015 1:06am

Note to any moderator reading, please edit thread title to include "and heavy rainfall" taking out the word "early" ...

... continuing the earlier caveat that level two conditions will be confined to certain regions as discussed but also that level three conditions are possible in a few areas and residents of those areas should be on high alert for actionable flooding to develop by Saturday morning. I think a number of posts have discussed those details and the general rule would be that if you have streams in your vicinity draining any high ground nearby, you may be in a level three zone. Once again, I don't think this will affect a very large percentage of the population but even if it's a few hundred here and there, it is a substantial public safety risk overall, not to mention possible long-term damage to roads due to washouts.

The higher resolution models are clearly picking up strong signals of orographic rainfall which tends to be a process more than a moving event. Orographic rainfall maxima can only happen on upslope areas so there is no potential for these rainfall maxima to be displaced to some other location. They either happen there, or not at all. However, there is some uncertainty in terms of total rainfalls from other processes on lower terrain and some chance of estimates being displaced there.

Storm Desmond - High Winds 4/5 December 2015

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