Cold discussion 18th Jan onward - cold for at least 5 more days, some snow

MidMan25 · 19-01-2015 8:34am

Graces7 wrote: »

I think it was Robert Browning who said there are two kinds of people. One who says " Good morning, God" and the other, "Good God! Morning!" I was the former until one of the cats woke me with yelling in my ear and my warm body hit the cold air.... Knew it was going to be bad as when I went to toilet the dogs at nightfall ( they sleep in the extension with their own front door) I was met with a total stunned silence that meant ARE YOU CRAZY! They refused to budge...It is bitter, brazen stunningly COLD. The met site does not even have the temp for Kerry at the top..This is a grand house, renovated with all the water pipes inside and its own well so grand. I see no let up today.. ah well, we survived the other winters and we will this one. Grand SO!

ðŸ˜‚

pad199207 · 19-01-2015 8:47am

-5.3c in Naas this morning

irish1967 · 19-01-2015 9:02am

Coldest morning of the winter so far here in Donegal Town with temp at the minute of -4.7

The_Shotz · 19-01-2015 9:15am

Waterford Weather reporting -2.6 at the moment

http://www.waterfordcityweather.com

Graces7 · 19-01-2015 9:16am

irish1967 wrote: »

Coldest morning of the winter so far here in Donegal Town with temp at the minute of -4.7

Oh gee! very glad I moved south!

DOCARCH · 19-01-2015 9:18am

I see both Dublin AP and Casement have dropped to -6c at 0800.

-3.9c atm here (in south Dublin).

_Brian · 19-01-2015 9:19am

-8 on car earlier here in the hills in Cavan. Chilly. A mere -5 now.

shedweller · 19-01-2015 9:23am

Between -5 and -6 in Slane. Roads are ok though.

The12thMan · 19-01-2015 9:26am

-2.5 in cork city

quick question, what conditions are needed to turn rain to snow? air temps etc.?

and wher can i view a snow forecast?

i use
meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php

weisses · 19-01-2015 9:45am

The12thMan wrote: »

-2.5 in cork city

quick question, what conditions are needed to turn rain to snow? air temps etc.?

and wher can i view a snow forecast?

i use
meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php

I use this one

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=snow;sess=

Victor Meldrew · 19-01-2015 9:46am

Casement and Dublin Airport now posting -6C. Was -3C earlier ~ 7am.

Wonder how long it will stay sub zero...

pad199207 · 19-01-2015 9:55am

Fell further to -6c in Naas

munsterlegend · 19-01-2015 9:57am

pad199207 wrote: »

Fell further to -6c in Naas

I see where MT n his forecast has sleet/snow mix for the south later. looks good for the east and north. has there been a change in the models overnight? would have expected all rain down here.

Villain · 19-01-2015 10:04am

I hit a low of -6.3c and still at -6c.

Also the thread for the storm from last week is closed but I received a report over the weekend that a private weather station based on Mount Leinster recorded a gust of 152kmh last Wednesday!

The12thMan · 19-01-2015 10:05am

weisses wrote: »

I use this one

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=snow;sess=

maquiladora · 19-01-2015 10:06am

munsterlegend wrote: »

I see where MT n his forecast has sleet/snow mix for the south later. looks good for the east and north. has there been a change in the models overnight? would have expected all rain down here.

Looks like rain/sleet for the south except on high ground. For the west/north, looks like snow turning to rain.

Jpmarn · 19-01-2015 10:06am

For the Limerick area it looks like sleaty rain maybe changing to snow in the higher locations in the County.

ongarboy · 19-01-2015 10:12am

Interesting that Dublin Airport would drop 3 degrees in one hour when temps usually start to gradually warm up from 7am onwards.

You could definitely feel that extra cold sting on your cheeks and ears walking out and about in the city this morning!

Graces7 · 19-01-2015 10:19am

The back fields between the house and the South Kerry north mountains were white with frost. Washing on the line frosted but not frozen ( see how scientific my observations are

) Done my chores; dogs room cleaned, coal bucket filled etc etc, fed the cat, exercised the cats( feral chased indoor cat across the lane through the hedge and over the field..) Fed the birds, and am now settling to the work; knitting attractive preemie hats. The sky is heavy laden so anything might happen...even out the heating on for half an hour..

ZX7R · 19-01-2015 10:20am

Coldest night of the winter so far for me suncroft Kildare -6.2

john why · 19-01-2015 10:21am

Will this be an Event for Dublin?

hollster2 · 19-01-2015 10:23am

cold morning here in Tinahely -6 on my outside thermostat (Not sure its accurate) but its freezing!

DOCARCH · 19-01-2015 10:24am

john why wrote: »

Will this be an Event for Dublin?

I very much doubt it. Not enough precipitation forecast to make it an 'event'.

LordNorbury · 19-01-2015 10:26am

Hard to see where this precip is going to come from for snow on the east coast.

munsterlegend · 19-01-2015 10:26am

maquiladora wrote: »

Looks like rain/sleet for the south except on high ground. For the west/north, looks like snow turning to rain.

Thanks Maq. Younever know might get a ninja snow event! unlikely but always a chance!

Clonmel1000 · 19-01-2015 10:27am

john why wrote: »

Will this be an Event for Dublin?

Will it be an event for anyone other than the 3 or 4 counties that have seen any sort of reasonable event this winter.

Rebelbrowser · 19-01-2015 10:27am

Was looking at short term models just now trying to make an argument why it could snow widely at low levels tonight instead of in northern (and northern central at that) areas as the models suggest. On current model predictions its a close run thing but everywhere south of, say, Mayo to Louth line, loses out on a few counts as we are the wrong side of uppers (-4's generally, need to be at least 2 degrees lower I'd say), thickness (534 generally, needs to be lower than 528 usually) and dew points (1 or 2 in most places, need to be 0 or less I'd have thought). Odds against so but lets see what the 6z charts say in a while. At the mo Wednesday looks a slightly better bet for most.

Having said all of that higher parts of the East and the inland northern areas are definitely looking good for some snow tonight as things stand.

Speak Now · 19-01-2015 10:28am

LordNorbury wrote: »

Hard to see where this precip is going to come from for snow on the east coast.

Precip is coming from the west coast whatever it falls as remains to be seen.

Speak Now · 19-01-2015 10:30am

The_Shotz wrote: »

Waterford Weather reporting -2.6 at the moment

http://www.waterfordcityweather.com

Airport had -5 this morning.

LordNorbury · 19-01-2015 10:32am

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Was looking at short term models just now trying to make an argument why it could snow widely at low levels tonight instead of in northern (and northern central at that) areas as the models suggest. On current model predictions its a close run thing but everywhere south of, say, Mayo to Louth line, loses out on a few counts as we are the wrong side of uppers (-4's generally, need to be at least 2 degrees lower I'd say), thickness (534 generally, needs to be lower than 528 usually) and dew points (1 or 2 in most places, need to be 0 or less I'd have thought). Odds against so but lets see what the 6z charts say in a while. At the mo Wednesday looks a slightly better bet for most.

Having said all of that higher parts of the East and the inland northern areas are definitely looking good for some snow tonight as things stand.

The great thing about Dublin is that you can get to 300 metres above sea level within 5-10 minutes of the M50 if you head off up the Military Road, where there can be an abundance of snow, even if there is no snow at sea level which is only 10 minutes away. So if you really want to find it, it is on your doorstep at times like this I think.

munsterlegend · 19-01-2015 10:33am

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Was looking at short term models just now trying to make an argument why it could snow widely at low levels tonight instead of in northern (and northern central at that) areas as the models suggest. On current model predictions its a close run thing but everywhere south of, say, Mayo to Louth line, loses out on a few counts as we are the wrong side of uppers (-4's generally, need to be at least 2 degrees lower I'd say), thickness (534 generally, needs to be lower than 528 usually) and dew points (1 or 2 in most places, need to be 0 or less I'd have thought). Odds against so but lets see what the 6z charts say in a while. At the mo Wednesday looks a slightly better bet for most.

Having said all of that higher parts of the East and the inland northern areas are definitely looking good for some snow tonight as things stand.

rarely works out at lower levels when coming from the west. unless it stall and/or heavy precipitation which doesn't seem likely from what i have read.
MT's gave me a small cause for optimism and ME have rain/sleet.

john why · 19-01-2015 10:36am

DOCARCH wrote: »

I very much doubt it. Not enough precipitation forecast to make it an 'event'.

Ok cheers. But still a chance of a dusting maybe

maquiladora · 19-01-2015 10:39am

john why wrote: »

Ok cheers. But still a chance of a dusting maybe

A small chance of some light, wet snow almost immediately turning to rain. Wouldn't really even be a dusting.

DOCARCH · 19-01-2015 10:40am

maquiladora wrote: »

A small chance of some light, wet snow almost immediately turning to rain. Wouldn't really even be a dusting.

Agreed...but hoping otherwise!

RED L4 0TH · 19-01-2015 10:44am

Extent of precipitation by late this evening and freezing level & thickness charts (6Z run). Inland northern areas seem the best bet for snow at lower levels currently I'd guess.

Pangea · 19-01-2015 10:54am

Should be interesting, I fear I am too far west in Donegal for the snowfall, If memory serves right, Donegal town eastwards got snow from the Atlantic a few years back while I got rain. Going by them charts today it looks like the same could happen. Lucky you irish1967.

Rebelbrowser · 19-01-2015 10:55am

RED L4 0TH wrote: »

Extent of precipitation by late this evening and freezing level & thickness charts (6Z run). Inland northern areas seem the best bet for snow at lower levels currently I'd guess.

That all looks like a slight upgrade. You'd never know.........

WheatenBriar · 19-01-2015 10:56am

I think the driver of any snow wherever it falls will be the surface cold and if it persists near zero,I know that's obvious but dps won't rise too much if air temps don't
850 temps of -4 don't matter if the air tem all the way to the ground is zero for most of it or all of it
A southerly breeze will scupper this in most of Munster and south Leinster by the looks of things
It might not initially in higher parts of S Dublin , the places I talked about yesterday because that southerly is traveling over the Wicklow mtns
South east though, I'd forget about it

Had a low of -3c in Arklow, now up to 1c,a southerly here will take that up to 6+ very quickly
Currently it's flat calm with a dp of -2

WheatenBriar · 19-01-2015 11:04am

Pangea wrote: »

Should be interesting, I fear I am too far west in Donegal for the snowfall, If memory serves right, Donegal town eastwards got snow from the Atlantic a few years back while I got rain. Going by them charts today it looks like the same could happen. Lucky you irish1967.

Latest BBC 24 graphics there presennted by Carol Kirkwood,based on Euro 4 makes this a high ground event only in Ulster and a snow to rain in connaught with some on the Wicklow mtns and the galtee's
Probably a fair assessment

ffarrell7 · 19-01-2015 11:18am

Dublin mountains yesterday...-2 degrees at 11.00 and snow snow falling....lots of ice especially....

patneve2 · 19-01-2015 11:22am

00Z run has uppers of -3.6, 529 DAM and approx 6mm of precipitation over S. Dublin early hours of the morning.

http://www.meteopt.com/modelos/meteogramas/gfs.php?lat=53.27&lon=-6.19&lang=en&type=txt&units=m

lucernarian · 19-01-2015 11:28am

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Was looking at short term models just now trying to make an argument why it could snow widely at low levels tonight instead of in northern (and northern central at that) areas as the models suggest. On current model predictions its a close run thing but everywhere south of, say, Mayo to Louth line, loses out on a few counts as we are the wrong side of uppers (-4's generally, need to be at least 2 degrees lower I'd say), thickness (534 generally, needs to be lower than 528 usually) and dew points (1 or 2 in most places, need to be 0 or less I'd have thought). Odds against so but lets see what the 6z charts say in a while. At the mo Wednesday looks a slightly better bet for most.

Having said all of that higher parts of the East and the inland northern areas are definitely looking good for some snow tonight as things stand.

You should check the charts I posted earlier. The 850 hPa thickness chart is a better estimate of snow than the 500 hPa line by using the 130 hPa line though in this case I would say it restricts snow to higher ground.

Anyway the Euro4 and HIRLAM are the models to go for now? I can see the 00z graphics currently and for any general downward trend for dewpoints, precipitation is reduced. I wonder if any slightly more active blocking can be had than predicted, like the "warm" front around 4th Dec 2010. That was a narrow band of snow and sleet that made its way very slowly across the country.

Macy0161 · 19-01-2015 11:35am

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Latest BBC 24 graphics there presennted by Carol Kirkwood,based on Euro 4 makes this a high ground event only in Ulster and a snow to rain in connaught with some on the Wicklow mtns and the galtee's
Probably a fair assessment

Any guestimate on the snow line, WB? Hoping for 200m, but these things have been tending to be 250m plus in recent years...

WheatenBriar · 19-01-2015 11:47am

Macy0161 wrote: »

Any guestimate on the snow line, WB? Hoping for 200m, but these things have been tending to be 250m plus in recent years...

If I was a betting man I'd say 250 mtrs+ Dublin area with that light precipitation now and projected wind direction
I've clouded over here now and still no breeze
Still 1c air dp -2
Precipitation not due until late evening though so probably a good bit warmer every where by then if winds are S or SE

LordNorbury · 19-01-2015 11:52am

ffarrell7 wrote: »

Dublin mountains yesterday...-2 degrees at 11.00 and snow snow falling....lots of ice especially....

Is that at the gates to start the walk up to Kippure?

munsterlegend · 19-01-2015 11:54am

WheatenBriar wrote: »

If I was a betting man I'd say 250 mtrs+ Dublin area with that light precipitation now and projected wind direction
I've clouded over here now and still no breeze
Still 1c air dp -2
Precipitation not due until late evening though so probably a good bit warmer every where by then if winds are S or SE

still 0 here and dp of -1. surprised its still that cold here.

Rebelbrowser · 19-01-2015 11:55am

lucernarian wrote: »

You should check the charts I posted earlier. The 850 hPa thickness chart is a better estimate of snow than the 500 hPa line by using the 130 hPa line though in this case I would say it restricts snow to higher ground.

Anyway the Euro4 and HIRLAM are the models to go for now? I can see the 00z graphics currently and for any general downward trend for dewpoints, precipitation is reduced. I wonder if any slightly more active blocking can be had than predicted, like the "warm" front around 4th Dec 2010. That was a narrow band of snow and sleet that made its way very slowly across the country.

Thanks. In terms of 6z charts, I thought that euro 4 was every 6 hours but am I wrong? Not updated yet anyway even if so....

Rebelbrowser · 19-01-2015 12:00pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

still 0 here and dp of -1. surprised its still that cold here.

On yr.no 0z it never has temps going above 2 degrees in Dublin area (3pm is the warmest time it shows). It is even colder either side of this time wise....

Rock Lesnar · 19-01-2015 12:05pm

Frost still hasn't cleared here even in the sun, feels baltic to

munsterlegend · 19-01-2015 12:12pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

On yr.no 0z it never has temps going above 2 degrees in Dublin area (3pm is the warmest time it shows). It is even colder either side of this time wise....

very cloudy here but i suppose the precipitation will be modified by the south/se breeze as was mentioned earlier.

Cold discussion 18th Jan onward - cold for at least 5 more days, some snow

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