[M.T. Cranium]

Friday, 26 March, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for week of 26 Mar to 1 Apr 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 3 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will total about 75% of normal in the west and north, to 25% in the southeast.
-- Sunshine may eventually catch up to normal amounts later in the period. It will be quite windy today and Saturday, moderately windy thereafter.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be cold with passing mixed wintry showers. Some of the more vigorous showers could have hail and thunder, and other mixed forms like snow pellets (the faster they fall, the less time they have to melt). There will also be breaks in the overcast and sunny intervals, those probably longer in Leinster and Munster. Highs only reaching 5 to 9 C, and temperatures prone to falling to near freezing during any heavy mixed showers, which may leave some higher elevation roads slippery from snow or hail covering from time to time. Winds southwest to west at about 50 to 80 km/hr adding considerable chill (although the late March sun has the opposite effect).

TONIGHT will continue windy and cold but most of the mixed wintry showers should die out for a while, if any persist they could turn to steady light snow on hills. Lows -1 to +3 C.

SATURDAY will have slowly rising temperatures all day continuing into the evening and overnight hours, as much milder air from the Atlantic gradually replaces this cold sector, with temperatures likely to be around 6-9 C mid-day and up to 10-13 C in the late afternoon and evening. Winds southwest 50-80 km/hr and some higher gusts likely in Connacht and west Ulster. Occasional rain will develop in those areas, but it may stay fairly dry in the southeast.

SUNDAY will be breezy and quite mild in most areas, highs 12 to 15 C, possibly a bit lower in north Connacht and most of Ulster at 8-10 C. Winds southwest 40-70 km/hr. Some outbreaks of drizzle or light rain near a frontal band across the north, probably staying dry in some parts of the south however.

MONDAY will be mild too with some sunny breaks, a few outbreaks of light rain crossing northern counties, and highs reaching 12-16 C in many areas (9-11 C north).

TUESDAY the south will start out in that milder air mass but much colder air will press in rapidly from the north, anywhere that makes it to 10 C will probably fall back to about 7 C which will be typical for most of the northern half of the country, in partly cloudy skies. A few showers along this front might linger near the south coast until near the end of the afternoon. Winds turning northerly at 40-60 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY will be quite cold with north to northeast winds, lows -2 to +3 C and highs 5 to 9 C, some chance of a few mixed wintry showers over higher ground, but also some sunny intervals.

THURSDAY will also be rather cold with frosts and highs reaching about 8 to 10 C.

The guidance at present has diverged a little on the details of the cold spell after that, some indications that a more moderate wedge of high pressure will save parts of the Easter weekend from being exceptionally cold, but this is no guarantee as other guidance resists this change, and in any case, it would be a brief interruption with unseasonable wintry chill returning at some point around Easter Sunday in any case. That could persist into part of the following week before there is much moderation. Anyway, lots of time left before this becomes an immediate forecast concern and some chance of it totally changing to a different outlook the way the models have been performing in recent months. (maybe they caught a virus?)

My local weather was partly cloudy with passing showers, some of them mixed (although not as windy as you have it today, basically the same weather set-up here). Highs were in the range of 5 to 10 C by elevation. The snow line has crept up to around 700 metres now with the first spring flowers showing up in the valley, something we won't be seeing up here for at least a month. Our elevation difference of 500 metres produces the same weather differences as you would associate with going north for about five hundred kilometres.

Anyway, stay safe if you have to drive anywhere today, conditions could be changeable and especially so if you're located in the west or north.

[M.T. Cranium]

Saturday, 27 March, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 27 Mar to 2 Apr 2021

-- Temperatures will average about 1-2 deg above normal values. It will be turning a lot colder near the end of this interval, but touching values of near 4-5 deg above normal Monday and possibly Tuesday (at least in the south).
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal in the north and west, to 25 per cent in the southeast.
-- Sunshine will average 75 per cent of normal, although some improvements due by Monday-Tuesday in that regard, and it will be rather windy over the weekend with more average wind speeds most of the week.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy and while it starts out quite cold, slowly rising temperatures all day will peak by this evening at 10-12 C. Winds southwest 30-50 km/hr will increase later to 50-80 km/hr and some gusts to around 100 km/hr on exposed coasts by evening. Rainfalls of 5-10 mm likely in the west and north with some heavier bursts by late in the afternoon. This rain may be quite patchy over the inland south and east and it may remain dry for some south and east coast locations.

TONIGHT will continue rather windy and mild with temperatures generally near 10 C, occasional light rain and winds southwest 40-70 km/hr.

SUNDAY will be a breezy and mild day with further outbreaks of light rain, mostly in west-central to inland northern counties where 5-10 mm is possible. Further south, a few brighter intervals are likely and the rain may be quite intermittent. Highs 11-14 C for most, 8-11 C north.

MONDAY will become partly cloudy and very mild in many areas, with some further rain likely in parts of the west and north for a time, and moderate southwest winds continuing. Lows 4 to 7 C and highs 14 to 18 C.

TUESDAY the push of colder air looks a bit weaker now which may mean a further day of mild weather in the south and some central counties; the colder air mass may eventually drop temperatures a few degrees across the north, so starting out with readings of 10-13 C in most areas, rising slightly across the south to 14-16 C, falling slowly in the north to around 7 C. A few isolated showers are likely with weak frontal troughs moving south late in the day.

WEDNESDAY is likely to see a further gradual push of cooler air but high pressure ridging across the country may prevent much disturbed weather, just a slow infiltration of the cooler air, with lows 5-8 C and highs 11-13 C except possibly a bit colder in Ulster.

THURSDAY to SATURDAY as the Easter weekend sets in, some uncertainty as to the details, probably quite cool with the more northerly high starting to dominate and spreading cooler air in from the northeast, some guidance still showing a more disturbed showery flow but on balance, most likely to be just isolated showers and some could be wintry at least on higher ground. Highs most likely in the 5 to 10 C range, with slight frosts returning. Some chance of it being either a bit milder near the south coast, or alternatively somewhat colder in some northern areas than the range above.

By EASTER SUNDAY most guidance still going for rather cold and increasingly unsettled weather. So for now we'll say a rough estimate of near 5-6 C and the risk of mixed wintry showers in north to northeast winds.

Some guidance is suggesting that this rather cold air is now just a leading edge of a really cold air mass that may try to push south out of the arctic regions, which may lead to stronger northerly winds and a higher risk of mixed wintry forms of precipitation by about Monday-Tuesday (5-6 Apr). After that, the Atlantic seems determined to push back which could lead to some blocked low pressure systems swirling around near the south coast, which could produce unpleasant cold rain if not wintry mixtures. Once this colder regime sets in, it could take a week or two for a return to more normal spring-like weather, so enjoy this brief warm spell coming up.

My local weather on Friday here was overcast with highs near 7 C as we enter into a very slow warming trend.

[M.T. Cranium]

Sunday, 28 March, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 28 Mar to 3 Apr 2021

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg above normal values. The colder push expected some time around the middle to end of the week has been pushed back a few days and this milder trend may persist even into the Easter weekend although with the changes from day to day on model runs, nothing should be taken as guaranteed yet.
-- Rainfall will likely average about 50 per cent of normal in a few parts of the west but otherwise closer to 25 per cent.
-- Sunshine will improve through the week and may end up above normal eventually. Winds have peaked now and will be mostly moderate or near the average range for most of this interval.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast in the south and overcast in other areas, with scattered showers or outbreaks of rain, generally rather patchy with amounts about 5 to 10 mm. It will become milder again with highs in the 12 to 15 C range, possibly held down a bit in the north. Winds southwest 40 to 60 km/hr at times.

TONIGHT will feature some drizzle, fog and mist in some areas, and mild overnight lows of 5 to 8 C.

MONDAY will become partly cloudy with any lingering drizzle or rain increasingly confined to the northwest. Moderate south to southwest breezes and very mild with highs 13 to 17 C.

TUESDAY will continue very mild with some hazy sunshine, lows 5 to 8 C and highs 14 to 18 C.

The interval from WEDNESDAY to EASTER SUNDAY is now subject to a changed outlook in general with models starting to delay the arrival of the much colder air to the night of the 4th-5th. High pressure that will now apparently rule the roost for a while is somewhat cooler than the very mild spell ahead but not that cool either, with the full sunshine of early April to help out, highs could be in the comfortable 9 to 14 C range with northeast breezes in some areas holding temperatures down somewhat. I am not entirely confident this is the last large-scale change the models may make and so would caution that a colder outlook could return to the scene, but for now this is what the guidance is telling us (I am but the messenger etc ) ... this settled spell should be fairly cool at night once the higher pressure sets in and some slight frosts or patchy shallow fog in valleys can be expected towards dawn most days in this interval.

The same charts that have delayed the cold spell have also made it even more ferocious when it does arrive, which is not something that I entirely accept given this history of frequent change, but be aware that according to global models which have cost a lot more money than you or I will ever see, record breaking cold will advance from the highest latitudes that money can buy (they run out at the north pole) and swoop down on Britain and Ireland around the end of the Easter weekend and hold sway for Monday, Tuesday (5-6 Apr) before slowly relenting. That could mean temperatures down around record low values for those dates and at least mixed wintry showers (if any of it actually happens). It will be an interesting few days for weather watchers and all we can say at this early stage is, proof is in the pudding so to speak, that could all look a bit over-cooked by the time it's supposed to arrive.

My local weather was a bit milder on Saturday with a lot of mid-level cloud around, brisk southerly breezes and highs pushing up a bit above 10 degrees.

(just a note for one or two people perhaps, we're now on to summer time, or more accurately, you are now on to it, I had the privilege two weeks ago, so if it suddenly appears to be an hour later than you expected, there's the reason for it, clocks moved ahead overnight from 0100h to 0200h, if the police ask you where you were at 0130h give them a blank stare and an enigmatic smile.)

[M.T. Cranium]

Monday, 29 March, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 29 Mar to 4 Apr 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 3 to 4 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 25% of normal in the northwest, to near zero in many other areas.
-- Sunshine will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal values; wind speeds will be about average.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out cloudy and misty in places with rain continuing over Donegal for much of the morning and early afternoon, while other counties except for portions close to Donegal will likely stay dry after patchy light drizzle ends. Mild or even warm by afternoon except in parts of the northwest and a few locations prone to onshore south winds, highs 14 to 17 C for most and near 12 C in those few other locations. Moderate southwest winds backing to southerly later.

TONIGHT will be hazy with some patchy mist or fog developing, mild with lows 7 to 10 C.

TUESDAY will feature hazy sunshine and warm temperatures with highs 15 to 18 C (except for a few spots near the south coast where sea fog may drift in at times and hold temperatures down to 10-12 C).

WEDNESDAY will turn considerably cooler in many areas as winds turn northeasterly at 30-50 km/hr, some rain returning to Donegal and spreading down the west coast during the day (5-10 mm possible). Mostly cloudy elsewhere but some brighter intervals persisting in the southeast where it may remain somewhat warmer. Morning lows in all areas around 8 C but temperatures only edging back up slightly in the north and west to 10-12 C, recovering to 14-16 C in the southeast.

THURSDAY while the winds remain easterly, the fresher variety of air mass will be gradually moderating back to pleasant spring warmth, with lows 4-7 C and highs 12-15 C. With the east wind, it would be the Leinster coastline seeing some local cooling from sea breezes. Skies may start out rather cloudy becoming at least partly sunny by mid-day and afternoon.

(GOOD) FRIDAY will remain dry and mixtures of cloud and sun in east winds of 30-50 km/hr, morning lows 2-5 C and afternoon highs 13-16 C with some cooler readings possible in the east.

SATURDAY will remain similar with partly cloudy skies, less of an east wind factor as a ridge crests over Ireland, so local sea breezes possible on all coasts, highs 13-16 C.

EASTER SUNDAY may hold on to similar pleasant temperatures at least to the afternoon although the north may see a sharp drop towards late in the day, and while dry weather is expected to continue for most, a band of rain will be arriving from the north late afternoon or evening. Highs 12-15 C with a sharp drop likely overnight.

MONDAY-TUESDAY (5th-6th Apr) are still being shown as much colder days with northerly winds of 50-80 km/hr and mixed wintry showers likely, some snow on hills. Highs only 4 to 6 C and lows -3 to +1 C.

The further outlook then calls for slight moderation but with potential for a second wave of very cold temperatures to follow within a week.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast with light rain from noon to about 4 p.m., rather breezy with highs around 8 C. The snow cover here has gradually retreated into shaded areas but remains visible on all surrounding hills, while more from snow clearing work than nature, the roads and sidewalks are all bare and most of the winter grit collected back although you can find spots where there is a covering of that sort waiting for maintenance crews to recover it. We are probably not quite done with the snow season yet though.

[M.T. Cranium]

Tuesday, 30 March, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 30 Mar to 5 Apr 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal, starting out 5-6 above today and slowly drifting down towards the other extreme by Monday 5th.
-- Rainfalls will average 10 to 20 per cent of normal except possibly in Donegal and nearby, 30 per cent there.
-- Sunshine will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal. Wind speeds will be about average most of the interval, picking up to quite strong northerlies later Sunday 4th into Monday 5th.


FORECASTS

TODAY will feature hazy sunshine and warm temperatures with highs 15 to 18 C (except for a few spots near the south coast where sea fog may drift in at times and hold temperatures down to 10-12 C). There will be somewhat more cloud in western counties at least for the morning. Generally light southerly breezes.

TONIGHT will be hazy with some patchy mist or fog developing, mild with lows 7 to 10 C. Rain may develop late in the night across parts of Ulster.

WEDNESDAY will turn considerably cooler in many areas as winds turn northeasterly at 30-50 km/hr, some rain returning to Donegal and spreading down the west coast during the day (5-10 mm possible). Mostly cloudy elsewhere but some brighter intervals persisting in the southeast where it may remain somewhat warmer. Morning lows in all areas around 8 C but temperatures only edging back up slightly in the north and west to 10-12 C, recovering to 14-16 C in the southeast.

THURSDAY while the winds remain easterly, the fresher variety of air mass will be gradually moderating back to pleasant spring warmth, with lows 4-7 C and highs 12-15 C, warmest in west Munster. With the east wind, it would be the Leinster coastline seeing some local cooling from sea breezes. Skies may start out rather cloudy becoming at least partly sunny by mid-day and afternoon.

(GOOD) FRIDAY will remain dry and mixtures of cloud and sun in east winds of 30-50 km/hr, morning lows 2-5 C and afternoon highs 11-15 C with some cooler readings possible in the east.

SATURDAY will remain similar with partly cloudy skies, less of an east wind factor as a ridge crests over Ireland, so local sea breezes possible on all coasts, highs 10-14 C.

EASTER SUNDAY may hold on to similar pleasant temperatures at least to the afternoon although the north may see a sharp drop towards late in the day, and while dry weather is expected to continue for most, a band of rain will be arriving from the north late afternoon or evening. Highs 10-13 C early in the day with a sharp drop likely by afternoon in northern counties, by the overnight hours for the south coast.

MONDAY-TUESDAY (5th-6th Apr) are still being shown as much colder days with northerly winds of 50-80 km/hr and mixed wintry showers likely, some snow on hills. Highs only 4 to 6 C and lows -3 to +1 C.

The further outlook then calls for slight moderation but with potential for a second wave of very cold temperatures to follow within a week. In general, this guidance is probably only "medium" confidence at this point but it should be noted that the interval from 5 to 15 April shows up about as cold as any recent year has ever produced at this time of year.

My local weather on Monday was partly cloudy and quite cold, highs only reaching about 4 C, and feeling colder than that in a northwest wind.

[M.T. Cranium]

Wednesday, 31 March, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 31 Mar to 6 Apr 2021

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal, however that is mainly due to unseasonably cold temperatures expected Monday-Tuesday of next week, until that arrives, the average will be close to seasonal normals.
-- Rainfalls will average 25 per cent of normal, except closer to 50 per cent in parts of the north which will likely see
some today (absent in other regions) and also get more from the northerly when mixed wintry showers develop.
-- Sunshine will average 25 per cent above normal except closer to normal in the west and north. Wind speeds rather light at times until strong northerlies arrive late Sunday.


FORECASTS

TODAY will see a divide between a cool, wet northwest and hazy, milder weather elsewhere, with 5-15 mm rainfalls possible in parts of north Connacht and west Ulster where highs will be held down to about 10 C. In the dry and milder air, with any sunny breaks temperatures could recover to 14 or 15 C.

TONIGHT will bring some cloudy intervals in most areas, rather chilly with lows 2 to 5 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy in the west, to overcast at times in the east, where some sea fog and drizzle could drift a few miles inland on easterly breezes. Otherwise generally dry, with highs 13 to 15 C away from the cooler east coast (8-12 C there).

(GOOD) FRIDAY will probably see more sunshine than cloud in many areas but that east coast low cloud and drizzle may try to redevelop in a few spots, morning lows rather chilly at 1 to 4 C, afternoon highs 12 to 15 C for most.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny, with generally light winds allowing some sea breeze development on all coasts, with the possibility of low cloud or sea fog in a few areas as a result. Inland it should be quite mild after a cool overnight low of -1 to +3 C. Highs 12 to 15 C for most, near 10 C on some coasts.

EASTER SUNDAY will be a day of rapid weather changes, with the day starting out similar to the previous day, calm and fairly mild, but with winds picking up to westerly 40-70 km/hr, a front will race south late in the day and bring showers turning wintry overnight. Morning lows about 3 to 7 C, afternoon highs (early in the north) 7-12 C mildest near south coast. Temperatures falling rapidly by evening as winds become northerly 50 to 80 km/hr and showers turned mixed wintry with snow falling on higher terrain.

MONDAY and TUESDAY of next week look very cold with mixed wintry showers and snow quite possible in those, especially on higher ground. Some brighter intervals are likely in northerly winds of 50 to 80 km/hr. Morning lows around -2 C and afternoon highs only 4 to 7 C.

This unseasonable cold spell will moderate around Wednesday with a brief insertion of somewhat milder air from the northwest, and highs near 9 or 10 C, then a second cold spell begins but it may not be quite as severe as the first one. There are now indications of a more rapid return to somewhat more "normal" April weather conditions by about the second weekend in April.

My local weather was cloudy with a few breaks, and chilly with highs only about 5 C.

[M.T. Cranium]

Thursday, 1st of April, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 1 to 7 April, 2021

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg below normal values, largely because of very cold temperatures expected on Monday and Tuesday, but it will also be rather cool in the east before that arrives, so that is where the average might be as low as 4 below normal, the milder west will build up some above normal averages before the cold arrives.
-- Rainfalls will be about 25 per cent of normal values, or less in some areas, as wintry showers on Monday and Tuesday are not likely to produce heavy precipitation. Some rain late Sunday is the main producer of any totals at all.
-- Sunshine will vary from 25 per cent below normal in some east and north coast counties to 25 per cent above normal in the south and west. These differences will build up in the first half of the interval. Most places will be rather cloudy from Sunday to next Wednesday.
-- Winds will be light to moderate until Sunday afternoon or evening, then rather strong for about a day and a half before backing off to moderate again.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be rather cloudy near the east coast and cooler with highs 8 to 13 C, some low cloud or sea fog and drizzle is possible at times, but not too far inland some brighter spells may also be encountered. Further west and in particular near the west coast, the easterly flow will allow for warmth to spread to the coast and bring temperatures up to 14 C or thereabouts, although some drifting low cloud and sea fog could be near all coastlines at times.

TONIGHT will feature some clear intervals and the eastern cloud may break to partly cloudy skies, lows 3 to 7 C.

GOOD FRIDAY will be a similar day but likely a bit less cloudy over eastern regions so highs could be more similar to those further west, 10 to 14 C. Both Thursday and Friday, a few places in west Munster may be even warmer than forecasts are saying, a local 17-19 C would not be too surprising since there hasn't really been a strong change of air mass.

By SATURDAY the easterly flow will be replaced by light westerly breezes and this could push in marine cloud layers over parts of Ulster and Connacht, while sunshine prevails further east on this occasion. Lows of 1 to 4 C and highs about 12 to 15 C are expected.

EASTER SUNDAY will start off in this same moderate air mass, but it will be rather suddenly replaced by much colder air arriving mid-afternoon in the north to early evening in the south, on strong northwest to north winds. Morning lows 1 to 4 C, afternoon highs 8 to 11 C north, 11 to 14 C south. Temperatures will fall quickly in the late afternoon and evening, rain turning to sleet or snow in some places, although accumulations expected to be patchy 1-2 cm.

MONDAY will be unseasonably cold with strong north winds 50 to 80 km/hr, some higher gusts in exposed coastal locations adding a chill to near record low temperatures starting out around -1 or -2 C and working back to only highs of 3 to 6 C. Passing wintry showers could lay down some temporary coatings of snow, or graupel (a form of hail) and snow pellets are likely too, some thunder may develop in heavier showers. There will be a few brighter intervals especially across the south. Wind chills may be as low as -4 C in some areas.

TUESDAY will be just about as cold although not quite as windy, and the inland penetration of wintry showers may be somewhat reduced with northern and western high ground seeing more of them, lows -2 to -4 C and highs 3 to 7 deg C.

WEDNESDAY will bring a slight moderation as a weak warm sector develops between this first outbreak and a second one following on, so as winds become briefly westerly at 30-50 km/hr, under cloudy skies with some rain at times, temperatures will recover a bit to 8 or 9 C.

By THURSDAY into FRIDAY and the following weekend, a new batch of very cold air is likely to arrive, not quite as cold as the first round, so highs of 4 to 7 C and overnight lows of -2 to +2 C are expected; more sleety showers but the mix will likely be less snow and more rain than the first interval. This cold spell looks like it will just gradually moderate a degree or two each day until things get back to near normal mid-April weather for a while; however, the pattern looks capable of reloading at intervals with further cold spells so the month as a whole is likely to be quite a bit below normal in temperature, and eventually rainfalls may increase as the Atlantic tries to restore its dominant role with a storm track near or just south of Ireland at times by later in the month. If there was ever to be a repeat of legendary snowfalls of the distant past in April (such as in 1917) this type of cold outbreak is one necessary ingredient, but nothing on the charts suggests an exact duplication of that event (1st-2nd Apr 1917, some parts of southern and western Ireland had very heavy snowfalls -- the culprit was a slow-moving low pressure area that circled around over Britain for several days with air masses at record cold levels pushing in from the northeast and later on from the northwest). Some higher places could see 2-5 cm snow cover during this coming event but they were measuring snow in feet in the 1917 storm. Over in Britain they had their coldest April day in a 250-year interval and in Ireland there were readings colder than on any other April days also.

My local weather was sunny and a bit milder than recent days, with a high near 9 C. Out of the breeze it felt a lot warmer than that. The eastern warm spell (in the U.S.) has come to an end and some snow is expected inland with a cold rain near the coast.

[M.T. Cranium]

Friday, 2 April, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 2 to 8 April, 2021

-- Temperatures will average 3 to 5 deg below normal values, with the first two days closer to average.
-- Rainfalls will be about 25 per cent of normal values, or less in some areas, as wintry showers on Monday and Tuesday are not likely to produce heavy precipitation. Some rain late Sunday is the main producer of any totals at all.
-- Sunshine will vary from 25 per cent below normal in some east and north coast counties to 25 per cent above normal in the south and west. These differences will build up in the first half of the interval. Most places will be rather cloudy from Sunday to next Wednesday.
-- Winds will be light to moderate until Sunday afternoon or evening, then rather strong for about a day and a half before backing off to moderate again.

FORECASTS

TODAY will see a continued presence of some cloud near the east coast and cool temperatures with highs 8 to 13 C, some low cloud or sea fog and drizzle is possible at times, but not too far inland some brighter spells will likely be encountered. Further west and in particular near the west coast, the easterly flow will allow for warmth to spread to the coast and bring temperatures up to 14 C and locally 16 C, although some drifting low cloud and sea fog could be near all coastlines at times.

TONIGHT will see fairly extensive clearing and light frost is possible inland, lows -2 to +3 C.

By SATURDAY the easterly flow will be replaced by variable then light westerly breezes and this could push in marine cloud layers over parts of Ulster and Connacht, while sunshine prevails further east on this occasion. Lows of 1 to 4 C and highs about 12 to 15 C are expected.

EASTER SUNDAY will start off in this same moderate air mass, but it will be rather suddenly replaced by much colder air arriving mid-afternoon in the north to early evening in the south, on strong northwest to north winds. Morning lows 1 to 4 C, afternoon highs 8 to 11 C north, 11 to 14 C south. Temperatures will fall quickly in the late afternoon and evening, rain turning to sleet or snow in some places, although accumulations expected to be patchy 1-2 cm.

MONDAY will be unseasonably cold with strong north winds 50 to 80 km/hr, some higher gusts to 100 km/hr in exposed coastal locations adding a chill to near record low temperatures starting out around -1 or -2 C and working back to only highs of 3 to 6 C. Passing wintry showers could lay down some temporary coatings of snow, or graupel (a form of hail) and snow pellets are likely too, some thunder may develop in heavier showers. There will be a few brighter intervals especially across the south. Wind chills may be as low as -4 C in some areas.

TUESDAY will be just about as cold although not quite as windy, and the inland penetration of wintry showers may be somewhat reduced with northern and western high ground seeing more of them, lows -2 to -4 C and highs 3 to 7 deg C. Winds northwest to north 40 to 70 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY will bring a slight moderation as a weak warm sector develops between this first outbreak and a second one following on, so as winds become briefly westerly at 30-50 km/hr, under cloudy skies with some rain at times, temperatures will recover a bit to 8 or 9 C after morning lows near -1 C.

By THURSDAY into FRIDAY and the following weekend a second cold spell may be somewhat less windy than the first one but it may also contain more organized areas of mixed wintry precipitation as troughs rotate around a stalled low in north-central Europe. There will probably be a slight moderation each day after Friday, but highs on Thursday and Friday could be only about 5 to 7 C, with slight frosts both mornings.

Eventually the pattern becomes somewhat less chilly but more unsettled, so only slight improvements going into the middle of April.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast and mild with highs near 12 C.

[M.T. Cranium]

Saturday, 3 April, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 3 to 9 April 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg below normal values, although today will likely be near or even slightly above.
-- Rainfall will be about 25 to 50 per cent of normal, the heavier amounts being more likely in the north and west.
-- Sunshine will be near normal values, despite a lot of cloud mid-week. Wind speeds will be light today and part of Sunday, moderate to strong at times the rest of the interval, and mainly from a northwest to north direction.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny with some patchy cloud developing near coasts in the northwest later on, but for most the only cloud will be increasing high cloud, perhaps leading to a nice sunset. Highs 11 to 15 C, this time the warmth will likely be more concentrated in the inland south and east as a light westerly flow sets in.

TONIGHT will continue rather clear in many places, with the increasing high cloud somewhat thicker over western and northern counties. Lows -2 to +3 C.

EASTER SUNDAY will start out fairly pleasant and the weather in at least the southern half of the country will be similar to today until mid-afternoon. Further north, cloud will increase faster and showers may develop in the afternoon. A sharp cold front is expected to race through all regions after sunset, and timing at present is around 8 p.m. for Ulster, to 2 a.m. for the south coast. Shortly after the front passes, temperatures will begin to fall off sharply after highs of 11 to 14 C. The overnight period to Monday morning will be windy and much colder with mixed wintry showers developing, winds northwest 40 to 70 km/hr with some higher gusts near exposed coasts.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy with scattered wintry showers, tending to be more vigorous in parts of Ulster and Connacht, and prone to falls of accumulating snow on hills there. Morning lows near -1 C then afternoon highs unseasonably cold at 4 to 7 C. Winds northwest 50 to 80 km/hr at times will add several degrees of chill factor and temperatures may fall back during and after any heavier wintry showers.

TUESDAY will also be cold with passing wintry showers but perhaps not as windy with northwest to north winds of about 40 to 60 km/hr. Morning lows near -2 C and afternoon highs near 6 C.

WEDNESDAY will become slightly milder with skies mostly cloudy, although a few brighter intervals possible, as well as scattered outbreaks of light rain mostly found over northern counties. Winds will back to westerly 40 to 60 km/hr, lows near 2 C and highs near 9 or 10 C.

THURSDAY will continue to feel the influence of this weak warmer wedge for at least the morning as latest guidance has slowed the arrival of a second cold air mass, but northern counties could still get into that during the afternoon and evening, so for those areas, highs near 7 C could be replaced with colder readings by late in the day. Further south it will likely get back to around 9 or 10 C again after morning lows of 2 to 5 C. Passing showers could be rather heavy in a few places especially near any frontal boundary that forms across the north.

By FRIDAY and SATURDAY the entire country will be back into a second cold air mass that looks just about equal to the first one in terms of potential for low temperatures and wintry showers, however, it also looks a bit more unsettled with more of a cyclonic influence so that perhaps there will actually be more widespread wintry showers in this second interval, temperatures similar to the first (highs 5 to 8 C at best, some frosts at night).

Guidance beyond about next weekend is probably not very reliable at this point and it tends to suggest a cycle of weak warming intervals and reloading of the northerly chill at various points going forward, the timing is probably the least reliable aspect of that.

My local weather on Good Friday was mild with increasing high cloud that just about obscured the Sun by afternoon, although temperatures were comfortable at 12 C. Some snow-free valleys in the province had readings closer to 18 to 20 C. Hope you have a pleasant weekend before the cold arrives Sunday night. In most places Sunday should remain fairly pleasant until that front pushes through and that could be fairly late in the day on latest guidance.

[M.T. Cranium]

Sunday, 4 April, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 4 to 10 April 2021

-- Temperatures will average 3 to 5 deg below normal values (which are now roughly 11 for daytime highs and 3 for overnight lows.
-- Rainfall or precipitation of wintry forms will average about 25 per cent of normal moisture (probably more than the average amount of wintry mixtures though). In other words, this won't be a wet pattern but what does fall will be quite heavily slanted towards wintry mixtures.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values although some areas may be cloudier especially the north and northwest. Winds have been fairly light for several days, but will pick up steadily later today and become rather blustery at times all week, although no really strong winds are now expected.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out with some patchy fog and low cloud that may be a bit slow to clear in some inland northern counties. Sunshine should dominate the first half of the day before cloud increases steadily this afternoon from a frontal band advancing into the region from the north. This will eventually lead to some showers as winds become stronger, westerly 40 to 70 km/hr by late afternoon. Highs 11 to 14 C.

TONIGHT will bring a very rapid drop in temperatures starting during the evening hours in Ulster and trending towards the late overnight hours near the south coast. In all cases temperatures will fall below freezing by 1 or 2 degrees, except in a few coastal areas where lowest readings will be 1 to 3 C. Rain will turn to mixed wintry showers although some dry intervals will be mixed in. Winds northwest 50 to 80 km/hr. Chance of thunder in northern counties around midnight to 0600h. This may advance further south late overnight.

MONDAY will be unseasonably cold with passing wintry showers. Some places may stay essentially dry, in particular the south coast and parts of the southeast. Other places will have rather frequent passing showers of hail, snow and mixed forms of wintry precipitation. There could be a coating of 1-2 cms on some hills. Highs only 3 to 6 C with winds northwest to north 50 to 80 km/hr. Some inland counties could see more moderate wind speeds as the really strong winds are heading more for eastern Britain and the North Sea. Feeling quite cold due to the winds and prone to turning briefly colder during and after heavier wintry showers.

TUESDAY will see a continuation of cold, breezy and unsettled wintry conditions, lows -3 to -1 C and highs 4 to 7 C. The wind speeds may be reduced somewhat to northwest 40 to 60 km/hr. A few places will see brief accumulations of snow, partly cloudy skies will prevail with more generous sunny breaks near the south coast.

WEDNESDAY will start out clear and quite cold in the inland south with frosts and lows near -3 C. Cloud spreading in from the northwest will probably prevent frost elsewhere but lows of 2 to 4 C will feel cold enough. Some limited warming during the day in a weak mild sector will give highs of 9 to 11 C. Occasional light rain will develop, likely with heavier falls in Ulster and north Connacht (5-10 mm). Light to moderate westerly winds becoming stronger for some coastal areas late in the day (westerly 50 to 80 km/hr there).

THURSDAY will continue similar until mid-day when a cold front arrives and drops temperatures a second time, to rather similar readings to Monday-Tuesday. Highs for Thursday will occur around mid-day or even earlier in the north, 7 to 9 C, with a gradual fall by late afternoon and evening as winds turn more northerly. Wind speeds generally in the 40 to 60 km/hr range.

FRIDAY will be cold with passing wintry showers, lows near -1 C and highs near 7 C.

SATURDAY will also be quite cold with sleety showers, lows near -1 C and highs near 8 C.

Any slight moderation could be followed by a third cold spell around Sunday or Monday, timing at this point is not too reliable but this pattern looks prone to reloading at intervals for a while, so expect a pattern with the occasional milder day between cold spells of 2-3 days duration.

My local weather on Saturday was mostly cloudy until late afternoon when it cleared slightly, and generally rather mild with highs of about 13 C.

Happy Easter to everyone, enjoy the milder portions of the day as this may be the last day for a while when it will be pleasant to be outside.

[M.T. Cranium]

Monday, 5 April, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 5 to 11 April, 2021

-- Temperatures will average 3 to 5 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal, in fact this should be precipitation because part of it could take on wintry forms. The higher portions will likely be in Ulster and north Connacht.
-- Sunshine will average about 75 per cent of normal, somewhat lower in the north. Winds will increase to moderate and remain in that range most of the interval, infrequently gusting to strong levels, and occasionally dropping off to light inland.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy and cold with a mixture of rain, hail and snow showers with the trend being for rain showers being most frequent in the south and west, snow in Ulster and north Leinster, parts of Connacht, and hail or mixed wintry types in between. The coldest air has pushed into east Ulster this morning and is slowly winning out over the remnants of the milder air mass in place on the weekend. Temperatures are in the 1-3 C range in Ulster, and 3-5 C in most of Connacht and Leinster, while still about 4-7 C in Munster. In all cases, there won't be much of a daytime rise in these values, although a few degrees could be attained wherever the sun breaks through the cloud. Towards mid-afternoon there will be a second wave of cooling and temperatures could fall off rapidly during or after any heavy wintry showers. Winds northwest to north 40 to 70 km/hr will add a chill factor.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and very cold with a few more wintry showers in places, some accumulations of snow likely on higher ground in the north. Lows -3 to +1 C. The moderate northwest winds will continue in most places dropping off well inland.

TUESDAY will continue partly to mostly cloudy and cold with scattered wintry showers, moderate northwest to north winds (40-60 km/hr) and highs 4 to 7 C.

WEDNESDAY will turn somewhat milder, after a sharp frost across the inland south under clearing skies. Lows near -3 C and highs near 9 C for the south and some central counties. Further north, due to extensive cloud, the range will be more like 2 C to 7 C, and rain will begin during the afternoon and continue off and on overnight (5-15 mm expected).

THURSDAY will see further showers as this front begins to push south, with lows -1 to +3 C and highs 6 to 9 C. It will begin to turn quite cold again in Ulster by late in the afternoon, and in other regions overnight.

FRIDAY will be breezy and very cold with mixed wintry showers, and highs only 4 to 7 C.

SATURDAY morning could be exceptionally cold if skies remain clear, some guidance suggests lows below -5 C in the inland south and southeast. The daytime hours will remain quite cold with variable cloud and highs 3 to 7 C.

The further outlook at this point calls for colder than normal weather to persist; some earlier hints of a more variable regime seem to have faded in favour of cold dominating and only weak moderations of temperature between intervals of very cool weather (for mid-April). This could continue for at least another week.

My local weather on Easter Sunday was overcast with spits of light rain mid-day, but no real measurable amount, then partial clearing towards evening, and a bit colder than recent days with a high of about 7 C.

[M.T. Cranium]

Tuesday, 6 April, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 6 to 12 April 2021 --

Most of this section can apply to a two week interval now according to most guidance ...

-- Temperatures will average 3 to 5 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfalls will average about 25 per cent of normal, locally a bit higher in parts of Ulster, and by rainfall is meant the liquid equivalent of mixed wintry showers including some snowfall.
-- Sunshine will average about 75 per cent of normal values, possibly a bit lower in the north.


FORECASTS

TODAY will continue very cold with passing wintry showers, more frequent in Ulster and north Leinster. Once again, the ratio of rain to snow in these will be greatest for snow in Ulster and for rain near the Atlantic coasts (although not that frequently encountered). There may be an interval around mid-day with more widespread wintry showers in the eastern counties. Winds northwest to north 40 to 60 km/hr adding a chill to highs only 4 to 7 C.

TONIGHT some light rain or sleet will develop across parts of the north and west, and this will move further south while gradually decaying to wintry showers. Southern inland counties having longer clear intervals may see a sharp frost in places with lows to -3 C, other regions will drop to lows near +1 C with a few spots colder if they clear slightly before dawn.

WEDNESDAY will bring a mix of sun and cloud to most areas with some outbreaks of rain developing by afternoon and evening in the north. It will be a bit milder with highs 8 to 11 C. Winds becoming westerly 40 to 60 km/hr.

THURSDAY will continue somewhat milder with an interval of rain and moderate to strong westerly winds developing (50 to 70 km/hr). Morning lows near -1 C and afternoon highs near 9 C.

On FRIDAY another outbreak of colder air will move south across the country, possibly similar to yesterday's gradual deepening cold from north to south, with wintry showers and morning lows -1 to +2 C, afternoon highs near 5 C in the north to 8 C in the south. Friday night will produce some sharp frosts where skies clear in the inland south and east. Moderate northerly breezes 40 to 60 km/hr.

SATURDAY will continue very cold with wintry showers and some local accumulations of snow possible. Morning lows in the range of -5 to -2 C and afternoon highs only 3 to 7 C. North to northeast winds 30 to 50 km/hr after a calm interval for some inland areas during the early morning.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will continue cold and somewhat unsettled with scattered wintry showers, northerly breezes of about 40-60 km/hr, lows -1 to +2 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

This colder pattern seems to be locking in with no real moderation in temperatures shown on guidance going out as far as two weeks, so most of next week looks similar.

My local weather on Monday was sunny and quite mild with highs around 14 C.

[M.T. Cranium]

Wednesday, 7 April, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 7 to 13 April, 2021

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfalls will amount to 25-50 per cent of normal, and there will be some wintry mixtures involved.
-- Sunshine will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal, winds will continue rather moderate and mainly from westerly to northerly directions.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy, with outbreaks of light rain, sleety on some hills, although it will become slightly less cold today with highs reaching 8 to 10 C. A more persistent light rain is expected across northern counties by late afternoon and evening (5-8 mm likely with this). Breezes will be westerly 40 to 60 km/hr at times.

TONIGHT will continue mostly cloudy, outbreaks of light rain dying out, lows 3 to 5 C.

THURSDAY will bring variable amounts of cloud and some further showers, followed by a more organized frontal band of rain late in the day, moving from north to south with 5-10 mm amounts. Highs 9 to 11 C. Turning colder late in the day in Ulster and north Connacht, then this colder air spreading slowly south overnight, turning rain to sleet or wet snow in places.

FRIDAY will be cloudy with a few sunny breaks and cold, with lows 1 to 3 C and highs 5 to 9 C, colder values in the north. Mixed wintry showers will come and go, perhaps more frequently in the west this time, as winds will be northerly at 40 to 60 km/hr feeding wintry showers down the west coast.

SATURDAY will start out with a sharp frost in some areas, lows -5 to -1 C. Then snow showers may become fairly widespread by mid-day and afternoon, and it will remain unseasonably cold with highs 3 to 7 C in north to northeast winds of 40 to 60 km/hr.

SUNDAY will be cloudy and cold after a rather frosty start, lows -3 to +2 C, then highs near 7 or 8 C with mixed wintry showers becoming less widespread, in northerly breezes.

NEXT WEEK looks like continuing the cold trend with just a slight moderation in temperatures and probably more chance of cold rain than wintry mixtures, but still below seasonal averages with highs 8 to 10 C.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny and quite mild with highs near 15 C. Not much sign of spring around us at this elevation although most of the crusty old snow has disappeared in town, still on all the local hilltops however. Will be checking out the progress of spring down in the valley later on "today." (tomorrow really in my time zone)

[M.T. Cranium]

Thursday, 8 April, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 8 to 14 April 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 5 deg below normal, coldest in the inland southeast. There will be a gradual moderation of the more severe chill after Monday.
-- Rainfalls will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal in the north, 25 per cent near the south coast.
-- Sunshine will be about 75 per cent of normal, and that relies on Wednesday of next week being a sunny day, so more like 50 per cent up until then. Winds will continue to be moderate westerly to northerly.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few sunny intervals in the south. A few light showers will develop across the north, turning heavier by mid-day and afternoon. This cold front will begin to sink south overnight. Highs 8 to 11 C. Rainfalls with the front about 5-10 mm (only arriving in many areas tonight or early Friday).

TONIGHT will see a band of rain drifting further south, and precipitation may begin to turn to sleet or snow over parts of Ulster towards morning. Lows there 1-3 C, further south, 3-5 C.

FRIDAY will become cold again with mixed wintry showers, possibly some accumulations of snow in parts of the north and some central counties too. About 1-3 cm potential with these snow showers, northerly winds 40 to 60 km/hr and highs 4 to 7 C.

SATURDAY will start off with some sharp frosts in the inland southeast and some central counties, lows -5 to -1 C. The day will once again become rather cloudy with outbreaks of wintry showers and some further accumulations of snow possible. Highs 4 to 7 C.

SUNDAY will be slightly milder but still quite cold for the time of year, morning lows -2 to +3 C and afternoon highs around 8 C. Some further showers but less wintry.

MONDAY will be a similar day to today, partly to mostly cloudy with highs near 10 C and some rain mainly in the north.

The guidance is beginning to shift a bit with the next potential reload taking a more gentle turn and instead of a push of colder air, building in of high pressure that while frosty at night for the mid-week period may be capable of allowing sunshine to warm temperatures up to almost seasonal values, 10 to 12 C looks possible now. This trend will probably turn to a slow warming to values near or even above normal within the week that follows. We may see a payoff for this cold weather in terms of a warm spell near the end of the month. February and March both took that route so it would not come as a big surprise.

My local weather was overcast with light rain at times, and a bit cooler than previous days at 10 C.

[M.T. Cranium]

Friday, 9 April, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 9 to 15 April 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg below normal.
-- Rainfall will be around 25 to 50 per cent of normal, higher values in the north, and some portions of that wintry.
-- Sunshine will average 75 per cent of normal, and wind speeds will be generally moderate in the 30-50 km/hr range but some calm nights will occur especially inland.


FORECASTS

TODAY will see further outbreaks of light rain heading further south into Munster and south Leinster. A more wintry mixture of showers is feeding into Ulster and parts of north Connacht, north Leinster, and these will also make further progress south. A zone in between the front and the air mass showers will have the longest sunny intervals but these will fade away in the afternoon as cloud increases. Quite cold especially in the north where highs only 4 to 7 C, around 8 or 9 C in the south.

TONIGHT will see widespread partial clearing and some sharp frosts are expected in many areas of the south and central counties, lows -5 to -1 C. It will likely stay cloudier in the north with ongoing wintry showers and some accumulations of snow especially on hills in west Ulster. Lows there -2 to +1 C.

SATURDAY morning sunshine with the frost dissipating, then increasing cloud from north to south. Wintry showers will become rather widespread by mid-day in a moderate northerly flow (30-50 km/hr), highs only 3 to 7 C. Some accumulations of snow may develop further south during the afternoon. Once again skies will tend to clear up by evening and overnight there could be some more sharp frosts developing in the inland southeast in particular.

SUNDAY will then start out with the frosts and lows of -4 to +1 C, then variable amounts of cloud and only a few isolated showers, not as many of them wintry as temperatures will recover slightly to highs of 7 to 9 C.

NEXT WEEK will continue dry and rather cool for most of the time, a few weak disturbances will try to push in from the west but high pressure over Britain and central Europe will keep most of that rain either out to sea or confined to west and south coast counties if any does reach Ireland. Temperatures will continue a bit below average but it won't be quite as cold as this coming weekend. Highs will be generally around 9 to 11 C each day and some nights will have slight frosts. This pattern seems fairly long-lived but could slowly change more towards normal mid to late April temperatures eventually.

My local weather on Thursday was partly cloudy with some dark clouds over higher terrain, probably dropping snow there but we saw no precipitation and it would have been hail or rain as temperatures were around 7 or 8 C. The snow cover in the region now ranges from bare ground with slight spring vegetation response in the valleys to patchy snow locally to 25-40 cm snow cover remaining in the alpine around 1500 m asl. We were on a highway in that area around mid-afternoon and it was -2 C with a very cold wind blowing.