Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 6 February, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, and misty or foggy in some places, brief glimpses of the sun may be seen around mid-day, light northeast winds. Slight chance of onshore sleety showers near east and north coasts, but largely dry. Highs around 6 to 8 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloud seems likely to persist so it may not drop below freezing in many places, and there could be a few brief showers as temperatures hold near 1 or 2 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Not as cloudy but with any clearing, fog could develop and nights may once again become quite cold. This fog will be trapped under an inversion and could persist in some locations. Highs will reach 8 or 9 C where skies brighten, but will stay around 5 C in a few valleys where fog or mist are persistent. Winds almost calm -- the one thing that weather buffs may want to talk about will be the approach of the atmospheric pressure to record values, otherwise this won't be a very interesting weather period.

NEXT WEEK will continue this pattern, the models are obviously not as reliable with something as slow-moving as this situation so it's mainly a question of how many days the high will stagnate over Ireland, as well as minor details of weak upper level disturbances that will bring weak outbreaks of light rain once or twice during the week. Highs will remain in the rather cool range, 6 to 9 C mostly, but there could be slightly colder days depending on how cold it gets at night and then whether that cold air gets trapped in a foggy inversion.

Some places on the other hand might have quite pleasant conditions and the southwest will probably feel quite mild at times.

Over in Britain, the southeast got some scattered snowfalls in the past day and this will die out today except for some sleety afternoon showers that may redevelop briefly.

North America will see continued very cold weather in the east, mainly dry for today once the snow ends in eastern New England. It is very mild and wet in the far west. My local weather on Thursday was foggy with heavy rain and at least 50 mm fell, highs reached 13 C.

Please note, I am taking a few days of holiday time and my next forecast will appear around Wednesday of next week. Perhaps there will be some new weather by then, perhaps not.

200motels

Today
Sunny up north, fog and cloud will linger for a time this afternoon in many other areas. Temps 7 to 8 C in sunny spots but where fog lingers 3 or 4 C Winds will be light.

Tonight

Frost and fog for most tonight with temps ranging from -3 to +3 C.

Tomorrow
Not much change for tomorrow with fog lingering in most places.

Outlook
Tuesday a bit more sunshine with top temps 7 or 8C. Up to Friday much of the same as the high holds on, after that the models suggest that the weather will get more mobile with rain from time to time and also milder, but one model the GEM wants to bring back colder weather but it's out on its own with that as the ECM and GFS bring a westerly flow back, looking further ahead it looks like a very mild end to the month with not a lot of rain.

200motels

Just a quick update
Met Éireann has issued a status orange warning for dense fog tonight countrywide with visibility down to 100 metres in some places.

200motels

Today
A dry but rather boring dull cloudy day with a bit of sunshine in the southeast, temps 7 to 11 C.
Tonight
Tonight will be cold and dry, where cloud breaks frost will form, temps -2 to +3C.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow will be a bit brighter but a bit colder as well with temps 5 to 7 C.
Outlook
Up to Friday it will basically be the same as above but later on Friday a band of rain will cross the country clearing later with frost forming and a few wintry showers in the west and northwest. Saturday will be a cold and bright day with a few wintry showers. after that it looks going on the latest models as it will get mild with a westerly flow but up in the air at the moment as it's changing with every model run.

200motels

Tonight
Dry and mostly cloudy with temps ranging from -2 to 3 C, frost forming where any breaks occur in cloud cover.

Tomorrow
Mostly cloudy with a little light drizzle, temps 6 to 8 C.

Outlook
Continuing rather cloudy with patchy drizzle on Thursday with temps ranging from 6 to 9 C, later that night rain will spread eastwards in a freshing southeasterly wind, temps 2 to 4 C. On Friday rain will be heavy in the morning but will clear later as winds fall light with frost forming after dark. Saturday will be cool and dry with good sunny spells. Rain will spread eastwards later and clear on Sunday. Looking further ahead the early days of next week will be mild and changeable, after that it's hard to call but early signs from various models looks like it will get colder in stages but confidence in this is very low at the moment.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 11 February, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

Thanks to 200motels for providing some continuity in this thread. Had a nice break, glad to find some (minor) changes in the weather pattern.

TODAY ... Overcast with some occasional drizzle in some western counties. Light to moderate southeast to south winds, highs near 8 C.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, fog or mist patches, lows 2-4 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, milder, some rain in west by late evening. Highs about 10 C.

FRIDAY ... Periods of rain, 10-15 mm for most although 5-10 more likely in parts of Ulster and north Leinster. Winds backing to easterly then northeast, as low pressure drifts southeast across Ireland. Rain becoming more showery by afternoon and evening, morning lows 4-7 C and highs 8-10 C.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, showers becoming more isolated. Morning lows 1-3 C, patches of black ice could develop in a few rural areas, highs about 7 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy with some decent sunny intervals possible, increasing cloud west with rain by late in the day. Morning lows -2 to +2 C and highs 8-10 C.

MONDAY ... Rain becoming more showery, moderate southwest winds veering to northwest. Highs near 8 C.

OUTLOOK ... Generally settled and near normal temperatures, as high pressure returns and once again stalls over Ireland. Widespread fog is likely and while it could be somewhat on the cold side at times, at this point the guidance suggests a milder dry spell than the one now about to come to an end, highs may sometimes exceed 10 C with enough clearing.

Nothing very different from the above should be expected in Britain. Meanwhile, North America is seeing a steady stream of very cold outbreaks in eastern regions with snow events of varying intensity tracking through the Great Lakes into New England. This pattern will become extremely cold in the next five days with several chances for 10-20 cm snowfall events in New York, Boston and much of the northeast, together with temperatures that occasionally fall below -10 C and strong winds (-20 to -30 C in more inland and rural locations). Central regions will remain rather mild and the far west very mild. As to my local weather, I could mention that over the past weekend we saw some very heavy rain while driving south through Washington state, then reasonably dry weather and quite warm with record high temperatures that reached 18 C in Oregon. Since then, it has been overcast with outbreaks of light rain and quite foggy on Tuesday back at home base, with a high near 11 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 12 February, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals and milder with just a few brief outbreaks of drizzle or light rain, moderate southerly winds rising to 40-70 km/hr by late afternoon (60-90 km/hr west coast). Highs 8-10 C.

TONIGHT ... Outbreaks of rain will bring about 5-10 mm on average, fog will develop and temperatures should stay in the 4-7 C range. Winds easing but some gusts to 50 km/hr.

FRIDAY ... Morning rain becoming more showery as the day progresses, with some brighter intervals developing. Winds backing steadily to east and then northeast for most away from the southeast counties which will remain more variable. Some gusts to 70 km/hr along northern coasts, but winds generally rather slack closer to the low as it drifts across the country towards the Irish Sea. Highs will be around 7 or 8 C. Further rainfalls 5-10 mm.

SATURDAY ... Showers becoming more isolated during the early morning hours, then some clearing with risk of frost and black ice forming, lows in the range of -1 to +3 C. Sunny intervals in the daytime, isolated showers, winds moderate northerly at times. Rather cold with highs near 7 C.

SUNDAY ... Occasional rain in western counties, partly to mostly cloudy but mainly dry in the east. Lows about 2 C and highs near 8 C. Strong southerly winds developing in west by evening.

MONDAY ... Windy and turning colder during the morning hours, temperatures peaking near 8 C in the first part of the day, dropping back to 5-6 C with showers becoming somewhat wintry on higher ground at least. Winds SW veering to NW 50-80 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Gradually clearing across the south but remaining cloudy in the north, windy at times (westerly 50-80 km/hr) and near normal temperatures.

OUTLOOK ... Wednesday should be a dry, milder day, then another cold front will pass around Thursday with showers and gusty winds, with higher pressure building in towards the following weekend.

Nothing much different to report for Britain in this period, although at times it will tend to be windier for Scotland as lows track east across the Faeroes at times.

Meanwhile in North America, a weak snowfall event is traversing New England today, then a much stronger storm is due to develop rather explosively over the weekend. Energy for this is dropping south from very high latitudes reminiscent of last winter's frequent "polar vortex" situations, and temperatures will fall from slightly below freezing over the next few days to near record cold by Sunday and Monday. The resulting snowstorm could be very heavy in eastern New England and parts of Atlantic Canada. The impact on New York City will be more moderate and just a glancing blow is expected in Washington DC although they will see very strong winds and deep wind chill.

By contrast, the western half of North America continues to run very mild, with temperatures generally 5-10 degrees above normal. My local weather on Wednesday was overcast but dry with a high of 12 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 13 February, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rain for part of the morning in eastern counties, then brief clearing followed by outbreaks of showery rain in most regions, hit or miss 10-15 mm amounts by the end of the day. Winds backing around to east then northeast except for a slack cyclonic wind regime in the south, or calm conditions near the centre of low pressure. Highs about 8 to 10 C.

TONIGHT ... Partial clearing, showers more isolated, moderate northerly winds and lows 2-4 C but a few areas with slight frost or black ice in low-lying areas, fog patches towards dawn.

SATURDAY ... Sunny intervals, just a few isolated showers but most places dry, highs about 7 or 8 C.

SUNDAY ... Mostly cloudy, light rain spreading gradually into western counties but making slow progress further east, lows -1 to +3 C and highs 8-10 C. Moderate southerly winds developing becoming stronger near west coast by evening.

MONDAY ... Windy and turning colder with occasional showers, possibly becoming wintry on northern hills. Morning temperatures about 5-8 C then falling slightly by afternoon. Winds WSW to NW 50-70 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Cold at first, then milder in southwest winds. Lows -3 to +2 C and highs about 9 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Increasing cloud, mild. Lows 3-5 C and highs 10-12 C. Rain by evening in west.

THURSDAY ... Rain and turning somewhat colder again. Highs near 8 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy and rather cold with showers, highs near 7 C.

Will update forecasts for Britain tomorrow, nothing very different from the above. The big news in U.S. weather is a developing blizzard for New England. As one weak system moves away today, to produce 10-15 cm snowfalls in eastern Canada, this new storm will be forming over the Great Lakes, in advance of some very cold air sinking south from the high arctic. By the time this disturbance hits the east coast Saturday night, explosive storm development will create blizzard conditions in much of New England by Sunday. Since there is already a lot of snow (50-75 cm) on the ground, and another 30-50 cm possible, with very strong winds to 130 km/hr, a dangerous storm is likely. New York City, which has less snow on the ground, will also get only a moderate amount near 10 cm from this storm. Expect airport delays there but likely two to three day closures in New England. Further west, the core of this cold air will rush southeast to the Gulf coast with a freeze likely in northern Florida by Sunday. The west remains very mild, my local weather on Thursday was overcast with light rain and highs near 12 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 14 February, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Some lovely sunshine for parts of the north and west, spreading to other regions later. Highs 7-9 C with generally light winds.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals east, frost possible. Cloudy further west, rain near west coast by morning, 2-5 mm likely. Lows will range from -1 C in rural locations in Leinster, to +5 C near west coast.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloudiness for most regions as west coast rain bands weaken and redevelop from time to time without making very much eastward progress until late afternoon. Highs 8-10 C. Moderate southerly winds by late in the day, gusts to 70 km/hr.

MONDAY ... Morning showers, then cloudy with sunny intervals, a few more rather isolated showers turning wintry by late in the day on northern hills. Winds WSW veering to NW 50-70 km/hr. Lows 2-4 C and highs 6-8 C.

TUESDAY ... A frost start in some places, then turning milder with moderate to strong southwest winds in some northern coastal areas. Lows -1 to +3 C and highs 7-10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy and mild, lows 2-4 C and highs 8-12 C.

THURSDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers developing, mild at first then turning a bit colder. Highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... A generally bland weather pattern is indicated, some rain from time to time but also some settled days, temperatures generally near normal.

For Britain, this same pattern will prevail but today, the remnants of the Friday rainfall that moved through Ireland will continue at least to early afternoon. The system is weak and will bring about 5-10 mm rainfalls to most of southern England.

The northeast U.S. is bracing for a blizzard, the low is currently moving southeast across Lake Ontario and pulling extremely cold air from the central arctic islands south into the Great Lakes region. This record cold air mass will soon cover most of the eastern half of the U.S. with the low rapidly developing off Long Island. Snowfalls of 10-15 cm around New York City will increase to about 30 cm in Boston and 50 cm in Maine, 70 cm in southern New Brunswick (eastern Canada). Winds may gust over 120 km/hr and temperatures will remain well below -10 C as any warm air that the storm can find will remain off the coast except near Halifax Nova Scotia where the snow will change briefly to rain.

Further west, we are having one of the milder winters in my twenty years in this region (before that I lived in Ontario). Once again we had a high near 10 on Friday with a bit of light rain at times. This almost spring-like weather looks set to continue for another week.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 15 February, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Light rain at times for western counties, cloudy but dry further east until the rain, becoming heavier with time, moves further east. Eventually 5-10 mm rainfalls for most, 3-7 mm southeast mostly this evening. Moderate southerly winds developing, gusts to 70 km/hr. Highs 8-10 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain continuing to move slowly east, 5-10 mm for eastern counties. Winds southwesterly 50-70 km/hr, lows 3-5 C.

MONDAY ... Moderate westerly winds 50-70 km/hr, colder, showers becoming sleety or wintry on higher terrain in north. Highs 6-8 C except 2-5 C on northern hills.

TUESDAY ... A frosty start with lows -2 to +3 C. Partly cloudy and becoming milder during the day, highs about 10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with a few showers developing, mild. Lows 3-5 C and highs 10-12 C.

THURSDAY ... Showers or periods of rain, highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Some dry days but the trend will be towards more frequent rainfall and stronger winds at times with temperatures staying in the normal range.

Similar forecasts for Britain, meanwhile very cold in eastern parts of North America with heavy snow on the east coast today. Continuing very mild in the west. My local weather brought fog and patchy drizzle with a high of 12 C on Saturday.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 16 February, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Moderate westerly winds 50-70 km/hr, colder, showers of rain or hail, becoming sleety or wintry on higher terrain in north. Highs 7-9 C except 3-6 C on northern hills.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, frosty inland south and central counties, lows near -2 C there and +3 C around coastal regions. Just a few brief showers near northwest coasts, otherwise mainly dry.

TUESDAY ... A frosty start with lows -2 to +3 C. Partly cloudy and becoming milder during the day, highs about 10 C. Some afternoon showers may develop over Connacht and west Ulster, higher parts of west Munster.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with a few showers developing, mild. Lows 3-5 C and highs 10-12 C. Heavier rain by evening and overnight will give 10-20 mm.

THURSDAY ... Overnight periods of rain, then showers, not quite as mild with highs near 10 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, showers turning to periods of rain later, highs near 9 C.

OUTLOOK ... Rather cool and unsettled with a gradual increase in wintry showers at higher elevations to about mid-week (25th Feb), highs will average around 6 or 7 C at lower elevations. Spring is coming in very gradually.

The forecasts for Britain will be generally similar. Over parts of eastern Canada the weekend blizzard is moving out today leaving behind bitterly cold but sunny conditions and temperatures -15 to -25 C that will also cover most of New England and the northeast, eastern Great Lakes regions. A weaker storm is forming over Missouri to move east to Virginia late tonight, bringing a swath of 10-20 cm snowfalls to Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, Washington D.C., and Maryland into Delaware and southern New Jersey. Lighter snows will develop further north. This storm will develop a secondary with eventually more power and all of that will hit New England (again) to add to the already record-breaking snow depths which are now around one metre or even 1.25 metres in places. The snow depth situation is similar in parts of eastern Canada but not as bad from western CT to the Midwest although above normal for late February. The west continues very mild (very warm in desert southwest regions). My local weather on Sunday was sunny and the high was around 11 C. Our spring vegetation looks like it wants to get going although still rather dormant.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 17 February, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Watch out for black ice in a few parts of the inland south after frost developed overnight, but this should be limited (west Cork, Limerick, Carlow and a few other locations) ... then most of the day will be partly to mostly cloudy with a few light showers encountered near Atlantic coasts, in gradually increasing southwest winds 40-70 km/hr by afternoon. Highs 8-10 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, mild with lows about 5-7 C, a few showers or periods of light rain mostly western half of the country, 3-5 mm of rain in some places.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy and mild with outbreaks of light rain, moderate south to southwest winds. A heavier rain is likely by evening adding about 10 mm to earlier amounts of 3-5 mm. Highs will reach 11 or 12 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy, a few more showers or periods of light rain, 5-10 mm on average and lows 3-5 C, highs 9-11 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with sunny breaks, showers, steady light rain at times by late in the day in the south, highs near 10 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy and rather cold with passing showers, some of them containing hail, highs near 7 C, winds WNW 50-80 km/hr.

SUNDAY ... Rain at times, windy and briefly milder (11-13 C) but turning cold again later in the day.

OUTLOOK ... Windy and cold to start next week, some wintry showers may return to the picture with highs only 4-6 C. Milder late in the week, the first look at early March suggests a windy pattern with near normal temperatures.

Similar forecasts for Britain, meanwhile as New England and eastern Canada dig out (80 cm of snow fell at Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island, a daily record at a location that has seen many heavy storms), a 20-30 cm snowfall event extended the snow pack further south into Kentucky and Virginia on Monday, and this will continue to mid-morning in Maryland, D.C. and Delaware into southern New Jersey, largely missing NYC (2-4 cm at most) and this time Boston gets a break too while Cape Cod may see 15 cm. Further disturbances will form on the trailing fronts and head north into New England later this week, while exceptional cold moves steadily south to the Gulf coast. By Thursday daytime highs may be below freezing in parts of Georgia and Alabama (normal would be 15 C). Lows of -20 C are predicted over the new snow cover in the rural parts of Virginia. And it remains very mild out west with sunshine and highs near 12 C here on Monday.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 18 February, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


Astronomy note: New moon occurs today at 11:47 p.m., and it is quite close to being a perigeean new moon (lunar perigee occurs about seven hours later). No eclipse this month, but as you may have heard, a total eclipse of the Sun takes place on 20th of March and Ireland is just south of its track, while the Faeroes will get the total phase, at about 0930h local time.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy and mild with outbreaks of light rain more frequent in west and north, moderate south to southwest winds 40-70 km/hr. A heavier rain is likely by evening adding about 10 mm to earlier amounts of 3-5 mm. Highs will reach 11 or 12 C.

TONIGHT ... Periods of rain may become heavy in the north, 10-15 mm expected there, 5-10 mm across the south, followed by clearing before dawn and blustery southwest winds 50-80 km/hr. Lows 4-6 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, a few more showers or periods of light rain developing, 5-10 mm on average and highs 9-11 C. Not as windy by afternoon and evening.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with sunny breaks, showers, steady light rain at times by late in the day in the south, highs near 10 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy and rather cold with passing showers, some of them containing hail, highs near 7 C, winds WNW 50-80 km/hr except some gusts to about 110 km/hr possible in exposed coastal regions.

SUNDAY ... Rain at times, windy (SW to W 70-100 km/hr) and briefly milder from early morning to mid-day (11-13 C) but turning cold again later in the day.

MONDAY ... Windy and cold (NW 50-90 km/hr), widespread wintry showers and temperatures steady around 4-6 C.

TUESDAY ... Continued cold and windy with mixed or wintry showers, temperatures in the range of -1 to +5 C.

OUTLOOK ... Considerably milder by mid-week, becoming very windy at times around 26th and 27th, then continued unsettled and breezy into early March with near normal temperatures.

For Britain, the pattern will be similar but Friday night into Saturday could bring heavier rainfalls to southern England as low pressure develops rapidly after passing south coast of Ireland Friday afternoon.

North America continues to see a huge contrast from east to west, parts of the east have record cold and/or snow depths, although not much by way of new snow expected today (3-5 cm in parts of the inland northeast), a bit more may develop Thursday (10-15 cm in parts of New England). Temperatures will challenge daily records as far south as Georgia and Alabama by tonight and tomorrow. But in the west, the weather is more typical of late April, your obedient servant here was on the golf course most of the day and feeling the warmth of the sun as the high soared to 17 C, a daily record. There is a remarkable lack of snow on the local mountains even as high up as 1800 metres conditions look more like early summer (from down below at least), although distant Mount Baker which reaches 3000 metres has plenty of snow.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 19 February, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, a few more showers or periods of light rain developing, slight risk of thunder, 5-10 mm on average and highs 9-11 C. Winds WSW about 40-70 km/hr, but somewhat less windy by afternoon and evening.

TONIGHT ... Showers more isolated, a few clear intervals, colder. Scattered frost inland, lows -1 to +3 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with sunny breaks, showers, steady light rain at times by late in the day in the south, highs 7-9 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy and rather cold with passing showers, some of them containing hail, highs near 8 C, winds WNW 50-70 km/hr except some gusts to about 100 km/hr possible in exposed coastal regions.

SUNDAY ... Rain at times, windy (SW to W 70-110 km/hr) and briefly milder from early morning to mid-day (11-13 C) but turning cold again later in the day in blustery westerly winds.

MONDAY ... Windy and cold (NW 50-90 km/hr), widespread wintry showers and temperatures steady around 4-6 C.

TUESDAY ... Continued cold and windy with mixed or wintry showers, temperatures in the range of -1 to +5 C.

OUTLOOK ... Considerably milder by mid-week, becoming very windy again around Wednesday night into Thursday 26th, then continued unsettled and breezy into early March with near normal temperatures.

Will resume forecasts for Britain and North America tomorrow, see previous forecast for relevant details still in effect ... my local weather on Wednesday turned cloudy and we may see a bit of light rain today, highs both days around 10 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 20 February, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with sunny breaks, showers, steady light rain at times by late in the day in the south, highs 7-9 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain gradually ending across the south, partial clearing, isolated showers may continue near west and north coasts, moderate west winds and rather cold, lows 2-4 C. Some patchy frost and icy road conditions may develop inland north and central counties.

SATURDAY ... Windy and rather cold with passing showers, some of them containing hail, highs near 8 C, winds WNW 50-70 km/hr except some gusts to about 100 km/hr possible in exposed coastal regions.

SUNDAY ... Rain at times, windy (SW to W 70-110 km/hr) and briefly milder from early morning to mid-day (11-13 C) but turning cold again later in the day in blustery westerly winds.

MONDAY ... Windy and cold (NW 50-90 km/hr), widespread wintry showers and temperatures steady around 4-6 C.

TUESDAY ... Continued cold and windy with mixed or wintry showers, temperatures in the range of -1 to +5 C although it may improve for parts of the west later in the day and reach 8 C there under partly cloudy skies.

OUTLOOK ... Considerably milder by mid-week, becoming very windy again around Wednesday night into Thursday 26th, then continued unsettled and breezy into early March with near normal temperatures.

Britain will see generally similar conditions to the above. Severe cold continues in the eastern U.S. and a new storm is developing today near Kansas and Oklahoma -- this will spread sleet or snow eastward but will bring milder temperatures by the weekend to some parts of the east and southeast before another cold plunge late Sunday. This may create ice storm conditions in parts of the inland northeast. Meanwhile the west remains very mild. My local weather on Thursday was cloudy with a high near 11 C, only a few scattered raindrops and nothing measurable.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 21 February, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Windy and rather cold with passing showers, some of them containing hail and on high ground some snow especially this morning, as later on highs will be near 6-8 C, winds WNW 50-70 km/hr except some gusts to about 100 km/hr possible in exposed coastal regions.

TONIGHT ... Any lingering cold air will be flushed out of the northeast soon after sunset, and temperatures will tend to rise in most locations during the night reaching 10-12 C by morning in a strong SW wind rising to 60-90 km/hr with periods of rain that could begin as wet snow or sleet in parts of the inland northeast, 5-10 mm likely by morning. Some fog on hills after midnight.

SUNDAY ... Rain at times, windy (SW to W 70-110 km/hr) and briefly milder from early morning to mid-day (11-13 C) but turning cold again later in the day (about 5-7 C) in blustery westerly winds. Showers may turn a bit wintry in the northwest by evening.

MONDAY ... Windy and cold (NW 50-90 km/hr in general but 80-120 km/hr possible in Mayo, Sligo, Donegal and nearby parts of other counties), widespread wintry showers and temperatures steady around 4-6 C.

TUESDAY ... Continued cold and windy with mixed or wintry showers, temperatures in the range of -1 to +5 C although it may improve for parts of the west later in the day and reach 8 C there under partly cloudy skies.

WEDNESDAY ... Milder with rain at times, moderate westerly winds and highs near 10 C. Strong winds may follow overnight or on Thursday, with a gradual cooling trend once again by THURSDAY and mixed wintry showers at times.

OUTLOOK ... A somewhat more settled period should follow but confidence in model output is low given the vast differences in their scenarios further west by the end of February. GFS shows strong warming in the northeast U.S. while other models are holding to the current pattern.

Just briefly, previous forecasts for Britain and North America continue valid, snow and sleet will move across the northeast U.S. this weekend followed by a return of the very cold, dry air masses from the arctic, and the next one along will try to spread its influence a bit further west, bringing Colorado and the western plains into the colder camp for a few days but leaving the far west mild to warm. My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy and mild with highs near 11 C.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 22 February, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for heavy rainfalls today (15-25 mm) followed by very strong winds tonight and Monday, easing only gradually on Tuesday. At their peak, expected early to mid-day Monday, these westerly gales will produce gusts to 130 km/hr in exposed locations in the northwest, and 110 km/hr elsewhere. There could be some minor damage to trees, roof tiles and any loose objects and also there could be one or two road closures due to mudslides or stream overflows in or near hilly areas.


TODAY ... Intervals of heavy rain this morning and mid-day moving gradually east, slight risk of thunder, 15-25 mm rain (sleet on some northern hills) ... becoming quite mild around mid-day, highs 11-13 C, and also becoming windy as southerly 50-80 km/hr winds veer to southwest 60-110 km/hr. Some brief clearing may develop in western counties before sunset.

TONIGHT ... Very windy or stormy with peak gusts to 130 km/hr by early morning in counties near Donegal Bay. Elsewhere peak gusts near 110 km/hr as winds continue to veer more to westerly. Squally showers with slowly falling temperatures near 7 C midnight and 3-5 C by morning, so feeling very cold later on. 5-8 mm further rainfall on average.

MONDAY ... Very windy or stormy (WNW 70-110 km/hr except 80-130 km/hr in northwestern counties). 5-10 mm rainfalls but turning to sleet, hail or snow at higher elevations. Highs 5-7 C.

TUESDAY ... Not quite as windy, but still rather cold and unsettled with passing showers of rain or hail, winds WNW 50-80 km/hr, lows 1-3 C and highs 5-7 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Intervals of rain, milder again in southwest winds 50-80 km/hr, lows 2-4 C and highs 8-11 C.

THURSDAY ... Colder with mixed wintry showers, strong west to northwest winds gusting to 100 km/hr or higher. Highs near 6 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, a few showers, cold, highs near 6 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy and milder briefly, highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Colder for Sunday and Monday, the first two days of March, in a strong west to northwest wind, mixed wintry showers may return. Highs 5-7C.

Over in Britain, this morning is still rather cold as the milder air has not pushed in yet. An interval of sleet may break out in central England and Wales before the windy, mild and wet warm sector of this storm arrives there. The rest of the week will be similar to the above forecast with the usual lag in timing as systems move east.

North America has seen yet another snowstorm in eastern regions, and this turned to freezing rain around the I-95 corridor from DC to NYC, creating some very treacherous road conditions. Snowfalls of 10-20 cms were fairly widespread before the changeover. This storm is weakening over southern New England and will dissipate into fog and freezing drizzle by tonight as much colder air seeps back from a strong, very cold high near Iowa and Missouri. Further west, it has turned colder now as far west as Utah and eastern Idaho, but the west coast remains mild to warm, and dry. I was out on the golf course in sunshine and 10 C temperatures on Saturday.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 23 February, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT continues for very strong winds, gusts to 130 km/hr will soon begin to affect parts of Connacht and west Ulster, then later today gusts to 120 km/hr will reach west Munster as the northern winds ease slightly. Eastern counties can expect occasional gusts to 110 km/hr. Widespread snow showers should retreat to higher elevations as the day progresses, then reappear later tonight into Tuesday.

TODAY ... Very windy or stormy (WNW 70-110 km/hr except 80-130 km/hr in northwestern counties and some afternoon gusts to 120 km/hr in west Munster as the zone of strongest winds will tend to shift south slowly). Expect blustery showers, some thunder and hail, and 5-10 mm rainfalls with widespread morning snow or sleet at first (1-3 cm in some places) then by mid-day at lower elevations, mainly rain or hail, with sleet and snow at higher elevations as temperatures slowly fight their way up to about 5-7 C although always in danger of falling back during heavier squalls. Some coastal flooding possible around times of high tides as these will run 1.5 metres above tide table values due to storm surge activity on the west coast, less problematic elswhere although certainly higher than the tables.

TONIGHT ... Continued very windy although the more severe gusts less frequent, peaking around 110 km/hr, from the northwest. Mixed wintry showers, with widespread sleet or wet snow in the mix. Lows zero to 3 C.

TUESDAY ... Not quite as windy, but still rather cold and unsettled with passing showers of rain or hail, but with some persistent snow in places especially higher parts of the north and west, with winds WNW 60-90 km/hr, lows 0-3 C and highs 5-7 C. Some rather prolonged intervals of moderate rain may develop by afternoon dropping 10 mm or thereabouts.

WEDNESDAY ... Intervals of rain or a few showers, milder again in southwest winds 50-80 km/hr, lows 2-4 C and highs 8-11 C.

THURSDAY ... Colder with mixed wintry showers, strong west to northwest winds gusting to 100 km/hr or higher. Highs near 6 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, a few showers, cold, highs near 6 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy and milder briefly, highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Colder for Sunday and Monday, the first two days of March, in a strong west to northwest wind, mixed wintry showers may return. Highs 5-7C.

Britain will have broadly similar conditions to the above. The weather across most of North America is dominated by a sprawling arctic high now situated near St Louis, Missouri. Across the south, cold northeast winds are keeping temperatures in the 5-7 C range with scattered sleet or drizzle. In central latitudes the highs will be generally -5 to -10 C with sunshine, and further north it's a bit colder still although not as far below regional averages for them, in moderate southwest winds and outbreaks of snow in some places. The far west had a brief visit from the frontal bands pushing west through Utah and Nevada but it remains mild and dry in Washington state and British Columbia as the warm ridge tries to stay close to the coast despite all of the westward pressure against it. Eventually a new pattern is likely to develop with a broad trough in central regions and more seasonal conditions developing in the east, which at this late stage of winter could mean that the massive snow packs could come under some melting pressures within a week or two, but no sign of that happening this week. My local weather on Sunday was cloudy with sunny breaks and the high was about 10 C.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 24 February, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Not quite as windy, but still rather cold and unsettled with passing showers of rain or hail, some with thunder, but with some persistent snow in places especially higher parts of the north and west, winds somewhat more tolerable at WNW 60-90 km/hr, further moderation of these gusty winds by afternoon, highs 5-7 C. Some rather prolonged intervals of moderate rain may develop by afternoon dropping 10 mm or thereabouts, in bands that are likely to become established between Galway and Wexford, not as much rain is expected on either side of that zone.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy and rather cold for first half of the night, then overcast with light rain, mountain snow or sleet possible. Lows 2-4 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Intervals of rain or a few showers, milder again in southwest winds 50-80 km/hr, and highs 8-11 C. Turning colder by late afternoon west, evening in eastern counties.

THURSDAY ... Colder with mixed wintry showers, strong west to northwest winds gusting to 100 km/hr or higher. Highs near 6 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, a few showers, cold, highs near 7 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy and milder briefly, with outbreaks of rain, and highs near 10 C.

SUNDAY ... Strong winds may develop with showers and temperatures around 9 or 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Colder for Sunday and Monday, the first two days of March, in a strong west to northwest wind, mixed wintry showers may return. Highs 5-7C. Some improvements are likely beyond that, although very long-term guidance returns some cold days, so spring may be rather slow to develop.

Forecasts for Britain and North America can be checked in the previous forecast post, meanwhile, my local weather on Monday was near perfect with sunshine and highs reaching 9 C after a slightly frosty start.
___________________________________________________

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 25 February, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly dry this morning but light rain or a few showers will begin to spread in from the west by mid-day, and it will be milder again in southwest winds 50-80 km/hr, and highs 8-11 C.

TONIGHT ... Showers, mild for the first part of the night, then turning colder with partly cloudy skies developing, moderate westerly winds 50-70 km/hr. Lows about 2-4 C.

THURSDAY ... Colder with mixed wintry showers, strong west to northwest winds gusting to 100 km/hr or higher. Highs near 6 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, a few showers, cold for north and east but turning somewhat milder in west and south, highs near 7 C in northeast, 9-11 C in south and west.

SATURDAY ... Windy and milder briefly, with outbreaks of rain, and highs near 11 or 12 C.

SUNDAY ... Strong winds may develop with showers and temperatures around 9 or 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Colder for Sunday and Monday, the first two days of March, in a strong west to northwest wind, mixed wintry showers may return. Highs 5-7C. Some improvements are likely beyond that, with some guidance showing a dry spell developing with near normal temperatures likely (highs near 10 C by that early portion of March).

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with a few breaks, and pleasant with highs near 9 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 26 February, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Windy (W 50-80 km/hr) and turning colder during the morning, showers becoming mixed or wintry at times in higher parts of the west and north. Temperatures will be steady around 5 ot 6 C closer to sea level, 3 to 4 C on hills. Some accumulations of 3-5 cm snow later on hills in Mayo, Sligo, Donegal, nearby parts of other counties.

TONIGHT ... Snow showers turning back to rain before dawn, as temperatures rise slightly from 1-3 C around midnight to 3-5 C by morning, as winds back to southwest 40-70 km/hr.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with a few breaks, showers or intervals of light rain, snow confined to highest elevations. Highs 7-9 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy (SSW 50-80 km/hr) and milder, with risk of strong wind gusts developing by late afternoon or evening (W 70-110 km/hr). Milder with highs around 11 C.

SUNDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, passing showers, windy at times. A second period of strong wind gusts is possible as another low moves rapidly east across the country during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs around 9 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY are looking very cold with the risk of some wintry showers developing in northwesterly winds. Highs may be confined to 4-6 C and morning lows may be below -2 C in some areas. Some snow may fall especially on higher ground.

OUTLOOK calls for a more settled period that will become slightly milder after a cold start mid-week. Winds will be generally southeast to east during this spell as high pressure develops over the North Sea.

For Britain, all of these fast-moving changes will probably be felt a few hours to half a day later but with that in mind, a similar outlook in general.

North America is currently under the influence of sprawling arctic high pressure in the Great Lakes region, so the storm track is across the inland south and southeastern states, bringing cold rainfalls to areas south of Atlanta and a wintry mix north of there, which may brush past Washington D.C. today but should remain largely offshore further north. The west remains fairly mild although closer to seasonal averages than last week. My local weather on Wednesday was overcast with light rain in the afternoon, and a high of 8 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 27 February, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with outbreaks of rain developing, becoming heavy at times by afternoon. 10-15 mm rainfalls and highs 9-12 C. Winds SW 40-70 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, showers, moderate southwest winds, lows 4-6 C.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks, showers, rather windy most of the day, then strong gusts to 110 km/hr likely by afternoon west, evening northeast. This event may be more moderate in the south (80 km/hr). Highs about 9 C.

SUNDAY ... Continued windy and not as mild with squally showers, some with hail or thunder. Snow on higher elevations. Morning lows 2-5 C and afternoon highs near 7 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will become colder with mixed wintry showers, quite heavy and frequent in western and northern counties. Some accumulations of snow are likely there. Highs 4-7 C and morning lows -2 to +1 C. Moderate west to northwest winds gusting to 80 km/hr with a risk of higher gusts at times around Monday night.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY should see gradual improvements to more settled conditions, some frosts but daytime sunshine boosting highs to 7-9 C.

Expect a similar pattern and outlook for Britain. In North America, cold high pressure covers most of the eastern and central U.S. and Canada, while a cloudy and somewhat unsettled near normal regime holds across the west. My local weather on Thursday was overcast but dry with a high near 10 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 28 February, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for strong winds late afternoon and evening, gusts to 130 km/hr in northern counties and exposed west coast, 110 km/hr elsewhere. ... Squally showers and possible thunderstorms during this storm ... ADVANCE ALERT for wintry conditions Monday and Tuesday, especially over higher parts of the north and west where some heavy snowfalls may develop in gusty winds.


TODAY ... Becoming windy by late morning as south to southwest winds increase to 50-80 km/hr. Stronger winds will develop by late afternoon in western counties with gusts to 130 km/hr possible there. Periods of rain may become thundery in some parts of the south-central and inland western counties this afternoon. Highs 9-11 C. Rainfalls about 15 mm.

TONIGHT ... Very windy (SW 80-130 km/hr in exposed locations, 70-110 km/hr elswhere) with squally showers but also some dry intervals. Lows about 3-5 C.

SUNDAY ... Colder with passing squally showers, some turning wintry over higher ground in north and west. Winds westerly 60-90 km/hr and highs about 6 or 7 C.

MONDAY ... Windy and very cold with mixed wintry showers, some heavy snowfalls developing over higher parts of Connacht and Ulster, also on some hills in Munster and Leinster. Sleet more likely at lower elevations. Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr. Lows 1-3 C and highs 4-7 C.

TUESDAY ... Very windy and cold with outbreaks of heavy snow developing over many parts of Connacht and Ulster. Blizzard conditions could come and go especially on higher terrain, 3-7 cm of snow could accumulate there. Further south and east, passing snow showers may leave occasional coatings of 1-3 cm. Lows 0-2 C and highs 4-7 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Turning steadily milder in strong southwest winds. Rain developing towards afternoon west, evening east. Morning lows -1 to +3 C and late afternoon or evening highs about 10 C.

THURSDAY ... Windy and turning colder, squally showers, highs near 7 C.

OUTLOOK ... Further unsettled and windy weather with large swings in temperature as lows pass to the north during the weekend. There may be somewhat fewer showers in the south as high pressure will try to edge into that part of the country.

WATCH FOR AN UPDATE ON THE APPROACHING WINDSTORM AROUND 4 p.m. and check the ongoing storm thread for other views.

These fast-moving and increasingly cold systems will also affect most of Britain and Scotland may become extremely windy by about midnight tonight, and again on Tuesday. Snow on Monday and Tuesday could be quite widespread in northern parts of Britain but the south will likely see more rain or hail than snow at least away from higher hills in Wales.

Over eastern and central North America, very cold high pressure dominates this weekend. A slowly developing storm over the Great Basin region of the inland west will move gradually into the plains states and draw milder air north. A rather serious flood risk will develop around Tuesday for the heavy snow pack in New England and other regions of the Midwest and inland northeast. The entire snow pack will not disappear but large parts of it will be running off as temperatures reach 10-15 C and rain falls on the pack.

My local weather was cloudy with sunny breaks on Friday with a high of 10 C.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Sat 28 Feb 2015 _ 3:45 p.m.
____________________________________

Expect a period of much stronger wind gusts to develop by about 6 p.m. to 11 p.m. in parts of the northwest, as the rather small but intense disturbance passes just north of Donegal Bay around 6-8 p.m. and exposes the northwest coasts to an area of tighter gradients located in the southwest quadrant of the storm. There may only be a slight uptick in winds further south. At this point, I think the "orange" or level two status weather alert would probably apply mainly to coastal areas between Galway Bay and Malin Head but be aware further south that it could become quite gusty at times this evening.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 1st of March, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for widespread snow showers developing later today, and throughout Monday and Tuesday. Although higher parts of the north and west are most likely to see accumulations (3-7 cm at times) there could be significant snow just about anywhere in the country during this cold, unsettled period.

TODAY ... Colder with passing squally showers, some turning wintry over higher ground in north and west. Winds westerly 60-90 km/hr and highs about 6 or 7 C.

TONIGHT ... Windy and very cold with snow showers becoming more widespread, 2-4 cm accumulations possible in parts of Connacht, west Ulster and higher parts of west Munster. Lows -1 to +2 C. Winds WSW 50-80 km/hr.

MONDAY ... Windy and very cold with mixed wintry showers, some heavy snowfalls developing over higher parts of Connacht and Ulster, also on some hills in Munster and Leinster. Sleet more likely at lower elevations. Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr. Highs 4-7 C.

TUESDAY ... Very windy and cold with outbreaks of heavy snow developing over many parts of Connacht and Ulster. Blizzard conditions could come and go especially on higher terrain, 3-7 cm of snow could accumulate there. Further south and east, passing snow showers may leave occasional coatings of 1-3 cm. Lows 0-2 C and highs 4-7 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Turning steadily milder in strong southwest winds. Rain developing towards afternoon west, evening east. Morning lows -1 to +3 C and late afternoon or evening highs about 10 C.

THURSDAY ... Windy and turning a bit colder again late morning west and afternoon east, squally showers, lows 3-5 C and highs near 7 or 8 C.

FRIDAY ... Somewhat milder again, some guidance is suggesting showers while other indications say dry and milder. Highs probably 8-10 C.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY (7-8 March) could turn out quite pleasant and mild according to the European model. Other guidance says to expect strong winds and showers but also mild. So the most certain part of the forecast seems to be highs in the 11-14 C range.

My local weather on Saturday was clear and rather cool to start the day, sunny and a bit milder by afternoon, the high reaching about 9 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 2 March, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for widespread snow showers today and tomorrow, some of these prolonged and heavy. Accumulations of 5-10 cms possible over northern inland regions both days, higher parts of west and more isolated areas further east too. Almost all parts of the country will see some snow and temporary coatings of 1-3 cms. Roads becoming very slippery, expect slow travel especially outside of larger cities which may remain just a bit warmer allowing falling snow to melt after some temporary coverings. Higher suburban areas however could see longer intervals of snow cover. Also, strong winds and risk of thunder and hail during this two-day cold spell. Rapid moderation is expected on Wednesday.

TODAY ... Windy and very cold with mixed wintry showers, some heavy snowfalls developing over higher parts of Connacht and Ulster (5-8 cms) and also on some hills in Munster and Leinster. Sleet more likely at lower elevations but some accumulations of 1-3 cms. Winds westerly 60-90 km/hr. Highs 4-7 C but temperatures may fall back to 1-3 C during and after snowfalls. Risk of hail, thunder.

TONIGHT and TUESDAY ... Very windy (WSW to NW 60-100 km/hr) and cold with outbreaks of heavy snow developing over many parts of Connacht and Ulster. Blizzard conditions could come and go especially on higher terrain, 5-10 cm of snow could accumulate there. Further south and east, passing snow showers may leave occasional coatings of 1-3 cm. Lows 0-2 C and highs about 4-5 C but temperatures falling back during snowfalls to 2-3 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Turning steadily milder in strong westerly winds backing to southwest by late in the day. Sporadic light rain developing towards afternoon west, evening east. Morning lows -1 to +3 C and late afternoon or evening highs about 10 C. Mid-day temperatures about 8 C west, 4 C east.

THURSDAY ... Windy and turning a bit colder again late morning west and afternoon east, one source saying squally showers may develop while other guidance indicates cloudy with scattered light showers, so at any rate not a clear or dry outlook, lows 3-5 C and highs near 8 or 9 C.

FRIDAY ... Somewhat milder again, some guidance is suggesting showers while other indications say dry and milder. Highs probably 8-10 C. As you can see there is some disagreement between the leading models and this will be an interesting test of which one is doing a better job, the more unsettled the period Thursday to Saturday turns out, the advantage goes to the GFS model over the European, and vice versa. Some other models are probably closer to the European scenario but not quite as mild.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY (7-8 March) could turn out quite pleasant and mild according to the European model. Other guidance says to expect strong winds and showers but also mild. So the most certain part of the forecast seems to be highs in the 11-14 C range. Beyond that, most indications would suggest quite a mild week (9-13 March) with highs in the low to mid teens.

This same scenario (and attendant uncertainty later in the period) also applies to Britain, snow showers will be more frequent from the Midlands north, as it may be just mild enough to stay mostly rain or hail in most parts of the south today and Tuesday, but tonight could see more widespread snow there.

Eastern and some central parts of North America have just experienced the coldest February in over a century, but a brief mild spell mid-week threatens to melt some of the snow cover and create some urban flooding and roof damage from the combined melting and snow saturation. This mild spell will peak around Wednesday as a storm now organizing in the central Rockies moves east across the north-central U.S. Very cold air will return after this event. Meanwhile the west remains pleasantly mild. My local weather on Sunday was overcast but as the previous night had been clear it was rather chilly until mid-afternoon when it finally reached about 8 C.

_________________ == _________________ == _________________

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 3 March, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT continues for widespread heavy snow showers ... there may be some slight mixing later today but many parts of Ireland will continue to experience heavy snow showers with thunder, while a few lower-elevation locations may see more mixing to rain, sleet or hail. Accumulations of 5-10 cms may redevelop from time to time on higher ground especially but 2-5 cms is quite possible even at relatively low elevations particularly northern and western counties. Quite windy at times today also, gusts to near 100 km/hr, causing blowing snow and near-blizzard conditions in some open areas. It should be noted that much milder weather is about to set in tomorrow and no early return to these wintry conditions is foreseen.


TODAY ... Very cold and windy with heavy snow showers, some with thunder, gusts to 100 km/hr from the SW veering to WNW later, and only limited mixing of the snow with rain, hail or sleet at lower elevations by afternoon. Accumulations of 5-10 cms possible over higher parts of Connacht and Ulster, and 2-5 cms elsewhere including some lower elevations at times. Highest temperatures could reach 5 or 6 C but temperatures will tend to oscillate with the passing snow showers, falling off to 1-3 C during and after the snow. Some intense thunder and lightning is quite likely given how unstable this air mass will become under daytime heating of the March sun.

TONIGHT ... Mixed wintry showers rapidly dying out, some further light snow accumulations possible in Ulster and north Connacht though. Temperatures steady around -1 to +2 C may rise somewhat towards morning as winds become more westerly at 50-70 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy north, light rain at times near coast, sunny intervals further south, moderate westerly winds becoming southwest about 50-80 km/hr, considerably milder with highs 8-10 C late afternoon or evening.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, some outbreaks of light rain in northwest, otherwise largely dry, mild. Morning lows 3-5 C and afternoon highs 8-10 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, mild, some light rain near north coast, morning lows 2-4 C (4-7 C near Atlantic) and afternoon highs 11-13 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Very mild and largely dry although some northern counties could see occasional drizzle or light rain, moderate southwest winds but becoming rather windy at times in Connacht and Ulster, highs generally in the 12-14 C range.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Slightly cooler as high pressure builds up over Britain leading to southeast to east winds and highs near 9 C early next week, then becoming unsettled later in the week with light rain at times, highs near 11 C.


Britain will also see widespread snow showers today but more of a mix in the London area and near the south coast. The milder spell will develop there also towards mid-day Wednesday after a risk of some morning sleet or wet snow.

Over the U.S. and parts of eastern Canada, a mixed bag of precipitation will develop late today and Wednesday with milder air near the Atlantic coasts, temperatures briefly reaching 8-10 C in New York City and Boston leading to some melting of heavy snow packs, but icing or further snow inland could actually add to the pack there. Much colder by late today or tonight in parts of the central U.S. as very cold air from central Canada moves in, meanwhile near normal and dry in the far west. My local weather on Monday was sunny and the high after some slight morning frost was about 8 C.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 4 March, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Gradually turning milder although some cloud moving in from the west may slow the warming trend. Occasional light rain or drizzle (high elevation sleet) in parts of the north as a warm front moves through. Highs reaching 8-10 C in most locations by late afternoon, 4-7 C in parts of Ulster. Moderate southwest winds developing 40-60 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy except overcast in parts of north, lows 1-3 C.

THURSDAY ... Increasing cloud, mild, some light rain later in day in parts of west and north, highs near 11 C in moderate southwest winds.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, mild, some light rain or drizzle in parts of north, morning lows 3-5 C and afternoon highs 9-11 C.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy, some light rain or drizzle fairly persistent in west and north, spreading to other regions by evening. Highs near 11 C.

SUNDAY ... Gradual clearing, highs near 9 C.

MONDAY ... Increasing cloud, periods of rain may become heavy late in the day, highs near 11 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Near normal temperatures most of next week, but it could turn a bit colder again around mid-month. Rather unsettled at times, but overall rainfall may be somewhat below normal after the Monday system moves through.

Pretty much the same picture for Britain although today they will hold on to the early sunshine well into the afternoon for most.

Eastern North America has warmed above freezing but the system is developing a secondary that may bring 10-20 cm snowfalls tomorrow to parts of the east-central coastal region. Heaviest snow appears to be headed for Philadelphia to Washington D.C., further north it will turn much colder and clear slowly, while further south it will remain mild for an extra day with rain turning to sleet. The far west remains rather tranquil and temperatures are not far from average now. On Tuesday my local weather was sunny with a high of about 9 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 5 March, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Increasing cloud, mild, some light rain later in day in parts of west and north, highs near 11 C in moderate southwest winds 50-70 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, mild, some light rain in parts of north and west, lows about 6 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, mild, some light rain or drizzle in parts of north, morning lows 3-5 C and afternoon highs 9-11 C.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy, some light rain or drizzle fairly persistent in west and north, spreading to other regions by evening. Morning lows 5-7 C and highs 11-13 C. Heaviest rain likely to be evening and overnight hours, 5-10 mm for most.

SUNDAY ... Rain ending around sunrise east, clearing early morning west, then sunny intervals, not quite as mild with morning temperatures and daytime highs similar about 8 to 10 C.

MONDAY ... A clear and possibly frosty start to the day, lows -2 to +3 C, then sunny morning east, with increasing cloud west, then periods of rain that may become heavy late in the day, highs near 11 C. Rainfall potential about 15 mm.

TUESDAY ... Gradual clearing, highs near 10 C.

MID-WEEK could see rather windy conditions developing with squally showers and temperatures dropping sharply after highs near 12 C Wednesday, and there could even be a brief return to wintry conditions.

Britain -- similar outlook in general.

North America -- heavy snow today in parts of the eastern seaboard states most likely around Baltimore and Philadelphia, not quite as heavy for New York City or Boston but in Boston they need about 10 cms to break the all-time winter record set in winter of 1995-96. If the record doesn't fall today it probably will later this month (about 270 cms in total for the winter).

Meanwhile there is no sign of winter on the west coast, Wednesday was sunny and mild with a high near 11 C at my location (which is near Vancouver, British Columbia, in case you've been reading this for years and wondering).

By the way, you may remember I was mentioning that the models had different solutions for the end of this week a few days back -- so which one did better? Actually I feel that the blend was best and in fact this may be one of those rare cases where one of the less favoured models did the best job -- it has not turned out as unsettled as the GFS was showing, but at the same time the European model was a bit too optimistic on dry conditions.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 6 March, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Variable cloud, mild, some light rain or drizzle in parts of north, afternoon highs 9-11 C. Moderate southwest winds 50-70 km/hr.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy, some light rain or drizzle fairly persistent in west and north, spreading to other regions by evening. Morning lows 5-7 C and highs 11-13 C. Heaviest rain likely to be evening and overnight hours, 5-10 mm for most. Becoming rather windy especially across Connacht and Ulster with some gusts to 110 km/hr there, otherwise moderate southwest winds 50-80 km/hr.

SUNDAY ... Rain ending around sunrise east, clearing early morning west, then sunny intervals, not quite as mild with morning temperatures and daytime highs similar about 8 to 10 C. Winds much lighter, a fairly pleasant day if a bit on the cool side.

MONDAY ... A clear and possibly frosty start to the day, lows -2 to +3 C, then sunny morning east, with increasing cloud west, then periods of rain that may become heavy late morning west, afternoon east, squally showers or possible thunderstorms, then becoming quite windy (SW 60-110 km/hr), highs 10-12 but falling off sharply in west by evening. Rainfall potential about 15 mm.

TUESDAY ... Gradual clearing, scattered light frost with lows near -1 C then highs near 10 C.

MID-WEEK guidance has begun to diverge into two themes, one is unsettled with more rain by late Wednesday into Thursday, but another theme suggests a colder turn with moderate frosts. I expect this uncertainty to be resolved over the weekend but at this point I think the models need time to assess what's going on upstream where the mega-cold pattern over North America seems to be breaking down in gradual stages later next week.

With that in mind, yesterday's 15-30 cm snowfalls in parts of the eastern U.S. will remain in place today under cold dry but cloudy conditions (sunshine filtering through higher cloud at times) but after that, a slow thaw seems to be in the medium range forecasts as a flatter west to east flow develops, spreading the Pacific warmth more equally across the continent. This will lead to a fairly rapid snowmelt next week in New England, the Midwest and Great Lakes regions. My local weather on Thursday was partly cloudy with some sun getting through a veil of higher cloud, high about 12 C. Plenty of spring blooming already underway here 2-3 weeks ahead of normal schedule.