Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Snowmaker

highdef wrote: »

Many thanks M.T. - However I just want to point out that your formula for converting from mph to kmph is rather inaccurate...

The speeds are originally in Knots (kts). The formula suggested is to convert kts to kph.

highdef

In that case, I withdraw all my comments!!!! I'll go and get my coat

M.T. Cranium

No worries, in any case my formula is not exactly right for knots to km/hr, what would be exactly right would be double then subtract 7.5% or three quarters of that ten per cent. So 80 knots would convert to 160-12 rather than 160-16 and the answer is 148. In reverse, km/hr times 0.54 gives you knots, so 100 km/hr is 54 knots. 150 km/hr would be 81 knots (54+27).

The other conversion is very familiar to me as a driver in a country with metric speed limits and mph speedometers in vehicles and speed limits on US highways. We all have them pretty much memorized or it's pay up big time, on the spot, when travelling south of ze border. We converted in 1977 and most of us old timers still tend to speak in Imperial to some extent although it has been a while since I heard anyone quote a temperature in fahrenheit on this side of the border (or Celsius on the other side).

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 14 January, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for continued heavy snow in some parts of the north for a few more hours, followed by a thaw as already underway in some southern counties. ... ALERT for very strong winds from mid-day onwards lasting well into Thursday especially in northern counties. Peak gusts 130 km/hr near south coast, 150 km/hr near west coast and exposed locations inland, otherwise 110 km/hr but with potential for some streaks of 120-130 km/hr to extend through the central lowlands towards Leinster where there could be some funnelling effects near Dublin, so that some parts of the capital region might have much stronger gusts than other parts by Thursday morning.

TODAY ... Snow will end later this morning in parts of the north after a further 3-5 cms, and will change to rain in most of the south around sunrise. During the morning and mid-day hours, heavy rain with some embedded thunderstorms will spread rapidly east and produce 15-25 mm amounts, with some snow melt there could be temporary road flooding. It may also become quite foggy especially over melting snow. Then, very strong winds will arrive, SSW 70-110 km/hr but reaching gusts near 130 km/hr in some coastal areas. Highs 8-10 C.

TONIGHT into THURSDAY MORNING will be very stormy, especially in Connacht, west Ulster and parts of west Munster. Winds will veer to westerly and after a brief temporary lull, they will increase to 90-130 km/hr for most counties and 110-150 km/hr in more exposed coastal regions. Some moderate damage is possible, and despite the neap tides (we are halfway from full moon to new moon) some shoreline encroachment particularly around Galway Bay and Donegal Bay. Temperatures steady 2-4 C west, 4-6 C east. Squally showers may start to mix with snow especially over higher inland parts of west Munster which will be colder than other regions by late overnight hours.

THURSDAY ... Very strong winds slowly abating to NW 50-80 km/hr but remaining intense over the north past mid-day (WNW 100-140 km/hr there) with passing squalls of rain, hail, sleet or snow, and some thunder. Temperatures steady around 4-5 C except for a few colder areas in higher parts of west Munster (1-3 C). About 5 mm additional moisture expected.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY will be cold or very cold with passing wintry showers, some accumulations of snow mainly on higher terrain, and temperatures between -2 C at night and +4 C daytimes. Moderate northwest winds will sometimes become stronger and gust to 100 km/hr but more frequently they will be in the 40-70 km/hr range.

MONDAY could see a significant snowfall (that might start Sunday afternoon or evening) with any rain confined to most temperate parts of southwest. This is rather uncertain at present but there is potential for 5-10 cm snowfalls. Temperatures might be fairly close to zero C with that although 4-7 C in parts of the southwest.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for very cold weather at times, but confidence is not yet all that high, and there could be one or two milder days in the mix.

To recap, expect a high impact storm in many regions with the usual variations from coastal to inland locations. See a previous update for estimates of peak wind gusts at specific locations. I would hazard the guess that 50 to 100k residents will be suffering some power interruptions and that trees may fall in some areas blocking a few roads. Travel will become quite hazardous once the main core of the storm sets in. However, some areas may see much less dramatic impacts, if I had to speculate where, some inland southeast locations. Unlike last February's storm, the inland reach of strongest winds with this one might be more like Galway to Athlone towards Dublin rather than Shannon towards Kilkenny but a minor repeat of that can't be ruled out.

UPDATES will be issued when and as deemed necessary, bearing in mind that MTC could at some point be taking a power nap and you might want to keep the storm thread on constant refresh once things get going in full force.

Across Britain, this storm will give roughly similar results from south to north, with the strongest gusts likely to hit parts of southwest Scotland. As colder air spreads in over the weekend and next week, eastern, central and inland southern England could see some very heavy snowfalls 10-20 cms or more. The cold air is likely to push a long way south and end the prolonged mild spell in France, Spain and Italy.

Nothing much to report in North America for a change (a large cold arctic high over the Great Lakes) and my local weather on Tuesday featured morning fog then hazy sunshine and about 8 C.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Wed 14 Jan 2015 _ 10:55 pm
____________________________________

The low continues to deepen as it moves past Donegal Bay, and will eventually reach 940-945 mbs. But the strongest winds are in a band between 955 and 975 mbs and almost all of that will be over Ireland tonight and Thursday morning. Direction of the strongest winds will veer gradually from southwest to west during the next 12 to 18 hours. As they move around to westerly, there may be a peak for Galway Bay due to topographic channelling.

No significant changes in forecast, the strongest winds of the storm are about to reach the west coast and these should peak around 0300 to 0900 hours with sustained winds of 90-100 km/hr gusting to 150 km/hr in exposed locations (possibly 160). This will gradually reduce to 80-130 km/hr through the central counties and inland Ulster towards the east coast. All of these regions will see squally showers of rain and hail, snow only falling late in the windy period on highest elevations in Connacht and west Ulster.

Meanwhile the south coast will see a second round of strong wind gusts during the overnight hours, probably not quite reaching the same intensity as earlier today, but close to that, 80-120 km/hr.

Parts of west Munster will become cold enough for sleet or snow by morning, as cold air makes its most direct approach from the southwest. Temperatures further north will stay above 4 C until late Thursday, but in higher parts of west Munster they will fall to 1-2 C and if snow falls then there may not be much recovery during the daytime hours. Dublin and most of Leinster will see temperatures near 6 or 7 C most of the day with passing squally showers.

Check the storm discussion thread for any further updates before the morning forecast at 0630h.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 15 January, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Continuing very windy (SW to W) except in sheltered parts of the southeast, with some gusts to 140 km/hr in the most exposed locations, more generally about 110-120 km/hr. There appears to be some banding to the wind field so that actual speeds are somewhat variable across various regions. Rather intense showers may bring stronger gusts at times, hail will be frequent and some snow will develop over higher parts of west Munster. Temperatures steady around 4-7 C with a tendency to fall slowly this afternoon. Winds veering to NW and moderating to 50-80 km/hr by late afternoon. A few parts of the southeast will only see winds in the 50-80 km/hr range all day and will also have more frequent sunny intervals.

TONIGHT ... Much less windy with clear intervals, some frost developing, and a few remnant showers becoming more wintry in all regions. Lows -3 to +2 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY will be a bright, cold period with occasional passing wintry showers, some risk of accumulations of 1-3 cm snow on hills in northern counties and in higher inland parts of west Munster. Highs each day around 3 to 6 C and overnight lows -4 to +1 C.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY looks more unsettled and guidance is somewhat unclear on temperature trend but there is certainly a risk of heavier accumulations of snow in the period, possibly mixing in southwest with rain, but also some chance of mixed forms of precipitation in other regions. Temperatures will probably not stray too far from the range of -1 to +3 C.

Briefly, over in Britain the strongest winds are hitting south-central Scotland and some parts of England, coastal Wales, but the storm may not be quite as severe as earlier anticipated with peak gusts away from Scottish mountains around 110 to 130 km/hr. Temperatures are generally in the 6-9 C range but close to 10 C in southern England for the rest of the day. Expect some minor travel delays but not too prolonged. The colder spell especially past Sunday is more liikely to be cold enough for snow in most parts of Britain except possibly south Wales and southwest England.

My local weather was foggy at times but with bright sunshine for several hours around mid-day, and a high of about 8 C after a slight frost.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 16 January, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cold with a mixture of sunny intervals and passing showers which may mix rain with hail, sleet or even snow, resulting in some accumulations mainly on hills. Lower down, snow may lie briefly then melt, but roads could become rather icy in shaded locations. Moderate northwest winds occasionally gusting to 60 km/hr will add some chill to daytime highs of only 3-7 C. There will be a slight chance of thunder with some of these showers by afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, less frequent mixed wintry showers, lows -4 to +2 and widespread icy road conditions likely.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, cold, passing showers once again rather mixed or wintry in most locations, and more frequent in Connacht, west Ulster and parts of west Munster, with highs near 3-7 C.

SUNDAY ... Scattered snow or sleet showers, cold. Morning lows near -5 C in some rural areas, -2 C in cities and near coasts. Highs 4-7 C.

MONDAY ... Mixed rain and wet snow at times, some accumulations of snow possible in Ulster and north Leinster, inland higher parts of Connacht. Rain more likely in Munster. Highs 2-5 C north and east, 5-8 C south and west.

OUTLOOK ... A rather weak frontal boundary will persist through Ireland for much of the week. Some colder air may eventually push in from the northeast and turn mixed showers to all snow for a time, more likely Wednesday to Friday. Highs will be only 2-6 C on average and frosts will continue for most places other than the most temperate locales in west Munster each night.

This forecast and outlook will be fairly similar for Britain although next week is likely to be generally a bit colder with snowfall breaking out more readily from Monday onwards.

In North America, the general theme is rather cold and inactive weather patterns although some rain is moving into the Pacific coastal regions. My local weather on Thursday was cloudy with occasional light rain and a high of 8 C.

Astronomy note: If you read this before sunrise and have any clear skies off to your southeast, you may be able to see the waning crescent moon close to Saturn. They are closest around 1200h after daylight intervenes.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 17 January, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Partly cloudy with passing showers of mixed wintry precipitation including some snow at times, accumulations more likely on higher terrain above 150m. Quite cold with highs 3-7 C. Moderate westerly winds at times backing to southwest this afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Wintry showers continuing although likely more confined to north and west, clear intervals developing with a sharp frost as lows fall to -5 to -2 C in most areas.

SUNDAY ... Some sunshine but very cold, more wintry showers will develop with scattered accumulations of 1 or 2 cm snow likely coming and going during the day. Widespread icy roads as it will take some time to warm up above freezing, eventually reaching highs of 3 to 7 C.

MONDAY ... Possible sleet or snow more likely in Ulster and Leinster, inland higher parts of Connacht, with light rain or fog developing in south and west towards afternoon and evening then this will turn to wet snow. Some accumulations by the overnight hours into early Tuesday in central and northeast counties, on hills elsewhere, to 5-10 cm. Morning lows near -5 C then afternoon highs only 1-4 C in north and east, 4-8 C in south and west.

TUESDAY ... Snow showers ending, some clearing and very cold with lows of about -5 C and highs near 2 C.

OUTLOOK ... At this point it appears likely to remain cold on Wednesday and (in the north and east at least) Thursday, then may become a bit milder by Friday. Any showers will likely be sleety or wintry at first, then more of rain by end of the week. Also milder the following weekend for a time before turning colder again. Temperatures may recover at some point to about 10 C.

My local weather on Friday featured morning showers then clearing, some cloud by afternoon again, and rather mild at 10 C. Rain is expected here over the weekend.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 18 January, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

ADVANCE ALERT -- Snow is 70% likely late tomorrow into early Tuesday across most counties apart from coastal south and west, amounts may be as high as 5-10 cm in central and south Ulster, inland north Leinster, higher parts of Connacht.

TODAY ... Cold with frequent sunny intervals, a few passing showers of snow or sleet, with icy conditions following these showers for a time. Moderate northwest to north winds 40-60 km/hr. Highs 2-6 C highest in coastal south.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, isolated wintry showers, widespread frost and some freezing fog. Lows -6 to -2 C.

MONDAY ... Some sunny intervals in north and east although freezing fog may be slow to dissipate in some parts, cloudy from early morning in south and west. Cold, with a mixture of drizzle and wet snow moving onto Atlantic coasts around mid-afternoon. Staying dry to early evening further east. Highs about 1 to 3 C for most, 5 to 7 C in a few parts of southwest. Light southeast winds.

MONDAY NIGHT into TUESDAY MORNING will bring a sleety mix of rain and wet snow to lower elevations of the coastal south and west, and quite possibly some accumulating snow further inland, although at elevations lower than 150metres I think it may mix slightly. Accumulations of 5-10 cms are possible and most likely in central and northern counties, and on higher ground elsewhere. Lows overnight steady near -1 or 0 C for most, 2-4 C in milder coastal areas.

TUESDAY will see this snow or sleet moving away to be followed by partly cloudy skies and isolated wintry showers, highs 3-5 C.

WEDNESDAY could provide a fairly similar second mixed rain and snow event with further accumulations in east and north, central counties. Lows near -3 and highs near +3 C.

THURSDAY will likely be a mostly dry day but some guidance gives a continued risk of snow in eastern counties from onshore streamers. Lows about -4 C and highs would be around 4 C.

FRIDAY and the following weekend appear somewhat milder on most guidance but I should note that there remains some chance of colder air staying in place and holding this milder Atlantic flow back to the west. If it does turn milder it would likely reach 8-10 C and some rain would follow. If it stays cold, highs will be 1-4 C and mixed wintry showers would be likely.

My local weather on Saturday was cloudy with drizzle at times, turning to a steady rain this evening.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 19 January, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for 5-10 cm snowfalls in some parts of northern and central counties late afternoon or evening into Tuesday morning. Further south, expect a wintry mix with sleet possibly changing to rain but then back to sleet or snow. Widespread freezing fog, icy roads also possible this morning and near the end of the snowfall event.

TODAY ... Persistent frost with some freezing fog developing this morning, a little sunshine in a few parts of the east fading behind cloud already moving into the west. When a frontal band brings rain onto the west coast, this will tend to fall as sleet just a little distance inland and as snow on hills at first, but further inland it could be all snow at all elevations of Ulster, east Connacht and north Leinster, with 5-10 cm possible overnight. The rain will mix with sleet or wet snow in some parts of the south this afternoon, with snow on hills. Today's highs will reach only 1-3 C for most and could stay below freezing where snow starts in the afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Snow continuing on higher ground, mixing with sleet or rain at times at lower elevations, and probably falling as just a cold rain near south coast although mixing with snow a short distance inland. Lows -2 to +1 C. A few locations in central Ulster as well as various higher elevations around the country could see totals of 10-15 cm snow, but otherwise 5-10 cm likely. Icy roads where untreated and slippery in areas with rain. Dense fog may develop too.

TUESDAY ... Snow or sleet ending, some clearing and continued cold, highs about 2-4 C. Another period of snow or sleet is likely towards evening lasting through the night, once again, some accumulations in northern and central counties, 3-5 cm.

WEDNESDAY ... Sleet or a cold rain in some areas, snow in north and east, morning lows -4 to -2 C, highs only 1-3 C for most although 3-6 C in west Munster.

THURSDAY ... Some wintry showers then clearing, cold. Lows -5 to -2 C and highs 3-6 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy and milder with periods of rain developing, highs 8-10 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy and turning colder, mixed wintry showers, highs 3-6 C.

SUNDAY-MONDAY appear likely to be settled with milder temperatures returning although there could be sharp frosts in some areas. Eventually it appears more likely than not that the pattern will return to a mild southwesterly flow for a few days. This may once again revert to cold weather early in February.

Pretty much the same story for southern Britain, although heavier snows likely at times mid-week further north. Some areas could see 10-20 cm snowfalls.

In North America, weather patterns continue rather weak, turning colder for most eastern states, but rather mild in central and western regions. My local weather on Sunday was very mild with variable amounts of cloud and some showers, highs reached 12 C.

Watch for updates concerning the approaching snowfall. As many readers are in Dublin, I would mention that snow in the city may be confined to higher districts (3-5 cm) but at least some snow could fall for a time in almost all locations. For Cork, it's a somewhat similar story, most likely the precip will start as sleet, turn to a cold rain and back to sleet, but some higher locations could see measurable snow.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Monday, 19 January, 2015 _ 6:30 pm
_________________________________________

The rather slow-moving and weak frontal band will gradually approach east coast counties by late evening. Precipitation will take the form of snow in some areas to start, then change to freezing rain or freezing drizzle towards morning. There could be some very nasty road conditions by the morning commute in Leinster as a result of these changes, with temperatures slow to increase except right along the Irish Sea coastline where sleet will change to rain.

So a rather complex outlook for the next 12-18 hours with 5-10 cm snowfalls possible in some central counties and on higher ground south of Dublin, 2-5 cm likely for a while in counties surrounding that zone on all sides, that changing to freezing rain or freezing drizzle and giving very icy road conditions at times late tonight and tomorrow morning, and, 3-5 mm rain only in south coast counties and some parts of the west midlands (areas such as Limerick and western Tipperary, south Clare) which could involve some icy patches. Higher parts of West Munster could also see a mix of snow, sleet and ice.

Would allow considerable extra time for any driving you need to do after this weather system moves in.

Low pressure forming within the trough is having the effect of trapping cold air at the surface while allowing slightly milder air to seep in above, which is why I believe that snow will gradually change to freezing rain. Best chance for accumulating snow would be in areas such as Roundwood and Tinahely, as well as some central counties probably centered on Longford, Cavan and Westmeath, although this precip will likely not extend very far east of central Louth to western Antrim before being pulled south, so that not all areas of Ulster will see much snow at all.

Dense fog may develop with some of this mixed precip, adding to the road hazards. Stay safe and check the cold weather discussion thread (level one alert) for a lot more details.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 20 January, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

Astronomy note: New moon today at 1314h, if skies were clear and the Sun went dark, you would see the Moon located about five degrees above the Sun. Tides should be fairly robust because lunar perigee is tomorrow, but with light winds no issues expected with coastal flooding.


TODAY ... A cold rain has replaced sleet or snow in many areas but there could still be some snow and ice on higher ground and in a few parts of the north to mid-day. Rain will continue across parts of the southeast to early afternoon while west and north see partial clearing. It will then stay dry to late afternoon, with more sleet or rain likely by early evening in the west and north. Highs today 5-7 C. Watch for icy roads in a few parts of central to north Leinster and central Ulster, higher parts of west Munster.

TONIGHT ... Sleet may turn to snow on hills for part or all of the night, and may change back and forth from wet snow to rain in some other areas. Any clearing will allow temperatures to fall well below freezing (-4 C) but as long as mixed precipitation continues temperatures would likely stay near -1 to +1 degrees. Moderate northeast winds and sleety showers from Irish Sea may develop as low pressure deepens over Wales.

WEDNESDAY ... A few remnant sleety showers, then partly cloudy, more isolated wintry showers, cold. Highs 4-6 C.

THURSDAY ... After a cold and frosty start, the day should turn a bit milder, with rain late in the day in western counties, moderate southwest winds developing. Lows -5 to -2 C and highs 7-9 C (except 3-6 C east Ulster).

FRIDAY ... Breezy or windy and mild with periods of rain, turning colder late in the day, as southwest winds 50-80 km/hr veer more to west and northwest. Lows 2-4 C and highs 8-10 C.

SATURDAY ... Breezy and colder with passing showers, some wintry on hills in north. Lows 1-3 C and highs 4-6 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will be milder again, and with occasional light rain, highs near 10 C. From there on, it looks like a milder week in general but with the occasional slightly colder interval that might lead to light frosts. Any return to wintry cold may require a few more days.

Britain will have outbreaks of sleet and snow through the day and overnight into Wednesday, some ice fog likely. Milder air reaching parts of Ireland early today will also reach parts of south Wales and Cornwall-Devon but other regions will stay in rather cold air with highs 1-3 C.

North America is largely dominated by rather mild air although it's seasonably cold in north central and northeast Canada. A little light freezing rain is moving through some parts of the upper Midwest. Later this week some snow is likely inland from the east coast cities but more of a sleety mix there. My local weather on Monday was spring-like, with sunshine and highs near 13 C.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 21 January, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Some fog and local freezing fog this morning, but becoming partly to mostly sunny in some eastern counties. Variable cloud further west with passing sleety showers that may turn to snow on hills. Moderate winds at times, cold with highs only 4-7 C.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals will promote a sharp frost. Lows -5 to +1 C. Fog and ice will develop across many inland counties.

THURSDAY ... After a cold and frosty start, the day should turn a bit milder, with rain late in the day in western counties, moderate southwest winds developing. Lows -5 to -2 C and highs 7-9 C (except 3-6 C east Ulster).

FRIDAY ... Breezy or windy and mild with periods of rain, turning colder late in the day, as southwest winds 50-80 km/hr veer more to west and northwest. Lows 2-4 C and highs 8-10 C.

SATURDAY ... Breezy and colder with passing showers, some wintry on hills in north. Lows 1-3 C and highs 4-6 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will be milder again, and with occasional light rain, highs near 10 C. From there on, it looks like a milder week in general but with the occasional slightly colder interval that might lead to light frosts. Any return to wintry cold may require a few more days.

TUESDAY then looks quite cold again in west to northwest winds, highs only 4 to 6 C and mixed wintry showers.

From then to the first week of February, some of the latest model runs are suggesting a few very cold and very windy outbreaks despite a continuing west to northwest wind flow. This looks a bit "overcooked" but even if so, the trend is continuing rather cold and unsettled. If it's not overdone and turns out to be accurate guidance, then you'll be seeing some rather dramatic wintry scenes around the first week of February and possibly as early as the last two days of this month.

Meanwhile, Britain today will be dealing with a messy mix of snow in central counties, sleet further south and a cold rain on the south coast. This will gradually fizzle out by tomorrow but a few higher parts of the Midlands and Yorkshire could see 5-10 cm snowfalls.

In North America, not a lot going on today or tomorrow, widespread near normal temperatures and weak systems, but a more active phase begins on the weekend. A snowstorm could hit the northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions around then, mixing with sleet or rain along the shorelines. Very mild air is pushing into the west, and temperatures that are already above normal will move up towards record highs of 14-17 C in BC and WA state, 19 to 21 C in Oregon and well up into the 20s in California. My local weather on Tuesday was partly sunny and the high was about 9 C. We're expecting to add a degree or two each day to this with rain at times through Sunday.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 22 January, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Widespread fog and frost this morning, icy roads in many areas, drive with caution ... the day should turn a bit milder, with intermittent light rain or freezing drizzle in western counties, this probably dying out as it moves further east by mid-day, allowing for some sunny intervals and somewhat milder conditions to develop. Moderate westerly backing to southwest winds developing after a rather calm morning. Highs 7-9 C (except 3-6 C east Ulster).

TONIGHT ... Frost and fog likely in many parts of inland east and south, lows -3 to +1 C but cloudy with occasional light rain or drizzle west and milder there with temperatures rising after midnight in the range of 3-6 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy or windy and mild with periods of rain, turning colder late in the day, as southwest winds 50-80 km/hr veer more to west and northwest. Highs 8-10 C. Temperatures falling rapidly after sunset with some icy road conditions likely by evening.

SATURDAY ... Breezy and colder with passing showers, some wintry on hills in north. Lows -2 to +2 C and highs 4-6 C.

SUNDAY will be milder again, and with occasional light rain, highs near 10 C.

MONDAY will start rather mild and turn somewhat colder again, with showers and a high near 8 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... More rapid changes from day to day, in a west to northwest flow. Models are still showing much colder temperatures returning around the end of January with potential for some severe wintry conditions in early February but there is a lot of spread from one model to another on details.

Briefly, the general trends for Britain will be similar to the above, and in North America there is a gradual trend towards very mild weather on the west coast but colder east of the Rockies and by early February, very cold in central and eastern regions with potential for -30 C or lower temperatures in parts of eastern Canada and northern New England. My local weather on Wednesday was overcast and the high about 7 C. Rain is slowly spreading inland tonight and it started here in the past half hour.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 23 January, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Heavy showers this morning in Leinster, clearing elsewhere with just a few isolated showers redeveloping later, in a blustery southwest wind rising to 60-90 km/hr, veering to westerly late afternoon as much colder air arrives in western counties. Highs 10-12 C.

TONIGHT ... Showers becomiing wintry in some parts of the north, partly cloudy for most further south as much colder air rushes in on westerly winds of 50-80 km/hr. Temperatures only 1-3 C by late evening and falling to -1 or so away from somewhat milder west coast. Icy stretches will develop on roads especially in parts of north where sleet or snow develops.

SATURDAY ... Continuing wintry showers in the north, mostly sunny further south in moderate westerly winds. Highs 6-8 C south to 2-5 C north. Clear and frosty again shortly after sunset. Milder later in the night.

SUNDAY ... Milder and rather windy at times, occasional light rain, misty. Highs reaching 10 C.

MONDAY ... Windy and a bit colder again, highs 5-8 C.

OUTLOOK ... Mild for a couple of days mid-week with highs near 10 C, then turning colder in stages, and becoming quite windy by the end of the month with northwesterly gales likely in Ulster and north Connacht. Wintry showers or snow could develop around the weekend of 31 Jan to 1 Feb. It may turn quite cold for a few days at that point.

The pattern will be similar for Britain although this morning it remains very cold in south central and southeast England with a severe frost (-8 C was reported at Benson near Oxford). It will be turning milder soon but with a period of icy roads likely to mid-day. Looking further ahead, the cold and windy spell at the end of the month could be quite severe for Scotland and northern England.

In North America, a rainstorm over the southeastern U.S. today will spread sleet up the east coast with a bit of snow over higher ground inland. This will develop into a strong windstorm event in eastern Canada by Sunday. Much colder air will rush in behind this storm and the next low around Monday on the east coast could be a fairly significant snowstorm. The far west on the other hand is turning very mild in a southwesterly flow with periods of rain and fog but rising temperatures that may peak near 15 C on the weekend as far north as Vancouver Island. My local weather on Thursday was overcast with drizzle and fog, highs near 10 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 24 January, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


The next five days or so will not be overly dramatic, but after that there could be quite a change towards more wintry conditions in a strong northerly outbreak.

TODAY ... Partly sunny across the south, more cloudy in the north and some parts of the west also, with occasional wintry showers on high ground, likely to be mostly rain near sea level. Moderate westerly winds 50-80 km/hr at times in exposed areas, and highs 5-8 C, mildest in the south.

TONIGHT ... Increasing cloud, rising temperatures 3-6 C so that if any frost develops in eastern counties this evening, it should quickly dissipate. Light rain could reach parts of the west before morning.

SUNDAY ... Breezy and mild with occasional light rain, turning heavier by evening. Highs 10-12 C.

MONDAY ... Windy and slightly colder with passing showers, lows 4-6 C and highs 7-9 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will be rather mild with strong westerly winds and periods of rain developing, highs 8-10 C.

THURSDAY will then turn a bit colder in west to northwest winds and showers becoming mixed and wintry in the north. Highs 6-8 C for most, 3-6 C north.

FRIDAY it will begin to turn wintry in higher parts of the north, and much colder in other areas, in strong northerly winds and highs 4-6 C.

NEXT WEEKEND and early next week, expect some strong northerly winds at times, passing mixed or wintry showers, snow on hills quite likely, and at lower elevations from time to time, as temperatures struggle to reach even 3 or 4 C. Some sharp frosts will develop and there may be icy road conditions at times as well as lying snow. The main feature of this spell will be strong northerly winds reaching 70-100 km/hr at times in exposed areas.

For Britain, most of these trends will be similar and when the very cold spell begins, it may be more severe in parts of Scotland. There is some chance that this spell may dig in and be a prolonged wintry period but other guidance suggests continued variable conditions with a mixture of cold and milder spells.

In North America, a rain or sleet event on the east coast overnight into Saturday morning will become more of a mixed rain and snow event in New England and then very strong winds will develop in eastern Canada by Sunday as the low explodes to reach 945 mbs near Labrador. This low will head north rather than east across the Atlantic. A second low diving southeast will bring a few inches of snow to the Midwest and mid-Atlantic states. After these two systems are done, much colder air will flood south and cover most of the continent, while very mild air holds on in the far west. My local weather on Friday was extremely wet and mild, the high (and current temperature) was about 11 C and there was about 75 mm of rain causing some local flooding. That rain has shifted north as we get into a subtropical southwest flow that may boost temperatures towards 15 C on the weekend.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 25 January, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


Confidence is growing that there may be some robust winter weather starting around mid-week and intensifying next weekend.

TODAY ... Breezy and mild with occasional light rain more frequent in west, some longer dry intervals in east to mid-day, then more extensive light rain developing and this turning heavier by evening for parts of Connacht and Ulster. Highs 10-12 C. Moderate southwest winds at times gusting to 70 km/hr.

TONIGHT and MONDAY ... Windy and slightly colder with passing showers, lows 4-6 C and highs 7-9 C. Some of the showers may be sleety on high ground in north. However, also some sunny intervals. Westerly winds gusting to about 80 km/hr in some areas.

TUESDAY and early WEDNESDAY will be rather mild with strong westerly winds and periods of rain developing, highs 8-10 C and near 5 C overnight into Wednesday morning.

Later WEDNESDAY it will turn colder with showers or periods of rain becoming sleety on high ground, eventually some snow accumulations by late in the day on western and northern hills. Temperatures falling during the day to about 7 C.

THURSDAY will then stay cold in west to northwest winds and showers becoming mixed and wintry at times in the north. Highs 6-8 C for most, 3-6 C north. Winds W-NW 50-80 km/hr.

FRIDAY it will begin to turn even more wintry in higher parts of the north, and much colder in other areas, in strong northerly winds gusting to 90 km/hr, morning lows -2 to +2 C, and highs only 4-6 C.

NEXT WEEKEND and early next week, expect some strong northerly winds at times, passing mixed or wintry showers, snow on hills quite likely, and at lower elevations from time to time, as temperatures struggle to reach even 3 or 4 C. Some sharp frosts will develop and there may be icy road conditions at times as well as lying snow. The main feature of this spell will be strong northerly winds reaching 70-100 km/hr at times in exposed areas. When these winds subside early next week, snow may develop from a chain of weak lows moving south in a broad northerly flow. Details will be hard to assess until much closer to the time but it would not surprise me if some 2-5 cm amounts come into play in the outlook by later this week.

For Britain, most of these trends will be similar and when the very cold spell begins, it may be more severe in parts of Scotland. There is some chance that this spell may dig in and be a prolonged wintry period dominating February, but other guidance suggests continued variable conditions with a mixture of cold and milder spells.

Meanwhile, the northeast United States is bracing for the impact of a major snowstorm expected to hit Tuesday (Monday in some parts of the mid-Atlantic states). This will bring 5-10 cm amounts near Washington DC, increasing to about 10-20 cm Baltimore and 20-30 cm Philadelphia, then 40-70 cm in New York City, Long Island and much of New England. Meanwhile this disturbance is slowly gathering energy over the Midwest where it is dropping light sleet and 2-4 cm snowfalls today. A rather cold high is sliding southeast ahead of it to set up the dynamics for the eventual coastal storm. So it should be a dry if cloudy day on the east coast today. The west is much warmer, in fact records may fall in many parts of western Canada and the Pacific Northwest states on Sunday and Monday. My local weather on Saturday featured continued rain that ended in the afternoon, and mild highs near 12 C. Expecting perhaps a bit of sun at times next two days, and highs 13-15 C. This will get our rather subtropical vegetation going a bit ahead of schedule.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 26 January, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Windy and slightly colder with passing showers, highs 7-9 C. Some of the showers may be sleety on high ground in north. However, also some sunny intervals. Westerly winds gusting to about 80 km/hr in some areas.

TONIGHT ... Generally clear across the south, lows 2-4 C. Cloudy further north with light rain at times, lows 4-7 C. Winds light to moderate westerly near some exposed coasts but calm inland.

TUESDAY and early WEDNESDAY will be rather mild with strong westerly winds 60-90 km/hr, and periods of rain developing, highs 8-10 C and near 5 C overnight into Wednesday morning except falling to 1-3 C by morning in Connacht as showers become sleety or mix with snow on hills.

WEDNESDAY it will turn colder with showers or periods of rain becoming sleety on high ground, eventually some snow accumulations by late in the day on western and northern hills. Blustery with west to northwest winds 60-90 km/hr and temperatures falling during the day to about 4 C, possibly lower in parts of north.

THURSDAY will then stay rather cold in west to northwest winds and showers becoming mixed and wintry at times in the north. Lows -1 to +2 C and highs 6-8 C for most, 3-6 C north. Winds W-NW 50-80 km/hr.

FRIDAY it will begin to turn even more wintry in higher parts of the north, and much colder in other areas, in strong northerly winds gusting to 90 km/hr, morning lows -2 to +2 C, and highs only 4-6 C.

NEXT WEEKEND and early next week, expect some strong northerly winds at times, passing mixed or wintry showers, snow on hills quite likely, and at lower elevations from time to time, as temperatures struggle to reach even 3 or 4 C. Some sharp frosts will develop and there may be icy road conditions at times as well as lying snow. The main feature of this spell will be strong northerly winds reaching 70-100 km/hr at times in exposed areas. When these winds subside early next week, snow may develop from a chain of weak lows moving south in a broad northerly flow. Details will be hard to assess until much closer to the time but it would not surprise me if some 2-5 cm amounts come into play in the outlook by later this week. At the moment there are indications of a brief warmup late Sunday or early Monday to be followed by almost gale force northwest winds and mixed wintry showers as a low dives southeast across Ulster towards southern Britain.

For Britain, most of these trends will be similar and when the very cold spell begins, it may be more severe in parts of Scotland. There is some chance that this spell may dig in and be a prolonged wintry period dominating February, but other guidance suggests continued variable conditions with a mixture of cold and milder spells.

Meanwhile, the northeast United States is bracing for the impact of a major snowstorm expected to hit Tuesday (Monday in some parts of the mid-Atlantic states). This will bring 3-6 cm amounts near Washington DC, increasing to about 5-10 cm Baltimore and 10-20 cm Philadelphia, then 40-80 (!) cm in New York City, Long Island and much of New England. Airports in the northeast U.S. are likely to be closed down by this storm on Tuesday and a good part of Wednesday during clean-up.

The west is much warmer, in fact records are falling in many parts of western Canada and the Pacific Northwest states yesterday and today. My local weather on Sunday was dry and mild with a few glimpses of the sun and a record high of 14 C at YVR (may have been 15 at my place), also a daily record set down at Seattle WA (17 C there). The temperature at 1500m around here is near 20 C. This is the expected high in parts of southern Alberta as a strong chinook develops.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 27 January, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Becoming mostly cloudy, some light and intermittent rain in west but not always making much progress further east, 2-5 mm at most, and mild with highs 9-12 C. Winds moderate southwesterly 60-90 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Rain becoming heavier, windy and mild at first but turning quite cold towards morning. Temperatures steady 7-9 C then falling to near 1-3 C in west, 3-5 C east. About 10 mm rain and westerly winds gusting to 90 km/hr at times.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and very cold (considering the strong winds), westerly winds 70-110 km/hr in exposed areas, 50-90 km/hr more generally, and passing mixed or wintry showers, with some accumulations of snow on northern and western higher terrain, melting snow showers closer to sea level or sleet, ice pellets etc. Temperatures will be steady around 2 or 3 C and it may feel more like -5 C.

THURSDAY ... Not quite as cold although continuing below average with lows around 1 or 2 C, highs 5-7 C. Passing showers will only be wintry on higher ground by afternoon. Winds west to northwest 50-80 km/hr.

FRIDAY ... Windy and very cold with passing wintry showers, another risk of snow in northern areas. Lows -1 to +3 C and highs 4-6 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Most of the time it will be windy and cold, or even very cold, in northerly winds 50-80 km/hr. There may be an interval of snow or sleet both days, with accumulations more likely in Ulster and Connacht. This cold spell will continue into Monday with only brief intervals of less windy conditions, and at times there may be 1-3 cm snow cover in higher parts of the west and north. Highs both days will struggle to reach 4 C, overnight lows about -1 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Although rather uncertain, it appears that somewhat milder weather will gradually return and next week will average about 6-7 C daytime and slightly below freezing most nights. There will likely be at least one more wintry spell in February but for the time being we are not seeing strong indications of anything too severe.

The above will also apply generally speaking to most parts of Britain, but the weekend forecast there will be several degrees colder with significant snow potential in eastern regions and parts of north Wales.

The northeastern United States has been hit as expected by a very strong snowstorm, somewhat heavier in New England than New York City but snow continues at this hour and will perhaps amount to 25 cms in parts of NYC and 50 to 75 cm in parts of New England and then by tonight and Wednesday this will extend into eastern Canada (not Toronto or Montreal where it will be cold and dry). A much weaker snowfall event is pushing east across Virginia and Maryland today and may bring a further 3-5 cms on top of 5 cms that fell yesterday. More flurries are developing around Chicago and that may turn into a secondary coastal storm later this week. But the west is very mild, and will continue that way to next weekend. My local weather was unseasonably warm and sunny on Monday, the high was 16 C where I live and 18 C a few miles further inland, also near 20 C in southern Alberta in a chinook.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 28 January, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for very strong wind gusts this morning across central counties (Galway Bay towards Dublin) gusting to 120 km/hr and possibly higher in exposed locations ... further strong winds from the northwest to north are expected to develop Thursday and these may be more prolonged and cover larger areas of the northwest, northeast and east coast. ... ALERT for frequent heavy snow showers (3-7 cms) on higher portions of Connacht and Ulster this morning, and possibly appearing at lower elevations all over the country (1-3 cms) at times. ADVANCE ALERT for severe wintry conditions around the weekend and early next week -- details yet to be absolutely "nailed down" with some variance between models, some depictions suggest heavy snow eastern counties and severe frosts to -8 C, below freezing daytime.

TODAY ... Very windy and turning bitterly cold, rain showers turning sleety or wintry. Some gusts to 130 km/hr near Galway Bay otherwise 110 or perhaps 120 km/hr, from a westerly direction. Frequent heavy snow showers are likely to develop over higher parts of Connacht and Ulster, accumulating to 3-7 cms, possible road travel disruption (Connacht Airport also may be affected). These wintry conditions may spread lower down at times by afternoon (1-3 cms) as temperatures are more likely to fall than rise, staying in the range of 1-3 C most of the day. Watch for updates as we track developments.

TONIGHT ... Continued very windy and cold, wintry showers and further accumulations of snow on higher terrain very likely (2-5 cms). Lows near zero or -1 C, feeling like -7 C in winds gusting above 80 km/hr at times.

THURSDAY ... Very windy again with some severe gusts developing in Connacht by afternoon, spreading to Ulster and down the east coast late in the day, possibly becoming very severe in parts of Antrim, Down and coastal Leinster (certainly over the Irish Sea). Although slightly less cold, wintry showers likely to continue at times, but more rain in the mix near sea level. Winds 50-80 km/hr much of the day will increase to 90-130 km/hr by late afternoon and evening in the warned areas and 80-110 km/hr elsewhere. Highs about 5 or 6 C except staying cold over snow-covered higher parts of the northwest (1-2 C).

FRIDAY ... Very windy conditions will ease slightly but northerly gales and gusts to 110 km/hr will persist over exposed coasts and hills, gusts to 90 km/hr in less exposed areas. Very cold with mixed wintry showers, sleet or snow in the mix for most inland locations, rain or hail near coasts. Lows in the range -1 to +1 C and highs 4-6 C. Some longer sunny intervals may develop across the east. Sleet or a cold rain may follow for a time by evening (a wave moving south near the east coast -- this may turn to snow inland later).

SATURDAY will also be very cold and windy (NNW 60-100 km/hr, some higher gusts possible) with mixed wintry showers, some accumulations of snow in north, also a few sunny intervals, lows -2 to -4 C and highs 3-6 C.

SUNDAY will be somewhat less windy and there will be a mixture of sunshine and passing wintry showers, lows -4 to -6 C and highs 2-5 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY present "options" at this point, the GFS model which just distinguished itself with details on the U.S. blizzard, is showing severe cold and potential for 10-20 cm snowfalls in eastern counties, temperatures as low as -8 C only recovering to about -2 C. Other models are not quite this extreme but would give potential for local snowfalls 5-10 cms and temperatures in the -5 to +2 C range. Stay tuned as the models may not converge on the right solution for several days. If correct, the GFS scenario would be quite disruptive for Leinster and east Ulster.

OUTLOOK ... Most guidance then shows a more settled interval that would start out either quite cold or extremely cold depending on how much snow cover develops. By the end of the week it could be considerably milder but if this severe spell does develop we can't be all that confident that the pattern will just break that easily.

For Britain, most of these details will form part of their forecast although, if anything, some periods will be more extreme as to wind gusts (Scotland on Thursday night looks exceptionally windy) and snowfall (North Sea is colder and so will be some of the air masses moving south in that region).

Over North America, the extreme blizzard conditions that hit New England (Worcester MA recorded over 80 cm) and just sideswiped New York City (although eastern borough of Queens saw 25 cms and Long Island 50-75 cm) have largely tapered off to light snow followed by a frigid overnight period and sunshine on Wednesday, but heavy snow continues to move through parts of eastern Maine and Atlantic provinces of Canada. Back to the west, less severe conditions in central regions with a developing frontal wave bringing milder air towards the Midwest -- this one will redevelop on the east coast Thursday night to give a top-up 5-10 cm snowfall on the heavy snow pack.

My local weather is nowhere near as dramatic as any of the above, cloudy and about 10 C on Tuesday.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 29 January, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for widespread snow showers giving some scattered accumulations of 3 to 5 cms, mostly at elevations above 150m and in the north and west, but it will be possible for snow to accumulate briefly elsewhere around mid-day ... ALERT for strong wind gusts late afternoon, evening and overnight in west, central and parts of the east now expected to exclude east Ulster as the focus for the winds has shifted to Donegal Bay towards Dublin (but west Munster will also get hit with them). Gusts to 120 km/hr between 9 p.m. and 3 a.m. from west veering northwest, in exposed locations not blocked by hills.

TODAY ... Mixed wintry showers, windy and cold, but with more snow developing mid-day as colder air aloft moves south across the country. Some accumulations of 3-5 cms are possible. Temperatures will stay fairly steady and while highs may reach 5 C there will tend to be ups and downs due to the passage of heavy squally showers, if these contain snow then temperatures will fall. These changing conditions may lead to very poor driving conditions, especially in higher parts of the central, western and northern counties. Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr will gradually increase to 80-120 km/hr by late in the day as they veer more northwesterly. However, east Ulster may see considerably lower wind speeds at times, due to a slack gradient closer to low pressure in Scotland.

TONIGHT ... Very windy, with squally showers of rain or hail, but snow could continue to accumulate and blow around at elevations above 300m. There may be an interval of storm force wind gusts in some parts of Leinster and the Irish Sea from the northwest (80-120 km/hr) and gales of 70-110 km/hr elsewhere. Lows around 2-3 C.

FRIDAY ... Continued very cold and windy with mixed wintry showers, mainly rain or hail at low elevations, snow above 200m, winds northwest to north at about 70-100 km/hr, highs 4-6 C.

SATURDAY ... Severe frost likely in the morning, some snow showers likely near north and west coasts and on hills, then variable cloud, windy, mixed wintry showers and very cold. Lows -4 to -1 C, highs 3-6 C.

SUNDAY ... Severe frost followed by isolated wintry showers, some snow accumulations in north, sunny intervals developing in south and east. Lows about -6 to -3 C and highs 2-5 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Options remain for this period, some guidance shows severe cold and a risk of snow in central counties, with a cold rain possibly reaching Kerry and west Cork but sleet there on hills too. Another solution shows more snow in Leinster and Irish Sea streamer potential. As the models are currently struggling with details, the best forecast at the moment is probably to say very cold with potential for some snow, temperatures may be as cold as -8 C overnight and may not make it much past freezing, if at all, during the daytime hours (except for 4-7 C in west Munster in a somewhat warmer air mass for part of Monday at least).

OUTLOOK ... Naturally with that much uncertainty five days out, the forecast beyond mid-week next week is very uncertain indeed, and could go three different ways -- one would be a prolonged cold spell under high pressure with severe frosts at night and some ice fog. Another would be a slow return to milder temperatures in a slack southwest flow. A third option depicted on one model overnight would be a cold easterly that digs in for quite a while with snow potential near the east coast. Somehow, I suspect a colder solution may verify, the Atlantic is rapidly losing energy and retrogression (east to west movement of upper level steering currents) is underway.

For Britain, the trends will be similar, but tonight's strong winds will only reach Wales and southwest England tomorrow morning. Chances for snow will be somewhat different in timing and origins, with disturbances in the North Sea not affecting Ireland in play for England at times.

Over most of North America, the colder air masses are gaining ground in central regions behind a weak system crossing Michigan overnight. This will gain some energy when it reaches the New England coast and 5-10 cm of snow may develop around Boston and Portland Maine. Only light or trace amounts are expected in NYC or Washington DC late today and Friday morning. A stronger storm appears likely around Sunday, breaking away from an area of showers in Arizona and New Mexico that have brought an end to a long dry spell in the desert regions. It remains very mild further north in western regions. My local weather on Wednesday was sunny and mild with the high around 10 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 30 January, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Windy and continued rather cold, although somewhat milder than recent days -- showers will be more frequently rain or sleet than snow, but snow is still possible on higher ground and occasionally lower down. Highs will be noted fairly early in the day, 5-7 C and temperatures may slump down somewhat in the afternoon, which may return snow to the picture more often especially in the north. Winds will remain moderate northwest to north at about 50-80 km/hr with some higher gusts near north facing coasts and on some higher ground. There may also be some decent sunny intervals by afternoon in the southeast.

TONIGHT ... Becoming bitterly cold with passing snow showers giving a trace to 3 cm cover by morning, heavier amounts on northern higher terrain. Winds northwest 50-80 km/hr in exposed locations but much lighter inland at times allowing frost and ice to develop. Lows -4 to -2 C but feeling like -8 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy and very cold, with a more blustery north wind returning, 70-110 km/hr, passing snow showers or squalls likely, rain or hail only in some of the more temperature coastal areas such as Kerry. Highs only 2-4 C and feeling sub-freezing in the strong winds. Light snow cover may come and go, 1-3 cms possible.

SUNDAY ... Severe frosts by morning with lows -7 to -3 C. Although some snow showers will continue, winds will become moderate and longer dry or even sunny intervals will develop. Highs will struggle to reach 2 C and it may feel as cold as -3 C.

MONDAY ... Rain or sleet will try to push into west Munster. This may turn to snow east of a Listowel to Kinsale line and on higher ground in Kerry. That snow (5-15 cm potential) may be confined to midlands but could extend further east, details yet to be clarified with models not that similar yet. Morning lows -6 to -2 C in most of north and east, -2 to +2 in southwest. Highs generally close to 1 C at best and possibly below zero in parts of Ulster, but 4-7 C in Kerry, 2-5 C Cork and Limerick, south Clare.

TUESDAY ... Another interval of snow may become rather heavy for a while as a new shot of very cold air pushes in from the north. There is some chance of a polar low but with colder temperatures than we saw with last night's system. Temperatures may be as low as -8 C to -2 C for much of the day except reaching 2-5 C in west Munster and coastal Connacht. There is potential for about 10 cm of snow in parts of Ulster and Leinster, lesser amounts elsewhere.

OUTLOOK ... Eventually most guidance shows cold but settled weather, the chances of a prolonged freezing spell with east winds remains a slight risk but more likely the high will sit over Ireland rather than to the north, and eventually it could turn a bit milder again although not very rapidly and nights will remain very frosty.

Britain will probably see more snow in general but the pattern will be otherwise broadly similar. Some very strong winds could accompany Saturday's polar low if it moves down the east coast.

North America has bitterly cold air across most eastern regions and a new shot of cold is moving south into central Canada to reach the Midwest tonight and tomorrow. A rather weak snowfall event over New York state threatens to intensify over the heavy snow pack of eastern Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine today, 10-20 cms could fall there (on top of 50-80 cm on the ground from the recent blizzard). Another storm will develop from the remnants of a rainfall producing low in the desert southwest region today, and this could bring 10-30 cm snowfalls to parts of the mid-Atlantic states between Richmond VA and central New Jersey on the weekend. The west remains quite mild and my local weather on Thursday was sunny and fairly mild at 8 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 31 January, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

There is not enough certainty about snow potential on Monday or Tuesday to warrant an advance alert, just a note to readers that there is a chance of some disruptive snowfalls -- meanwhile we can be more certain of some measurable snowfalls today in higher parts of the north, and strong winds making it feel like -3 C.

TODAY ... Windy and very cold with passing wintry showers, and a growing tendency for these to produce snow again, as upper level temperatures are slowly falling. This will mean that the morning temperatures, 3-6 C will remain the daily maxima and some places could actually see colder temperatures after snow showers. 3-5 cms of snow possible in the usual higher parts of the north, trace to 2 cm temporary accumulations may come and go elsewhere. But there will also be some longer sunny intervals in the east and south by mid-day and afternoon. Winds northerly 50-80 km/hr but some gusts to 110 km/hr in exposed coastal and upland locations.

TONIGHT ... Snow showers continuing, some slight accumulations, also some clear intervals, moderate northerly winds 30-60 km/hr but even so, frost will be widespread and lows -5 to -2 C except near 2 C in onshore coastal locations such as north coast, west Kerry.

SUNDAY ... Sunny intervals, very cold, isolated snow showers mainly confined to north and west. Highs 2-5 C. Less windy and dropping off to almost calm by evening.

SUNDAY NIGHT into MONDAY we will be tracking a low that may brush past west Munster with rain or sleet near the coasts and some snow potential inland. This has remained somewhat inconclusive from one model run to the next and I don't expect much clarity on this situation until later today. If snow does develop, it would be around Clare, Limerick, Cork and nearby parts of the midlands. There could also be some isolated snow showers near the east coast from the Irish Sea. However, for most other places, this period will be dry and cold with lows -6 to -2 C and highs 1-4 C.

TUESDAY brings another risk of snow, once again not a definite prospect yet, but potential exists for 5-10 cm snowfall streamers in coastal regions, and possibly at times on both sides of the country. Lows -7 to -3 C and highs about 1 or 2 C at best.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY are likely to remain very cold and there will be further opportunities for local snow showers coming inland from the east or north. However most places will remain dry and there may be sunshine at times as daytime highs remain in the 1-4 C range, while overnight lows will stay well below -4 C.

OUTLOOK ... Cold and dry although with some moderation especially for western coastal counties. Nights will remain frosty, days could be partly or mostly sunny with light winds, and except where any fog or frost linger, the days should warm up a little at least, to around 5 or 6 C. One or two very mild days could follow around the 9th or 10th of February but this may yield to a renewed cold and unsettled pattern.

Over in Britain, they are likely to see widespread snow or sleet today (a cold rain possible near the North Sea coast) and stronger winds at times, with a low moving south near Lincolnshire and East Anglia. Otherwise, the cold and sometimes snowy scenario is likely to prevail there too and perhaps with somewhat more intensity.

North America is waving goodbye to one weak snowfall event today although it has given 10-15 cm snow in Maine, while a stronger one develops over Kansas and Nebraska, heading for the Ohio valley and the northeast states over the weekend. Somewhat milder air will be forced north by this storm and Washington DC will probably see mostly rain from it but severe cold and a bit of snow will follow. This storm threatens to attain almost blizzard intensity for New England and Long Island by Sunday, with 20-40 cm snowfalls on top of the metre of snow already on the ground in places.

The west remains tranquil, while rain is falling in the desert southwest. My local weather on Friday was sunny and a bit cooler than recent days at about 6 degrees, and a thick fog has formed this evening with a temperature of -1 C.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 1st of February, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

SNOWFALL WATCH -- The uncertainty involved at this stage causes me to choose a "watch" over an "alert" but there will be significant chances for measurable snowfalls on Monday and Tuesday. The Monday risk is mainly in the inland portions of west Munster, and possibly near some northern coasts. The Tuesday risk is more widespread and depends on low pressure forming in a generally north to northeast flow of very cold air. The more organized this meso-scale low becomes, the heavier any snowfall associated would become, and also a stronger risk of onshore streamers in coastal Leinster developing in its wake later Tuesday. At this point, I would say chances are perhaps a bit better than 50-50 on both of these events bringing snow.

TODAY ... Mostly sunny and very cold, some onshore sleety or mixed wintry showers in parts of the north and west but even there, mostly dry conditions for most in the region. Highs only 2-4 C. A welcome feature will be somewhat lighter winds that will drop off to calm late in the afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Severe frost will develop in the north and east, lows -5 to -2 C. Cloud will spread into west and south, some light sleet or snow could develop inland around counties such as Limerick, Cork, Kerry, and nearby parts of Clare, Tipps, Waterford. Rain or sleet would be likely on outer coasts of Kerry where temperatures may stay as mild as 3-4 C.

MONDAY ... Continued very cold with any snow or sleet that develops in west Munster edging back to south and dissipating after leaving 2-5 cm cover in places. Variable cloud in south and west, partly sunny in north and east, isolated wintry showers. Highs generally 2-5 C but 4-8 C in west Munster.

TUESDAY ... A strong risk exists for a measurable snowfall spreading south in at least the eastern half of Ireland and some western counties as well. Heavier snow could develop and the potential is anywhere from 5 to 25 cms. Heavy snow streamers are possible during the mid-day and afternoon in Leinster, although these could be sleety at the shoreline due to the warmth of the sea surface. Morning lows around -4 C then daytime readings in the range of -1 to +3 C, the colder options would be associated with heavier snowfall outcomes. I hope that this uncertain situation will be clarified later today so watch for an update this afternoon or evening.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will continue very cold, but with diminishing risk of snow beyond some local coastal flurries on Wednesday. Higher pressure will build up and this will continue to produce very cold nights, in the range of -8 to -4 C, but days will slowly modify from near freezing at first to around 5 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... the model consensus is for a slightly warmer pattern although with continued frosts at night, more likely to be severe in the inland south and central counties. Highs are indicated to be slowly creeping upwards towards 8 C. However, it's a pattern that could easily break down to another significant cold spell later on. It does not look conducive to any sort of long-term steady warming trend although some rather mild days could develop for a short interval in the north and west.

Over Britain today, heavy snow showers (sleet near the east coast) will develop with strong northerly winds gusting to 90 km/hr. The western parts of Britain will have more similar conditions to Ireland, partly sunny and cold, local snow showers near the Welsh coasts. Going forward, the forecast for Britain will be similar to the above, with widespread snow potential Tuesday. Some very severe frosts are likely mid-week and colder spots in the north could be as low as -15 C.

In North America, the Ohio valley, lower Great Lakes and inland northeast are bracing for 20-30 cms of snow today and Monday followed by severe cold. This storm will drag up some 10-15 C air from the southeast states and that might reach Atlantic City while New York City will be in a transitional zone with mixed frozen precipitation making a mess. Further west, the very cold air will be pushing in but most of it will wait for a better opportunity to move south in a day or two further east. Mild air will remain in place over Texas and the southwest where rain is largely done now. Light rain is moving onto the west coast early today. My local weather on Saturday was foggy to start, then mostly cloudy, dry with a high of 8 C.

WATCH FOR UPDATES ON THE TUESDAY SNOWFALL RISK

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Sunday 1st of February, 2015 _ 1900h
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For Tuesday's snow potential, I am still cautiously optimistic (if you like snow, that is) for outbreaks of 5-10 cm at least in various parts of the country, most notably higher portions of the northwest, and inland central Leinster. The range continues to be quite large from available guidance and upper temperatures are not quite "perfect" either, suggesting that some showers close to sea level could fall as sleet or hail. Will upgrade the watch to an alert for Tuesday if I retain this level of optimism or better by the Monday morning forecast.

Meanwhile, ALERT is now in place for a limited area of 2-5 cm snowfalls late tonight across parts of west Munster. Areas such as Abbeyfeale, Newcastle West, Mallow, and most of west Cork away from the immediate coast, as well as higher inland parts of Kerry, are included in this alert. I don't currently see this snowfall likely to reach quite as far east as Ennis, Limerick (city) or east Cork but there could be scattered flurries there as well as in a few other areas further north too. This snow could be mixed with freezing drizzle and some roads in west Munster could become very slippery before dawn. Confidence is about 70% on this event as it is both weak and somewhat marginal.

The Tuesday event would be considerably more widespread and has the potential to include some heavy falls of snow if everything comes together. Next update likely to be with the morning forecast around 0630 to 0700h.

Check the snowfall threads for other updates and perspectives.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 2 February, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for scattered outbreaks of snow mixed with freezing drizzle, mostly in higher parts of west and north today, drive with caution in higher parts of West Munster, north Connacht and west Ulster, less travelled roads may be very icy above 250m today ... and ADVANCE ALERT for the risk of locally heavy snowfall bands Tuesday, probably less than complete coverage of all regions but 40 to 70 per cent of the country may see at least 1-3 cm and some places 5-15 cm in heavier snow streamers.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy this morning, scattered outbreaks of light snow mixing with freezing drizzle on higher parts of inland west and north, sleet or a cold drizzly rain near western and northern coasts. Most of this inclement weather will clear by afternoon to allow for some sunny breaks and it will remain quite cold, highs 2-5 C (except near 7 C some outer headlands in west and north). Light winds may become moderate westerly by late in the day in northern counties.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, isolated wintry showers at first, but outbreaks of sleet or snow by morning spreading rapidly south across the country. Snow may begin to accumulate to 2-4 cm in parts of Ulster and north Connacht. Lows about -2 C but temperatures may rise along the west coast to +3 C and some light rain may develop there.

TUESDAY ... Sleet or snow in some regions, more likely in higher parts of west and north, and by mid-day in much of Leinster as streamers develop there from Irish Sea, extending inland towards Kildare, Laois and Offaly. Snow will be heavier on higher ground and further inland, sleet or a cold rain possible near coasts. Amounts of snow quite variable but potential for 5-15 cms in some areas. Highs about 2-5 C, mildest near west coast. Winds becoming north then northeast 40-70 km/hr adding some chill. These winds may be stronger near the west coast from early morning, increasing later in the day for eastern counties.

WEDNESDAY will start with a more severe frost under clearing skies, just a few remnant snow showers near exposed coasts. Lows -5 to -2 C. Sunny for most regions during the day, highs 3-7 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue mostly clear and cold, with severe frosts in the -6 to -3 C range, and highs about 3-7 C Thursday, 5-8 C Friday.

OUTLOOK ... The most likely outcome will be a continued cool, dry pattern with significant frosts but more seasonable daytime highs, and a slow increase in cloudiness but little precipitation.

Over Britain, these early chances for snow will be matched by equally scattered and somewhat isolated outbreaks, but probably with some heavier amounts eventually in parts of Scotland and northern England.

In North America, the northeastern states are bracing for the arrival of a heavy snowstorm that has given Chicago 40 cms on Sunday. Similar amounts are possible in Boston and Portland Maine, while New York City can expect some snow but a change to freezing rain or sleet. Rain will fall from central New Jersey south, but all regions will turn bitterly cold by evening as the low races off to the east, bringing a blizzard to Atlantic Canada by Tuesday. Milder for most of the west, my local weather on Sunday brought light rain and a high of about 8 C.

WILL UPDATE TUESDAY SNOWFALL OUTLOOK AROUND 7 P.M. AS WE TRACK LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH FROM ARCTIC REGIONS EAST OF ICELAND, THE DETAILS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN EVEN NOW AND THIS UPDATE MAY CLARIFY THE PROSPECTS FOR SNOW IN VARIOUS REGIONS

M.T. Cranium

SNOWFALL WATCH UPDATE _ Mon 2 Feb 2015 _ 7 p.m.
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Guidance continues to be somewhat scattered but would currently say that chances for snowfall accumulations on Tuesday are best in higher portions of the northwest, and moderate in some parts of the inland east-central regions.

Would expect some 3-5 cm accumulations after midnight and through the morning hours in higher portions of Donegal, Derry, Tyrone, Fermanagh, Sligo, Leitrim, Roscommon, Mayo and Galway. Rain or sleet is more likely close to sea level but this could change to wet snow later in the event.

The prospects for Irish Sea streamers reaching land remain uncertain and some guidance is more conducive for this to happen than others. If it does happen, it would likely be during the afternoon and evening hours when a better gradient and wind direction are possible, during the morning the surface flow might be from the colder land out over the Irish Sea but eventually a slack northeast flow develops and then intensifies somewhat by afternoon.

Here again, there would be mixing issues near the coasts and the Dublin urban heat island might be enough of a factor to prevent some snow from accumulating, so that some distance inland and upslope on the Dublin and Wicklow hills might be the best places to expect snow to accumulate. Potential amounts would be anywhere from a couple of centimetres to perhaps 10 cm if everything came together.

This could all change one way or the other by morning as we are dealing with a rather odd pattern with weak low pressure dropping due south from the vicinity of Jan Mayen Island east of Greenland. If this tangles with the higher ground of western Scotland and loses identity, the results might be a general lack of precipitation in eastern counties of Ireland. If it held together as well as a few models are showing, it could become the focus of some locally heavy snowfall amounts in some central counties too.

So in other words, uncertainty rules and the situation becomes basically a nowcast.

Therefore I am going on holiday. Just kidding but I will be next weekend.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 3 February, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for a slippery mixture of wet snow and freezing drizzle in parts of the inland west-central counties, and some locally heavier snow over hills in the north. WATCH continues for Leinster as there is a slight risk of streamer development this afternoon and evening when stronger winds develop.

TODAY ... Cloudy over western and central regions, outbreaks of sleet, wet snow mixed with some freezing drizzle, trending to rain on the west coast. Some slippery or icy roads may be encountered especially at higher elevations from west Ulster south to about Tipps, Limerick. Heavier snow could develop on higher terrain especially in Donegal, Mayo and nearby counties. Some sunshine with local ice fog in eastern counties, slight risk of snow or sleet showers by afternoon or evening in central Leinster. Highs will vary from about 5 C on west coast to 2 C in the central mixed precipitation zone to near zero C in some inland portions of Leinster although near 4 C on the coast. Winds are moderately strong from the north along the west coast this morning, and light elsewhere. The stronger winds will become more northeasterly as they gradually envelop the rest of the country albeit rather gradually from now to mid-afternoon. Some gusts to 70 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Isolated snow showers dying out then clear and very cold, ice fog in places, lows -7 to -3 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Morning fog or low cloud, but becoming mostly sunny, cold. Highs recovering to 4-7 C west, 1-3 C east.

OUTLOOK ... A long dry spell is expected to follow as a very strong high develops over the eastern Atlantic and drifts to a halt over Ireland by the weekend. This will continue the very cold nights albeit with some moderation especially near west and north coasts where low cloud may keep temperatures above freezing for a few places, otherwise, lows mainly -6 to -3 C and highs gradually improving from near 5 C to 9-10 C in coastal areas and 5-8 C inland.

For Britain, some heavier outbreaks of snow or sleet today in a rather disorganized pattern of slow-moving precipitation drifting south to southwest, multiple areas will see some of this, travel with caution as icy roads may develop and this could persist for several days given the expected very low temperatures at night.

Meanwhile in North America, yesterday's New England snowstorm is now a blizzard for New Brunswick and parts of Nova Scotia in eastern Canada, while extremely cold air spreads south into the eastern U.S. and the Great Lakes region. A weak disturbance will follow with 3-5 cm snowfalls in some areas. Milder in stages across central regions and the inland west. Some rain at times on the coast. My local weather on Monday was cloudy with occasional light rain and a high of 7 C.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 4 February, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

Astronomy note: Did the Moon appear full to you last night? It was -- at 2309h or 11:09 p.m., the Moon was aligned with the sun and the earth, but below our shadow in space, so no eclipse. Tonight if you have clear skies, you will notice Jupiter fairly close to the Moon, and if you then look to the left, you will find fainter Regulus.

TODAY will be another bitterly cold day for most, and with almost all the wintry showers gone, dry apart from some scattered ice fog. There could be some weak sleety showers drifting around near northern coasts, but for most inland the sun will probably make a fairly long appearance eventually. Highs could be held down to -1 C in some places, but should reach 3-5 C around coastal areas.

TONIGHT will bring more ice fog and some of this may become quite dense and cause hazardous driving conditions, especially in parts of the inland south and central counties. Very slightly milder in the north under low cloud. Lows generally -8 to -4 C, but near -1 C around some coasts and far north.

THURSDAY will bring more cloud as a very weak trough tries to tangle with the high pressure, the results are likely to be a few sleety or wintry showers in Ulster but little if any snow or sleet further south as this activity dies out. Highs generally -1 to +3 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY will be governed by the strong high pressure area which will be moving a little closer each day, but as it has some milder air aloft, there is some danger of inversion fog developing, at least inland and in some valleys. Otherwise it should be a rather calm, cold period with overnight lows around -7 to -3 C and highs creeping up a degree or so each day in the range of 3 to 6 C, except where inversions keep fog around longer, then it could stay below freezing all day in one or two locations.

OUTLOOK calls for a very quiet spell of weather in general, although with slightly more cloud and some chance of very light showers.

I will resume more extensive forecasts for Britain and North America tomorrow, check yesterday's text for those details as they remain valid. My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with a bit of light rain at times and a high near 8 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 5 February, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


All guidance currently suggests that sprawling high pressure will slowly drift east from the Atlantic to park itself over Ireland for the weekend and part of next week. In fact, the high never really goes very far, just weakening slightly mid-week (next week) with the possibility of a second high drifting in to take its place. As conditions will be rather variable from place to place, the forecasts will have to account for a wide range of possible weather. But it will certainly be rather dry, once the current weak activity dies out.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, a few sleety showers possible but mostly in the north and west, and amounts trace to 2 mm at most. A little sunshine may break through in south and east by afternoon. Rather cold although milder than recent days, highs 5-8 C.

TONIGHT ... Clouds generally thinning out, some persistent fog developing but clear skies near coasts, lows in the range of -5 to +2 C. Coldest locations probably in the east-central to south-central counties.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, except for some isolated persistent fog or mist in a few locations. Highs 6-9 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... A strong inversion is likely to develop under very strong high pressure. Where nights are clear, lows could drop to -6 C but any cloud might keep temperatures closer to -1 C. Daytime conditions may become sunny around coastlines and in some other areas, but expect at least some persistent low cloud and even lingering fog. This will cause maximum temperatures to vary considerably, from about 8 C in sunshine, to 2-4 C in any fog or low cloud.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... This settled, generally bland weather with the risk of some rather cold nights from time to time, will continue for perhaps another week or even longer.

In Britain, there is a certain amount of sleet moving through the southeast today, but in general, the same dry, settled and foggy conditions are likely in much of Britain. Some of the best weather may actually be in northern Scotland where the slight gradient around the high will allow the air to mix and therefore it will more easily warm up there.

Over most of the eastern U.S. and Canada, it continues rather cold and a much colder air mass is moving south for the weekend after some rather light snowfalls today. The west is very mild and will be under a steady stream of rain on the coast, changing to snow over higher inland regions, but most of this will stay north of California and Nevada so the desert southwest will remain warm and dry. My local weather on Wednesday was mild with a dry morning, then light rain arriving, getting heavier overnight. The high reached 11 degrees.