Atlantic Storm Watch: December 2013

Hooter23 · 12-12-2013 11:46pm

What kind of wind speeds are we looking at for sundays storm on recent charts? (Sustained winds & gusts)

dopolahpec · 12-12-2013 11:54pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Looks like we are escaping a little monster on Sunday.

If that hit Ireland at that stage of development. We'd be in trouble I'd say.

ninebeanrows · 12-12-2013 11:57pm

dopolahpec wrote: »

If that hit Ireland at that stage of development. We'd be in trouble I'd say.

Yup sure would, but looks very unlikely unless some major delay in its developed and change in angle of Jet.

IF it hit at that stage we'd be talking 100knot gust range for exposed west coasts.

ninebeanrows · 13-12-2013 12:11am

18z GEFS hinting at perhaps a new trend for the development of a third low, inbetween Saturday and Sunday's features!

gens-15-1-54.png?18

maquiladora · 13-12-2013 12:13am

18Z HIRLAM has downgraded Saturday's winds slightly. Not much change on the 18Z GFS.

I don't think there's any chance Sunday's low will track far enough south to have any real impact on us. Strong systems that wind up like that always turn more to the left/north.

ninebeanrows · 13-12-2013 10:57am

Looking windy enough Saturday morning.

Here are progged 925hPa winds.

Also must watch possible kink in Isobars later Saturday which crosses country.

Here is GME's take on it.

gme-0-48.png?13-00

howlinwolf · 13-12-2013 2:47pm

this is for the more intelligent than me, is the blocking setup that we have been unfortunately been living under the last few weeks any way related to what now looks like a very stormy atlantic period. or is just the weather balancing itself out.

gugsy · 13-12-2013 4:39pm

Winds and gusts picking up now in galway city. Mace head recording wind speed of 32knots and gusts of 43. With the strongest wind between 3am tonight and 12pm tomorrow it will be interesting to see what speeds are recorded around the country.

Tindie · 13-12-2013 6:04pm

is there a another strom next week? for most of england ? any one chart from 18- 20 dec 2013?

thanks

Weathering · 13-12-2013 6:30pm

Met Eireann forecasting gusts of 90-110km/h for tomorrow. Nothing out of the ordinary

dopolahpec · 13-12-2013 7:54pm

I can't post a link on phone but anyone else see this depression on the 12z ECM t+120? Looks nasty enough

cyclops999 · 13-12-2013 8:56pm

ESTOFEX has Level 1 for most of Ireland on Saturday.

Harps · 13-12-2013 9:01pm

Tindie wrote: »

is there a another strom next week? for most of england ? any one chart from 18- 20 dec 2013?

thanks

Nothing too serious forecast for the moment, a lot of potential in the charts and I'd be surprised if we get through the week without a storm but for the moment it just like like widespread windy weather

howlinwolf · 13-12-2013 9:26pm

UK weather: Storm Emily set to batter Britain with blizzards and 90mph winds just in time for Christmas build up

13 Dec 2013 16:04 The freak storm is expected to hit much of the country next Thursday bringing gale force winds and heavy downpours across much of the country

the mirror in England is sitting on the fence as usual

howlinwolf · 13-12-2013 9:31pm

Harps wrote: »

Nothing too serious forecast for the moment, a lot of potential in the charts and I'd be surprised if we get through the week without a storm but for the moment it just like like widespread windy weather

should the level 2 warning not be edited out since it seems to most that it will be windy with gales but maybe nothing more, or would it just be safer to leave the warning just in case it turns out a little worse that expected esp in the north west.

_Whimsical_ · 13-12-2013 11:42pm

We had quite a windy afternoon in Galway but not it's as still as can be, not so much as a mild breeze out.

The weather forecast on rte one tonight forecasted winds of max 75km in the west tomorrow and a stormy week ahead.

M.T. Cranium · 14-12-2013 12:21am

The GFS 18z has gotten into the sherry and drawn up a Big Wind 2.0 storm for Christmas Day.

The only real conclusion to draw from all these model runs with their occasional mega-wind events is that the large-scale pattern is very conducive to strong winds. The actual triggering dynamics for these are seldom well modelled before about the 72h time scale in reality, personally I would say the Wed 18th event is more plausible from research variables than the Christmas Day event (which is still 12 days out) but mark down New Years Day as another peak energy date. Models won't pick up on that one until around 21-22 Dec at the earliest.

ninebeanrows · 14-12-2013 12:33am

Yes , with the state of the atmosphere in the coming weeks it would be extremely fortunate if we did not get struck by a severe wind event.

Not including tomorrow morning which still will be very noticeable with gusts from 90-120km/hr.

pauldry · 14-12-2013 12:39am

I think a severe wind event and or a snow event will happen in the next 2 weeks

Wind Wednesday next

Snow December 23 24 probably shortlived

maquiladora · 14-12-2013 12:47am

cyclops999 wrote: »

ESTOFEX has Level 1 for most of Ireland on Saturday.

Yep.

With signals of low-end CAPE, a warm core and another sharp wind maximum (850 hPa winds up to 35 m/s), a potential for widespread and convectively enhanced severe wind gusts exists with the passage of this system.

M.T. Cranium · 14-12-2013 7:53am

Looks dire for Wed night on the ECM, hope that doesn't verify ... but it certainly is plausible. The usual sequence seems to be gradual backing off by shifting these very deep lows a bit further north. As the other models are not quite that intense, will be taking a wait and see position but obviously if that map were to verify, force 12 winds in Donegal Bay and hurricane force gusts on land in northwest, storm force elsewhere.

The GFS continues to scare onlookers with its Christmas maps and the GEM is just toying with us now after some earlier nasty business. The UK model ends just before it might get out of control.

As several have remarked, this pattern has severe windstorm potential and it takes very little on the large scale to turn a borderline windstorm into a damaging event under these circumstances.

_Whimsical_ · 14-12-2013 7:57am

So it's a pretty windy morning in Galway but so far not exceptional.

signostic · 14-12-2013 8:31am

0700z
BELMULLET(A) S 39KTS Gust 61 LIGHT RAIN
MACE HEAD GALWAY(A) S 40KTS Gust 53 LIGHT RAIN

http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp

maquiladora · 14-12-2013 10:03am

Met Eireann upgraded to an Orange Warning for this morning.

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Ireland

Southerly winds will reach mean speeds of 55 to 75 km/h and will gust 95 to 105km/h this morning and for a time this afternoon. But winds may gust to between 110 and 120 km/h along the west coast during Saturday morning.

leahyl · 14-12-2013 10:03am

Pouring out of the heavens and very windy in cork city

Waitsian · 14-12-2013 10:12am

leahyl wrote: »

Pouring out of the heavens and very windy in cork city

Ditto, Dundalk.

maquiladora · 14-12-2013 10:22am

The west/northwest would really get battered on Wednesday if the 0Z ECM was right. Other models don't look to be as intense so unlikely it will be this severe, but worth keeping an eye on.

pad199207 · 14-12-2013 10:43am

Didnt think it was going to be this windy today

dexter647 · 14-12-2013 10:46am

Absolutely horrible out there this morning and going by the latest runs it's going to be a very very turbulent run up to christmas..Mother nature's way of getting us back for the past few weeks:pac:

mickger844posts · 14-12-2013 10:46am

64km/h at my station and 98km/h at Waterford Airport in the last hour.

basillarkin · 14-12-2013 10:52am

I've a game in Clifden @ 1 still no sign of it been called off, leaving Galway in a half an hour, hoping to get a phone call saying it's cancelled.

RuthieRose · 14-12-2013 11:26am

Minor rugby cancelled in Galway city

hypersonic · 14-12-2013 11:27am

looks like the show is over in wexford.

http://wexfordharbour.info/pChart2.1.3/examples/hourlyTemp2.php

pad199207 · 14-12-2013 11:56am

Recent Gust 64 KMH

errlloyd · 14-12-2013 12:00pm

Anyone have any predictions for early evening in Dublin, I'm sitting in the fourth row of the Aviva for the game at 18:00 and MET says it's going to clear up, but I'm not confident.

maquiladora · 14-12-2013 12:01pm

errlloyd wrote: »

Anyone have any predictions for early evening in Dublin, I'm sitting in the fourth row of the Aviva for the game at 18:00 and MET says it's going to clear up, but I'm not confident.

Should be cleared by 3-4pm.

signostic · 14-12-2013 12:10pm

Ireland west airport Knock - flights diverted

EIKN 141100Z 19028G44KT 6000 RA BKN006 OVC010 09/09 Q0996 TEMPO 3000 BKN003

Lumi · 14-12-2013 12:13pm

Max gust in Galway city so far 38mph (61km/h) @ 11.04am
13.2mm of rainfall recorded & rising - a thoroughly miserable morning

Cienciano · 14-12-2013 12:18pm

Miserable. The wind along with the rain, feels like sticking your head out the car window on the motorway in the rain

SpaceTime · 14-12-2013 12:28pm

Extremely wet and windy in Cork City at the moment.

Ireland can feel a bit like a ship's deck in the Atlantic at times like these!

leahyl · 14-12-2013 12:30pm

There are trees down on Rochestown Road and Ballea road in Carrigaline apparently

Red Nissan · 14-12-2013 12:47pm

Blowing a near constant F4, surprisingly little precipitation, vapour being blown around violently.

Scanners are amazingly quite.

ninebeanrows · 14-12-2013 1:40pm

Southerly winds don't usually have same impact as westerlies here but still windy but nothing out of the ordinary.

JanuarySnowstor · 14-12-2013 2:03pm

Very rough in Cork city
Not far off a full blown storm

maquiladora · 14-12-2013 2:15pm

Smash....there goes next door's outdoor christmas lights.

Belmullet 118 km/h gust was the highest so far I think.

leahyl · 14-12-2013 2:15pm

It's bloody atrocious in cork city - shopping at the mo and it's really difficult getting in and out of the car without the door nearly blowing off!!

Red Nissan · 14-12-2013 2:18pm

EICK has had flight diversions, Ryanair from Gdansk landed at Shannon. Ryanair from Liverpool in the holding pattern. Aer Lingus from Munich continuing approach.

52kts at the airport.

Super-Rush · 14-12-2013 2:21pm

Lots of fencing and branches down here in Carlow.

Tis very wild here.

fred funk }{ · 14-12-2013 2:26pm

Power out in Castleknock.

gozunda · 14-12-2013 2:31pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Smash....there goes next door's outdoor christmas lights.

Belmullet 118 km/h gust was the highest so far I think.

Gale force here with some trees down - one which hit a jeep - luckily driver ok.

Was thinking about the Xmas decorations - good job - will remove the excess of light pollution that we have to put up with :-)

Atlantic Storm Watch: December 2013

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