Winter Weather 2015/16 : See Mod Note Post #1

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

Article in the Sindo today (which I can't find on-line) says that the Gulf Stream is the "slowest in 1,000 years" according to some European Institute and that we are in for the Mother of all Winters :eek:

According to the newspapers, every winter we are in for the Mother Of All Winters. Because headlines like Average Winter On The Horizon aren't very sexy.

Going by the summer and this September i believe it will begin snowing lightly in early October and then a constant conveyor belt of the very heavy stuff arriving in November

the eventual thaw will begin in April 2016

WheatenBriar wrote: »

I can see mt's logic in thinking air from the south meeting up with the still colder Atlantic will give us a stormy winter but I wonder
Stormyness of the previous few winters was caused by extremely cold air exiting North America and interacting with the normal Atlantic temp
Its no coincidence that after 2 mammoth US and Canadian winters that surface water temps over the north Atlantic lowered
I dont buy the ice melt theory being the biggest cause of that

Will a flow from a deflected azores high mixing in the N Atlantic cause as stormy a season this winter? I am sceptical, I dont think the drop is enough to make much difference in the temperature variance as one passes over the other compared to what happened recently with bitter air exiting America
So I'm thinking a quieter atlantic and more of an easterly/northeasterly influence on our weather this winter?
Not all the time but enough to satisfy certain fixes around here...

It is going to be interesting to see how it turns out this coming winter. I would agree with that possible north American influence on those SSTs, at least in part.

Just looking at N.Atlantic SST anomalies during Winter 1989/1990, which was one of the stormiest in living memory, they actually look fairly similar to the present, although deviations during the previous August/Sept were not as deep as they are now overall.

Atlantic SST anom for Feb '90. Incredibly stormy month.




Mean SLP & 850 hPa temp departure for that month:



Very tight gradient, which obviously was spurred on by the sharp temp differences between Europe and the Atlantic.

Captain Snow wrote: »

The long range Autumn forecast for eastern parts of Canada and America was issued last Monday from the weather network. It will be below normal . Lots of cold air pushing out into the Atlantic.m:D

It was cold air pushing into the Atlantic from the northeastern US which was one of the factors in the increased Atlantic storms we've seen here in recent winters past.

For the sake of clarity, I was earlier speculating that the cold pool will provide alternating periods of stormy and blocked (cold easterly) circulation types. There is considerable speculation that the El Nino will become central Pacific based (known as a Modoki type El Nino after a Japanese researcher who first suggested the variation). A recent example was 2009-10.

Nuff said.

I have been busy updating my research model to see what sort of background long wave features might be interacting with this rather singular set-up we have. What this tells me at this early stage is that December looks particularly stormy and late January into February looks more suitable for a block to develop over Europe.

This will be studied for several more weeks here at the Craniatorium and I will go out on the usual limb mid-October and drop off the results like those squirrels who like to toss chestnuts onto the roof of your car at this time of year (or do they just fall off at random?).

DOCARCH wrote: »

I can't remember the name of the place, but it's in Sligo...same mountain range as Benbulben.

Benwisken, up near truskmore.

Leaning well snooker?

secman wrote: »

Well....... balls to that !

Well balls indeed.

Metmaster wrote: »

Well they arent far wrong. Sources Ive been seeing are predicting a period around xmas where we will experience blizzard conditions and periods of very heavy snow which, of course, is much like the winter we had in 2010.

Metmaster wrote: »

It cant be predicted but it can be estimated obviously it wont be 100% accurate but by studying the behaviour of our current weather and comparing it to past models can lead to moderately accurate long range forecasts (and more often than not, inaccurate)

Anyone can "estimate" a 3 month forecast,as in come December it will be cold,but my point is some people believe in itemised 3 monthly forecasts,as in there will be heavy snow,it will be extremely stormy,it will be unusually mild etc etc. And I should point out I don't just mean the maddens and the rings and the postmen pats of this world.anyone who thinks they can predict Ireland's weather is a spoofer and a waffler and mother nature makes a fool of them time and time again and will continue to do so.there's no ifs or buts about it,Ireland's weather CANNOT be predicted 3 months ahead,doesn't matter about trends or models,it just can't be done.