Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Options
1…6667697172…339

Comments

  • Options
    #2042
    OhThePenguin
    Registered Users Posts: 225 ✭✭OhThePenguin


    Thierry12 wrote: »
    No you can do it online in a few mins

    Ulster Bank have it on a big banner with 15 mins, that 15 min is very generous more like 5 min

    https://digital.ulsterbank.ie/personal/mortgages/mortgage-agreement-in-principle.html

    What's the alternative to allow someone to bid? If you can't get full approval until after you're sale agreed on a house?


  • Options
    #2043
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    fliball123 wrote: »
    then why have prices not dropped? We have seen demand/access to credit coming down? If you dont think supply is the answer then you seriously need to back to economics class.

    Prices have fallen. They are now back to 2017 levels.

    More will follow in Autumn.

    As for supply, I expect an increase with the autumn selling season.


  • Options
    #2044
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Prices have fallen. They are now back to 2017 levels.

    More will follow in Autumn.

    As for supply, I expect an increase with the autumn selling season.

    oh you were not here for a bit the raw data is in and there are no price drops if Autumn is more of the same then prices may rise there was a blip in May and recovery in June and continued in July


    https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/[/QUOTE]


  • Options
    #2045
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    fliball123 wrote: »
    oh you were not here for a bit the raw data is in and there are no price drops

    https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/

    I am interested in houses in my area which are at 2017 prices.

    I expect significant falls in the near future as banks withhold finance due to loans not performing.


  • Options
    #2046
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Pelezico wrote: »

    I am interested in houses in my area which are at 2017 prices.

    I expect significant falls in the near future as banks withhold finance due to loans not performing.


    Well good luck with that but your blanket statement that prices have dropped to 2017 levels is wrong and I have just proven you wrong. Where are you looking to buy and what proof have you that they are at 2017 levels?


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #2047
    dor843088
    Registered Users Posts: 1,171 ✭✭✭dor843088


    SteelyDanJalapeno wrote: »
    I wish I was bidding against you

    I wish you were bidding on my house. Any ea would pull your pants down.


  • Options
    #2048
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    fliball123 wrote: »
    Well good luck with that but your blanket statement that prices have dropped to 2017 levels is wrong and I have just proven you wrong. Where are you looking to buy and what proof have you that they are at 2017 levels?

    I am not sure what you have proved.

    I just looked up a price fall on myhome a few minutes ago.

    Ede*nmore Avenue...Raheny. looks like a loss to me.


  • Options
    #2049
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,745 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Pelezico wrote: »
    I am not sure what you have proved.

    I just looked up a price fall on myhome a few minutes ago.

    Edenmore Avenue...Raheny. looks like a loss to me.

    A loss ? Are you still looking at asking prices as proof of something ?

    What houses are at 2017 levels ? The only cohort that I’d think that’s valid for is 800k plus, houses in brackets below that continued to rise modestly from 17-20


  • Options
    #2050
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    Cyrus wrote: »
    A loss ? Are you still looking at asking prices as proof of something ?

    Sold for 275k in 2017...now reduced to 275k...stamp duty, buying and selling solicitors, and estate agents fees....yes looking at a loss.

    No.23 went for 295k in 2019. So looks like a drop.


  • Options
    #2051
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,745 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Sold for 275k in 2017...now reduced to 275k...stamp duty, buying and selling solicitors, and estate agents fees....yes looking at a loss.

    No.23 went for 295k in 2019. So looks like a drop.

    They haven’t sold it yet ? A lot of properties are put on at lower prices to encourage bidding , an offer of 275k could well be refused .


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #2052
    Ursabear
    Registered Users Posts: 84 ✭✭Ursabear


    I'm clearly no economist but I'm not sure about the conflicting reports about prices not dropping. Everything I read elsewhere says they have albeit only around 3 per cent https://www.daft.ie/report/ronan-lyons-housingmarketjune2020?fr=touch


  • Options
    #2053
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    Cyrus wrote: »
    They haven’t sold it yet ? A lot of properties are put on at lower prices to encourage bidding , an offer of 275k could well be refused .

    Whatever....reduced from 285k...hardly a ringing endorsement for your theory.


  • Options
    #2054
    Ursabear
    Registered Users Posts: 84 ✭✭Ursabear


    fliball123 wrote: »
    oh you were not here for a bit the raw data is in and there are no price drops if Autumn is more of the same then prices may rise there was a blip in May and recovery in June and continued in July


    https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/

    Sorry again not an economist but if you look at how far the volume of sales dropped on that graph for July would that not indicate there was a very small swathe of successful sales and those are probably the most in demand houses only , possibly new builds and would not actually be indicative of the prices really staying stable. I'm not a statistician but I think the volume needs to come into play in analysing what's going on.


  • Options
    #2055
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 18,749 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Thierry12 wrote: »
    No you can do it online in a few mins

    Ulster Bank have it on a big banner with 15 mins, that 15 min is very generous more like 5 min

    https://digital.ulsterbank.ie/personal/mortgages/mortgage-agreement-in-principle.html

    But you cannot get approval to buy without being sale agreed on a specific property.
    That's why there is aip.
    How would anyone know how much they could bid if they didn't have aip?


  • Options
    #2056
    LJ12345
    Registered Users Posts: 122 ✭✭LJ12345


    Pelezico wrote: »

    I am interested in houses in my area which are at 2017 prices.

    I expect significant falls in the near future as banks withhold finance due to loans not performing.[/quote]

    Read back over these pages around March/April/May. Those houses you mention were sold during lockdown by panicked ‘sale agreed’ sellers to buyers asking for a discount, the buyers got a bargain. That bargain no longer exists.


  • Options
    #2057
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Ursabear wrote: »

    Sorry again not an economist but if you look at how far the volume of sales dropped on that graph for July would that not indicate there was a very small swathe of successful sales and those are probably the most in demand houses only , possibly new builds and would not actually be indicative of the prices really staying stable. I'm not a statistician but I think the volume needs to come into play in analysing what's going on.

    I would agree with you on the volume piece. I don’t think you can look at just 1 data point and come to a conclusion, although many geniuses on this thread do. I think there are a number of variance to consider - applications vs aip vs drawdown vs rejections, volume of units put up for sale new and 2nd hand, length of sales cycle, and on and on and on.


  • Options
    #2058
    Browney7
    Registered Users Posts: 3,099 ✭✭✭Browney7


    fliball123 wrote: »
    Well good luck with that but your blanket statement that prices have dropped to 2017 levels is wrong and I have just proven you wrong. Where are you looking to buy and what proof have you that they are at 2017 levels?

    The CSO December 2017 figure for Dublin (the only statistics that count in my opinion due to standardisation methods etc) 121.1 and the figure for May 20 is 124.1 so it's incorrect to say 2017 levels. The highest level for Dublin prices in this period was 127.7 reached in October 2018. These three numbers show how stats can be spun to suit any and every agenda - the statements "prices are rising/falling" can be supported by published stats.

    Prices tend to increase and decrease at a slow pace. It's interesting to actually see a jump the Dublin index stats in H1 2017 when the CBI changed the deposit rule to be a flat 10% instead of their previous rule where the 10% was up to a certain level and 20% thereafter along with the government launching the HTB. Dublin index went from 109 in January 17 (sales negotiated under rules) to 120.3 in October (sales negotiated under new rules) so a sudden intervention caused a high uptick with bidding wars and increasing the demand side.

    As for looking at raw PPR data, again whilst useful, when sales volumes decrease to statistically insignificant levels, they can give unusual results. If more new builds are sold in a given month compared to previous averages can get skewed (there is research that there is a new build premium - help to buy, better more expensive materials etc).

    Medians can skewed by bulk purchases by REITs/funds especially if total sales numbers are low but these have been flat the past few months.


  • Options
    #2059
    Browney7
    Registered Users Posts: 3,099 ✭✭✭Browney7


    Hubertj wrote: »
    Sorry again not an economist but if you look at how far the volume of sales dropped on that graph for July would that not indicate there was a very small swathe of successful sales and those are probably the most in demand houses only , possibly new builds and would not actually be indicative of the prices really staying stable. I'm not a statistician but I think the volume needs to come into play in analysing what's going on.

    I would agree with you on the volume piece. I don’t think you can look at just 1 data point and come to a conclusion, although many geniuses on this thread do. I think there are a number of variance to consider - applications vs aip vs drawdown vs rejections, volume of units put up for sale new and 2nd hand, length of sales cycle, and on and on and on.

    To be fair, there are "geniuses" on both sides of the debate.


  • Options
    #2060
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,745 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Whatever....reduced from 285k...hardly a ringing endorsement for your theory.

    Ok you keep working off conjecture

    And I’ve sold a couple of properties over the past few years and both were put on at lower prices than we were prepared to sell for .

    But I’m sure you know it all as you have proven over the last week .

    Anyway focusing on a specific house in a specific area is a nonsense it proves very little except related to that specific house .


  • Options
    #2061
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Browney7 wrote: »
    To be fair, there are "geniuses" on both sides of the debate.

    ThTs what I mean! Your other post provided FACTS and DATA which are all that really matters...


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #2062
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    K*lcross Grove.

    Interesting reduction to 330000 which is marginally below 2019 price of 345000 but still well above 2015 price of 263000.


  • Options
    #2063
    SteelyDanJalapeno
    Registered Users Posts: 14,240 ✭✭✭✭SteelyDanJalapeno


    dor843088 wrote: »
    I wish you were bidding on my house. Any ea would pull your pants down.

    Fair enough


  • Options
    #2064
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Pelezico wrote: »
    K*lcross Grove.

    Interesting reduction to 330000 which is marginally below 2019 price of 345000 but still well above 2015 price of 263000.

    I wouldn’t live in kilcross if you paid me €345k.


  • Options
    #2065
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    Hubertj wrote: »
    I wouldn’t live in kilcross if you paid me €345k.

    I suppose you think it is overpriced then.

    The market said 345k in 2019.


  • Options
    #2066
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Pelezico wrote: »
    I suppose you think it is overpriced then.

    The market said 345k in 2019.

    I don’t think anything of it because I would never consider living there.
    Google kilcross and decide for yourself. Place has been a hole for over 20 years.


  • Options
    #2067
    Reversal
    Registered Users Posts: 402 ✭✭Reversal


    fliball123 wrote: »
    oh you were not here for a bit the raw data is in and there are no price drops if Autumn is more of the same then prices may rise there was a blip in May and recovery in June and continued in July


    https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/

    But why is the data represented in this at odds with the residential property price index. The data on your link shows all time high prices every month this year. The CSO figures clearly show gradually falling prices since 2018.

    I'll stick with the CSO figures as apposed to unverified stats often posted here by vest interests.


  • Options
    #2068
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Pelezico wrote: »
    I am not sure what you have proved.

    I just looked up a price fall on myhome a few minutes ago.

    Ede*nmore Avenue...Raheny. looks like a loss to me.

    Look you can bring a horse to water but you cant make them drink, do you not see 2020 figures for July higher than at any point within the year of 2017. The Raw data is there if you choose not to look at it then there is no point talking to you but I will pull you up on lies spouting houses are back to 2017 levels and I will just include that link and anyone looking to buy or sell will be able to see the TRUTH for themselves


  • Options
    #2069
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Reversal wrote: »

    But why is the data represented in this at odds with the residential property price index. The data on your link shows all time high prices every month this year. The CSO figures clearly show gradually falling prices since 2018.

    I'll stick with the CSO figures as apposed to unverified stats often posted here by vest interests.

    It shows the Medan price not the all time high prices


  • Options
    #2070
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Reversal wrote: »
    But why is the data represented in this at odds with the residential property price index. The data on your link shows all time high prices every month this year. The CSO figures clearly show gradually falling prices since 2018.

    I'll stick with the CSO figures as apposed to unverified stats often posted here by vest interests.

    It shows the Medan price not the all time high prices and your not going to take the PPR as a valid verified stat on house prices as that is where the information is coming from?


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #2071
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    fliball123 wrote: »
    Look you can bring a horse to water but you cant make them drink, do you not see 2020 figures for July higher than at any point within the year of 2017. The Raw data is there if you choose not to look at it then there is no point talking to you but I will pull you up on lies spouting houses are back to 2017 levels and I will just include that link and anyone looking to buy or sell will be able to see the TRUTH for themselves


    Like a previous poster said, the CSO numbers paint a different story with slight declines since 2018.


This discussion has been closed.
Advertisement