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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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    #2012
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Iceman29 wrote: »
    100%

    So does it take a few minutes for someone to from seeing a property they like to getting turned down on drawdown?? I take it that all the form filling and phone calls to estate agents were a figment of my imagination, or trying to sort out life and home insurance.. yeah but its all just a dream.


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    #2013
    Iceman29
    Site Banned Posts: 149 ✭✭Iceman29


    Cyrus wrote: »
    True but as a seller you would want to make sure your ea is filtering these people out as it’s a pain having a sale fall through .

    Yes but I'm sure EAs are more than happy to keep them in bumping up the price with monopoly money


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    #2014
    JJJackal
    Registered Users Posts: 1,016 ✭✭✭JJJackal


    fliball123 wrote: »

    But no one knows what might happen between point A and Point B say the Bar owner dies and the kids dont want to open and just want to sell, then you have no job. The only measure for success should be when your business is back open and the state is no longer helping with paying your employees. The employee should be back off Covid payments for at least 3 months before they can draw down a mortgage

    The Bar owner may die. This is a risk that everyone faces daily. Potentially profitable businesses typically reopen in this type of scenario though eg rented out or sold

    Interestingly and far more probable in the short term the bar may reopen selling food and beer (there are lots of bars that didnt really do food that are packed with people having food now).

    Government support maintains the link between the employee and the employer facilitating quick return to work should the opportunity present


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    #2015
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 18,749 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Thierry12 wrote: »
    AIP can be done online in a few mins

    You can lie through your teeth to get it

    No one should be bidding with it

    ?
    You can only have aip until you identify & go sale agreed on an actual property.


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    #2016
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    MacronvFrugals wrote: »
    I wouldn't put too much hope into the Russian vaccine considering one their head doctors resigned over reckless practices pushing the vaccine through testing too quickly.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8622761/Russias-doctor-quits-gross-violations-ethics-rushed-Covid-19-vaccine.html

    Well that is just one of the hundreds of vaccines already in stage 3 of trials and regardless of what this doctor thinks it is been given out to the Russian Army and the Prime Ministers kids but I take the point the Ruskies are a bit loony when it comes to certain things


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    #2017
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,817 ✭✭✭hometruths


    fliball123 wrote: »
    Lets just be clear at the demand has to continue to drop to meet supply, the figures where put up for you and prices have not dropped yet. Do you not agree on what is widely regardless as rule one or Ecconomics 101 supply vs demand = price ? if supply falls it has an effect on price if demand falls it has an effect on price if they both fall which is what has happened over the last few months and falling pretty much at the same rate, then price does not change. But like I said if you dont believe me look at the stat that was put up about the price of property and even with less transactions going through there has been no price drop in property.

    We are 6 months in to the pandemic and there is phuck all proof of what your trying to spin. The stats are there to back up what I have been saying and what has actually happened.

    The other points are what if everything gets back on track , what if the Ruskies have a cure then people looking for a drop will be left waiting as once lads who are back off their corona payments they will be in the queue to get a property and driving demand again.

    I'm not trying to spin anything.

    I was simply replying to your point that supply will drop because would be sellers in a strong position will not sell.

    Leaving only the weak sellers in the market. The price takers as it were.

    It might take more than 6 months but if the scenario you are predicting pans out - strong sellers reducing supply - alongside weak buyers reducing demand, prices will fall as sure as night follows day.

    It's Economics 101.

    I agree if everything gets back to normal that changes things but that's not the point we were discussing. In that scenario the strong sellers will remain in the market as will the weak buyers and presumably prices will remain relatively stable.


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    #2018
    Iceman29
    Site Banned Posts: 149 ✭✭Iceman29


    fliball123 wrote: »
    So does it take a few minutes for someone to from seeing a property they like to getting turned down on drawdown?? I take it that all the form filling and phone calls to estate agents were a figment of my imagination, or trying to sort out life and home insurance.. yeah but its all just a dream.

    So you need all this to make an offer on a house (and in turn driving up the price) do you?


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    #2019
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Cyrus wrote: »
    True but as a seller you would want to make sure your ea is filtering these people out as it’s a pain having a sale fall through .

    Definitely I agree if you are selling tell the EA that you want proof of funds before accepting an offer


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    #2020
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    JJJackal wrote: »
    The Bar owner may die. This is a risk that everyone faces daily. Potentially profitable businesses typically reopen in this type of scenario though eg rented out or sold

    Interestingly and far more probable in the short term the bar may reopen selling food and beer (there are lots of bars that didnt really do food that are packed with people having food now).

    Government support maintains the link between the employee and the employer facilitating quick return to work should the opportunity present

    Maybe but I think the banks should see it as a risk to have anyone looking for a mortgage who is on a covid payment as essentially that job is at risk. As I say if the company is on the up and no longer needs gov support then 3 months in and the employee should be able to get a mortgage


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    #2021
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,880 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Iceman29 wrote: »
    Yes but I'm sure EAs are more than happy to keep them in bumping up the price with monopoly money

    Really neither here nor there for them an extra 20k on a sale is worth f all to them but no sale isn’t good


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    #2022
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    schmittel wrote: »
    I'm not trying to spin anything.

    I was simply replying to your point that supply will drop because would be sellers in a strong position will not sell.

    Leaving only the weak sellers in the market. The price takers as it were.

    It might take more than 6 months but if the scenario you are predicting pans out - strong sellers reducing supply - alongside weak buyers reducing demand, prices will fall as sure as night follows day.

    It's Economics 101.

    I agree if everything gets back to normal that changes things but that's not the point we were discussing. In that scenario the strong sellers will remain in the market as will the weak buyers and presumably prices will remain relatively stable.

    The other issue with supply is that there are very few decent properties up there at the moment. So currently up till now I am right in what I have been saying now will that be the case going forward? Who knows, the next 6 months will bare out what we are arguing about. If prices do drop i will doff my hat to you and admit I was wrong but if it doesn't then you will have to entertain the fact that you were wrong.

    But the main difference between me and you is I have not put out a statement saying buy now prices are only going up, as firstly I dont know other peoples personal or financial details and I wouldn't pretend to be an expert in property either and people need all of the facts when making a decision that will probably be one of the biggest in their life and possible the most expensive. During this discussion I have been putting up what I have been seeing as I have been keeping a close eye on supply. People were going on and on about demand and forgetting all about it


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    #2023
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Iceman29 wrote: »
    So you need all this to make an offer on a house (and in turn driving up the price) do you?

    All I am saying is striving to buy your own property in ireland should not be just a dream for people in this country .


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    #2024
    Iceman29
    Site Banned Posts: 149 ✭✭Iceman29


    Cyrus wrote: »
    Really neither here nor there for them an extra 20k on a sale is worth f all to them but no sale isn’t good

    Well it is in the long run if its the difference between a house going under or over the asking price in a market such as this.


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    #2025
    Bass Reeves
    Registered Users Posts: 18,247 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    SteelyDanJalapeno wrote: »
    I wish I was bidding against you

    I can see now why these people have no houses.......and .at never have.

    Slava Ukrainii



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    #2026
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Iceman29 wrote: »
    Well it is in the long run if its the difference between a house going under or over the asking price in a market such as this.

    I think he is talking about financially an extra 20k would be worth maybe another 100 or 200 quid


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    #2027
    Iceman29
    Site Banned Posts: 149 ✭✭Iceman29


    fliball123 wrote: »
    All I am saying is striving to buy your own property in ireland should not be just a dream for people in this country .

    Fully agree but being able to make an offer on a house with no backing isn't helping anyone except the seller.


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    #2028
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,880 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Iceman29 wrote: »
    Well it is in the long run if its the difference between a house going under or over the asking price in a market such as this.

    Not really they just want sales 10 percent up or down won’t make or break them


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    #2029
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Iceman29 wrote: »
    Fully agree but being able to make an offer on a house with no backing isn't helping anyone except the seller.

    No I take that point but I think it is incumbent on the banks and EAs to streamline their processes and for a bank to be able to tell someone trying to buy that once they have their docs in that they are approved for x amount then that person can set about buying something with in that limit, instead of the other way around where someone sees a property and then bust a nut trying to get the finances together


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    #2030
    Bass Reeves
    Registered Users Posts: 18,247 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Iceman29 wrote: »
    I want to buy a helicopter but unfortunately I can't afford it

    You obviously want to buy a house and cannot afford it/ will not pay for it

    Slava Ukrainii



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    #2031
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,817 ✭✭✭hometruths


    fliball123 wrote: »
    The other issue with supply is that there are very few decent properties up there at the moment. So currently up till now I am right in what I have been saying now will that be the case going forward? Who knows, the next 6 months will bare out what we are arguing about. If prices do drop i will doff my hat to you and admit I was wrong but if it doesn't then you will have to entertain the fact that you were wrong.

    But the main difference between me and you is I have not put out a statement saying buy now prices are only going up, as firstly I dont know other peoples personal or financial details and I wouldn't pretend to be an expert in property either and people need all of the facts when making a decision that will probably be one of the biggest in their life and possible the most expensive. During this discussion I have been putting up what I have been seeing as I have been keeping a close eye on supply. People were going on and on about demand and forgetting all about it

    Again I will reiterate that my post was simply pointing that I think your argument that prices wont fall if supply drops to meet demand because strong sellers are withholding stock is nonsense.

    My point stands irrespective of what has happened thus far and irrespective of what happens in the future. If prices skyrocket 30% from here in the next 6 months your argument on this particular point remains nonsense, and I won't be doffing my hat to you.

    And I am not sure if I have "put out a statement"?


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    #2032
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    schmittel wrote: »
    Again I will reiterate that my post was simply pointing that I think your argument that prices wont fall if supply drops to meet demand because strong sellers are withholding stock is nonsense.

    My point stands irrespective of what has happened thus far and irrespective of what happens in the future. If prices skyrocket 30% from here in the next 6 months your argument on this particular point remains nonsense, and I won't be doffing my hat to you.

    And I am not sure if I have "put out a statement"?



    If you think my point about supply is nonsense then why the phuck have prices not dropped ?? riddle me that you dopey phuck ? you can take your hat and stick it your making no sense and its pointless arguing with someone who wants a price drop and wants a price drop now, I can imagine you over there dancing up and down while I have been proven RIGHT with the latest sales figures but dont let facts or stats get in the way of you wanting a price drop


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    #2033
    Springy Turf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 173 ✭✭Springy Turf


    Thierry12 wrote: »
    Isn't that the important one?

    AIP can be done online in 2 mins

    Well. It means the deal has been done. So it’s not a lot more useful than ppr data.


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    #2034
    Bass Reeves
    Registered Users Posts: 18,247 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    schmittel wrote: »
    Again I will reiterate that my post was simply pointing that I think your argument that prices wont fall if supply drops to meet demand because strong sellers are withholding stock is nonsense.

    My point stands irrespective of what has happened thus far and irrespective of what happens in the future. If prices skyrocket 30% from here in the next 6 months your argument on this particular point remains nonsense, and I won't be doffing my hat to you.

    And I am not sure if I have "put out a statement"?

    Again there are no bulls on this thread only bears. Most here accept that there could be a fall in house prices. However what some posters think is that fall will be sub 10% or less The question for any buyers is it worth putting a house purchase off for a 5-10% drop in the next 6-18 months.
    The answer to this is in a lot of cases where there is rental costs or maybe risk to the ability to draw down a mortgage or the amount required it is better to buy now rather than later.

    However if mammy and daddy are providing you free bed and board you are probably right to not buy and see if there is a price decrease. The risk of prices increasing is minimal but it could happen

    Slava Ukrainii



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    #2035
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    Bass Reeves wrote: »
    Again there are no bulls on this thread only bears. Most here accept that there could be a fall in house prices. However what some posters think is that fall will be sub 10% or less The question for any buyers is it worth putting a house purchase off for a 5-10% drop in the next 6-18 months.
    The answer to this is in a lot of cases where there is rental costs or maybe risk to the ability to draw down a mortgage or the amount required it is better to buy now rather than later.

    However if mammy and daddy are providing you free bed and board you are probably right to not buy and see if there is a price decrease. The risk of prices increasing is minimal but it could happen


    Indulge me. Explain the circumstances that may result in a rise.

    I cannot see any.


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    #2036
    Thierry12
    Closed Accounts Posts: 979 ✭✭✭Thierry12


    fliball123 wrote: »
    Any proof that I am lieing???? AND LETS BE CLEAR IF I HAVE NOT ADVISED ANYONE TO BUY OR SELL

    Not saying you are

    Just highlighting the stupidity of AIP and people bidding on houses with it, shouldn't be allowed in a proper market


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    #2037
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Thierry12 wrote: »
    Not saying you are

    Just highlighting the stupidity of AIP and people bidding on houses with it, shouldn't be allowed in a proper market


    I agree and I have said as much on here


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    #2038
    Thierry12
    Closed Accounts Posts: 979 ✭✭✭Thierry12


    bubblypop wrote: »
    ?
    You can only have aip until you identify & go sale agreed on an actual property.

    No you can do it online in a few mins

    Ulster Bank have it on a big banner with 15 mins, that 15 min is very generous more like 5 min

    https://digital.ulsterbank.ie/personal/mortgages/mortgage-agreement-in-principle.html


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    #2039
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,817 ✭✭✭hometruths


    fliball123 wrote: »
    You have been putting thanks to people saying dont be bidding against anyone put in a low ball offer and leave it there.

    If you think my point about supply is nonsense then why the phuck have prices not dropped ?? riddle me that you dopey phuck ? you can take your hat and stick it your making no sense and its pointless arguing with someone who wants a price drop and wants a price drop now, I can imagine you over there dancing up and down while I have been proven RIGHT with the latest sales figures but dont let facts or stats get in the way of you wanting a price drop

    I will doff my hat to you if you can find any post I have thanked on the strength of advising someone to put in low ball offers.

    I don't want a price drop. I have been consistent on this. Prices dropping are personally bad for my circumstances on this.

    I am not dancing up and down at all. It just irks me when posters pontificate that property supply and demand is a zero sum game. It's misguided at best.


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    #2040
    JJJackal
    Registered Users Posts: 1,016 ✭✭✭JJJackal


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Indulge me. Explain the circumstances that may result in a rise.

    I cannot see any.

    If a vaccine became widely available tomorrow and was manufactured in Ireland and a company in Ireland had the patent, and no one else could make it, house prices in Ireland would rise.

    This is a fact. One of the few on the thread :)


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    #2041
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    schmittel wrote: »
    I will doff my hat to you if you can find any post I have thanked on the strength of advising someone to put in low ball offers.

    I don't want a price drop. I have been consistent on this. Prices dropping are personally bad for my circumstances on this.

    I am not dancing up and down at all. It just irks me when posters pontificate that property supply and demand is a zero sum game. It's misguided at best.

    then why have prices not dropped? We have seen demand/access to credit coming down? If you dont think supply is the answer then you seriously need to back to economics class.


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