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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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    #1982
    Thierry12
    Closed Accounts Posts: 979 ✭✭✭Thierry12


    Iceman29 wrote: »
    So basically there's been a 31% reduction in final approvals
    ie banks tightening the rules.
    31% less people able to draw down.
    31% less demand
    31% less people able to borrow
    31% that will will grow as more job losses happen

    This is pretty massive of everyone is being honest here

    It's more than I thought we would see

    People bidding on properties that they won't be able to draw down and buy is surely an issue now?

    Would love to see sale agreed stat's

    Guessing a load of people have agreed to buy houses, they won't be able to buy


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    #1983
    Browney7
    Registered Users Posts: 3,100 ✭✭✭Browney7


    Thierry12 wrote: »
    It's more than I thought we would see

    People bidding on properties that they won't be able to draw down and buy is surely an issue now?

    Would love to see sale agreed stat's

    Guessing a load of people have agreed to buy houses, they won't be able to buy

    I would have thought it would have been much worse. Lockdown was what, end of March? Any mortgages being drawn down in june to transact are sales negotiated probably from March. Considering we were shut down for 2 months it looks high. It's also consistent with the level of total sales in June 20 Vs June 19 (PPR raw data) so it's not the case that cash sales have fallen off a cliff either.

    I'm in the camp of forecasting 5-10% falls just on the basis that the market was stagnant pre Covid let alone what it could look like in the short term once the post economic reopening flurry has died down.


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    #1984
    Iceman29
    Site Banned Posts: 149 ✭✭Iceman29


    Thierry12 wrote: »
    It's more than I thought we would see

    People bidding on properties that they won't be able to draw down and buy is surely an issue now?

    Would love to see sale agreed stat's

    Guessing a load of people have agreed to buy houses, they won't be able to buy

    Yeah I didn't expect such a big number. 31% is huge and you're dead right about people with AIP bidding on houses. If I was buying a house I'd be putting a low ball offer and leave it there. Wouldn't get involved with a bidding war with someone who can't actually buy it.

    Something should be done about this type of bidding


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    #1985
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Iceman29 wrote: »
    So basically there's been a 31% reduction in final approvals
    ie banks tightening the rules.
    31% less people able to draw down.
    31% less demand
    31% less people able to borrow
    31% that will will grow as more job losses happen

    This is pretty massive of everyone is being honest here

    Was there also a reduction in applications? Is the reduction in final approvals due to increased rejections or a smaller number of applications? Or due to a significantly reduced number of transactions compared to a year earlier?
    I would have thought I t would be a lot more than a 31% reduction given all that is going on.


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    #1986
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    Browney7 wrote: »
    I would have thought it would have been much worse. Lockdown was what, end of March? Any mortgages being drawn down in june to transact are sales negotiated probably from March. Considering we were shut down for 2 months it looks high. It's also consistent with the level of total sales in June 20 Vs June 19 (PPR raw data) so it's not the case that cash sales have fallen off a cliff either.

    I'm in the camp of forecasting 5-10% falls just on the basis that the market was stagnant pre Covid let alone what it could look like in the short term once the post economic reopening flurry has died down.

    I thought it would be worse.

    The payment holiday will start to.impact banks Tier1 capital position. If 10% of borrowers are not repaying, that represents serious headwinds for banks.

    They have no alternative but to reduce lending.

    That said, this number is not consistent with posters saying houses flying off the shelves.


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    #1987
    dor843088
    Registered Users Posts: 1,171 ✭✭✭dor843088


    Iceman29 wrote: »
    Yeah I didn't expect such a big number. 31% is huge and you're dead right about people with AIP bidding on houses. If I was buying a house I'd be putting a low ball offer and leave it there. Wouldn't get involved with a bidding war with someone who can't actually buy it.

    Something should be done about this type of bidding

    Great point. Anyone getting into a bidding war now is just silly. Strong buying positions worth it weight in gold going forward. Bid low and hold.


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    #1988
    Iceman29
    Site Banned Posts: 149 ✭✭Iceman29


    Hubertj wrote: »
    Was there also a reduction in applications? Is the reduction in final approvals due to increased rejections or a smaller number of applications? Or due to a significantly reduced number of transactions compared to a year earlier?
    I would have thought I t would be a lot more than a 31% reduction given all that is going on.

    Not really, solicitors and mortgage brokers were all working during lockdown. The whole paper side of buying a house was all working. The only thing that was affected was the viewings and that wasn't for that long really.


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    #1989
    JJJackal
    Registered Users Posts: 1,016 ✭✭✭JJJackal


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Not sure if this is a good example, but asking prices in this estate in South Dublin are now back at the prices they sold for in 2014.

    This is the house on MyHome.ie: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/11-glenbourne-grove-leopardstown-dublin-18/4447555

    These are the actual selling prices on the same road in the estate according to the Property Price Register over the past number of years: https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/PPR-By-Date&Start=1&Query=[address]=Glenbourne%20Grove%20AND%20%5Bdc_county%5D=Dublin&County=Dublin&Year=&StartMonth=&EndMonth=&Address=Glenbourne%20Grove

    *You may have to copy and paste the link for the Property Price Register page to go to the page for that estate.

    One observation re 23 versus 11 - 23 appears to have an extension - which potentially makes it worth more. So not exactly like with like.

    Need to see sale price for 11 to see how it compares to 23

    Edit: 16 on the other hand looks very very expensive


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    #1990
    SteelyDanJalapeno
    Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭SteelyDanJalapeno


    dor843088 wrote: »
    Great point. Anyone getting into a bidding war now is just silly. Strong buying positions worth it weight in gold going forward. Bid low and hold.

    I wish I was bidding against you


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    #1991
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Thierry12 wrote: »
    Isn't that the important one?

    AIP can be done online in 2 mins

    AIP would be an indicator of demand even if they dont get approval it means the person still wanted to buy


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    #1992
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Hubertj wrote: »
    Was there also a reduction in applications? Is the reduction in final approvals due to increased rejections or a smaller number of applications? Or due to a significantly reduced number of transactions compared to a year earlier?
    I would have thought I t would be a lot more than a 31% reduction given all that is going on.

    Me too were there not 1 million employees on some kind of Covid support that is about half the working population, I would of thought the same number would of been seen in people not getting approvals


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    #1993
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    fliball123 wrote: »
    AIP would be an indicator of demand even if they dont get approval it means the person still wanted to buy

    There must be a lot of rejections.

    Covid payment recipients are probably being rejected


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    #1994
    0gac3yjefb5sv7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,948 ✭✭✭0gac3yjefb5sv7


    SteelyDanJalapeno wrote: »
    I wish I was bidding against you

    Me too. Hold low and lose out.


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    #1995
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    dor843088 wrote: »
    Great point. Anyone getting into a bidding war now is just silly. Strong buying positions worth it weight in gold going forward. Bid low and hold.

    Good luck with that but if you ignore the supply side of this equation then there is no helping you, in less than 6 months we have seen nearly 20% less proerties available on Myhome if that continues the supply vs demand will be pretty much the same..As in if I have 10 apples and 10 people want to buy then the price is set, if 5 people no longer want an apple then the price drops but if we take 5 apples out then the price reset to what it was.

    Seriously any buying or selling look at both sides of this coin I have been saying for months now the supply side is dwindling to a very low level myhome is down 30 from yesterday and the day is not over.


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    #1996
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Pelezico wrote: »
    There must be a lot of rejections.

    Covid payment recipients are probably being rejected

    And rightly so I mean if your employer needs the state to come in and pay some of your wages then your job is not safe and it would be incorrect for a bank to take a risk on you


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    #1997
    JJJackal
    Registered Users Posts: 1,016 ✭✭✭JJJackal


    fliball123 wrote: »
    And rightly so I mean if your employer needs the state to come in and pay some of your wages then your job is not safe and it would be incorrect for a bank to take a risk on you

    Your job is at risk for certain; there is a slight nuance here though - your perfectly successful profitable business is shut down due to COVID (lets say a bar) - when and if COVID is over my business will be successful and profitable again and I will need workers - meanwhile the state pays them


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    #1998
    An Ri rua
    Registered Users Posts: 4,479 ✭✭✭An Ri rua


    fliball123 wrote: »
    AIP would be an indicator of demand even if they dont get approval it means the person still wanted to buy

    That's not demand. That's dreaming.


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    #1999
    Nijmegen
    Registered Users Posts: 3,086 ✭✭✭Nijmegen


    JamesMason wrote: »
    The US economy is in tatters...the UK economy has fell into the deepest recession in living memory. However, in Ireland sure it's grand..quick buy a house now...demand is high ...get in now before it's too late.
    It's like CoVid never happened. Bat**** crazy behaviour. When the penny drops in the autumn the SWHTF.

    The UK economy did indeed fall into the deepest recession in living memory.

    It is also having the fastest return in living memory.

    It's because this was a shut down, not a systemic shut off that a normal recession is.

    Heck, in the US Donald is bragging about having the greatest job creation numbers ever recorded...... Because of the massive drop followed by people swinging back into jobs. Yes it won't all come back and yes some of it will come back more slowly, but saying "the economy is in tatters" is not actually the whole or accurate story.

    But again, the doom sayers here are fighting the last war.
    Cyrus wrote: »
    It’s autumn now is it ? And when it doesn’t happen in autumn it’ll be q1 next year and so on

    Eventually you will be right like a stopped clock

    Amen.
    Iceman29 wrote: »
    So basically there's been a 31% reduction in final approvals
    ie banks tightening the rules.
    31% less people able to draw down.
    31% less demand
    31% less people able to borrow
    31% that will will grow as more job losses happen

    This is pretty massive of everyone is being honest here

    Not ie, banks tightening the rules as mentioned elsewhere. Also conveyancing shutting, life assurance slowing or shutting, building sites shutting....
    Browney7 wrote: »
    I would have thought it would have been much worse. Lockdown was what, end of March? Any mortgages being drawn down in june to transact are sales negotiated probably from March. Considering we were shut down for 2 months it looks high. It's also consistent with the level of total sales in June 20 Vs June 19 (PPR raw data) so it's not the case that cash sales have fallen off a cliff either.

    I'm in the camp of forecasting 5-10% falls just on the basis that the market was stagnant pre Covid let alone what it could look like in the short term once the post economic reopening flurry has died down.

    I do think a small decline is possible. But a 5% decline in the price of a 400k house to 380k, whilst providing you with a smaller mortgage over the lifetime will mean that your repayments if you're a FTB fall from €1,248 per month (UB, FTB looking at their calculator today) to €1,186 per month. Meanwhile, are you renting? For, say, €1,500 or €2,000 per month? Waiting three or six months to see that drop materialise may well not be worth it to be honest.
    Iceman29 wrote: »
    Not really, solicitors and mortgage brokers were all working during lockdown. The whole paper side of buying a house was all working. The only thing that was affected was the viewings and that wasn't for that long really.

    This is incorrect and speaks to the sort of hand waving waffle that permeates this discussion. The property registration authority shut on 27 March for example, for searches and only slowly has been returning service after about a month totally out of action; and Land Registry is still I believe operating a reduced service after being shut for new applications even longer. The probate office closed. The company registration office still continues to operate at reduced capacity (it is required for some searches). Life assurance was stalled significantly, both from the nature of working from home with the data they handle and also because their medical centers had to shut during lockdown for anyone who needed to be assessed.

    There was a tonne of administrative stoppages and delays that mean that "the whole paper side of buying a house" was not, in fact, working normally and continues to work at a reduced capacity.

    As I note above, another thing that will slow down final approvals and houses is that building sites shut. In my own estate they're still building and people who were supposed to be in their new homes for months now will be lucky to get in by Christmas.


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    #2000
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    JJJackal wrote: »
    Your job is at risk for certain; there is a slight nuance here though - your perfectly successful profitable business is shut down due to COVID (lets say a bar) - when and if COVID is over my business will be successful and profitable again and I will need workers - meanwhile the state pays them

    But no one knows what might happen between point A and Point B say the Bar owner dies and the kids dont want to open and just want to sell, then you have no job. The only measure for success should be when your business is back open and the state is no longer helping with paying your employees. The employee should be back off Covid payments for at least 3 months before they can draw down a mortgage


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    #2001
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,809 ✭✭✭hometruths


    fliball123 wrote: »
    It wont if the availability of property goes down as well as the numbers that can buy go down the status quo continues supply vs demand = price this has always been and always will be the basis of any price

    The idea that if supply falls equally to match a fall in demand means that there is no net effect on price is ridiculous:

    The supply is falling because people who might otherwise have property on the market but who don't have to sell, or wish to hold out for a better price, or will wait and see, will decide not to sell.

    So basically less sellers who do not have to sell = drop in supply.

    Demand is falling because unemployment is rising, mortgage approvals are down, people are more cautious, uncertainty will cause them to wait and see.

    So basically less buyers who are the most sensitive to consumer confidence and strength of economy = drop in demand.

    Plenty on here, not just fliball, seem to think that this supply/demand drop will balance each other out and have no significant effect, and that some of us, like myself, are too thick to understand the concept of supply and demand.

    But have they considered that their logic consists of taking the strongest sellers out of the market? - i.e the properties that will be on the market will be forced sellers, and those who don't wish to wait and see for whatever reason.

    And the weakest buyers have been taken out of the market - those who only get mortgage approval in the good times etc. It will be cash buyers and those with rock solid incomes that remain.

    Sure supply might drop to match demand but if it does so we have a market that is dominated by weak sellers and strong buyers.

    Otherwise known as a buyers market, characterised by lower prices.


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    #2002
    Iceman29
    Site Banned Posts: 149 ✭✭Iceman29


    fliball123 wrote: »
    AIP would be an indicator of demand even if they dont get approval it means the person still wanted to buy

    I want to buy a helicopter but unfortunately I can't afford it


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    #2003
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    An Ri rua wrote: »
    That's not demand. That's dreaming.

    Ah in fairness its not if someone has physically gone through the trouble of identifying a property, going to see once maybe twice, gone through the bidding process, gone to the bank to ask about a mortgage, jumped through the hoops to get approval and then waiting for draw down and are told its not happening due to Covid, its hardly dreaming they have physically done a lot of things. they may of been dreaming of being married to a model and iiving on a huge yacht of the south coast of France but to say to want to own and live in your own place in Ireland is dreaming is a bit of a stretch.


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    #2004
    Iceman29
    Site Banned Posts: 149 ✭✭Iceman29


    JJJackal wrote: »
    Your job is at risk for certain; there is a slight nuance here though - your perfectly successful profitable business is shut down due to COVID (lets say a bar) - when and if COVID is over my business will be successful and profitable again and I will need workers - meanwhile the state pays them

    I don't think so. Pubs especially will probably never be the same again. Won't be making the same money again and jobs will defo be at risk


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    #2005
    Thierry12
    Closed Accounts Posts: 979 ✭✭✭Thierry12


    fliball123 wrote: »
    Ah in fairness its not if someone has physically gone through the trouble of identifying a property, going to see once maybe twice, gone through the bidding process, gone to the bank to ask about a mortgage, jumped through the hoops to get approval and then waiting for draw down and are told its not happening due to Covid, its hardly dreaming they have physically done a lot of things. they may of been dreaming of being married to a model and iiving on a huge yacht of the south coast of France but to say to want to own and live in your own place in Ireland is dreaming is a bit of a stretch.

    AIP can be done online in a few mins

    You can lie through your teeth to get it

    No one should be bidding with it


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    #2006
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    schmittel wrote: »
    The idea that if supply falls equally to match a fall in demand means that there is no net effect on price is ridiculous:

    The supply is falling because people who might otherwise have property on the market but who don't have to sell, or wish to hold out for a better price, or will wait and see, will decide not to sell.

    So basically less sellers who do not have to sell = drop in supply.

    Demand is falling because unemployment is rising, mortgage approvals are down, people are more cautious, uncertainty will cause them to wait and see.

    So basically less buyers who are the most sensitive to consumer confidence and strength of economy = drop in supply.

    Plenty on here, not just fliball, seem to think that this supply/demand drop will balance each other out and have no significant effect, and that some of us, like myself, are too thick to understand the concept of supply and demand.

    But have they considered that their logic consists of taking the strongest sellers out of the market? - i.e the properties that will be on the market will be forced sellers, and those who don't wish to wait and see for whatever reason.

    And the weakest buyers have been taken out of the market - those who only get mortgage approval in the good times etc. It will be cash buyers and those with rock solid incomes that remain.

    Sure supply might drop to match demand but if it does so we have a market that is dominated by weak sellers and strong buyers.

    Otherwise known as a buyers market, characterised by lower prices.


    Lets just be clear demand has to continue to drop to meet supply, the figures where put up for you and prices have not dropped yet. Do you not agree on what is widely regardless as rule one or Ecconomics 101 supply vs demand = price ? if supply falls it has an effect on price if demand falls it has an effect on price if they both fall which is what has happened over the last few months and falling pretty much at the same rate, then price does not change. But like I said if you dont believe me look at the stat that was put up about the price of property and even with less transactions going through there has been no price drop in property.

    We are 6 months in to the pandemic and there is phuck all proof of what your trying to spin. The stats are there to back up what I have been saying and what has actually happened.

    The other points are what if everything gets back on track , what if the Ruskies have a cure then people looking for a drop will be left waiting as once lads who are back off their corona payments they will be in the queue to get a property and driving demand again.


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    #2007
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,868 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    An Ri rua wrote: »
    He can't tell you when the radical State interventions will end but it's soon after that. Wake up.

    If I wake up will I be woke like you ?

    My advice to you and anyone else is focus on the verifiable evidence and leave the amateur economics .


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    #2008
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Thierry12 wrote: »
    AIP can be done online in a few mins

    You can lie through your teeth to get it

    No one should be bidding with it

    Any proof that I am lieing???? AND LETS BE CLEAR IF I HAVE NOT ADVISED ANYONE TO BUY OR SELL


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    #2009
    Iceman29
    Site Banned Posts: 149 ✭✭Iceman29


    Thierry12 wrote: »
    AIP can be done online in a few mins

    You can lie through your teeth to get it

    No one should be bidding with it

    100%


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    #2010
    MacronvFrugals
    Registered Users Posts: 1,016 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals


    fliball123 wrote: »
    Lets just be clear at the demand has to continue to drop to meet supply, the figures where put up for you and prices have not dropped yet. Do you not agree on what is widely regardless as rule one or Ecconomics 101 supply vs demand = price ? if supply falls it has an effect on price if demand falls it has an effect on price if they both fall which is what has happened over the last few months and falling pretty much at the same rate, then price does not change. But like I said if you dont believe me look at the stat that was put up about the price of property and even with less transactions going through there has been no price drop in property.

    We are 6 months in to the pandemic and there is phuck all proof of what your trying to spin. The stats are there to back up what I have been saying and what has actually happened.

    The other points are what if everything gets back on track , what if the Ruskies have a cure then people looking for a drop will be left waiting as once lads who are back off their corona payments they will be in the queue to get a property and driving demand again.


    I wouldn't put too much hope into the Russian vaccine considering one their head doctors resigned over reckless practices pushing the vaccine through testing too quickly.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8622761/Russias-doctor-quits-gross-violations-ethics-rushed-Covid-19-vaccine.html


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    #2011
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,868 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Thierry12 wrote: »
    AIP can be done online in a few mins

    You can lie through your teeth to get it

    No one should be bidding with it

    True but as a seller you would want to make sure your ea is filtering these people out as it’s a pain having a sale fall through .


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