Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Pelezico wrote: »

I am interested in houses in my area which are at 2017 prices.

I expect significant falls in the near future as banks withhold finance due to loans not performing.

Well good luck with that but your blanket statement that prices have dropped to 2017 levels is wrong and I have just proven you wrong. Where are you looking to buy and what proof have you that they are at 2017 levels?

dor843088

SteelyDanJalapeno wrote: »

I wish I was bidding against you

I wish you were bidding on my house. Any ea would pull your pants down.

fliball123 wrote: »

Well good luck with that but your blanket statement that prices have dropped to 2017 levels is wrong and I have just proven you wrong. Where are you looking to buy and what proof have you that they are at 2017 levels?

I am not sure what you have proved.

I just looked up a price fall on myhome a few minutes ago.

Ede*nmore Avenue...Raheny. looks like a loss to me.

Cyrus

Pelezico wrote: »

I am not sure what you have proved.

I just looked up a price fall on myhome a few minutes ago.

Edenmore Avenue...Raheny. looks like a loss to me.

A loss ? Are you still looking at asking prices as proof of something ?

What houses are at 2017 levels ? The only cohort that I’d think that’s valid for is 800k plus, houses in brackets below that continued to rise modestly from 17-20

Cyrus wrote: »

A loss ? Are you still looking at asking prices as proof of something ?

Sold for 275k in 2017...now reduced to 275k...stamp duty, buying and selling solicitors, and estate agents fees....yes looking at a loss.

No.23 went for 295k in 2019. So looks like a drop.

Cyrus

Pelezico wrote: »

Sold for 275k in 2017...now reduced to 275k...stamp duty, buying and selling solicitors, and estate agents fees....yes looking at a loss.

No.23 went for 295k in 2019. So looks like a drop.

They haven’t sold it yet ? A lot of properties are put on at lower prices to encourage bidding , an offer of 275k could well be refused .

Ursabear

I'm clearly no economist but I'm not sure about the conflicting reports about prices not dropping. Everything I read elsewhere says they have albeit only around 3 per cent https://www.daft.ie/report/ronan-lyons-housingmarketjune2020?fr=touch

Cyrus wrote: »

They haven’t sold it yet ? A lot of properties are put on at lower prices to encourage bidding , an offer of 275k could well be refused .

Whatever....reduced from 285k...hardly a ringing endorsement for your theory.

Ursabear

fliball123 wrote: »

oh you were not here for a bit the raw data is in and there are no price drops if Autumn is more of the same then prices may rise there was a blip in May and recovery in June and continued in July

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/

Sorry again not an economist but if you look at how far the volume of sales dropped on that graph for July would that not indicate there was a very small swathe of successful sales and those are probably the most in demand houses only , possibly new builds and would not actually be indicative of the prices really staying stable. I'm not a statistician but I think the volume needs to come into play in analysing what's going on.

[Deleted User]

Thierry12 wrote: »

No you can do it online in a few mins

Ulster Bank have it on a big banner with 15 mins, that 15 min is very generous more like 5 min

https://digital.ulsterbank.ie/personal/mortgages/mortgage-agreement-in-principle.html

But you cannot get approval to buy without being sale agreed on a specific property.
That's why there is aip.
How would anyone know how much they could bid if they didn't have aip?

LJ12345

Pelezico wrote: »

I am interested in houses in my area which are at 2017 prices.

I expect significant falls in the near future as banks withhold finance due to loans not performing.[/quote]

Read back over these pages around March/April/May. Those houses you mention were sold during lockdown by panicked ‘sale agreed’ sellers to buyers asking for a discount, the buyers got a bargain. That bargain no longer exists.

Ursabear wrote: »

Sorry again not an economist but if you look at how far the volume of sales dropped on that graph for July would that not indicate there was a very small swathe of successful sales and those are probably the most in demand houses only , possibly new builds and would not actually be indicative of the prices really staying stable. I'm not a statistician but I think the volume needs to come into play in analysing what's going on.

I would agree with you on the volume piece. I don’t think you can look at just 1 data point and come to a conclusion, although many geniuses on this thread do. I think there are a number of variance to consider - applications vs aip vs drawdown vs rejections, volume of units put up for sale new and 2nd hand, length of sales cycle, and on and on and on.

Browney7

fliball123 wrote: »

Well good luck with that but your blanket statement that prices have dropped to 2017 levels is wrong and I have just proven you wrong. Where are you looking to buy and what proof have you that they are at 2017 levels?

The CSO December 2017 figure for Dublin (the only statistics that count in my opinion due to standardisation methods etc) 121.1 and the figure for May 20 is 124.1 so it's incorrect to say 2017 levels. The highest level for Dublin prices in this period was 127.7 reached in October 2018. These three numbers show how stats can be spun to suit any and every agenda - the statements "prices are rising/falling" can be supported by published stats.

Prices tend to increase and decrease at a slow pace. It's interesting to actually see a jump the Dublin index stats in H1 2017 when the CBI changed the deposit rule to be a flat 10% instead of their previous rule where the 10% was up to a certain level and 20% thereafter along with the government launching the HTB. Dublin index went from 109 in January 17 (sales negotiated under rules) to 120.3 in October (sales negotiated under new rules) so a sudden intervention caused a high uptick with bidding wars and increasing the demand side.

As for looking at raw PPR data, again whilst useful, when sales volumes decrease to statistically insignificant levels, they can give unusual results. If more new builds are sold in a given month compared to previous averages can get skewed (there is research that there is a new build premium - help to buy, better more expensive materials etc).

Medians can skewed by bulk purchases by REITs/funds especially if total sales numbers are low but these have been flat the past few months.

Browney7

Hubertj wrote: »

Sorry again not an economist but if you look at how far the volume of sales dropped on that graph for July would that not indicate there was a very small swathe of successful sales and those are probably the most in demand houses only , possibly new builds and would not actually be indicative of the prices really staying stable. I'm not a statistician but I think the volume needs to come into play in analysing what's going on.

I would agree with you on the volume piece. I don’t think you can look at just 1 data point and come to a conclusion, although many geniuses on this thread do. I think there are a number of variance to consider - applications vs aip vs drawdown vs rejections, volume of units put up for sale new and 2nd hand, length of sales cycle, and on and on and on.

To be fair, there are "geniuses" on both sides of the debate.

Cyrus

Pelezico wrote: »

Whatever....reduced from 285k...hardly a ringing endorsement for your theory.

Ok you keep working off conjecture

And I’ve sold a couple of properties over the past few years and both were put on at lower prices than we were prepared to sell for .

But I’m sure you know it all as you have proven over the last week .

Anyway focusing on a specific house in a specific area is a nonsense it proves very little except related to that specific house .

Browney7 wrote: »

To be fair, there are "geniuses" on both sides of the debate.

ThTs what I mean! Your other post provided FACTS and DATA which are all that really matters...

K*lcross Grove.

Interesting reduction to 330000 which is marginally below 2019 price of 345000 but still well above 2015 price of 263000.

SteelyDanJalapeno

dor843088 wrote: »

I wish you were bidding on my house. Any ea would pull your pants down.

Fair enough

Pelezico wrote: »

K*lcross Grove.

Interesting reduction to 330000 which is marginally below 2019 price of 345000 but still well above 2015 price of 263000.

I wouldn’t live in kilcross if you paid me €345k.

Hubertj wrote: »

I wouldn’t live in kilcross if you paid me €345k.

I suppose you think it is overpriced then.

The market said 345k in 2019.

Pelezico wrote: »

I suppose you think it is overpriced then.

The market said 345k in 2019.

I don’t think anything of it because I would never consider living there.
Google kilcross and decide for yourself. Place has been a hole for over 20 years.

Reversal

fliball123 wrote: »

oh you were not here for a bit the raw data is in and there are no price drops if Autumn is more of the same then prices may rise there was a blip in May and recovery in June and continued in July

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/

But why is the data represented in this at odds with the residential property price index. The data on your link shows all time high prices every month this year. The CSO figures clearly show gradually falling prices since 2018.

I'll stick with the CSO figures as apposed to unverified stats often posted here by vest interests.

Pelezico wrote: »

I am not sure what you have proved.

I just looked up a price fall on myhome a few minutes ago.

Ede*nmore Avenue...Raheny. looks like a loss to me.

Look you can bring a horse to water but you cant make them drink, do you not see 2020 figures for July higher than at any point within the year of 2017. The Raw data is there if you choose not to look at it then there is no point talking to you but I will pull you up on lies spouting houses are back to 2017 levels and I will just include that link and anyone looking to buy or sell will be able to see the TRUTH for themselves

Reversal wrote: »

But why is the data represented in this at odds with the residential property price index. The data on your link shows all time high prices every month this year. The CSO figures clearly show gradually falling prices since 2018.

I'll stick with the CSO figures as apposed to unverified stats often posted here by vest interests.

It shows the Medan price not the all time high prices

Reversal wrote: »

But why is the data represented in this at odds with the residential property price index. The data on your link shows all time high prices every month this year. The CSO figures clearly show gradually falling prices since 2018.

I'll stick with the CSO figures as apposed to unverified stats often posted here by vest interests.

It shows the Medan price not the all time high prices and your not going to take the PPR as a valid verified stat on house prices as that is where the information is coming from?

fliball123 wrote: »

Look you can bring a horse to water but you cant make them drink, do you not see 2020 figures for July higher than at any point within the year of 2017. The Raw data is there if you choose not to look at it then there is no point talking to you but I will pull you up on lies spouting houses are back to 2017 levels and I will just include that link and anyone looking to buy or sell will be able to see the TRUTH for themselves

Like a previous poster said, the CSO numbers paint a different story with slight declines since 2018.

hometruths

Reversal wrote: »

But why is the data represented in this at odds with the residential property price index. The data on your link shows all time high prices every month this year. The CSO figures clearly show gradually falling prices since 2018.

I'll stick with the CSO figures as apposed to unverified stats often posted here by vest interests.

Some of the geniuses on here are not convinced by the accuracy of CSO data.

Pelezico wrote: »

Like a previous poster said, the CSO numbers paint a different story with slight declines since 2018.

The PPR is right up until the end of July CSO I belive is only up till May I could be wrong about that, there was a wobble in May but prices have bounced back up in June and July but like I say when people get the info they can start attacking where the info is coming from and then have the neck to start bringing in stats that are over 2 months out of date and burying their head in the sand. Its no skin of my nose if you don't want to hear the truth pal but like I say in July the median price was higher than any price for a monthly average in 2018.

JJJackal

Reversal wrote: »

But why is the data represented in this at odds with the residential property price index. The data on your link shows all time high prices every month this year. The CSO figures clearly show gradually falling prices since 2018.

I'll stick with the CSO figures as apposed to unverified stats often posted here by vest interests.

National:
In January 2018 the RPPI was 126.5; in May 2020 it was 134.1

Dublin:
In January 2018 the RPPI was 121.8; in May 2020 it was 124.1

National:
In January 2018 the RPPI was 131.3; in May 2020 it was 145

You can of course pick points that are the absolute peak which will show a decline. Looking at the graphs they look stable enough for 2 years