Atlantic Storm Watch: December 2013

91km/h gust reported at EICK in the last hour. ATC reported 55kts to RYR557H

It's a rotten day in cork. You wouldn't put a dog out in it. The basketball net out the parents back garden decided it wanted a closer look at the ground.

Should I skip a plan to hike the Sally Gap to Djouce Mountain in Wicklow tomorrow do you think?

Nice day in cork now.

Seriously strange manoeuvre by a Ryanair jet there!

12Z GFS has a 940mb low to our northwest on Wednesday/Thursday.

Need to keep an eye on it in case it tracks closer to us.

951F aborted landing too.

Strangegravy wrote: »

This is the one to watch I think, could still head further north but if not it'll be one hell of a wind storm hitting us...

Yes, it's one to keep an eye on for sure. Low probability but high risk if it turned out like this.

A squall line moving east?

Dodging a bullet today, the K4 buoy west of Donegal Bay (UK neighbour to M4) reports sustained winds of 48 knots but these very strong winds are heading north, however ... most guidance is converging on a severe wind storm on Wednesday evening, emanating from the tail of the current U.S. snowstorm which is (as of 06z) about 1000 mbs near the New Jersey coast. The portion of this system which will generate the Wednesday event is not yet in evidence but all the more reliable models develop it -- the GFS is currently most concerning with an extreme westerly gradient by 18z covering the northwest quadrant of Ireland. I don't want to be too alarmist as the GFS has a bit of a reputation for over-deepening but the depiction is only marginally different from the other models, which would support 45-50 knot sustained winds and 65-70 knot gusts (mainly from Galway Bay north but could be almost similar elsewhere). The GFS map at present would be more like 60 knots gusting to 100. As this event is now 84-90 hours out, we need to reboot this thread with a level 2 advisory for Wednesday night (what comes before and after looks no worse than what was seen yesterday, at this point). The GFS map would be pretty close to a level 3 which I don't recall having seen used here yet.

Well, let's hope this does not prove to be quite that intense, but I assume it will be all hands on deck as this becomes apparent to all during the morning.

Weathering wrote: »

Yeah Wednesday is looking pretty severe. I for one am hoping for a level 3. Is that selfish of me? ha

Nah, I'm in the same boat as you.
I love a good wind (as long as no one gets hurt). To feel the power and ferocity of nature is awsome.

06Z GFS showing gales along western coastal counties on Wednesday, storm force on northwest coasts. Winder than Saturday morning and this morning, but nothing exceptional for those areas at all on this model, the type of event you'd see a couple of times a year usually. Needs to be watched though as the potential for a more severe event is there due to the uncertainty that still remains, though we almost always see winds getting downgraded the closer you get to day 0.

Met Office UK already have a warning for Thursdays event. I don't think I've seen a warning out so early from them?

12Z GFS is more intense for the west coast on Wednesday than the 06Z run.

tylercollins wrote: »

I'm far from an expert but this looks like a very similar setup to boxing day 1998??

Boxin Day 1998


19th December 2013

It is notable that both have areas of high presure to the south.

I never trust the UKM GM to get the detail of a low. Often underestimates low intensities.

ECMWF would lead to damaging winds for western and northern parts of Ireland.

Gusts would easily exceed 130km/hr

We miss the crucial 84hr chart here. But when i get it on weather underground later it will not be nice viewing. Potential for a significant storm, which will need a new thread.

-If ECMWF occurred i would expect the highest level of warning from Met Eireann.

Weathercheck wrote: »

I never trust the UKM GM to get the detail of a low. Often underestimates low intensities.

I think the UKMO works on a lower resolution after 48hrs than ECM or others, hence the somewhat more over-simplistic, smoother look of their charts. Despite this, I would say the UKMO tends to handle explosive storm tracks better than other models overall. (just my opinion)