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25-04-2021, 07:42   #5986
M.T. Cranium
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Sunday, 25 April, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 25 April to 1 May 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal, although today will be a bit warmer than average.
-- Rainfall will average 10 to 20 per cent of normal values.
-- Sunshine will average 25 per cent above normal values. Winds will remain light until Tuesday then become more moderate in strength and mainly from a northeasterly direction (later backing northwest).


FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny, hazy and warm with the sea breezes perhaps a bit less of a factor at least on the east coast, highs will reach 17-20 C in many areas even fairly close to the coasts today. (could be held down to 15 C at the shore)

TONIGHT will continue clear with a bit of cloud at times in the north, lows -1 to +3 C.

MONDAY will see a gradual increase in cloud from north to south, followed by a few showers in Ulster by late in the day, but staying dry elsewhere. Highs 14-18 C.

TUESDAY will turn cooler with occasional showers, one or two a bit heavier and possibly thundery. Lows near 5 C and highs 12-15 C in north to northeast winds 30-50 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with isolated showers, cool, with moderate north to northeast winds at times, lows near 4 C and highs near 13 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue similar with partly cloudy to overcast skies, risk of isolated showers, and highs near 13 C after morning lows around 4 C. Any location that clears during these nights could see frost but it may be too cloudy for widespread frost to form.

This cold air mass will try to hold on next weekend but somewhat milder air from the southeast will replace it for a time, before a front passes around Sunday 2nd May, with rain at times, then another cool spell will follow with another gradual moderation of temperatures in the first week of May. That may be the last of these cool spells as there are signs of a larger scale pattern change coming along after that one.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast and foggy with light rain or drizzle and calm conditions but only around 8 degrees C. This is the first rain we've seen here since the spring-like weather arrived a week ago.
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26-04-2021, 07:20   #5987
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Monday, 26 April, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 26 April to 2 May 2021

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg below normal values, after being fairly close to normal today.
-- Rainfalls will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal as it appears that rain will finally begin to return to the weather picture, in showery form at first, then possibly more significant amounts by next weekend.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values, with a cloudier trend.
-- Wind speeds will pick up to more moderate values and could be a little stronger than that at times.


FORECASTS

TODAY will feature one last day of pleasant, warm sunshine fading by mid-day behind advancing high cloud in the north, but lasting to late afternoon across the south. Highs 17 to 20 C. A change in the wind direction to northwest will make the east coast warmer than most of this spell has been, while cooling the west coast somewhat.

TONIGHT will become mostly cloudy and there could be some light showers at times in northern counties, lows around 5 to 7 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast and cool with scattered showers, one or two of them thundery, but quite variable amounts of rain likely, most places about 2-5 mm, one or two could see 10-15 mm. Highs 12-15 C. Moderate north to northeast winds 30-50 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy and cool with isolated showers, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 11 to 14 C.

THURSDAY will be cloudy with a few breaks, and scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms, and cool with lows around 4 C and highs around 13 C.

FRIDAY will continue partly cloudy with isolated showers and cool, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 12 to 15 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy with a risk of showers and lows near 3 C, highs near 13 C.

SUNDAY may bring some more sustained rainfall, not entirely settled with some disparity in guidance, but low pressure trying to find a way through this blocking cold air may stall out near the southwest coast and the result could be bands of rain in rather chilly temperatures at least held down to low teens (and possibly even colder in places).

NEXT WEEK looks like cold air winning out for another several days so that temperatures will be stuck in this below normal pattern for a while longer, with rather cloudy skies, east to northeast winds, and occasional rain. The dry spell will probably come to a gradual end if all this verifies. There are signs of a pattern change towards warmer weather around the middle of May.

My local weather stayed cloudy and wet with temperatures near 8 C, and a bit of clearing towards late afternoon.
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27-04-2021, 07:20   #5988
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Tuesday, 27 April, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 27 Apr to 3 May 2021

-- Temperatures will average about 3 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average near normal or possibly slightly above if it rains significantly on Monday 3rd.
-- Sunshine will average only 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be noticeably cooler with a few showers, more frequent across Ulster and north Connacht, north Leinster and later parts of the midlands. Winds will turn more to the north at 30-50 km/hr, highs only reaching 11 to 14 C. About 2-5 mm rainfalls can be expected in most places, but a few thunderstorm cells could develop and give heavier amounts locally.

TONIGHT will stay partly to mostly cloudy and cool with a few more showers possible, lows 2 to 5 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy and cool with showers, moderate north to northeast winds 40-60 km/hr, highs only about 10 to 14 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy with showers and chance of a local thunderstorm, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 10 to 14 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast and cool with isolated showers, lows near 2 C and highs 12 to 15 C.

SATURDAY will also be rather cloudy with a few sunny breaks, lows near 3 C and highs near 13 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY there may be some locally significant rainfalls especially in parts of the south as low pressure develops to the west of Ireland but fails to move this colder air mass, so that the interaction will lead to low cloud, rain and drizzle, possibly amounts of 10-20 mm or more. Temperatures will be quite chilly if this low develops as expected, with no sunshine to warm the air, readings of 8 to 10 C could remain in place, but if the situation is less developed then temperatures would likely get into the 12-14 C range which is perhaps more likely in the north anyway further from the frontal zone.

Then it looks like this battle of air masses will continue for a while, with no really clear indication of when it will end (which it is going to do sooner or later) so that warmer air masses can push in from the southwest. It could take a week or two of occasional frontal systems and rainfalls with depressed temperatures for a while into May.

My local weather on Monday was partly to mostly cloudy but stayed dry, and temperatures were still on the cool side at around 10 C.
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28-04-2021, 07:04   #5989
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Wednesday, 28 April, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



More of a blog format today just for a change of pace.

The rather cool and somewhat unsettled new regime will continue for quite some time. Today will be rather cloudy in the east and parts of Munster, with occasional showers possible. There will be more mixed sky conditions in the west and north, but not without isolated showers there too. Highs generally about 13 C. Rather breezy with winds northeast 30-50 km/hr.

Tonight will become partly cloudy with lows in the 2 to 5 C range, but one or two places could slip a bit lower and have a touch of ground frost by early morning.

Thursday will become more unsettled again with fairly widespread showers and the chance of a few heavier thunderstorms, all moving quite slowly and somewhat randomly although there will be a tendency for northeast to southwest drift of any showers. Rainfall amounts could be 5-10 mm in some places, or even more locally. This will begin to ease the dry conditions that have prevailed in many areas all month but relief from that (if in fact you are seeking relief) will be gradual. Highs on Thursday will reach 12 to 14 C.

Friday will be a somewhat better day with a bright start but eventually a significant cloud cover by mid-day with isolated showers. The wind gradient is never very strong this week but by Friday it almost disappears, so that winds across the country will be quite light and variable in direction. Lows near 2 C and highs near 13 C.

Saturday is likely to be partly cloudy with isolated showers and still on the cool side, lows near 2 C and highs 12 to 15 C.

By Sunday there will be increasing cloud and the threat of some light rain by evening and the overnight hours into Monday, with temperatures in the range of 7 to 13 C.

Monday could see some more prolonged rainfalls in the 10-20 mm range as a weak but persistent low tracks across the country from the northwest. Although the track of this low has lifted further north on guidance today, compared to yesterday's estimates, there won't be much difference to the impact other than perhaps to spread the rain a bit more widely across all regions.

Next week does not look any warmer as the Atlantic, while starting to show some vigour, is largely confined to moving its frontal systems across the Bay of Biscay into France and then Germany, with the cooler air well entrenched over Ireland and Britain. This will keep temperatures a bit below normal values all week (2-8 May) and will also likely lead to occasional rainfalls.

There are some very cold looking patterns generated by computer models later in the week with a good draw on higher latitudes bringing down chilly maritime arctic air masses that could be several degrees below normal temperatures for May, more like 9-10 C than the usual 15-16 C. I would still expect there to be a warming trend at some point in May. This April has been rather rare, it looks as though it will quite possibly turn out colder than March. I don't have a long historical data base available to check that out for Ireland, but over in Britain, where there is such a data base going back almost four centuries, only sixteen Aprils failed to add to the mean temperature of March, out of 362 in the series, so it's about four per cent of Aprils that show this odd result. There has never been a series of March, April, May where all three were colder than the preceding, but May can be cooler than April again in rare numbers of cases. This year with such a cool April I think even a continuation of the pattern would have to add at least 2 degrees to the outcome. In reality it may be more like 3-4. But even that could leave May a bit below its average values.

My local weather is also on the chilly side, we had cloudy skies with a few breaks and a rather chilly breeze even though from the south, with temperatures perhaps about 11 or 12 C.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 28-04-2021 at 07:40.
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29-04-2021, 07:20   #5990
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Thursday, 29 April, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 29 April to 5 May 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 3 to 4 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal values, heaviest around Monday and again towards end of the interval.
-- Sunshine will average only about 50 per cent of normal values -- this is generally the sunniest portion of the year in many parts of the country with 5 to 6 hours sunshine daily, but this coming week, three will be a realistic target.


FORECASTS

TODAY will start out partly cloudy, any morning sunshine is likely to fade behind gradually spreading shower clouds, as scattered showers make their way gradually south and west, with one or two turning locally heavy with hail and thunder possible. Very cool for late April, highs only 9 to 13 C.

TONIGHT will see a return to partly cloudy and mainly dry conditions with scattered light frosts developing, lows -2 to +3 C.

FRIDAY will be almost a repeat of today with a gradual increase in cloud, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, and cool temperatures, with light winds, the showers may not move along very fast once they develop over any given location, so some locally heavy downpours are possible. Highs 9 to 13 C.

SATURDAY will be a less unsettled but still quite cool day with light winds, some sunshine at times, isolated showers and after lows -2 to +3 C, highs near 12 C.

SUNDAY will become more cloudy during the mid-day and afternoon hours, leading to rain by late in the day. Lows near -1 C and highs near 11 C.

MONDAY looks rather dismal at this point with a well-organized low pushing in from the west, bringing some intervals of heavy rain and strong southeast winds, later turning westerly as the low tracks past central Ireland around mid-day. Rainfalls of 15-30 mm appear possible, temperatures will be held down by the cloud and rain to around 9-12 C.

OUTLOOK ... some improvements on Tuesday but staying rather cool, then another frontal boundary rainfall event around mid-week with similar outcomes to the first one (Monday), then another cycle of dry and unsettled beyond that although perhaps with warmer air slowly becoming part of the mixture of air masses. Some more average May weather conditions appear possible by the middle to end of the second week of the month.

My local weather on Wednesday was mostly cloudy but a bit warmer, with temperatures near 14 C locally, up to around 21 C in lower elevations around the region. This has led to quite a contrast in conditions, in the nearby Columbia valley trees are almost at full spring foliation now, while up in the higher country to our north and west, snow is still covering the ground. In our case we have just a slow partial spring developing with the snow mostly gone from the town, replaced by bears it would seem, we actually saw three of them today on a short trip, near the edge of town crossing the main highway, which led to both directions coming to a halt to let them across (it was apparently a mother and her two cubs but fairly well along so they must have been born last autumn and hibernated too). Anyway, there's something I'll bet you won't see but everything else about our weather and reduced social life under lockdown here seems about the same (bears hadn't heard about the requirements).
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30-04-2021, 07:40   #5991
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Friday, 30 April, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 30 Apr to 6 May 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 3 to 4 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal values.
-- Sunshine will average 50 per cent of normal values. Winds, rather light at first, will increase late in the weekend and on Monday to strong at times, then will average moderate speeds for the rest of next week.


FORECASTS

TODAY will start out bright and unseasonably cool with just isolated showers in the south, but more widespread showers will develop by mid-day and some across the south may become heavy locally with hail and thunder. Rainfall amounts generally 1-3 mm but locally 5-10 mm. Highs only 10 to 13 C.

TONIGHT will see partial clearing again with local frosts and lows -2 to +3 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy with a few showers, cool with highs only 11 to 14 C.

SUNDAY will start out partly cloudy with some sunny intervals at first, then increasing cloud, lows -2 to +3 C and highs 11 to 14 C.

MONDAY will bring intervals of rain and strong southeast winds veering to southwest by afternoon and strong westerly by evening. About 10-20 mm rainfall expected, temperatures steady in the range of 10 to 13 C. Winds in the 40-70 km/hr range may increase to 70-110 km/hr by late in the day, with strongest gusts around the Atlantic coasts.

TUESDAY will remain windy and quite cool with squally showers, some with hail or thunder, winds west to northwest 70 to 110 km/hr, and highs near 11 C.

WEDNESDAY will be very cool with occasional showers, some with hail mixed in, and temperatures around 9 C.

This very cool spell will gradually moderate through the following weekend but that will lead to further rainfalls and highs of about 14 C. The week following will be somewhat warmer at times with occasional rainfall, highs reaching values closer to normal (13-15 C).

My local weather was overcast but bright with the sun getting through a dense veil of high cloud, and quite warm with highs into the 20-24 C range around the region. No more bear sightings, just coyotes and a lot of soaring eagles and hawks this time.
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01-05-2021, 07:42   #5992
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Saturday, 1 May, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 1 to 7 May 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 3 to 5 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 75 per cent above normal.
-- Sunshine will average about half of normal values. It will become very windy at times.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers becoming more widespread by mid-day. Once again, one or two of these could be locally heavy with hail and thunder. Highs 11 to 14 C.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy with clear intervals, and frosty in some locations, lows -2 to +3 C.

SUNDAY will bring increasing cloud and outbreaks of rain becoming widespread by late in the day. Chilly with highs only 9 to 13 C.

MONDAY will be windy and cool with an interval of heavy rain (10-20 mm) followed by very windy conditions, partial clearing but squally showers developing in westerly winds of 70 to 110 km/hr. Strongest gusts late afternoon and evening near Atlantic coasts. Morning lows near 5 C and afternoon highs only 9 to 12 C.

TUESDAY will continue windy until mid to late afternoon with some moderation by then, as bands of squally showers continue, some with hail and thunder. Winds northwest to north 60 to 90 km/hr before the moderating trend. Lows near 3 C and highs only 7 to 12 C (coldest in Ulster, north Connacht, north Leinster).

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will continue unseasonably cold for early May and there could even be mixed wintry showers over higher parts of the north at times, while all regions will be subject to squally hail showers and some thunder. Highs both days only 7 to 12 C and morning lows -1 to +3 C. Winds northerly 40 to 70 km/hr with some lower speeds inland at night.

FRIDAY may see a brief slight improvement to partly cloudy skies and highs near 14 C, then the weekend of May 8-9 looks very wet and windy as another strong low develops and moves through the south. Temperatures may remain rather cold with this.

The week of 10-14 May looks cold at first with a gradual return to more seasonable temperatures and there could in fact be some warmer weather eventually by the middle of the month.

My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy and rather warm again with highs around 18 to 22 C around the region.
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02-05-2021, 06:59   #5993
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Sunday, 2 May, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 2 to 8 May, 2021

-- Temperatures will average 3 to 5 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal values.
-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal, and winds will become much stronger than they have been in the past two weeks (very strong at times Monday into Tuesday).


FORECASTS

TODAY will bring an early mixture of cloud and sunshine, and relatively dry conditions in most places, would suggest making the most of it as by later afternoon cloud and some sporadic rain will develop, with increasing winds from the southeast, highs 12 to 14 C.

TONIGHT will become windy with intervals of rain and some fog especially over higher parts of the north where it could produce very poor visibility at times. Winds will continue to increase from the southeast, veering to southwest in parts of Munster towards morning. Temperatures will be steady 4 to 7 C. Rainfalls of about 10 mm expected.

MONDAY will continue wet and windy with the winds veering gradually around to a westerly direction, becoming very strong especially from Galway Bay south to Kerry, and later along the south coast. Speeds of 70 to 110 km/hr are possible. Temperatures will peak at only around 13 C in the south, 9 or 10 C north, and will be falling slowly by late afternoon with passing squally showers with hail and thunder possible. There could be some brighter spells in the strong winds too. A further 10 or 15 mm of rain is likely.

TUESDAY the storm will be slowly moderating but the morning could remain very windy especially in coastal areas of the west, and wherever a northwest wind is channelled by the terrain (at least 60 to 90 km/hr in exposed areas). It will remain unseasonably cool with passing squally showers, and the risk of wintry showers on northern hills. Lows around 3 C and highs 7 to 12 C (coldest in Ulster).

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will continue unseasonably cool with passing showers, some of which could turn wintry at times in Ulster, Connacht and parts of north Leinster, as well as higher terrain further south. Winds will not be as strong, northwest to north 40 to 70 km/hr, but they will add a chill to this outbreak. Highs both days only 7 to 12 C with morning lows around -1 C possible. There is some chance of a sleety cold rain with snow on hilltops pushing into parts of the south around Wednesday night into Thursday, and this will turn winds there more to an easterly direction, but the partly cloudy, showery regime is likely to be unbroken further north.

By FRIDAY into SATURDAY, a second Atlantic storm may directly affect the weather in Ireland, although some guidance takes this low just far enough south to be more of a problem for northwest France and southern England. There's a risk of a persistent cold rain in northeast winds, again with some potential for wet snow to mix in or fall on hills. Temperatures will be very cool for this time of year, possibly only around 6 or 7 C in some places; the further north one goes, it may actually become a bit milder just because of the sun getting through the overcast more often away from this southern storm track.

By SUNDAY next weekend this particular disturbance should be moving away but leaving a cold northerly flow with showers and temperatures still quite cold (8-10 C).

The following week looks a bit warmer in stages, as the colder air mass will moderate over Ireland and Britain but there will still be passing frontal systems bringing some rain and temperatures will only come back up a few degrees into the 13-15 C range.

My local weather on Saturday was sunny with cloudy intervals, quite breezy at times, with highs near 16 C. We are having a rapid onset of spring blooming locally (it was pretty much complete in the nearby valley two weeks ago) and snow has now retreated up the local hills to about 1800 metres above sea level, well above our elevation.
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03-05-2021, 07:59   #5994
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Monday, 3 May, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 3 to 9 May 2021

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfalls will average near normal to 25 per cent above normal (this is not a change by the way, some of the expected rain for the last interval fell overnight already).
-- Sunshine will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal values. Strong winds will peak later today and after that, generally moderate wind speeds can be expected most days.


FORECASTS

TODAY will bring some changeable and in some cases stormy weather, as showers and a few isolated thunderstorms move through the midlands into Leinster by mid-day, followed by a surge of strong westerly winds that will impact the west coast before noon lasting into the evening hours. With the low centre tracking southeast towards Mayo and then east through north Connacht into south Ulster later today, some areas in the vicinity of this track will experience a lull in wind speeds when the low centre is nearby due to a slack gradient there, but expect strong northwest winds to follow that. Further south, there won't be much of a break between several bands of strong winds in the 70 to 110 km/hr range, with a slow turning of wind direction from southwest to northwest. Galway Bay could see some elevated tidal levels at high tides and other exposed locations could have some overtopping and battering wave damage. These strong winds will tend to rush through central counties into the Dublin region by late afternoon and early evening. Temperatures will be steady in the range of 11 to 14 C before slowly falling later today except that north Ulster will stay in cooler air most of the day with strong east winds at times there. Rainfall will be largely confined to the east and the immediate vicinity of the low centre with 10-20 mm amounts possible, but isolated showers will develop in the evening strong northwest wind flow. With all of those changing details, some brighter intervals are likely especially near the south coast.

There is some chance of a squall line feature developing with today's active weather, if so it would be approaching Dublin around noon to 1 p.m. and moving through the southeast around 1 to 2 p.m. Watch for any discussion of that in the dedicated storm thread.

TONIGHT will remain quite windy especially near Atlantic coasts and over the Irish Sea with gusts to 120 km/hr in places. Passing showers could become rather squally and temperatures will slowly fall to around 5 C by morning.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with bands of squally showers in a northwest wind of 50-80 km/hr. Rather cold with highs only 7 to 9 C in the north, 10 to 13 C in the south.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with isolated showers in many areas but more active bands of showers with some potential for mixed wintry falls over higher terrain in Ulster and north Connacht. Lows near -2 C inland could bring scattered frosts. Highs 7 to 10 C in many areas, 10 to 13 C in parts of the south. Winds northwest 40 to 70 km/hr at times but not as windy as previous days.

THURSDAY has some uncertainty regarding the outcome of a frontal band of rain extending near but not necessarily all the way to the south coast, but most of the country will be staying in the same general regime with partly cloudy to overcast skies, chilly temperatures near 10 C after scattered morning frosts, and isolated showers. If rain does move in that probably won't affect many places away from the south coast.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will come under the influence of another Atlantic low which is tracking in from the southwest, bringing rain and moderate southeast to south winds and slightly milder temperatures for a while, perhaps 12 to 15 degrees in the southeast, although tending to stay colder in the northwest where winds could be more northeasterly. Rainfalls of 10 to 30 mm are possible in this interval, but there is uncertainty in regards to details.

From about SUNDAY to TUESDAY 11th, another cold spell seems likely in a northerly flow behind the low just mentioned, and it will be quite variable sky conditions with scattered showers likely, temperatures not far from 10 C.

Somewhat warmer conditions are likely to develop after that with a faint promise of actual spring warmth by about the third week of May.

My local weather was pleasant on Sunday with sunny skies, rather breezy and around 16 C.
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04-05-2021, 07:12   #5995
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Tuesday, 4 May, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 4 to 10 May 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average near normal, possibly a bit above in some parts of the south.
-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values. Wind speeds will return to more moderate levels soon.


FORECASTS

TODAY will remain quite windy at times, with northwest to north winds of 50 to 80 km/hr. Bands of showers are likely to affect parts of the north and west mainly, more isolated or weaker remnants for south and east. Some showers could contain a bit of hail with brief thunder. Cool with highs around 7 to 10 C north, 10 to 13 C south.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy with just isolated showers although some risk of wintry showers over higher parts of the north. Sharp frosts could develop in central counties. Lows -3 to +2 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will continue partly cloudy, breezy and cold with scattered showers, one or two with hail and some risk of isolated wintry showers over higher terrain. Winds not as strong, northerly 30-50 km/hr at times. Lows both days -3 to +2 C, and highs 8 to 12 C.

FRIDAY will be cloudy with a few sunny breaks, and scattered outbreaks of light rain, more prevalent in the south. Winds will turn somewhat more easterly and could be moderate near the south coast. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs about 10 C.

SATURDAY has an uncertain outcome, some guidance brings in milder air and allows rain to spread quickly north with some clearing to follow, but other guidance gives the colder air a greater chance of holding this development back and shunting any successful warming further east into southern Britain. If that is the case, it could rain most of the day in Ireland and temperatures would only creep up to about 12 C in the south and east, staying closer to 9 or 10 C in the west and north. I think the actual result is a toss-up or "even chances" at this point.

SUNDAY ... the forecast uncertainty reaches a second phase here, if the milder air does manage to win out on Saturday, it might hang around in the south and east for much of Sunday with overcast skies and some outbreaks of rain, temperatures 11 to 14 C. If the colder and wetter solution works out on Saturday, rain will continue for a time on Sunday with temperatures steady around 10 or 11 C, then somewhat colder air would follow on moderate northerly winds.

MONDAY and TUESDAY of next week appear quite cold in any case with northerly breezes and isolated showers, frosts each morning with lows -3 to +2 C, highs only 8 to 13 C.

Around mid-week Ireland will be under a rather disorganized sprawling high pressure area that could maintain quite cold overnight temperatures at frost levels, but at the same time with light winds and some sunshine, the days might become a bit more typical of mid-May (12-15 C).

From then on, a rather chaotic pattern with a slight easterly tendency emerges, which could bring a mixed bag of nice days, overcast and wet days, and temperatures oscillating in the 13 to 19 C range, so at least quite a bit more seasonable for mid-May.

My local weather on Monday was cloudy with some sunny breaks, and rather cool with isolated showers nearby, although no rain fell at my location. Highs were around 14 C.
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05-05-2021, 07:23   #5996
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Wednesday, May 5, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 5 to 11 May, 2021

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 3 deg below normal values, somewhat milder around Saturday.
-- Rainfalls will average near normal values, most of the rain expected will be around Sunday-Monday.
-- Suinshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal, winds will be generally moderate.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy in most regions, somewhat more overcast in the north where more frequent showers are likely, and some of those could turn wintry on higher terrain. Elsewhere showers will likely be mostly rain with some hail and the risk of thunder. Amounts for most will be slight, 1-3 mm. Quite cool for early May, highs 7 to 10 C in the north, and 10 to 13 C in the south.

TONIGHT will continue partly cloudy to overcast with isolated showers, and scattered frosts where skies clear for any length of time, lows -2 to +2 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy with showers, cool and breezy (northerly 40-60 km/hr), highs 7 to 12 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with only a few isolated showers, and longer sunny breaks for some, lows -3 to +2 C and highs 10 to 13 C. Rain will spread into the southwest by late afternoon or evening.

SATURDAY will turn somewhat milder in the southeast, with occasional rain and variable cloud cover, highs reaching about 14 C there. The west and north will remain overcast with outbreaks of rain developing, 5 to 10 mm likely, and highs 12 or 13 C.

SUNDAY will see similar conditions but rain will be more persistent and will slowly spread further east, 10 to 20 mm could fall especially in west Munster and Connacht. Highs 11 to 13 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will probably see a gradual cooling trend, the speed with which temperatures fall depends on whether the weekend low spins around a couple of times or keeps plodding along to the northeast, if it does the latter then cooler air can begin to spread back in from the north a little faster. Temperatures will be down at least a degree or two each day, and could be back to the current levels by Tuesday. Some showers are likely in north to northeast winds.

Around mid-week high pressure will build up and this could lead to sharp frosts at night with clearing skies, but days should be tolerable with the light winds and highs around 12 to 15 C. The guidance is a bit scattered on how fast this high breaks down and there could be several dry days or possibly a return to rain by about Friday into Saturday. The longer term looks rather variable with temperatures on either side of normal at times, but always with the threat of one more significant cold spell developing.

My local weather on Tuesday was partly cloudy to overcast, cool, with spots of rain and even a few soft hail pellets mixed in, although amounts were slight. The highs for the day were about the same as there, near 10 C.
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06-05-2021, 08:09   #5997
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Thursday, 6 May, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 6 to 12 May 2021

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal (close to average on the weekend).
-- Rainfalls will average near normal values, possibly 25 per cent above in parts of the west, with Sunday and Monday expected to bring most of that (into Tuesday east).
-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal, and winds will be moderate most of the time.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy and quite cool with isolated showers, some with hail and thunder, and snow is possible on northern hills. Highs 7 to 10 C north, 10 to 13 C south. Moderate northerly winds will increase around mid-day, to 40-60 km/hr.

TONIGHT will bring another sharp frost (it was -4 at Mountdillon at 0600h this morning), where skies clear, and lows will be -4 to +2 C.

FRIDAY will bring some sunny intervals with increasing cloud, chance of rain in west Munster by evening. Highs around 11 to 14 C.

SATURDAY will see some light rain in parts of the west and variable cloudiness elsewhere, somewhat milder with lows around 6 C and highs 12 to 16 C.

SUNDAY the rain will slowly edge further east but some parts of Leinster and east Ulster could remain dry for at least the morning, 10 to 20 mm rainfall amounts expected over parts of west Munster and Connacht, highs around 14 C in the east and 12 C west.

MONDAY the low pressure tracks slowly into the midlands but weakens, so that rain will become more showery as it spreads further east, another 5 to 10 mm likely, highs 12 to 15 C.

TUESDAY some parts of the east could still remain in somewhat milder air for a while as colder air tries to work back around the slow-moving low into western counties, so that temperatures will likely be near 9 C in the northwest to near 13 C southeast, with mostly cloudy skies and light north to northeast winds, some drizzly light rain.

By mid-week, higher pressure will be slowly pushing in, but this next colder spell looks a bit less potent now and it may be mostly a case of renewed frost risks with daytime highs staying a little milder than this current spell, at about 12-14 C which is still several degrees below mid-May (by then) normals of 15-16 C. The warmer trend will return after a slight pause and it could be quite pleasantly warm by the third week of the month.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny and a bit warmer than recent days with a high near 18 C. Our spring blooming is now at almost final stage locally, and local hilltops now just have patchy snow cover although the higher peaks beyond them remain covered (that's getting up around 2300 metres).
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07-05-2021, 07:48   #5998
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Friday, 7 May, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 7 to 13 May 2021 --

-- Temperatures will be 1 to 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will be near normal to 25 per cent above normal in parts of the west and south.
-- Sunshine will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal values. Winds will be generally moderate.


FORECASTS


TODAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals, and only a few isolated showers mainly in northern counties. Becoming overcast by late afternoon in west Munster. Highs 11 to 14 C.

TONIGHT will become cloudy with outbreaks of rain spreading into the south and west, 10 to 20 mm likely. Winds increasing to southeast 40 to 60 km/hr, stronger gusts at times in west Munster. Lows 6 to 9 C.

SATURDAY will bring some further outbreaks of rain, then a dry interval is likely to spread into parts of the southern and central counties with a few brighter intervals, warmer than in recent days, highs 14 to 17 C. Some further rain is likely near Atlantic coasts and in north Connacht and parts of Ulster with highs 12 to 15 C there. The moderate southerly breezes will tend to die off gradually by evening.

SUNDAY will have variable amounts of cloud and frequent showers or intervals of rain, another 10 to 15 mm rain is expected. Still rather mild with temperatures steady in the range of 11 to 14 C. Some intervals of moderate southeast winds near south coast and exposed higher terrain.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with showers, a few isolated thunderstorms and risk of hail, light winds as the low, while now almost over the centre of the country, weakens to a very slack gradient. Temperatures steady in the range of 10 to 13 C. Further rainfalls of 5-10 mm likely.

TUESDAY will turn a bit colder as winds start to turn more to the northeast, occasional showers or intervals of light rain, 3-7 mm on average, and temperatures steady 8 to 11 C.

From that point on, the unsettled weather will very gradually improve but only partial clearing is likely, which will prevent frosts from being very widespread as had been anticipated when higher pressure was expected to push in, now it looks like a rather slack gradient will continue but the full effects of the colder air mass will only be seen further north to northwest, however, it should be cautioned that we can't entirely rule out a return to the more significant cold pattern as this guidance is only moderately reliable with things grinding to a halt in terms of steering currents and large-scale ridges and troughs. The most likely longer term outcome is probably somewhat warmer than average weather for a while by the third week of May.

My local weather was bright despite a lot of higher cloud, and it was very warm, with a high near 24 C locally and closer to 29 C in nearby valleys. It felt a bit like summer for the first time this year.
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08-05-2021, 07:30   #5999
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Saturday, 8 May, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 8 to 14 May, 2021

-- Temperatures will average near normal values as a blend of rather warm conditions today, then near average for several days and a bit cooler than average around mid-week.
-- Rainfall will now be around 50 to 75 per cent of normal as the first wave of expected rain has moved through overnight.
-- Sunshine will be 75 per cent of normal, but there could be generous amounts today and perhaps locally on other days despite widespread cloud cover as low pressure slowly dies out over the country from Sunday to mid-week. Winds have peaked for the period already and will sometimes be in the light to moderate category.


FORECASTS

TODAY most of the rain expected has moved through, although it continues to pour in Ulster and that may continue to late morning. Some scattered outbreaks of showery light rain could return later to parts of Connacht and west Ulster, but otherwise, expect some partial clearing and much warmer temperatures than recently, highs 17 to 20 C are possible through inland southern and central counties, closer to 14 C near coasts. Winds southeast to south at about 50 to 70 km/hr at times should begin to moderate gradually by afternoon.

TONIGHT will remain partly cloudy in some areas with overcast skies making some progress east and eventually some light rain is likely near Atlantic coasts, mild with lows near 10 C.

SUNDAY will start out partly cloudy to overcast but dry in some parts, then scattered showers will gradually edge in from the west and the south coast, but not all locations will see any rain, amounts generally about 3-7 mm. Highs will be 13 to 15 C.

MONDAY will be showery with the possibility of some heavier bursts of rain locally in the inland southeast and near the Wicklow mountains. Lows near 8 C and highs 12 to 14 C. Risk of thunderstorms in central and eastern counties.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with occasional rain, a bit cooler with lows near 6 C and highs 11 to 13 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with occasional rain, lows near 5 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

The outlook is for this almost stationary dying low to make a few more erratic loops mainly towards the south exposing more of the north and then central counties to some influences of higher pressure also stationary to the north of Scotland. There would be light to moderate east winds in the north as a result, more variable breezes further south, and quite extensive cloud banks breaking at times to partly cloudy skies, with just slight rainfalls and near average temperatures, anywhere with a few hours of sunshine could warm to 15-17 C but otherwise 13-15 C will be most likely. The week following may be more pleasant, with high pressure a bit more dominant, and some days fairly warm, but the pattern will remain rather disorganized and steering currents weak, which can lead to one day being fine then the next quite cloudy, without much change in the overall pattern.

My local weather turned quite a bit cooler on Friday, after a cold front with thunderstorms drifted through in the early morning hours, followed by variable cloud and passing showers that appeared to be dropping snow on higher peaks around the region. Highs were only about 12 C well down from yesterday's mid-20s.

Enjoy the change in the weather.
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09-05-2021, 07:41   #6000
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Sunday, 9 May, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 9 to 15 May 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, rather small range expected between daytime highs and overnight lows.
-- Rainfall will be near normal in parts of the central and inland southeast counties, to 25 per cent below average in the north and parts of the southwest.
-- Sunshine will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal, and winds will drop back into the light to moderate range.


FORECASTS


TODAY will be rather breezy at times with intervals of cloud and sunshine, more cloud over western counties with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts 5-10 mm, but 2-5 mm in parts of Leinster especially near the east coast. Highs 12 to 15 C.

TONIGHT will continue mostly cloudy with a few showers, 2-5 mm rainfall. Lows 7 to 9 C.

MONDAY will be cloudy with a few breaks, and showers will turn heavy in some central counties with isolated thunderstorms. Some heavy downpours are expected by afternoon in the inland southeast also. Highs 12 to 15 C. Rainfalls of 5 to 15 mm possible.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms, heavier in the inland southeast than most other areas. Lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C. Rainfalls of 5 to 10 mm likely.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy with showers less widespread, rainfalls only 2 to 5 mm on average. Lows near 6 C and highs near 14 C.

THURSDAY will become overcast and some light rain is likely starting from the northern counties in the morning and spreading further south, with cooler temperatures as the weak disturbance advances, temperatures near 13 C in the south and 10 C north.

FRIDAY will see some dry intervals and sunny breaks with a cooler overnight low of 1 to 4 C, daytime highs 11 to 15 degrees.

OUTLOOK ... Weather systems have slowed to a crawl but a more normal westerly flow is expected to kick in around next weekend, with a frontal system scheduled to bring some rain around Saturday, timing in these situations can easily change by a day or more though -- this rainfall will be accompanied by temperatures around 15 C. The week to follow looks changeable and near normal in temperatures.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast with a few breaks, after some early morning showers, and it has stayed rather cool with highs around 14 C.
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