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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

24567…42

Comments

  • #52
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,073 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1295787105118048263?s=20

    https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1295811147107631112?s=20


  • #53
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,351 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    pad199207 wrote: »
    ‪Earlier on today aparantly a woman rang the bbc and said she heard a hurricane was on the way...‬

    Hope michael fish didn't answer.


  • #54
    whisky_galore
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,517 ✭✭✭✭whisky_galore


    Oh fk you 2020.
    When is the locust plague due?


  • #55
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,351 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    leahyl wrote: »
    Seems pretty quiet on here despite this apparent huge windstorm coming our way!

    Well 2020 itself has been a bit of ****storm anyway and honestly I burnt out whereas normally I'd be all over this.


  • #56
    thecretinhop
    Registered Users Posts: 6,666 ✭✭✭thecretinhop


    in a weird way something 2 take our minds of covid.
    pure fkable though putting stuff in sheds again


  • #57
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,351 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Sorry lads so is this a Wednesday evening/Thursday morning job with the storm and from what meteorite58 is saying that unsettled Thursday and Friday on the back end of the big storm. Do I have that generally right ? Btw thanks for the savants in here who make sense of the charts I'm just not great at it.


  • #58
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,073 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    With rain run off and big seas coastal flooding probably going to be a problem.


    anim_tdi7.gif

    nww3uk-0-66_dpg4.png

    https://www.tidetimes.org.uk/cork-city-tide-times-20200821


    ctc4dy8.png


  • #59
    John mac
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,131 ✭✭✭John mac


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    Sorry lads so is this a Wednesday evening/Thursday morning job with the storm and from what meteorite58 is saying that unsettled Thursday and Friday on the back end of the big storm. Do I have that generally right ? Btw thanks for the savants in here who make sense of the charts I'm just not great at it.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=114347872&postcount=40


    https://www.met.ie/warnings


  • #60
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    I'll believe it if I see it. Let us keep in mind that over the course of last winter and spring, the ECM in particular always overegged wind speeds during 'explosive storm' potential and not by an insignificant degree.

    New Moon



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  • #61
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,693 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    Not a hope is there going to be 200km/h gusts. Max I am going to say is 110 at the coasts.


  • #62
    spookwoman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,972 ✭✭✭spookwoman


    Never know until it happens


  • #63
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,693 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    spookwoman wrote: »
    Never know until it happens

    True! But just from previous storms and looking at how they turned out vs the models, and the fact that the ICON and GCM seem to be showing different then I can't see it being that strong. It could be 150 easily though at the same time!

    Regardless, tie everything down!!


  • #64
    spookwoman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,972 ✭✭✭spookwoman


    SleetAndSnow wrote: »
    True! But just from previous storms and looking at how they turned out vs the models, and the fact that the ICON and GCM seem to be showing different then I can't see it being that strong. It could be 150 easily though at the same time!

    Regardless, tie everything down!!

    Agreed some serious off the mark forecasting on previous occasions. I'll be bringing in the gas cooker just in case. Can't do without the coffee


  • #65
    irishrover99
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,033 ✭✭✭irishrover99


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    Guys this is unreal and come out of nowhere!!
    The conditions shown by some models warrant a red for sure in the South

    Anytime you see 100km wind or 5cm of snow you say red warning. You must work for joe.ie?


  • #66
    irishrover99
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,033 ✭✭✭irishrover99


    pad199207 wrote: »
    ‪Earlier on today aparantly a woman rang the bbc and said she heard a hurricane was on the way...‬

    Probably a boards subscriber


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  • #67
    sdanseo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,234 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    irishrover99 wrote: »
    Anytime you see 100km wind or 5cm of snow you say red warning. You must work for joe.ie?

    He didn't say there would certainly be a red warning, like me he said that there would be IF the conditions shown on the charts verified.

    A literal interpretation of the charts does not a sensationalist make. No different to a single run being on crack doesn't mean there's going to be another Ice Age.

    I caveat any of my more sensational sounding posts for the same reason, though it shouldn't be necessary.


  • #68
    irishrover99
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,033 ✭✭✭irishrover99


    sdanseo wrote: »
    He didn't say there would be a red warning, like me he said that there would be IF the conditions shown on the charts verified.
    A literal interpretation of the charts does not a sensationalist make.
    I caveat any of my more sensational sounding posts for the same reason, though it shouldn't be necessary.

    Take a look at his/her comment history on every time the weather gets bad. It always includes a red warning mention. This is also not the first time I have mentioned this.


  • #69
    gally74
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,997 ✭✭✭gally74


    That was a fair account on rte, could we go to red ... maybe


  • #70
    sdanseo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,234 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    irishrover99 wrote: »
    Take a look at his/her comment history on every time the weather gets bad. It always includes a red warning mention. This is also not the first time I have mentioned this.

    Well aware, but it's generally linked to a chart or a situation that depicts red warning conditions.

    The conversation should be about how the shíte charts never materialise, not how someone consistently interprets them correctly!

    I realise the skill in forecasting is about the combination of matching literal interpretation of charts against probability and historical data. But it's still not incorrect to read a chart that shows 100kt winds and say "oh look, there'll be 100kt winds if that happens".


  • #71
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,651 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    It's a weird one alright.

    Is it the ex hurricane that's providing the energy?
    I see stingjet mentioned, reminds me of Darwin.


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  • #72
    KingdomRushed
    Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    Had a look through all the models, quite a few scenarios showing. None of the high res models are showing 150 k winds really. The cyclone looks quite defined on some and rather messy on others. Would say that east cork, Waterford would appear to take the hardest winds on balance on the models. Quite fascinating stuff for August. Would be quite the shock to staycation people in caravans and what not if they do not take it seriously


  • #73
    SeaBreezes
    Registered Users Posts: 1,525 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    SleetAndSnow wrote: »
    Not a hope is there going to be 200km/h gusts. Max I am going to say is 110 at the coasts.

    Its 2020. Anything is possible.


  • #74
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,073 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ICON still not developing the initial storm like the other models but does go on to get very windy on Thurs


    anim_syl4.gif

    anim_rqm2.gif


  • #75
    leahyl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,322 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Anyone notice that the met warning doesn’t actually mention any wind speeds...it’s just an orange warning...strange


  • #76
    pad199207
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,221 ✭✭✭pad199207


    leahyl wrote: »
    Anyone notice that the met warning doesn’t actually mention any wind speeds...it’s just an orange warning...strange

    Glasnevin being careful, a lot of chopping and changing. I’d say 130kmh+ gusts plus along SW fringes may be achievable


  • #77
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,186 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    leahyl wrote: »
    Anyone notice that the met warning doesn’t actually mention any wind speeds...it’s just an orange warning...strange

    Still a lot of uncertainty. Not the usual storm path either but it’s 2020 so expect the worst!


  • #78
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,073 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    leahyl wrote: »
    Anyone notice that the met warning doesn’t actually mention any wind speeds...it’s just an orange warning...strange

    Just too much uncertainty yet I reckon, Siobhan Ryan did mention that it could be high impact, potential there for something out of the ordinary especially it being in the Summer.


  • #79
    taytobreath
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,792 ✭✭✭taytobreath


    Will this storm be a flooding event or a wind event?


  • #80
    leahyl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,322 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    taytobreath wrote: »
    Will this storm be a flooding event or a wind event?

    Both I’d say!


  • #81
    Shadylou
    Registered Users Posts: 252 ✭✭Shadylou


    taytobreath wrote: »
    Will this storm be a flooding event or a wind event?

    I'd imagine non event


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  • #82
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,180 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Ireland has a vaccine.

    Storm Ellen blew the fckon virus to Timbuc Too.


  • #83
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,651 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Thewife wrote: »
    Is she no longer on boards ?? I’ve been thinking about her for months wondering if she is ok with all this covid but can’t seem to find her here to send a message . Does anyone know if she is ok ? Sorry for being off topic

    I am in touch with her.
    She is keeping well.


  • #84
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,180 ✭✭✭pauldry


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    I am in touch with her.
    She is keeping well.

    Thank God

    Maybe thread should be called Level 2 Storm Ellen with embedded conversation about Grace


  • #85
    Doctors room ghost
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,825 ✭✭✭Doctors room ghost


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    I am in touch with her.
    She is keeping well.




    Tell her we were asking for her and we wish her well.


  • #86
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,981 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    The gfs is also saying no so we have 2 models not developing anything.
    Tough one to call but theven gfs is consistently saying no thanks


  • #87
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,651 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Doctors room ghost wrote: »
    Tell her we were asking for her and we wish her well.

    I certainly will do.
    Thanks for your concern.


  • #88
    Jpmarn
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,484 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Storm Ellen is a merging of an Atlantic depression and the remnants of Tropical Storm Kyle. I wouldn’t be too surprised if the warnings are upgraded to status red.


  • #89
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,981 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Gfs still interested in giving us something severe in the South but a day later!
    Hard to be confident about anything.
    A forecasters nightmare!
    Saying that stockpiling for a 24hour event doesn't carry much punch these days after the covid story


  • #90
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    ICON and GFS not onboard.

    12z GEM, UKMO, ECMWF, ARPEGE going for something nasty.


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  • #91
    leahyl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,322 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Sleety_Rain wrote: »
    ICON and GFS not onboard.

    12z GEM, UKMO, ECMWF, ARPEGE going for something nasty.

    Well, surely the majority rules?!


  • #92
    Thelonious Monk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,478 ✭✭✭✭Thelonious Monk


    it's 19c in Dublin now and no wind at all, very strange. Is this the calm before the storm you hear about?


  • #93
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,589 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Had a look back and Kyle dissipated early 16th north of Bermuda. The low then showing up on CMC analysis seems to be its remnant low. That is now north of the Azores and was analyzed at 1003 mb at 18z.

    Current satellite imagery:

    https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_sigwx_1070_100.jpg

    (note this will update in real time for later readers)

    The proto-Ellen former Kyle feature is the wave northeast of the Azores. Tonight's advancing frontal systems and heavy rain potential is embedded in the cloud masses now closer to Ireland.

    I guess the million euro question is which model solution to follow, the ignore-Ellen and keep developing the primary, or the total transfer of most energy to Ellen that is implied in ECM and some other Euro-models.

    Water temperatures certainly quite toasty in Biscay (21-23 C).

    Would expect 00z model runs to come into much closer agreement. Morning forecasts should be more reliable than anything now available.

    For the record, NHC shows no potential development in the Biscay region although its map for showing that cuts off west of where Ellen might be intensifying anyway. All previous named storms (of the N Atl tropical family, that is) to affect Ireland formed near or west of Azores and NHC ignores "medicanes" so I'm not sure if they would, in theory, track and name anything that formed in Biscay that had tropical or subtropical features. No reason why not, I suppose, we could call this a Bis-cane or perhaps a Celti-cane. (if it happens)


  • #94
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 5,311 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Thelonious Monk wrote: »
    it's 19c in Dublin now and no wind at all, very strange. Is this the calm before the storm you hear about?

    Very strange that the system is hundreds of miles away and the gusts haven't arrived ahead of schedule.


  • #95
    Thelonious Monk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,478 ✭✭✭✭Thelonious Monk


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Very strange that the system is hundreds of miles away and the gusts haven't arrived ahead of schedule.

    Very strange to me that it's this warm out at this hour with no wind at night. No need for the sarcasm.


  • #96
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,651 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Either way, it's certainly an interesting turn after the many weeks of grey boredom that we had not so long ago.


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  • #97
    mojesius
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,362 ✭✭✭mojesius


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    Either way, it's certainly an interesting turn after the many weeks of grey boredom that we had not so long ago.

    Maybe it'll blow all the grey ****e away for a few weeks.


  • #98
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,589 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    GFS takes the storm in question much further east into southwest England and only develops it about 30% as intense as some European models. If correct it would have little impact in Ireland and leave the main weather event the deepening wave along the primary front further north (to approach southwest Ireland late Thursday).

    Perhaps a compromise of all guidance would move a moderately intense low into the Irish Sea and bring heavy rains to the southeast. That is about what happened to the storm I recall from August a few years ago.

    I don't have any strong hunches about this. The upper level steering flow is not showing its hand either way, and the current dynamics of "Ellen" (or former Kyle) are modest. Would say high impact event is something like 40-50 per cent possible.


  • #99
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,537 ✭✭✭typhoony


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    GFS takes the storm in question much further east into southwest England and only develops it about 30% as intense as some European models. If correct it would have little impact in Ireland and leave the main weather event the deepening wave along the primary front further north (to approach southwest Ireland late Thursday).

    Perhaps a compromise of all guidance would move a moderately intense low into the Irish Sea and bring heavy rains to the southeast. That is about what happened to the storm I recall from August a few years ago.

    I don't have any strong hunches about this. The upper level steering flow is not showing its hand either way, and the current dynamics of "Ellen" (or former Kyle) are modest. Would say high impact event is something like 40-50 per cent possible.

    gfs sticking to it's guns with for the majority a non-event


  • #100
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,651 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    This all seems so uncertain.


  • #101
    Dank Janniels
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 668 ✭✭✭Dank Janniels


    Will the hairdressers be open?


    Sorry wrong thread


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