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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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[Deleted User]

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

it's 19c in Dublin now and no wind at all, very strange. Is this the calm before the storm you hear about?

Very strange that the system is hundreds of miles away and the gusts haven't arrived ahead of schedule.

M.T. Cranium

Had a look back and Kyle dissipated early 16th north of Bermuda. The low then showing up on CMC analysis seems to be its remnant low. That is now north of the Azores and was analyzed at 1003 mb at 18z.

Current satellite imagery:

https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_sigwx_1070_100.jpg

(note this will update in real time for later readers)

The proto-Ellen former Kyle feature is the wave northeast of the Azores. Tonight's advancing frontal systems and heavy rain potential is embedded in the cloud masses now closer to Ireland.

I guess the million euro question is which model solution to follow, the ignore-Ellen and keep developing the primary, or the total transfer of most energy to Ellen that is implied in ECM and some other Euro-models.

Water temperatures certainly quite toasty in Biscay (21-23 C).

Would expect 00z model runs to come into much closer agreement. Morning forecasts should be more reliable than anything now available.

For the record, NHC shows no potential development in the Biscay region although its map for showing that cuts off west of where Ellen might be intensifying anyway. All previous named storms (of the N Atl tropical family, that is) to affect Ireland formed near or west of Azores and NHC ignores "medicanes" so I'm not sure if they would, in theory, track and name anything that formed in Biscay that had tropical or subtropical features. No reason why not, I suppose, we could call this a Bis-cane or perhaps a Celti-cane. (if it happens)

Thelonious Monk

it's 19c in Dublin now and no wind at all, very strange. Is this the calm before the storm you hear about?

leahyl

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

ICON and GFS not onboard.

12z GEM, UKMO, ECMWF, ARPEGE going for something nasty.

Well, surely the majority rules?!

ninebeanrows

ICON and GFS not onboard.

12z GEM, UKMO, ECMWF, ARPEGE going for something nasty.

JanuarySnowstor

Gfs still interested in giving us something severe in the South but a day later!
Hard to be confident about anything.
A forecasters nightmare!
Saying that stockpiling for a 24hour event doesn't carry much punch these days after the covid story

Jpmarn

Storm Ellen is a merging of an Atlantic depression and the remnants of Tropical Storm Kyle. I wouldn’t be too surprised if the warnings are upgraded to status red.

igCorcaigh

Doctors room ghost wrote: »

Tell her we were asking for her and we wish her well.

I certainly will do.
Thanks for your concern.

JanuarySnowstor

The gfs is also saying no so we have 2 models not developing anything.
Tough one to call but theven gfs is consistently saying no thanks

Doctors room ghost

igCorcaigh wrote: »

I am in touch with her.
She is keeping well.

Tell her we were asking for her and we wish her well.

pauldry

igCorcaigh wrote: »

I am in touch with her.
She is keeping well.

Thank God

Maybe thread should be called Level 2 Storm Ellen with embedded conversation about Grace

igCorcaigh

Thewife wrote: »

Is she no longer on boards ?? I’ve been thinking about her for months wondering if she is ok with all this covid but can’t seem to find her here to send a message . Does anyone know if she is ok ? Sorry for being off topic

I am in touch with her.
She is keeping well.

pauldry

Ireland has a vaccine.

Storm Ellen blew the fckon virus to Timbuc Too.

Shadylou

taytobreath wrote: »

Will this storm be a flooding event or a wind event?

I'd imagine non event

leahyl

taytobreath wrote: »

Will this storm be a flooding event or a wind event?

Both I’d say!

taytobreath

Will this storm be a flooding event or a wind event?

Meteorite58

leahyl wrote: »

Anyone notice that the met warning doesn’t actually mention any wind speeds...it’s just an orange warning...strange

Just too much uncertainty yet I reckon, Siobhan Ryan did mention that it could be high impact, potential there for something out of the ordinary especially it being in the Summer.

munsterlegend

leahyl wrote: »

Anyone notice that the met warning doesn’t actually mention any wind speeds...it’s just an orange warning...strange

Still a lot of uncertainty. Not the usual storm path either but it’s 2020 so expect the worst!

pad199207

leahyl wrote: »

Anyone notice that the met warning doesn’t actually mention any wind speeds...it’s just an orange warning...strange

Glasnevin being careful, a lot of chopping and changing. I’d say 130kmh+ gusts plus along SW fringes may be achievable

leahyl

Anyone notice that the met warning doesn’t actually mention any wind speeds...it’s just an orange warning...strange

Meteorite58

ICON still not developing the initial storm like the other models but does go on to get very windy on Thurs

SeaBreezes

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Not a hope is there going to be 200km/h gusts. Max I am going to say is 110 at the coasts.

Its 2020. Anything is possible.

KingdomRushed

Had a look through all the models, quite a few scenarios showing. None of the high res models are showing 150 k winds really. The cyclone looks quite defined on some and rather messy on others. Would say that east cork, Waterford would appear to take the hardest winds on balance on the models. Quite fascinating stuff for August. Would be quite the shock to staycation people in caravans and what not if they do not take it seriously

igCorcaigh

It's a weird one alright.

Is it the ex hurricane that's providing the energy?
I see stingjet mentioned, reminds me of Darwin.

sdanseo

irishrover99 wrote: »

Take a look at his/her comment history on every time the weather gets bad. It always includes a red warning mention. This is also not the first time I have mentioned this.

Well aware, but it's generally linked to a chart or a situation that depicts red warning conditions.

The conversation should be about how the shíte charts never materialise, not how someone consistently interprets them correctly!

I realise the skill in forecasting is about the combination of matching literal interpretation of charts against probability and historical data. But it's still not incorrect to read a chart that shows 100kt winds and say "oh look, there'll be 100kt winds if that happens".

gally74

That was a fair account on rte, could we go to red ... maybe

irishrover99

sdanseo wrote: »

He didn't say there would be a red warning, like me he said that there would be IF the conditions shown on the charts verified.
A literal interpretation of the charts does not a sensationalist make.
I caveat any of my more sensational sounding posts for the same reason, though it shouldn't be necessary.

Take a look at his/her comment history on every time the weather gets bad. It always includes a red warning mention. This is also not the first time I have mentioned this.

sdanseo

irishrover99 wrote: »

Anytime you see 100km wind or 5cm of snow you say red warning. You must work for joe.ie?

He didn't say there would certainly be a red warning, like me he said that there would be IF the conditions shown on the charts verified.

A literal interpretation of the charts does not a sensationalist make. No different to a single run being on crack doesn't mean there's going to be another Ice Age.

I caveat any of my more sensational sounding posts for the same reason, though it shouldn't be necessary.

irishrover99

pad199207 wrote: »

‪Earlier on today aparantly a woman rang the bbc and said she heard a hurricane was on the way...‬

Probably a boards subscriber

irishrover99

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Guys this is unreal and come out of nowhere!!
The conditions shown by some models warrant a red for sure in the South

Anytime you see 100km wind or 5cm of snow you say red warning. You must work for joe.ie?