nav[aria-label="Primary Navigation"] { padding: 0; & ul { list-style: none; width: 100%; display: flex; flex-direction: row; justify-content: start; align-items: start; gap: 30px; padding: 0; & li { margin: 0; } & ul li { list-style: none; } } }

Child Item

Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

Find more posts tagged with

Quick Links

Comments

Thelonious Monk

it's 19c in Dublin now and no wind at all, very strange. Is this the calm before the storm you hear about?

M.T. Cranium

Had a look back and Kyle dissipated early 16th north of Bermuda. The low then showing up on CMC analysis seems to be its remnant low. That is now north of the Azores and was analyzed at 1003 mb at 18z.

Current satellite imagery:

https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_sigwx_1070_100.jpg

(note this will update in real time for later readers)

The proto-Ellen former Kyle feature is the wave northeast of the Azores. Tonight's advancing frontal systems and heavy rain potential is embedded in the cloud masses now closer to Ireland.

I guess the million euro question is which model solution to follow, the ignore-Ellen and keep developing the primary, or the total transfer of most energy to Ellen that is implied in ECM and some other Euro-models.

Water temperatures certainly quite toasty in Biscay (21-23 C).

Would expect 00z model runs to come into much closer agreement. Morning forecasts should be more reliable than anything now available.

For the record, NHC shows no potential development in the Biscay region although its map for showing that cuts off west of where Ellen might be intensifying anyway. All previous named storms (of the N Atl tropical family, that is) to affect Ireland formed near or west of Azores and NHC ignores "medicanes" so I'm not sure if they would, in theory, track and name anything that formed in Biscay that had tropical or subtropical features. No reason why not, I suppose, we could call this a Bis-cane or perhaps a Celti-cane. (if it happens)

[Deleted User]

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

it's 19c in Dublin now and no wind at all, very strange. Is this the calm before the storm you hear about?

Very strange that the system is hundreds of miles away and the gusts haven't arrived ahead of schedule.

Thelonious Monk

Deleted User wrote: »

Very strange that the system is hundreds of miles away and the gusts haven't arrived ahead of schedule.

Very strange to me that it's this warm out at this hour with no wind at night. No need for the sarcasm.

igCorcaigh

Either way, it's certainly an interesting turn after the many weeks of grey boredom that we had not so long ago.

mojesius

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Either way, it's certainly an interesting turn after the many weeks of grey boredom that we had not so long ago.

Maybe it'll blow all the grey ****e away for a few weeks.

M.T. Cranium

GFS takes the storm in question much further east into southwest England and only develops it about 30% as intense as some European models. If correct it would have little impact in Ireland and leave the main weather event the deepening wave along the primary front further north (to approach southwest Ireland late Thursday).

Perhaps a compromise of all guidance would move a moderately intense low into the Irish Sea and bring heavy rains to the southeast. That is about what happened to the storm I recall from August a few years ago.

I don't have any strong hunches about this. The upper level steering flow is not showing its hand either way, and the current dynamics of "Ellen" (or former Kyle) are modest. Would say high impact event is something like 40-50 per cent possible.

typhoony

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

GFS takes the storm in question much further east into southwest England and only develops it about 30% as intense as some European models. If correct it would have little impact in Ireland and leave the main weather event the deepening wave along the primary front further north (to approach southwest Ireland late Thursday).

Perhaps a compromise of all guidance would move a moderately intense low into the Irish Sea and bring heavy rains to the southeast. That is about what happened to the storm I recall from August a few years ago.

I don't have any strong hunches about this. The upper level steering flow is not showing its hand either way, and the current dynamics of "Ellen" (or former Kyle) are modest. Would say high impact event is something like 40-50 per cent possible.

gfs sticking to it's guns with for the majority a non-event

igCorcaigh

This all seems so uncertain.

Dank Janniels

Will the hairdressers be open?

Sorry wrong thread

irishrover99

KingdomRushed wrote: »

. Would be quite the shock to staycation people in caravans and what not if they do not take it seriously

True story. I was in a mobile home during storm Darwin although I knew f all about it been forecasted as named storms were really only a new thing back then. Talk about a rollercoaster of a night.

BringBackMick

Dank Janniels wrote: »

Will the hairdressers be open?

Sorry wrong thread

You looking for a wash and blow?

Keplar240B

This is the end of my sunflowers.

smallgarden

irishrover99 wrote: »

True story. I was in a mobile home during storm Darwin although I knew f all about it been forecasted as named storms were really only a new thing back then. Talk about a rollercoaster of a night.

I wouldn't fancy being in a tent tomorrow night

beggars_bush

Camping in a storm? could be IN-TENTS...

I'll get my rain coat.

Dancewithme

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

GFS takes the storm in question much further east into southwest England and only develops it about 30% as intense as some European models. If correct it would have little impact in Ireland and leave the main weather event the deepening wave along the primary front further north (to approach southwest Ireland late Thursday).

Perhaps a compromise of all guidance would move a moderately intense low into the Irish Sea and bring heavy rains to the southeast. That is about what happened to the storm I recall from August a few years ago.

I don't have any strong hunches about this. The upper level steering flow is not showing its hand either way, and the current dynamics of "Ellen" (or former Kyle) are modest. Would say high impact event is something like 40-50 per cent possible.

We are absolutely fecked so.

nthclare

smallgarden wrote: »

I wouldn't fancy being in a tent tomorrow night

If this is blowing offshore, maybe whomever is camping along that stretch between Lisdoonvarna and Fanore should pack up and leave.

Because if a heavy gust catches some of those tents they'll be rolled over the cliff's in Ballyreen.
Straight into the brinny.

Larbre34

Keplar240B wrote: »

This is the end of my sunflowers.

You're probably right, so harvest them tomorrow, put them in water and give them to some people who they might cheer up. There's a bit of life in them yet!

greasepalm

Omg The homeless out in the bad weather.

Thewife

Oh that’s so great to hear ðŸ™ðŸ» I’ve been worried about her so I’m delighted to see she was on her blog . Would you happen to remember the web address for the blog please ?

taytobreath wrote: »

I checked her profile a few weeks ago and she has a link to a blog that was updated the day before I checked her profile, so she's still active but not on boards.

On topic....Will this storm be a flooding event or a wind event?

Thewife

This is so amazing to hear thank you so much for letting me know . Please pass on my regards to her and tell her I’ve been wondering about her and if she was ok ðŸ˜Š

igCorcaigh wrote: »

I am in touch with her.
She is keeping well.

piplip87

A storm of this potential in August imagine if there was no COVID. Imagine the amount if my flight is leaving dublin at 5PM will it be windy posts

[Deleted User]

Thewife wrote: »

Oh that’s so great to hear ðŸ™ðŸ» I’ve been worried about her so I’m delighted to see she was on her blog . Would you happen to remember the web address for the blog please ?

Here you go

https://islandanchorhold.blogspot.com/?m=1

Meteorite58

AROME 18Z Hi Res just rolling out,similar track to its last run but much stronger winds on approach on this run.

Heavy intense rainfall in places.

irishrover99

piplip87 wrote: »

A storm of this potential in August imagine if there was no COVID. Imagine the amount if my flight is leaving dublin at 5PM will it be windy posts

Maybe that will be replaced with, “will the storm blow Covid away”

forestgirl

igCorcaigh wrote: »

This all seems so uncertain.

Pass on my regards to graces please,I really miss her posts so much and I miss hearing about the weather on her island,thank you

SleetAndSnow

Usually these storms do tend to go further west then forecast don't they? Which is leaning me towards the ECM, UKMO type track rather then the AROME etc and it seems even Met Eireann is using the ECM track Vs their harmonie one which has the strongest winds further east it seems.

Thelonious Monk

A storm blew away 25% of my roof last night.
Oof

Oscar Bravo

Latest forecast from met eireann on Rte radio 1 now

Pangea

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Usually these storms do tend to go further west then forecast don't they? Which is leaning me towards the ECM, UKMO type track rather then the AROME etc and it seems even Met Eireann is using the ECM track Vs their harmonie one which has the strongest winds further east it seems.

They usually end up paying Donegal Bay a visit