Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

JanuarySnowstor

Where's my apology?? Lol

pnpweirdo

RobertKK wrote: »

Yep, I mean Kilkenny went red warning during Darwin, when all hell was breaking lose, it was too late but warranted.

I know they have to be really sure before issuing red.

Same as limerick city. When it was too late. Serious destruction. It was like a freight train outside the house

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Where's my apology?? Lol

A stopped clock! You were on about rain anyway lol

kilkenny31

RobertKK wrote: »

Yep, I mean Kilkenny went red warning during Darwin, when all hell was breaking lose, it was too late but warranted.

I know they have to be really sure before issuing red.

I remember that day. I was in college in WIT they closed the college in the middle of the storm so everybody was sent home. At least this storm comes at a time when schools etc are closed and its late in the evening/night so most people should be at home. Darwin could have been a disaster for Kilkenny/Waterford.

mumo3

m17 wrote: »

Storm Ellen out in the Atlantic

Which site are you using to watch it?

m17

Wales this morning

spookwoman

11 utc looking impressive

Comhrá

Siobhan sporting a nice red jacket there on the RTE One o'clock News just now, to emphasise the red warning?

irishrover99

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Where's my apology?? Lol

Haha. I bet your strutting around doing that Conor McGregor walk now.

m17

mumo3 wrote: »

Which site are you using to watch it?

Eumetsat

grebtol2

markjbloggs wrote: »

As sure as night follows day, when a major storm approaches - Shannon radar goes down with "technical faults".

What's the real reason?

Meteorite58

ECM 06Z out, similar to HARMONIE, strongest winds coming ashore between Cork and Waterford showing 160 to 170 km/h and 120 to 130 km/ h overland moving straight up through the country.

More counties in Orange level, Waterford could be Red yet.

Deepening on approach 969hPa and filling slowly inland as it exits the country.

Very heavy rain in the SW, up to 50mm in 24 hrs

m17

endainoz

leahyl wrote: »

Lol you’re a howl, every post of yours always has the worst weather for Cork

That aged well

hawkwing

Comhra wrote: »

Siobhan sporting a nice red jacket there on the RTE One o'clock News just now, to emphasise the red warning?

I thought she was emphasising something else :eek:

leahyl

endainoz wrote: »

That aged well

He’s actually right this time!!!

leahyl

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Where's my apology?? Lol

Lmao, I’m sorry, you’re finally right!

Oneiric 3

For what it's worth, this is what the UK Met have for strongest gusts at Cork Apt and Waterford Apt:

Waterford Airport - 53 knots between 1am and 3am
Cork Airport - 46 knots around midnight.

The UK Met model tends to a conservative one regarding wind speed and gust potential, but often not far off the mark either. We'll see.

Edit: Cork Apt should read '48 knots'.

froog

ICON and GFS using ventusky seem very far apart. which one is more reliable?

HeidiHeidi

Bejubby wrote: »

Here Grace,go to locations and pick the nearest to you,then scroll down.
www.tidetimes.org.uk

Or if you have a smart phone, I have an app Tide Times, which is super easy to use and has tide locations all over the country, and you can save your favourites for even easier access. Give tide times/heights, and also moon information.

HeidiHeidi

HeidiHeidi wrote: »

Or if you have a smart phone, I have an app Tide Times, which is super easy to use and has tide locations all over the country, and you can save your favourites for even easier access. Give tide times/heights, and also moon information.

Here's today's tides for an island in Clew Bay

highdef

m17 wrote: »

Storm Ellen out in the Atlantic

Just to note, the big swirl in the mid-Atlantic is not Ellen....that's the parent low. Ellen is only beginning to become visible as it starts development west of Biscay. It will become more evident in a few hours when cyclogenesis becomes apparent.

Gruffalux

m17 wrote: »

Mourne mountains this morning

That is a gorgeous photo. Sorry now but Im breaking all copyright rules - too late.... I have saved it to my phone!!

froog

froog wrote: »

ICON and GFS using ventusky seem very far apart. which one is more reliable?

How are Icon and GFS so far away from the other models at only 12 hours. Are they generally this unreliable? I would have thought there would be a tendency to converge as we get closer

HeidiHeidi

m17 wrote: »

Wales this morning

Jesus, that's taking the "shepherd's warning" to extremes :eek:

bnt

Euro4 short range model suggests that it's going to get a bit hairy over the SW and irish Sea early Friday morning:

SweetCaliber

Am I missing something or does it look like Waterford is going to get hit worse than Cork looking at the latest charts?

SEPT 23 1989

m17 wrote: »

Wales this morning

Dublin was the same

munsterlegend

SweetCaliber wrote: »

Am I missing something or does it look like Waterford is going to get hit worse than Cork looking at the latest charts?

Might be updated later. Still a lot of uncertainty.

spookwoman

https://twitter.com/WaterfordCounci/status/1296065070309478400?s=20

SweetCaliber

munsterlegend wrote: »

Might be updated later. Still a lot of uncertainty.

Yeah, just got notification that they are closing the prom in Tramore from 4pm today until further notice. Will be a wild one regardless with high tide.

The Irish Ace

How is the east looking throughout this? Looks like Meath and North Dublin might get hit on the edge of them gusts of wind.

Gaoth Laidir

I would warn people about possible coastal flooding in northern Dublin Bay and also Salthill during the night. Don't be parking cars along the seafront in either place as onshore winds will coincide with peak tides at both locations. A strong southeasterly can cause seiche flows in Dublin Bay, and we all know about what happens in Salthill.

Gaoth Laidir

12Z analysis, showing Ellen 990 hPa northwest of the Galicia coast.

SouthWesterly

Can we open a book on what time and windspeed we'll have at the salthill diving board and people in for a dip?

Edit. And of course the cars flooded in the car park

munsterlegend

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

12Z analysis, showing Ellen 990 hPa northwest of the Galicia

GL what are met Éireann seeing in the models that makes it red for Cork? Are they just ignoring the GFS/ICON?

cherryghost

Would bet on Waterford upgrading to red, maybe NW taken off Orange, possibly Wexford red. Moving more easterly across most charts

froog

cork actually looks very tame on both ICON and GFS now. not sure where this red is coming from.

RubyK

SweetCaliber wrote: »

Yeah, just got notification that they are closing the prom in Tramore from 4pm today until further notice. Will be a wild one regardless with high tide.

Hope there are no tents camped on the back strand like last week, they won't last long!! :eek:

Gaoth Laidir

munsterlegend wrote: »

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

12Z analysis, showing Ellen 990 hPa northwest of the Galicia

GL what are met Éireann seeing in the models that makes it red for Cork? Are they just ignoring the GFS/ICON?

This. Up to Force 12 just off the coast, according to their latest Harmonie run. They don't use the GFS.

SleetAndSnow

Not sure what model M.E is using now , looks to be ECM? Most models now show the east as orange

SweetCaliber

RubyK wrote: »

Hope there are no tents camped on the back strand like last week, they won't last long!! :eek:

I've a feeling the circus vegas tent will be in my back garden in the morning, it has no sides on it so hopefully they put them on tonight :D

RubyK

SweetCaliber wrote: »

I've a feeling the circus vegas tent will be in my back garden in the morning, it has no sides on it so hopefully they put them on tonight :D

I forgot about the Circus being there too!!

endainoz

I'm kinda seeing it as not a massive issue on the Clare coast as its moving further east, seems to be a lot of uncertainty all the same. Still due to lack of flights in the air to collect weather data?

With all that said, I do live near the coast and there has been a huge exodus of campervans from the village today. Glad it's being taken relatively seriously, not cool having your campervan turned over.

Oneiric 3

Probability maps for 1am tonight from the latest European.

Gusts greater than 48 knots:




And for gusts > 64 knots:

Little snowy old me

Is Dublin likely to go Orange? We have a socailly distanced group sunset walk planned in the local park at 9pm. Lots of trees and big branches there. Im thinking of canceling but so many mixed messages.

SleetAndSnow

Well down at my house on the west cork coast now, will keep you all updated later on tonight I suppose haha. Expectations have dropped but since the coast is exposed might be a interesting night too! Very calm here atm though and very humid, not misting like the city.

Sawduck

Will tipperary be bad tonight, I have to travel from north to South tipp, I remember travelling during one of the storms last year and trees were falling on the road it was a nightmare, don't really want a repeat of that

munsterlegend

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

munsterlegend wrote: »

This. Up to Force 12 just off the coast, according to their latest Harmonie run. They don't use the GFS.

listermint

Little snowy old me wrote: »

Is Dublin likely to go Orange? We have a socailly distanced group sunset walk planned in the local park at 9pm. Lots of trees and big branches there. Im thinking of canceling but so many mixed messages.

Sunset walk in this weather...... Yeah. Erm..