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FI CHARTS AUTUMN/WINTER 2014/15 **Mod Note Post #1**
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Definitely a shift towards a more blocked Atlantic on the models today. High pressure dominating over and around us, and in the case of the new GFS, really dominating.
If this happened during the summer we'd be talking about a heatwave! :cool:
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maquiladora wrote: »I know it's deep FI and just for fun, but wow.... I'm really surprised people aren't commenting on the 18Z GFS and especially the 18Z GFS parallel....especially the very end of the 18Z GFS parallel.... :pac:
Because it will probably look completely different tmrw
but cold at the end of Nov early Dec certainly looks back on the table. For now. 0 -
It's the Pub Run and I'm suspicious of the sudden switchback
Well it's FI so things always change once you're out past 200+ hours. The more blocked theme appeared on the 12Z runs too, it's just this time on these runs it falls into place in such a way that delivers cold air to our little island.
0Z runs will be different again of course. :pac: It's all just eye candy.Reckless Abandonment wrote: »Because it will probably look completely different tmrw but cold at the end of Nov early Dec certainly looks back on the table. For now.
Because it's the first real FI eye candy we've seen this year outside of the CFS. And this is the FI thread. :PWhat's ur thoughts maq on this winter or is it hard to tell?
You always have a good insight.
It's too early to tell. There are some indications that there will be a greater chance of cold spells this winter. Only time will tell.0 -
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maquiladora wrote: »Well it's FI so things always change once you're out past 200+ hours. The more blocked theme appeared on the 12Z runs too, it's just this time on these runs it falls into place in such a way that delivers cold air to our little island.
0Z runs will be different again of course. :pac: It's all just eye candy.
Because it's the first real FI eye candy we've seen this year outside of the CFS. And this is the FI thread. :P
Wer do u get your charts from so I can have a look 0 -
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A strong signal for high pressure in our vicinity right out to the end of the run on tonights ECMWF, probably setting up for a boring spell of weather though it should at least be relatively mild and dry. Potential is still there for the end of the month into December for colder weather as long as there's high pressure nearby but Eastern Europe just isn't cold enough to deliver anything interesting from an easterly at the moment
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Didn't think anyone here got out of bed for less than -8 850's?
Depends on the situation really. Some of the biggest snowfalls in Ireland have happened under 850 temps just barely below 0. Because most large snow events deal with Atlantic lows battling with colder air the 850 temps usually aren't exceptionally low.
For example, this low delivered a lot of snow to the south of the country, 26cm at Cork Airport, the record snowfall for that station.
850 temps were between 0 and -2 at the time.
But if you are looking for Irish Sea snow showers in late Nov/early Dec, about -7 is where rain/sleet turns to snow.
Of course the dew point always needs to be 0 or below, whatever the setup is.0 -
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maquiladora wrote: »Snow FI charts look like going into hibernation for a while.
Right now, FI stands for Flooded Island.
Would certainly start winter offically with a HOWL!
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That block to our east really isn't going anywhere on the latest EC and it could become a real stubborn and annoying feature for cold weather searchers..
It just sits there causing trough disruption all run and with that PV setting up shop west of Greenland, the chart is not pretty
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