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Flood risk in the South and East, very heavy rain and strong winds, Tues - Fri

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    #32
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Iancar see my post in the A beginners guide thread below

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=78209614&postcount=30


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    #33
    elainesnuffles
    Registered Users Posts: 67 ✭✭elainesnuffles


    darkman2 wrote: »
    The GFS is more toward the flood risk scenario today especially in the East. The fronts are thrown further north than on previous runs. I think Met Eireann are spot on myself to add a little sprinkle of caution.


    201775.png

    201776.png



    ECM also upgrade longevity of persistent rain in the East by a good 12hrs as against the previous run.


    Incidentally my garden is actually flooded today on the grass so either alot of runoff with little soakage or the water table is not quite as low as thought.
    Oh god i have confirmation wednesday! Just my luck


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    #34
    Jim_Kiy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 482 ✭✭Jim_Kiy


    delw wrote: »
    Just seen one of the lads selling the Evening Herald at the traffic lights with a head line on his jacket saying "Monster rain to hit city"
    It's not on their site yet but media must be jumping on the bandwagon

    Its online now..

    http://www.herald.ie/news/watch-out-monster-rain-is-on-its-way-here-3088827.html


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    #35
    APMom
    Registered Users Posts: 41 ✭APMom


    Can I ask a question, compared to last October are we getting more or less rain? We had a major flood in our gymnastics club that night in October and want to be as prepared as possible this week. Thanks.


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    #36
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    APMom wrote: »
    Can I ask a question, compared to last October are we getting more or less rain? We had a major flood in our gymnastics club that night in October and want to be as prepared as possible this week. Thanks.

    At the moment it doesnt look as severe , but is bad enough to be prepared just incase. All could change overnight. Best to be safe than sorry.


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    #37
    Nabber
    Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    The system in October hit the Wicklow mountains with roughly 100mm plus.
    I think sea level Dublin area got 50-70mm. Can't remember the full details.
    25mm the day before and 50-70mm the next day.

    Some one correct me my figures are probably off the mark.

    If this system has a slight stall. Could we be looking at another October fest?

    Harolds cross was one of the hardest hit places.


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    #38
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    It would appear from observations that that low is generating some strong winds off northwestern France this evening. Ship BATFR54 in northern Biscay reported continuous winds of 45 - 47 knots all afternoon, while the cruiseship Oceana reported 45 knot winds (estimated) and a Squall at 1800 Z, associated with the trailing occlusion.
    Squall: A strong wind that rises suddenly, lasts for a few minutes, then passes away. Squalls are frequently associated with the passage of cold fronts. In such circumstances, they occur in a line and are typically accompanied by a sharp fall in temperature, veering wind, a rise in relative humidity, and a roll-shaped cloud with a horizontal axis (line squall).

    As always I'm a little sceptical of actual ship wind speeds as they can be on the high side, especially those marked as estimated (Oceana above). They are often also measured several times higher than the standard 10 metres, and other reports nearby in the link above don't support such high speeds. Oceana's reported 3 metre waves would also indicate that actual winds are a lot lower than the 45 knots, which from the Beaufort Scale should be generating winds of around 7-10 metres.


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    #39
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,702 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Nabber wrote: »
    The system in October hit the Wicklow mountains with roughly 100mm plus.
    I think sea level Dublin area got 50-70mm. Can't remember the full details.
    25mm the day before and 50-70mm the next day.

    Some one correct me my figures are probably off the mark.

    If this system has a slight stall. Could we be looking at another October fest?

    Harolds cross was one of the hardest hit places.

    They recorded 90mm at Dublin City Council offices/rain guage.

    Hard to believe, but over a 48 hour period I recorded 125.3mm here (:eek:) so I'd imagine higher elevations got even more!

    I don't think were looking at the same sort of beast this week - last October really was phenominal.


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    #40
    only one
    Registered Users Posts: 130 ✭✭only one


    Wonder will cork/Waterford get hit with floods


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    #41
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    only one wrote: »
    Wonder will cork/Waterford get hit with floods

    I wouldn't rule out some spot flooding for the south as heavy rain looks to get going from early wednesday morning.

    120423_1200_45.png

    And then eastern areas feel the horrible prolonged conditions as the low seems to stall for a while.

    120423_1200_48.png

    Also don't forget the strong onshore wind.


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    #42
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,327 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The mid-week storm is currently forming up around 50N 30W (EC has it at 1008 mbs around 52N 32W) as illustrated in this satellite image that you can animate as desired (later readers can probably see a more current image).

    http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/satellite/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=satellite&imagename=goes_sigwx_1070_m_..................jpg&nbimages=1&clf=1

    The winds mentioned in Biscay are associated with the previous system which moved past Ireland last night and basically brought rain only to the far south followed by bands of showers spiralling around it.

    So far the mid-week system is relatively weak and winds reported from nearby ships are 25-30 knots. The models show it deepening steadily on Tuesday as it approaches 20W and then reaching 975 mbs between Wexford and Cornwall on Wednesday, moving northeast while gradually weakening to a point somewhere over north central England on Thursday.

    Expect winds to gust to 55 or 60 kts on Wednesday in some marine areas east and south of Ireland and this may bring some very strong gusts inland, will just leave it at that so early in the proceedings and update as we get closer, but right now would not be too surprised to see gusts above 50 kts for a time in Dublin and all around the southeast in exposed locations.

    Rainfall potential is about 30-60 mms with this system. I don't expect flooding to be particularly serious because of a relatively dry spring (the past week has seen above normal rain but long term ground soil moisture is not excessive, I would assume the storm will start with rivers and streams running relatively low, so they can absorb this amount of rain without severe flooding as they fill to near flood stages). However, it's probably within the realm of possibility that some places could see enough rain to have flooding issues. Certainly the ground will become saturated and some fields will have standing water by end of the two-day period of the event.

    Will get more into this tomorrow, as there is always the chance that the models have all overestimated deepening potential or a new track emerges, there is a lot of development to be seen before we actually have this system fully activated.


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    #43
    To Alcohol
    Registered Users Posts: 526 ✭✭✭To Alcohol


    It'll be a miracle if Punchestown isn't cancelled.


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    #44
    ednwireland
    Registered Users Posts: 14,291 ✭✭✭✭ednwireland


    To Alcohol wrote: »
    It'll be a miracle if Punchestown isn't cancelled.

    what about the FG tent there ? ;)

    My weather

    https://www.ecowitt.net/home/share?authorize=96CT1F



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    #45
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,327 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Storm now in a rapid development phase, 994 mbs at 50N 24W. Model consensus on track with slight variations, should be close to tip of Cornwall then northeast through south Wales into west Midlands of England and then Yorkshire. All models show a central pressure 970-975 mbs.

    I have checked the weather map archives, and failed to find as deep a low as this in late April especially on this track. That would apply to 131 years from 1871 to 2011.

    Have upgraded the boards forecast alert to a storm watch with 30-60 mms rain and wind gusts to 60 mph (SE backing ENE) in exposed areas.

    Long duration of event suggests potential for very high tides on east coast, for the south coast, water levels will be fairly high also but note that winds back around to become parallel to coast and then slightly offshore, so this would suggest less potential there for overtopping. The west coast may see some unusually low water levels at low tide times as water is pushed away from Ireland by the strong northeast winds.

    Will be very interesting to follow the details of the storm but it seems almost certain now to be a major event. Far north of Donegal could escape the rain for a good part of the event and rainfall amounts may not be excessive in parts of the west, I would say the 30 mm isohyet will run something like north Kerry to Athlone to Louth, with 15 mm from Galway to south Derry to Belfast, but 50 mm pockets east of higher terrain in southeast Ireland. This would include the Thursday portions of the rainfall.

    Sustained winds of 30-40 mph will spread out ahead of the deepening centre with gusts to 55-60 mph, and there is some chance of even stronger winds over the south half of the Irish Sea. In hilly areas of the west, you should factor in the terrain for your local forecast because this wind may be blocked out in a few places and channelled in others. But it will likely concentrate on outflow from Galway Bay and the Shannon-Lough Derg corridors.

    Wind speeds on top of high summits could reach 70-100 mph. It could also be cold enough there for sleet or ice pellets mixing with snow.

    The storm should arrive in the southwest around 8 pm today and by midnight it will have spread across most of Munster. It will arrive in Dublin around 0300 but peak conditions will occur about mid-day to evening.


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    #46
    ghogie91
    Registered Users Posts: 1,121 ✭✭✭ghogie91


    Hi Guys,

    Just wondering with the announcement of the new weather warnings of flooding, Is it due to hit Athlone again?

    Dont know if the town can deal with another mass flooding like last time, things are still being put right?

    Gary :confused:


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    #47
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Not a huge amount expected upriver, it is more like Clonmel or Kilkenny are at risk.


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    #48
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Well at least the DCC are doing something to prepare... truck going around here clearing all the drains. At least there wont be piles of leaves to block up drains this time round.


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    #49
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Wicklow looks like its gonna be bad acting as the shadow again.

    RAIN-D2-130.png


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    #50
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    I'd worry a bit about a repeat of the October floods in Dundrum or along the Dodder or indeed a Hurricane Charlie repeat.

    I'll probably start worrying about Wild Bill next. :D


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    #51
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,702 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    @ Iancar29

    Did that chart you posted just upadte? A couple of minutes ago, when I looked, there was a lot of red showing over the Dublin/Wicklow Mountains.

    When I looked again chart seems to have changed (in terms of downgrading ppn).

    I tend to get very wet here in these set ups being located on the foothills of the Dublin/Wicklow Mountains.


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    #52
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    @ Iancar29

    Did that chart you posted just upadte? A couple of minutes ago, when I looked, there was a lot of red showing over the Dublin/Wicklow Mountains.

    When I looked again chart seems to have changed (in terms of downgrading ppn).

    I tend to get very wet here in these set ups being located on the foothills of the Dublin/Wicklow Mountains.

    Ye new run , the heavy rain is still there just different time now.

    http://mathsci.ucd.ie/met/mcc-rain-d2.html


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    #53
    kittyn
    Registered Users Posts: 366 ✭✭kittyn


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    @ Iancar29

    Did that chart you posted just upadte? A couple of minutes ago, when I looked, there was a lot of red showing over the Dublin/Wicklow Mountains.

    When I looked again chart seems to have changed (in terms of downgrading ppn).

    I tend to get very wet here in these set ups being located on the foothills of the Dublin/Wicklow Mountains.

    Yea DOCARCH I hope Dundrum Town Centre are better prepared this time round hey .........


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    #54
    odyboody
    Registered Users Posts: 179 ✭✭odyboody


    kittyn wrote: »
    Yea DOCARCH I hope Dundrum Town Centre are better prepared this time round hey .........
    Tesco not directly affected last time but taking no chances.http://www.tesco.com/direct/white-water-kayak-yellow/395-9330.prd?skuId=395-9330&pageLevel=:rolleyes:


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    #55
    Dave!
    Closed Accounts Posts: 27,857 ✭✭✭✭Dave!


    When is this expected to hit? Nice enough weather here in Wicklow at the mo :-/


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    #56
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,963 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Unreal rain in Wexford the last hour.


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    #57
    seamus
    Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Dave! wrote: »
    When is this expected to hit? Nice enough weather here in Wicklow at the mo :-/
    Going by the above charts, North Wicklow/Dublin should expect to see fairly steady, but not heavy showers from around 1am Wednesday, and then the whole thing will ramp up between 11am and 8pm, after which it will die off quite quickly.

    The heavy rain system will hit the South East around 6am and progressively increase in severity as it progresses up the east cost, landing in Wicklow around 10am and moving northwards. It will dissipate once it has left Dublin.

    Much like the floods last year, the worst of it will hit during peak rush hours of people going home. If you're in work tomorrow, forget about taking the car or the busses. Take your wellies and your rain jacket. Don't bother with the brolly, it won't stay up.


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    #58
    Dave!
    Closed Accounts Posts: 27,857 ✭✭✭✭Dave!


    eek! I live in Terenure :( Not taking the car isn't an option unfortunately.


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    #59
    paulb06
    Registered Users Posts: 605 ✭✭✭paulb06


    Just had lightening and a big rumble of thunder in Blanchardstown.


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    #60
    Nabber
    Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    If possible, don't park your car in underground car parking. Although not as much rain is predicted as was for October. Still might see a few underground carparks struggling to cope with the rain.


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    #61
    blackius
    Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    Lovely day in Arklow but very black towards the Wicklow mtns


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