Tesla/Lithium stocks discussion

dontparkhere · 22-08-2020 11:03am

How much of the price increase is due to a short squeeze?

phantom_lord · 23-08-2020 11:19am

unkel wrote: »

I really hope you were joking. TSLA has doubled again since your post two months ago, now well over USD2000. All other auto makers shares are performing poorly because of COVID.

I was short short-term puts. Defined risk. And it was the only thing I was short.

Far too expensive to short now, as crazy and frothy as it all is. Good lesson for the future though, next time there's an irrational bubble...go with the bubble.

Timmaay · 03-09-2020 1:13pm

Finally getting the pullback that I expected, but jezz it's still over 2k in pre share split levels. If it drops back under the likes of 350$ I'll look at getting back in, battery day Sept 22nd should drive it on again then.

lucky john · 20-09-2020 9:57pm

Sold my Tesla shares after 4 years and +700%. I feel a bit bereaved now but they will pay for an small extension to the house that the better half has wanted for a while.

I fully intend to get back in as soon as I have the cash again. I have no doubt Tesla is on the way to being one of the biggest companies in the world.

unkel · 19-11-2020 8:01pm

unkel wrote: »

And here we are, less than 2 weeks after you posted that and now near 1700/share

And 4 months after that post we are well over 2500 per share (divided by 5)

Another 50% up on what was already a very high valuation. Obviously the inclusion in S&P (which was coming a long time) helped prop the value up

I hope nothing really bad happened to those shorters. It was a negative, even immoral, thing they did, but they don't deserve to be financially ruined for life because of it.

Mr.David · 23-11-2020 3:34pm

unkel wrote: »

It was a negative, even immoral, thing they did, but they don't deserve to be financially ruined for life because of it.

Why is it negative? It certainly isn't immoral!

Shorting is incredibly important to a healthy functioning market.

uli84 · 24-11-2020 11:05am

Does it still make sense to invest in Tesla or it’s too late?

Atlas_IRL · 24-11-2020 11:52am

It's never too late if you want to hold long term but for short flips it's riskier now, it rises lots on catalysts. Battery day, s&p inclusion, stock split etc.

dinneenp · 24-11-2020 12:53pm

uli84 wrote: »

Does it still make sense to invest in Tesla or it’s too late?

People have asking that for years. Nobody knows is the answer (that you don't want). I think they still can go a lot higher, could be wrong though.

There's massive demand for them, they're ramping up production, people will jump on them as they're a share even the man of the street hears of which could push prices up higher. On the other hand, direct competition companies are focusing more on electric (but I don't think they'll ever attain the cult-status of Tesla).

26-11-2020 6:18pm

Autoline network toted up the valuation of all the major US car manufacturers and major component suppliers and their capitalizations still didn't match Tesla's market cap.

antimatterx · 30-11-2020 3:44pm

Tesla is at $600. Wtf is that.

Thats 45% of an increase in two weeks.

unkel · 30-11-2020 4:10pm

antimatterx wrote: »

Tesla is at $600. Wtf is that.

S&P effect.

unkel · 30-11-2020 4:11pm

Mr.David wrote: »

Why is it negative? It certainly isn't immoral!

A lot of people were shorting to try and make the company go bankrupt. Trying to do that to a company that is clearly a force for good, is immoral imho.

Timmaay · 07-12-2020 4:54pm

My biggest 2020 trading regret. Swing trading Tesla instead of Hloding all the way lol. 630, thats 3150$ pre split, and everyone thought Amazon at 3k was nuts afew months back ha.

unkel · 07-12-2020 5:03pm

Timmaay wrote: »

My biggest 2020 trading regret. Swing trading Tesla instead of Hloding all the way lol. 630, thats 3150$ pre split, and everyone thought Amazon at 3k was nuts afew months back ha.

Funny you mention that. The leaders of Amazon and Tesla are the two richest men on the planet

ELM327 · 07-12-2020 5:58pm

Timmaay wrote: »

My biggest 2020 trading regret. Swing trading Tesla instead of Hloding all the way lol. 630, thats 3150$ pre split, and everyone thought Amazon at 3k was nuts afew months back ha.

For the same here.
I cashed out at around 1000 pre split.
Did not in a million years expect this. The numbers don't back it up at all, but as a wise man once said, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent!

Mad_maxx · 07-12-2020 11:29pm

Timmaay wrote: »

My biggest 2020 trading regret. Swing trading Tesla instead of Hloding all the way lol. 630, thats 3150$ pre split, and everyone thought Amazon at 3k was nuts afew months back ha.

got a kick in the nuts today , sold 40% of my position at the open , did not anticipate the huge rise today

Tesla has deliver over $10 k profit for me since september , ive traded it well up to now including last wednesday when it dropped to $540 briefly

richie123 · 08-12-2020 12:41am

Mad_maxx wrote: »

got a kick in the nuts today , sold 40% of my position at the open , did not anticipate the huge rise today

Tesla has deliver over $10 k profit for me since september , ive traded it well up to now including last wednesday when it dropped to $540 briefly

Never regret taking a profit or what extra you could of gained.

Mad_maxx · 08-12-2020 11:47am

at this rate , Tesla could be at $1000 by year end , its irrelevant which way the broader market is going , you need to be in but not too much

i sold the rest of my position below $650 yesterday , its up 3% plus in pre market , I thought it might retest a bit today but not yet by the looks of things , funny thing about the stock is , you never know when the big money will run it down 10% and the drop usually lasts no longer than a half hour

p to the e · 08-12-2020 3:50pm

This article seems relevant in this thread.

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2020/dec/08/the-curse-of-white-oil-electric-vehicles-dirty-secret-lithium

Timmaay · 08-12-2020 11:17pm

p to the e wrote: »

This article seems relevant in this thread.

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2020/dec/08/the-curse-of-white-oil-electric-vehicles-dirty-secret-lithium

https://fortune.com/2020/09/28/tesla-mine-lithium-batteries-cheaper-cars/

Musk already trying to fix that, who knows if it will succeed thought. EVs do in general have a much better life cycle energy and co2 output than any ICE vehicles, for ICE vehicles you cannot mitigate the fuel used across the vehicles operating life, EVs when combined with a high renewable energy mix (at the minute only the Scandinavian countries achieving this), you will get a 70% reduction in co2 across its life, even with the battery manufacturing.

Another wild day for Tesla, they had a share offering which probably was a good idea for the poor EFTs tracking the S&P lol, immediately sell off but bounced straight back and it's like 650 now. Way too extended for me to get into now, will be interesting to see where it goes across the next few weeks but due a strong pullback soon.

unkel · 08-12-2020 11:23pm

Timmaay wrote: »

for ICE vehicles you cannot mitigate the fuel used across the vehicles operating life, EVs when combined with a high renewable energy mix

EVs are overwhelmingly charged at night (after midnight). People might not be aware but on average 50% of electricity generated in Ireland during night rate hours is currently from renewables (wind) and this percentage is growing every year. In fact we will soon be generating so much of this wind energy at night, that we couldn't do much else with it except charge EVs and other batteries (extremely cheaply) and / or sell it off to other countries (again extremely cheaply)

Bigus · 09-12-2020 12:14am

Timmaay wrote: »

My biggest 2020 trading regret. Swing trading Tesla instead of Hloding all the way lol. 630, thats 3150$ pre split, and everyone thought Amazon at 3k was nuts afew months back ha.

If you think that’s bad , I have an acquaintance (uniformed public servent) here in Dublin that met an investment advisor to A/C Milan footballers back in about 2014/15, one of the tips he got was Tesla.

Fair play to him he went all in with €20,000 euro when they were at about $18 or $19 per share so today they’d be about $3.2m....... he sold out at $30.

Even if he took his full 20 k back when he sold at $30 he’d be in clover if he only kept the balance at nil risk.

Mad_maxx · 09-12-2020 8:53am

Bought back @$620 yesterday

Buy the dips

sk8board · 09-12-2020 1:13pm

ELM327 wrote: »

For the same here.
I cashed out at around 1000 pre split.
Did not in a million years expect this. The numbers don't back it up at all, but as a wise man once said, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent!

As long as your buy or sell decisions are made on sound data, you shouldn’t need to lament a ‘what if I held on’ afterwards.

If you’re lamenting selling, you have a problem in the interpretation of the charts.

irishlad13 · 14-12-2020 6:40pm

Hi all,
I was thinking of finally cashing in on my Tesla shares while the going is currently good. I'm not sure whether to sell Friday before their inclusion to the S&P or will they rise early Monday when market opens due to the sheer volume of shares required. Advice would be appreciated.

richie123 · 14-12-2020 9:37pm

irishlad13 wrote: »

Hi all,
I was thinking of finally cashing in on my Tesla shares while the going is currently good. I'm not sure whether to sell Friday before their inclusion to the S&P or will they rise early Monday when market opens due to the sheer volume of shares required. Advice would be appreciated.

I probably would sell a percentage of them.
They're on fire at the minute.what did they cost do you mind me asking?

14-12-2020 9:39pm

huge potential downside, limited upside.
maybe put a stop loss on it.

unkel · 14-12-2020 10:57pm

Deleted User wrote: »

huge potential downside, limited upside.

That's what I thought when I sold mine. They've gone up by 1000% in value since...

Mad_maxx · 14-12-2020 11:39pm

irishlad13 wrote: »

Hi all,
I was thinking of finally cashing in on my Tesla shares while the going is currently good. I'm not sure whether to sell Friday before their inclusion to the S&P or will they rise early Monday when market opens due to the sheer volume of shares required. Advice would be appreciated.

inclusion is December 21st ?

jelem · 15-12-2020 12:04am

whats that south american country that is basically made of lith__ that usa is
about to (maybe started) to take over ---
the mining companies whom gain usa government approval are sure things as
the push to green electric batteries etc. will need that countries possesions.
bidens pets may be a "good thing" to follow could even be the transfered "ukraine boy".
have to watch for name placements on mining companies.

littlevillage · 15-12-2020 10:47am

irishlad13 wrote: »

Hi all,
I was thinking of finally cashing in on my Tesla shares while the going is currently good. I'm not sure whether to sell Friday before their inclusion to the S&P or will they rise early Monday when market opens due to the sheer volume of shares required. Advice would be appreciated.

In the same boat myself... think I'll hold to see what happens when US market opens on Monday.

Timmaay · 15-12-2020 2:08pm

littlevillage wrote: »

In the same boat myself... think I'll hold to see what happens when US market opens on Monday.

The most palatable thing to do when you are unsure as such is to sell half and let the other half run.

Sabre Man · 15-12-2020 7:03pm

irishlad13 wrote: »

Hi all,
I was thinking of finally cashing in on my Tesla shares while the going is currently good. I'm not sure whether to sell Friday before their inclusion to the S&P or will they rise early Monday when market opens due to the sheer volume of shares required. Advice would be appreciated.

The funds that are required to buy due to the S&P inclusion don't all have to buy at a specific date. They can buy before and after.

sk8board · 15-12-2020 7:32pm

my charting software just sounds the 'Trap' alarm every time I plug in the tesla data

That said, it's beeing saying that for the past 12 months - The main issue is that charting software doesn't deal very well with stocks with an unqualtifiable emotional attachment, the two big ones for Tesla being Lord Elon/Muskateers on the one hand and also irrational retail investers (i.e. gambling) on the other, albeit they try to use momentum as a workaround.

The P/E ratio is just simply bonkers and to that end you may have seen an email from Musk to employees last week that the SP will be crushed like a 'Souflee under a sledgehammer' if they can't increase production this month, and I'd argue they'll have to keep increasing it for the next decade. Thats a lot of new factories, pretty much every year.

We've all said it before, it's genuinbely hard to see where the next SP growth is going to come from - growth that isn't already priced in.

Atlas_IRL · 16-12-2020 10:03am

Are tesla missing the boat on solid-state - Toyota have released some great data and quantumscape are flying

https://thedriven.io/2020/12/14/toyota-plans-revolutionary-solid-state-battery-for-2021/

https://www.wired.com/story/quantumscape-solid-state-battery/

unkel · 16-12-2020 11:25am

Atlas_IRL wrote: »

Are tesla missing the boat on solid-state - Toyota have released some great data and quantumscape are flying

https://thedriven.io/2020/12/14/toyota-plans-revolutionary-solid-state-battery-for-2021/

https://www.wired.com/story/quantumscape-solid-state-battery/

You're quite the optimist!

Solid state batteries have been "only 5 years away commercially in an EV" for a good decade now. A couple of times a year we see an article mentioning some sort of break through and then things go quiet again.

From your first link:

"Japanese car maker Toyota will introduce a solid state battery that can recharge to full in just 10 minutes 2021, a move that could revolutionise the electric vehicle market."

Says who, the author of that article? I can't find any press release that Toyota will have a fully electric car on the market in 2021 with solid state batteries. Will they even have any EV on the market here at all next year? It would be their first EV

Not a chance Toyota will have an EV for sale here in Europe (or in Japan or the US) next year with solid state batteries. Not a chance in hell.

Mad_maxx · 18-12-2020 11:14am

any predictions for today

i reckon we see new highs but close down fairly strong at the close as as a case of " sell the news " ?

crushproof · 18-12-2020 3:32pm

Odds of Tesla reaching $1,000 (again) in 2021?

Timmaay · 18-12-2020 4:21pm

crushproof wrote: »

Odds of Tesla reaching $1,000 (again) in 2021?

Probably higher than the odds of them not hitting it lol.

Mad_maxx · 08-01-2021 12:49pm

out since around $670 myself , got in big @$350 in september , while kicking myself for not riding the bubble longer , had it gone the other way , id be doing the same , impossible to value something like this as rationale has long left the building

08-01-2021 1:31pm

Tesla shares inflating while VAG shares only modestly growing despite VAG products being the best selling products in the market with the most sophisticated EV consumers in the world.
https://www.electrive.com/2021/01/05/norway-registers-13718-new-bevs-in-december/
Between e-tron variants, Taycan, id3, e-golf and the Up triplets VW are the strongest EV manufacturer in Norway. They have a global footprint that Tesla can only dream of.
There is no logic to Tesla's share price.

unkel · 08-01-2021 1:52pm

To paraphrase your post there, haphaphap: I don't own Tesla shares, but I do own Volkswagen shares.

08-01-2021 1:55pm

Deleted User wrote: »

............
There is no logic to Tesla's share price.

Indeed, it's all ifs and buts.
The fanboys will claim to know more about finance than finance folk of course and price to earning ratios etc don't mean anything really because of you know, elon this and elon that :pac:

08-01-2021 1:59pm

..and the VW ID4 and Skoda Enyaq are only just rolling off the production line in December 2020.
Model Y has been cannibalizing Model 3 sales and I can't see who'd buy a Model Y over these new VAG models. At the lower end ID3, ID4 and Enyaq will take the sales while at the high end the Audi E-trons will take the sales.

Mad_maxx · 08-01-2021 3:11pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Tesla shares inflating while VAG shares only modestly growing despite VAG products being the best selling products in the market with the most sophisticated EV consumers in the world.
https://www.electrive.com/2021/01/05/norway-registers-13718-new-bevs-in-december/
Between e-tron variants, Taycan, id3, e-golf and the Up triplets VW are the strongest EV manufacturer in Norway. They have a global footprint that Tesla can only dream of.
There is no logic to Tesla's share price.

volkswagen has been a rubbish stock to own for years , as has every other auto stock , add to that TESLA dominates the EV markets in america and China , The two most important markets

08-01-2021 3:28pm

Mad_maxx wrote: »

volkswagen has been a rubbish stock to own for years , as has every other auto stock , add to that TESLA dominates the EV markets in america and China , The two most important markets

And VW, now that they have turned their attention to the market, will destroy Teslas sales around the world regardless of whether you think they are a rubbish stock or not.
They're neck and neck with Toyota as the largest manufacturer in the world.

unkel · 08-01-2021 3:30pm

Augeo wrote: »

Indeed, it's all ifs and buts.
The fanboys will claim to know more about finance than finance folk of course and price to earning ratios etc don't mean anything really because of you know, elon this and elon that :pac:

Everything in the stock market is irrational, surely you know that. I bought Tesla once, when it was very low, and sold soon after for a 50% profit. Thought I did well. You can never lose when you make a profit right - didn't your man from Nebraska say something like that?

If I had held onto them and sold today, that would have been my pension fund sorted. Hindsight, eh? Rationalism eh? Fanboism eh?

It's the way of the world. And it turns out those Tesla hodling fanbois were either lucky or had a far better grasp of what was likely to happen in the world in the short to medium term than you or I did. Probably both.

unkel · 08-01-2021 3:32pm

Deleted User wrote: »

And VW, now that they have turned their attention to the market, will destroy Teslas sales around the world regardless of whether you think they are a rubbish stock or not.
They're neck and neck with Toyota as the largest manufacturer in the world.

Hope you are right about a glorious future for VW. We need at least a second big company to pull the transition to EVs, Tesla can't do it alone, even though they are now one of the top 10 most valuable companies in the world. Looks like Toyota might be a goner. Unless they have a solid state battery trick up their sleeves (I doubt it). See my sig

Mad_maxx · 08-01-2021 3:35pm

Deleted User wrote: »

And VW, now that they have turned their attention to the market, will destroy Teslas sales around the world regardless of whether you think they are a rubbish stock or not.
They're neck and neck with Toyota as the largest manufacturer in the world.

there EV offerings are too expensive to sell well in america , a new Tesla model 3 is $35000 in america

the european auto market is quite different to every other one so just because Tesla are not the number one seller in Holland , doesnt tell us anything really

Tesla/Lithium stocks discussion

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