Tesla/Lithium stocks discussion

Kilboor

phantom_lord wrote: »

You don't think presenting a fake product makes him a charlatan? What would he need for you do to think he is? He used that presentation to sell the takeover to shareholders. I don't really know what to say to you here.



Yes he's been claiming it as next year for a long time now. I dunno how people keep falling for the same tactic but it obv works.

Well the fact that product is still in existence and has not been cancelled as of yet, then NO I categorically don't believe he is a charlatan. They still have that product and there's a high possibility it will come to market.

We will see, the latest autonomy presentation showcased how far along self driving has come. You bears claim that Tesla software kill people then go and say he shouldn't push back software despite it being done to refine and pass safety standards no doubt.


Anyway all speculation, let's see where it'll be in 2 years.

Mainstream media blatant bias against Tesla as well as insurance companies are my two biggest bearish concerns.

phantom_lord

:pac: No wonder Musk gets away with so much.

Mainstream media blatant bias against Tesla as well as insurance companies are my two biggest bearish concerns.

Mainstream media laps up every thing he says. And providing cover is extremely expensive for insurance companies. Spare parts are non existent due to Musk's logistic mess. There's no conspiracy, it's just problems caused by Tesla.

Sabre Man

phantom_lord wrote: »

Mainstream media laps up every thing he says.

And usually twist it to a negative angle, always adding words like "struggling" etc.

ct5amr2ig1nfhp

I'm very impressed he cut 10% of the Tesla workforce and followed up with another 7% cut. Very impressed indeed. Might have played a part in reducing Tesla's losses perhaps? :rolleyes:

phantom_lord

Sabre Man wrote: »

And usually twist it to a negative angle, always adding words like "struggling" etc.

:pac:

KCross

One things for certain, one side is going to be back here saying "i told ye so, i knew it all along, but ye wouldnt listen!"

phantom_lord

KCross wrote: »

One things for certain, one side is going to be back here saying "i told ye so, i knew it all along, but ye wouldnt listen!"

It's enron in plain sight but people don't want to listen. They actually did a 2bn raise before they went busto too.

drunkmonkey

KCross wrote: »

One things for certain, one side is going to be back here saying "i told ye so, i knew it all along, but ye wouldnt listen!"

We've already had that a few times, going to 420 and some bought the dream.

KCross

drunkmonkey wrote: »

We've already had that a few times, going to 420 and some bought the dream.

Pfft... 420.... 4000 is where it's at! :P

I dont know whether it will go down in flames or soar. I would just like it to survive and keep making EV's.

phantom_lord

EVs are on the way no matter what happens Tesla, they'll just be built by well organised functioning companies.

Sabre Man

Interesting perspective on valuation. A fair assessment, I think.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-to-rationally-value-teslas-stock-2019-04-30?mod=mw_quote_news

phantom_lord

I'm going full in on drinking the Kool-Aid. I just placed an order for three Model 3 SR+ cars for my close family members with the hope that they appreciate in value and that I can put them on the Tesla Network.

My plan is to let them use the cars for free until I can put them on the network and then they can still use them as their daily transport after then.

If the cars truly appreciate in value, I may just sell the cars and not worry about ride sharing.

What a time to be alive

https://old.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/bk9dvn/just_placed_an_order_for_3_sr_cars_for_my_close/

Kilboor

phantom_lord wrote: »

What a time to be alive

https://old.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/bk9dvn/just_placed_an_order_for_3_sr_cars_for_my_close/

That is one stupid reason for buying the car.

phantom_lord

unkel wrote: »

Miles behind? Then what about this. Current Model 3, all hardware is there on all models, for this one they just enabled a beta version of the FSD software. This is not geo-fenced. The car can do this anywhere

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tlThdr3O5Qo

So Musk is saying he's leading the field and it will all be solved in a few months. Let's look at his prior history for predictions.

He said he was going private
He presented fake solar tiles as a finished product
He's been promising FDS since 2016 as being six months away
Just about every production target
Just about every sales target





This is GM two years ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vfgjemwc9NU

Ford in the snow (Tesla said at their presentation that they haven't even looked at snow)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vShi-xx6ze8

Cruise in San Fran

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6tiyZXKwdOA

Meanwhile Tesla's can't handle stationary objects and tries to drive into a truck that it detected a few seconds before. It's a widespread flaw, there's tons of these videos.

Now you could claim a bias with the videos posted, but Tesla have nothing as good as the videos posted above.

https://twitter.com/kapitalny/status/1117923230189281281

The leaders in the field (who are actually running autonomous fleets in cities) are tempering expectations, saying it's years away. While Musk, with a long line of failed predictions, who just did a raise to keep the lights on for a few months is promising robotaxis, and a 500bn company once the tech is ready in a few months?

And people believe him?

Mike9832

Good post man

You have to be very very naive to think self driving is close

Everyone has gone incredibly quiet on self driving, except Musk lol

OwlsZat

Mike9832 wrote: »

Good post man

You have to be very very naive to think self driving is close

Everyone has gone incredibly quiet on self driving, except Musk lol

Waymo are the self driving leaders with millions of miles driven and they are facing serious technical difficulties. Musk is well off on this one.

Mike9832

OwlsZat wrote: »

Waymo are the self driving leaders with millions of miles driven and they are facing serious technical difficulties. Musk is well off on this one.

Musk in his own words has to solve vision for it to work, computer vision

Then his AI software has to have every possible scenario on the road pre-loaded ,as real AI doesn't exist, even AI as smart as a dog doesn't exist and don't think many dogs could pass a driving test

Waymo the leaders like you have pointed are using Lidar and going down a different path, no waymo's car has ever kill someone or rammed someone, barriers etc. They must be doing something right

This will be Musk's biggest failure

unkel

phantom_lord wrote: »

So Musk is saying he's leading the field and it will all be solved in a few months.

He's always been ridiculously optimistic. About everything. I doubt very much that he will get regulatory approval for self driving before the end of next year.

Where Tesla are ahead (and this does not seem to be reflected at all in that matrix) is that all their cars sold today already have all of the hardware required to do FSD. And it doesn't make them expensive compared to the competition (stick a lidar in a car and it becomes so expensive nobody would buy it - not a realistic approach). And the software (still very much disfunctioning today) can be updated OTA step by step at the flick of a switch.

And they gather many, many times more data from existing cars than any of the other companies. It remains to be seen if they will be successful with machine learning with that feed.

phantom_lord

Musk will tell you otherwise but their hardware simply isn't capable of level 5.

Sabre Man

phantom_lord wrote: »

Musk will tell you otherwise but their hardware simply isn't capable of level 5.

Says who?

phantom_lord

Pretty much everyone who doesn't work for Tesla. It's one of the reasons why they're so behind in the chart above.

You want to trust your life to a car that can't handle lens flare?

Sabre Man

phantom_lord wrote: »

Pretty much everyone who doesn't work for Tesla. It's one of the reasons why they're so behind in the chart above.

You want to trust your life to a car that can't handle lens flare?

Have you got a source for your lens flare statement?

phantom_lord

https://amp.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/ax0jxt/tesla_autopilot_driving_directly_into_the_sun/

Sabre Man

phantom_lord wrote: »

https://amp.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/ax0jxt/tesla_autopilot_driving_directly_into_the_sun/

Thanks for the link. It's possible the cameras got blinded there, but it's also possible that this will be fixed in a later update.

In any case, this problem isn't unique to Tesla's self driving effort. Lidar is useless in cases like this one. With five forward facing cameras I would think Tesla has a better chance of solving this issue than the current competition.

Edit: On second thoughts, I think it may be possible to solve this with maps and lidar.

Kilboor

Competition still isn't there.

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/blkkmw/the_tesla_model_3_had_higher_us_sales_in_april/

Sabre Man

Kilboor wrote: »

Competition still isn't there.

https://preview.redd.it/cmb03xm9zow21.jpg?width=960&crop=smart&auto=webp&1919bca8

The link doesn't seem to work.

Kilboor

Sabre Man wrote: »

The link doesn't seem to work.

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/blkkmw/the_tesla_model_3_had_higher_us_sales_in_april/

Sabre Man

I'm not sure how accurate these numbers are.

Kilboor

Sabre Man wrote: »

I'm not sure how accurate these numbers are.

No source for it.

Nobody seems to debate the figures though.

Interesting stat too:

Kilboor

https://www.theverge.com/2019/5/7/18536003/waymo-lyft-self-driving-ride-hail-app-phoenix

Robo Taxis ay?