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Tesla/Lithium stocks discussion

  • 04-04-2016 5:02pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 949 ✭✭✭ Prezatch


    Have started a new thread...
    Green Mile wrote: »
    Elon Musk’s dream is to progress the whole electric car market not just for Tesla. He publishes the technology as open source for other companies to use to help them to compete with Tesla and each other, to help aid the progression of making electric cars more affordable and mainstream to the public. It doesn’t matter to him if people buy Tesla or Google cars etc, his main goal is to trigger a move for all car companies to direct their resources to getting electric cars to the market to “better the world”. He outlines this himself in many Tesla interviews online.

    Tesla is
    in my opinion,
    not a long term company to invest in. The guy is worth 13Billion, this is a project/hobby to him. Elon Musk is the closest we have to a real life Iron Man and has a cult following.
    I sold my Tesla shares at $244 and I think it was a good idea selling at that price when I did. It’s not a long term idea. But I could be wrong.

    I also sold my holding today at $246, a tidy one month 24% gain.


«13456754

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 17,290 ✭✭✭✭ Thargor


    I sold at $235 before the recent dip and rise, my best ever return on a share but wasn't tempted to get back in when they kept going down, its impossible to know where they're going to go, Id agree with Green Miles post though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,995 ✭✭✭ Sabre Man




  • Registered Users Posts: 838 ✭✭✭ lucky john


    "Elon Musk’s dream is to progress the whole electric car market not just for Tesla. He publishes the technology as open source for other companies to use to help them to compete with Tesla and each other, to help aid the progression of making electric cars more affordable and mainstream to the public. It doesn’t matter to him if people buy Tesla or Google cars etc, his main goal is to trigger a move for all car companies to direct their resources to getting electric cars to the market to “better the world”. He outlines this himself in many Tesla interviews online. "

    True, but that is only part of the story. There are two reasons why he shares his technology. 1. to turn EV's into a mass market acceptable product. Its easier to do that with plenty of producers than with Tesla on its own. 2. the competition were, and still are for the most part so far behind in their development of EV's, they did nothing to challenge Tesla. By giving them his ideas he is forcing his own company to drive on and continue to innovate.

    The end result is not a mad scientist just in this to better humanity. It is also an extremely ambitious business man prepared to go rewrite every business book on how to built a multi billion dollar company.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,995 ✭✭✭ Sabre Man




  • Registered Users Posts: 498 ✭✭ Roonbox


    Its seems very expensive up here -
    $35k car make a $35b co?
    2015 Tesla sld 51,095 vehicles
    GM sold ~10m

    Tesla lost $889m
    GM made $8.45b


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,995 ✭✭✭ Sabre Man


    They're investing in the gigafactory and rolling out superchargers and new stores. Also R&D on Model 3. That's where the money is going. Tesla wants to grow fast.


  • Registered Users Posts: 949 ✭✭✭ Prezatch


    Excellent video here that explains the current situation:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-03-31/tesla-doubles-down-with-the-model-3


  • Registered Users Posts: 318 ✭✭ pajosjunkbox


    Bought in @ 1.58 back in Feb. First real dabbling in shares. Opened a degiro account and decided to play with some savings. Not sure whether to hold or take the money and run. Also bought BOI , Cairn homes and Netflix but Tesla have dwarfed them !


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,995 ✭✭✭ Sabre Man


    Bought in @ 1.58 back in Feb. First real dabbling in shares. Opened a degiro account and decided to play with some savings. Not sure whether to hold or take the money and run. Also bought BOI , Cairn homes and Netflix but Tesla have dwarfed them !

    You could set up a stop loss order with DeGiro in case TSLA suddenly heads south. That's what I have done.

    I was actually expecting a drop in the share price after Tesla missed their target but it seems the huge numbers of reservations made up for that. Based on this I think the price will trend higher in the coming weeks provided the broader market isn't rattled too much. Volume is double the average.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,299 ✭✭✭✭ Francie Barrett


    Roonbox wrote: »
    Its seems very expensive up here -
    $35k car make a $35b co?
    2015 Tesla sld 51,095 vehicles
    GM sold ~10m

    Tesla lost $889m
    GM made $8.45b
    What has that got to do with anything? :pac:


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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,299 ✭✭✭✭ Francie Barrett


    Tried to go short Tesla today, but the borrow cost is just ridiculous, so I have played the short through a January 2017 put at $160 with a stop loss at $310. Yee-haw.


  • Registered Users Posts: 498 ✭✭ Roonbox


    What has that got to do with anything? :pac:

    Damn right Francie, what are numbers when it just keeps rising :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 498 ✭✭ Roonbox


    Tried to go short Tesla today, but the borrow cost is just ridiculous, so I have played the short through a January 2017 put at $160 with a stop loss at $310. Yee-haw.


    You may find this interesting if you are thinking of shorting -
    http://www.riskreversal.com/2016/04/06/update-tsla-closing-apr-june-put-calendar-near-stop/


  • Registered Users Posts: 473 ✭✭ Corcaigh84


    Bought in @ 1.58 back in Feb. First real dabbling in shares. Opened a degiro account and decided to play with some savings. Not sure whether to hold or take the money and run. Also bought BOI , Cairn homes and Netflix but Tesla have dwarfed them !

    Apologies if OT but like you I am considering my first dabble in shares, and also with degiro. What would be your minimum amount of cash to throw on there to get my feet wet?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,995 ✭✭✭ Sabre Man


    thefloss wrote: »
    Apologies if OT but like you I am considering my first dabble in shares, and also with degiro. What would be your minimum amount of cash to throw on there to get my feet wet?

    Which shares are you considering? US shares incur about €0.5 in commission with DeGiro, which is 0.5% if you're investing €100, so I would suggest investing at least €200.

    For ETFs the charge is €4 (at least for US ETFs). Other stock exchanges have different changes, I think.

    If you're talking about Tesla, 1 share would be OK but I would not recommend buying Tesla at the current price (about $268).


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,299 ✭✭✭✭ Francie Barrett


    Roonbox wrote: »
    You may find this interesting if you are thinking of shorting -
    http://www.riskreversal.com/2016/04/06/update-tsla-closing-apr-june-put-calendar-near-stop/
    I am not too worried, those people were unlucky to short into a market rally and some Tesla ramping. I think the market is over-valued and am expecting a market decline at some point this year. I think that story stocks likes Tesla that have no earnings and are basically only a promise, are going to take a pasting at some point, especially when it comes to raising equity.


  • Registered Users Posts: 498 ✭✭ Roonbox


    I am not too worried, those people were unlucky to short into a market rally and some Tesla ramping. I think the market is over-valued and am expecting a market decline at some point this year. I think that story stocks likes Tesla that have no earnings and are basically only a promise, are going to take a pasting at some point, especially when it comes to raising equity.

    I agree with you but that doesn't mean it cant get even higher before it falls. Its a tough one to try to pick a top on.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,995 ✭✭✭ Sabre Man


    My stop loss kicked in at 255 yesterday so I'm out for the time being. Time will tell if it was the right decision.


  • Registered Users Posts: 838 ✭✭✭ lucky john



    I think Musk would appreciate the symbolism of using that site, not to mention what financial benefits the French would offer to have him anchored there.

    Historic landing by the Dragon rocket yesterday. Well done to SpaceX


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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,299 ✭✭✭✭ Francie Barrett


    Elon Musk is on well on his way to a $1.6 billion pay-out thanks to shareholders - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-18/elon-musk-ahead-of-pace-for-1-6-billion-tesla-motors-payday


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,299 ✭✭✭✭ Francie Barrett


    Wall Street values Tesla at $620,000 per car. By contrast, a GM vehicle is worth $4,800: http://reut.rs/1SX9pDz


  • Registered Users Posts: 325 ✭✭ b4bmm


    I haven't heard anyone on about Lithium on here. Has anyone invested in a Lithium company or know of any that could be of interest.

    I know quite a few that have boomed over the last 12 months. Phenomenal returns 20-40X all ASX listed companies. Of course I haven't invested in them, have invested in a graphite company instead. Nowhere near the gains of these companies but as it stands on paper a good return. Holding for more.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,995 ✭✭✭ Sabre Man


    I think demand for lithium will increase a lot over the coning years due to more and more EVs coming to the market, but I haven't done any research yet.

    The Tesla Gigafactories Are Coming. Can Global Lithium Supply Keep Up?
    http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/04/26/the-tesla-gigafactories-are-coming-can-global-lith.aspx

    A few contenders:
    http://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/energy-investing/lithium-investing/top-lithium-producers/

    As for Tesla, it seems there are still issues with Model X production so I expect the stock to keep falling in the near term. The earnings report is due today.


  • Registered Users Posts: 480 ✭✭ FernandoTorres


    Lithium has massive potential. Tesla Model 3 pre-orders and Powerwall are just one aspect of it. There is massive government backing in China for electric vehicles and they're aiming to have 5m on the road by 2020. In 2014 there were 665,000 electric cars in the world. All of the major manufacturers are now seeing it as the future. If any of these things play out to even a fraction of their potential, demand for lithium will be through the roof and supply is still quite low.

    I've personally invested in PLS and AJM (ASX). Up over 200% on each and have the option to buy another $30k in PLS for 0.38 (currently trading at 0.64). PLS is sitting on potentially the biggest lithium resource on the planet and I believe it will easily be $1 by year end. The only danger I can see is an alternative battery coming along but no sign of that on the horizon.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,995 ✭✭✭ Sabre Man


    Is future demand already priced in, or are lithium shares reasonably priced?

    How has world production and lithium prices changed over the last 5 years?

    Who can increase or are increasing production reasonably quickly?


  • Registered Users Posts: 480 ✭✭ FernandoTorres


    Couple of good articles there:

    http://www.economist.com/news/business/21688386-amid-surge-demand-rechargeable-batteries-companies-are-scrambling-supplies

    http://www.goldmansachs.com/our-thinking/pages/macroeconomic-insights-folder/what-if-i-told-you/report.pdf

    PLS for example hasn't actually sold anything yet. They're about 2 years off the start of mining but they do have a huge confirmed resource and plenty of finance. Obviously it's still all based on potential future earnings so I wouldn't be putting the life savings on it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,147 ✭✭✭ positron


    My first SELL ever - sold the 5 TSLA shares $232.50 each. I had bought them $200, and while I held them price crashed to $140 and then went up to $270 or so. About $150 "earned" and after commission, fees, tax, time wasted etc it's about three fiddy. Meh, not bad, for a learning exercise.

    In my totally worthless layman view, TSLA will go down for a few weeks until Musk announces some great news and I hope to buy these 5 shares back at around $200 again. No major profits here, just a bit of fun with degiro.


  • Registered Users Posts: 838 ✭✭✭ lucky john


    Q1 results beat expectations on some figures and inline on others so a good day. big move forward of 2 years in production ramp. can't see $200 for a while yet. more likely stable to $250. News on the battery wall production to come later but it will have to be ramped fast as well in line with car production.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,299 ✭✭✭✭ Francie Barrett


    lucky john wrote: »
    Q1 results beat expectations on some figures and inline on others so a good day. big move forward of 2 years in production ramp. can't see $200 for a while yet. more likely stable to $250. News on the battery wall production to come later but it will have to be ramped fast as well in line with car production.
    I would be very worried about the spate of senior management executives on the production side.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-04/two-tesla-production-chiefs-to-leave-ahead-of-biggest-challenge-yet


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