Tesla/Lithium stocks discussion

phantom_lord

Yep, as posted over and over, Waymo are years ahead of Tesla, despite Musk claiming the opposite.

Kilboor

phantom_lord wrote: »

Yep, as posted over and over, Waymo are years ahead of Tesla, despite Musk claiming the opposite.

Are they though? I mean your tesla you can buy in the US has a lot of self driving capabilities and Tesla have shown to be released FSD features to come. On a consumer and investment level Waymo are no threat as of yet. There is no scale, no cost analysis, no consumer demand yet so from an investment point of view no they are not way ahead.

phantom_lord

If level 5 is the goal, they're years ahead. Putting unfinished software into a car, and selling it as something it isn't doesn't make a company a leader.

Mike9832

phantom_lord wrote: »

Yep, as posted over and over, Waymo are years ahead of Tesla, despite Musk claiming the opposite.

Following this guy on Youtube

New videos every Wednesday, Saturday & Sunday of Tesla Autopilot

You guessed it, shockingly bad imo, like a learner driver left out on it's own with a few lessons.

Autopilot just seems to be a gimmick for the moment

Kilboor

Mike9832 wrote: »

Following this guy on Youtube

New videos every Wednesday, Saturday & Sunday of Tesla Autopilot

You guessed it, shockingly bad imo, like a learner driver left out on it's own with a few lessons.

Autopilot just seems to be a gimmick for the moment

honest question has tesla autopilot been built for Europe/UK road markings etc? or are they focusing on US, I didn't even realise UK could get autopilot

Mike9832

Kilboor wrote: »

honest question has tesla autopilot been built for Europe/UK road markings etc? or are they focusing on US, I didn't even realise UK could get autopilot

It's focused on the US

They sell it bundled into cars UK/Europe and charge well for it, suppose it's fair game then

Kilboor

Mike9832 wrote: »

It's focused on the US

They sell it bundled into cars UK/Europe and charge well for it, suppose it's fair game then

Definitely, I think the hope is it will eventually be optimised properly here.

It works OK in the UK, I certainly wouldn't trust it here or the UK until at least 2030, to note he does say it saved his car at one stage by swerving too

Mike9832

Kilboor wrote: »

Definitely, I think the hope is it will eventually be optimised properly here.

It works OK in the UK, I certainly wouldn't trust it here or the UK until at least 2030, to note he does say it saved his car at one stage by swerving too

It's impressive at times alright

Sabre Man

Autopilot works well in Ireland, particularly on motorways and main roads. It's not meant for city driving but can work well in that situation as well.

Here's a video from the N72 outside Mallow towards Killarney.

Sabre Man

Albemarle has just reported Q1 earnings:
https://investors.albemarle.com/static-files/9e1e2b0e-e4af-4a91-8979-bf105b8f569d

phantom_lord

Tesla's solar deployments fell once again to another multi-year low. Employment and investment have both stalled out at its Buffalo manufacturing plant and the long-awaited solar roof remains AWOL.

The company claims to remain committed to its energy segment, signaled by a steep price cut announced in Q2. Already selling at a loss, installation margins will only worsen.

Musk once contended that Tesla’s (TSLA) energy generation and storage business might one day dwarf its automotive manufacturing business. That prospect has proven increasingly fanciful with each passing quarter

The solar roof product, which Musk used to justify the 2016 takeover of SolarCity, is still in development three years later.

The government of New York handed Tesla $750 million in subsidies on the understanding that the company would employ thousands of workers and invest billions into Gigafactory 2 in Buffalo. Tesla reported a headcount of just 800 workers at the facility at the end of 2018, meaning it will almost certainly face a $41.2 million penalty for failing to meet employment requirements in April 2020

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4260665-teslas-solar-business-approaches-terminal-decline

Sabre Man

Audi e-tron customers face more delivery delays, fines for canceled orders
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-rival-audi-etron-delivery-delays-fines-canceled-orders/

Audi has rolled out a “Fast Track” system for Norway, which allows immediate delivery of the e-tron provided that reservation holders order a specific variant of the SUV. The starting price of the e-tron in the country is listed at around NOK 650,000 (around $74,000), but the “Fast Track” variant, the Audi e-tron 55 Advanced Plus, costs around NOK 840,000 (around $95,000). This, according to Lauvstad, forces reservation holders like himself to either select a more expensive version or wait several more months for the actual variant he selected.

Unfortunately, Lauvstad met an unexpected roadblock when he attempted to cancel his e-tron order. According to the reservation holder, he was informed that be would be facing a fine amounting to 8% of his order’s purchase price. “I could break the contract (or) buy a Fast Track car, but I couldn’t just break the contract. They would then have 8% (around $6,800) of the purchase price of around NOK 750,000 (around $85,000) for breach of contract.

Norwegian article:
https://www.tek.no/artikler/sto-i-ko-i-over-ett-ar-for-audi-e-tron-og-ma-vente-i-nok-et-halvar-selv-etter-at-bilen-har-kommet-i-salg/463204

That's shocking. If this was Tesla the press would be having a field day.

Kilboor

Sabre Man wrote: »

Audi e-tron customers face more delivery delays, fines for canceled orders
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-rival-audi-etron-delivery-delays-fines-canceled-orders/

Audi has rolled out a “Fast Track” system for Norway, which allows immediate delivery of the e-tron provided that reservation holders order a specific variant of the SUV. The starting price of the e-tron in the country is listed at around NOK 650,000 (around $74,000), but the “Fast Track” variant, the Audi e-tron 55 Advanced Plus, costs around NOK 840,000 (around $95,000). This, according to Lauvstad, forces reservation holders like himself to either select a more expensive version or wait several more months for the actual variant he selected.

Unfortunately, Lauvstad met an unexpected roadblock when he attempted to cancel his e-tron order. According to the reservation holder, he was informed that be would be facing a fine amounting to 8% of his order’s purchase price. “I could break the contract (or) buy a Fast Track car, but I couldn’t just break the contract. They would then have 8% (around $6,800) of the purchase price of around NOK 750,000 (around $85,000) for breach of contract.

Norwegian article:
https://www.tek.no/artikler/sto-i-ko-i-over-ett-ar-for-audi-e-tron-og-ma-vente-i-nok-et-halvar-selv-etter-at-bilen-har-kommet-i-salg/463204

That's shocking. If this was Tesla the press would be having a field day.

Crazy stuff, EV market not covering itself in glory these days.

aridion

b4bmm wrote: »

I haven't heard anyone on about Lithium on here. Has anyone invested in a Lithium company or know of any that could be of interest.

I know quite a few that have boomed over the last 12 months. Phenomenal returns 20-40X all ASX listed companies. Of course I haven't invested in them, have invested in a graphite company instead. Nowhere near the gains of these companies but as it stands on paper a good return. Holding for more.

I am seriously looking at Altura (AJM). That are available on degiro, and are ramping up production this year and next. There share price is at 0.13 cents Australian.

b4bmm

aridion wrote: »

I am seriously looking at Altura (AJM). That are available on degiro, and are ramping up production this year and next. There share price is at 0.13 cents Australian.

Why Altura above any of the others who are ramping up?

You do know that just because the share price is 13c doesn’t mean the company is valued less than a company who might have a 20c share price? It’s all based on market cap or more accurately on enterprise value.

redlead

I bought SQM last week. They have one of the biggest supplies which is cheap for them to mine. They look very cheap at the moment for a 2-5 year investment.

aridion

b4bmm wrote: »

Why Altura above any of the rest?

You do know that just because the share price is 13c doesn’t mean the company is valued less than a company who might have a 20c share price? It’s all based on market cap or more accurately on enterprise value.

I am also looking at Albemarle, Pilbara, and SQM. Lithium, if it takes off, should have capital gains across the board. The reason I have been interested in Altura is that I know a number of Australian miners who have recommended it.

There is a lot of information on the hotcopper forum for you to digest if you so wish.

And, I do know about company value and share price.

regards,
Ari

Kilboor

aridion wrote: »

I am also looking at Albemarle, Pilbara, and SQM. Lithium, if it takes off, should have capital gains across the board. The reason I have been interested in Altura is that I know a number of Australian miners who have recommended it.

There is a lot of information on the hotcopper forum for you to digest if you so wish.

And, I do know about company value and share price.

regards,
Ari

I'll add to this list with a risky bet but moving away from lithium (which I think the majority of gains pre volitality were to be found 3-5 years ago), I'd start looking at Cobalt, Copper, and Nickel instead.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2019/05/06/copper-well-positioned-to-lead-the-next-resource-cycle/#b2bd5674cff7

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2019/05/06/copper-well-positioned-to-lead-the-next-resource-cycle/#142f5e4d4cff

As for my exposure, I have been focusing on cobalt the last while. Would I recommend to get in now? Yes the price of cobalt is at definite low and prime for increase. But it is perhaps the riskiest of the battery related minerals to invest in as companies are moving away from use of cobalt in batteries due to supply and pricing.

b4bmm

aridion wrote: »

I am also looking at Albemarle, Pilbara, and SQM. Lithium, if it takes off, should have capital gains across the board. The reason I have been interested in Altura is that I know a number of Australian miners who have recommended it.

There is a lot of information on the hotcopper forum for you to digest if you so wish.

And, I do know about company value and share price.

regards,
Ari

What does "I know a number of Australian miners who have recommended it" mean?

Most of the "information" or posts on HotCopper is wrong.

I know a couple of people closely who worked on the construction of the Altura mine. Just setting aside what I have been told by those people, the company has not yet met one of its targets over the last 18 months. It is easily the worst performing lithium producer on the ASX from the perspective of them doing what they tell holders they can do in a given timeframe, let alone the huge cost blowouts over that period which has meant constant dilution to holders.

Read any AJM company announcements over that period and let me know if I'm wrong, you will be hard pushed.
Does that mean that will continue forever, not necessarily, but I won't be the one risking my money to find out if they can turn it around given the horrid past onsite performance.

Kilboor wrote: »

I'll add to this list with a risky bet but moving away from lithium (which I think the majority of gains pre volitality were to be found 3-5 years ago), I'd start looking at Cobalt, Copper, and Nickel instead.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2019/05/06/copper-well-positioned-to-lead-the-next-resource-cycle/#b2bd5674cff7

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2019/05/06/copper-well-positioned-to-lead-the-next-resource-cycle/#142f5e4d4cff

As for my exposure, I have been focusing on cobalt the last while. Would I recommend to get in now? Yes the price of cobalt is at definite low and prime for increase. But it is perhaps the riskiest of the battery related minerals to invest in as companies are moving away from use of cobalt in batteries due to supply and pricing.

I invested in a cobalt company. I may have tipped it on here.
It has been the subject of a takeover offer which the board recommended.
NZC is the ticker on the ASX.

Cobalt is no different than lithium from a price point of view, both have been hammered.
Lithium has more supply coming online because there are more lithium projects that are viable in good locations i.e low sovereign risk and
because the demand is ramping faster than Cobalt.

What is your preferred cobalt exposure?

Nzuri was and still is the only cobalt play on the ASX that had any hope of making it to production.
Then you have all the other garbage on the ASX that are built on hype, (AUZ, ARL and a host of others that went through the roof with little substance without cobalt was selling for north of $70kt, CLQ could prob be put in here too) none of which Nzuri had while I was a holder unfortunately.
People (HotCopper commentators) always think bigger is better which often isn't the case and they are bag holding now afraid to admit they were wrong, sell and move on.

Cobalt isn't sustainable at those prices.
DRC is cobalt. Its just too risky a place to be.
Tesla only uses sorting like 3% cobalt in its batteries.
Glencore can manipulate the market as it please just by giving a guidance figure that they will never meet. Any projects outside DRC are likely not viable with low cobalt pricing. I also would likely not hold any stocks focused on DRC or even Africa for the most part in general again. Have been burnt too many times.
Ivanhoe might be an exception to that and some select gold plays.

Kilboor

b4bmm wrote: »

What does "I know a number of Australian miners who have recommended it" mean?

Most of the "information" or posts on HotCopper is wrong.

I know a couple of people closely who worked on the construction of the Altura mine. Just setting aside what I have been told by those people, the company has not yet met one of its targets over the last 18 months. It is easily the worst performing lithium producer on the ASX from the perspective of them doing what they tell holders they can do in a given timeframe, let alone the huge cost blowouts over that period which has meant constant dilution to holders.

Read any AJM company announcements over that period and let me know if I'm wrong, you will be hard pushed.
Does that mean that will continue forever, not necessarily, but I won't be the one risking my money to find out if they can turn it around given the horrid past onsite performance.




I invested in a cobalt company. I may have tipped it on here.
It has been the subject of a takeover offer which the board recommended.
NZC is the ticker on the ASX.

Cobalt is no different than lithium from a price point of view, both have been hammered.
Lithium has more supply coming online because there are more lithium projects that are viable in good locations i.e low sovereign risk and
because the demand is ramping faster than Cobalt.

What is your preferred cobalt exposure?

Nzuri was and still is the only cobalt play on the ASX that had any hope of making it to production.
Then you have all the other garbage on the ASX that are built on hype, (AUZ, ARL and a host of others that went through the roof with little substance without cobalt was selling for north of $70kt, CLQ could prob be put in here too) none of which Nzuri had while I was a holder unfortunately.
People (HotCopper commentators) always think bigger is better which often isn't the case and they are bag holding now afraid to admit they were wrong, sell and move on.

Cobalt isn't sustainable at those prices.
DRC is cobalt. Its just too risky a place to be.
Tesla only uses sorting like 3% cobalt in its batteries.
Glencore can manipulate the market as it please just by giving a guidance figure that they will never meet. Any projects outside DRC are likely not viable with low cobalt pricing. I also would likely not hold any stocks focused on DRC or even Africa for the most part in general again. Have been burnt too many times.
Ivanhoe might be an exception to that and some select gold plays.

My Cobalt exposure is ASX:BAR, my riskiest investment venture without a doubt however the project has a sizable yield and is purely located in Australia which avoids the African trap. BAR are also involved in Gold Mining so there's some bit of security. For me it doesn't make sense not to jump on them.

Some good analysis there as well thank you.

littlevillage

redlead wrote: »

I bought SQM last week. They have one of the biggest supplies which is cheap for them to mine. They look very cheap at the moment for a 2-5 year investment.

SQM are somewhere near a 12 Month low, and have a great dividend, about 6%. Only downside is their Lithium supply is Brine based. This seems to be lower grade than Hard rock...and the lucrative EV battery production industry favours the higher grade lithium from Hard rock sources. But a solid purchase nonetheless IMO.

Most analysts seem to plumb for Albemarle if you ever read any competitive analysis of both these Lithium giants. Albemarle are also just about at 12 Month low now too. Dividend is only about 2% however.

(I have small holdings of both which I topped up in the past week) Hopefully a big jump over the next couple of years for both....and a dividend that easily beats bank deposit rates....til we get there. :cool:

b4bmm

littlevillage wrote: »

SQM are somewhere near a 12 Month low, and have a great dividend, about 6%. Only downside is their Lithium supply is Brine based. This seems to be lower grade than Hard rock...and the lucrative EV battery production industry favours the higher grade lithium from Hard rock sources. But a solid purchase nonetheless IMO.

Most analysts seem to plumb for Albemarle if you ever read any competitive analysis of both these Lithium giants. Albemarle are also just about at 12 Month low now too. Dividend is only about 2% however.

(I have small holdings of both which I topped up in the past week) Hopefully a big jump over the next couple of years for both....and a dividend that easily beats bank deposit rates....til we get there. :cool:

I don’t think anyone is getting a better price for a lithium product than SQM currently, certainly not ALB.

Brine is more amenable to covert to lithium carbonate while hard rock is amenable to both chemicals. To convert brines to lithium hydroxide involves an extra processing step which Means extra costs for converters.

This is the general line of thought regarding lithium conversion but it’s not a cookie cutter approach from either the producers or processors. Processors want long term stable supply because if they need to chop and change raw materials it will affect the processing and in turn the recoveries/bottom line.

Carbonate is used in a wide variety of applications such as cars, electric buses, ships and ESS etc. , whereas hydroxide is more favourable for high demand batteries like long range/high performing EVs.

China’s new policies have swing things back in balance a bit again so carbonate pricing has flatlined and likely bottomed and hydroxide is falling a bit.

Kilboor

Propaganda from China:

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3010200/china-cracks-cheap-lithium-production-electric-car-breakthrough?fbclid=IwAR2DwiOJeIlp0QmnrnOwNOS4A_O_sZpqK3hUuI_MQMgJVe8Z4Gn2U49bIv4

phantom_lord

Other companies are investing billions into self-driving car, meanwhile over at Tesla

https://electrek.co/2019/05/16/tesla-hardcore-cost-cutting-elon-musk/

How are people expecting these guys to win the race?

phantom_lord

Oh, and autopilot decapitated another driver by driving into a truck

https://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2019/05/ntsb-autopilot-engaged-at-time-of-fatal-florida-tesla-crash/

As in the May 2016 Florida crash that killed Joshua Brown, it seems the Tesla’s camera and non-LIDAR sensors did not pick up the trailer crossing the road directly in front of it

Robotaxis secured.

Kilboor

phantom_lord wrote: »

Other companies are investing billions into self-driving car, meanwhile over at Tesla

https://electrek.co/2019/05/16/tesla-hardcore-cost-cutting-elon-musk/

How are people expecting these guys to win the race?

They might not win the race but for consumer sales and self driving to a mass market they are winning. Fundamental.

phantom_lord

Putting out a limited level 3 isn't winning.

Sabre Man

The NTSB said the driver engaged Autopilot about 10 seconds before crashing into a semitrailer and did not have his hands on the wheel for nearly eight seconds before the crash. The driver was traveling about 60 miles per hour and neither the system nor the driver made any evasive maneuvers, the agency said.

It seems the driver wasn't paying attention at all.

Kilboor

phantom_lord wrote: »

Putting out a limited level 3 isn't winning.

Who else has consumer limited level 3 out?

b4bmm

Sabre Man wrote: »

The NTSB said the driver engaged Autopilot about 10 seconds before crashing into a semitrailer and did not have his hands on the wheel for nearly eight seconds before the crash. The driver was traveling about 60 miles per hour and neither the system nor the driver made any evasive maneuvers, the agency said.

It seems the driver wasn't paying attention at all.

Our phantom friend telling semi truths again.
Poor chap.