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Winter 2019/2020 - General Discussion

1…2829313334…44

Comments

  • #1502
    Thelonious Monk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,478 ✭✭✭✭Thelonious Monk


    Feels warm af today but Spring is a long way away. I was freezing my arse off until the end of June last year so we've a long way to go yet.


  • #1503
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Longer term forecast for first half of Feb c/o EC ensemble run:

    QILqfI3.gif

    Quiet at first, but more unsettled and potentially quite stormy towards the middle third of month.

    New Moon



  • #1504
    Naggdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭Naggdefy


    Mortelaro wrote: »
    It surely couldn't have been your first winter that you didn't see a single flake? There were many in the 90's!

    I was going through all winters in my head. Now I'm 325m asl.

    All 80s had snow. 88/89 brought some in February. It was the least snowy, very mild. Cold Spring.

    89/90 was mild. We got a dusting in December mid month.

    1990/91 a few falls. Notably Dec 8th, Jan 8th, Feb 5-9.

    1991/1992. November falls. And December Christmas week.

    1992/1993. Snow around 8th January, was a Monday.

    1993/94. Christmas 1993 and mid February 1994.

    1994/95. A dusting on a wintry shower Christmas day. A very mild winter.

    1995/96. Christmas time. Late January 1996. February 1996 few throughout the month. Small falls.

    1996/97. November 19 1996. NYE. First 10 days of Jan.

    1997/98. One small fall about 7-10 days before Christmas. I was at a neighbour's funeral in a snowy graveyard.

    1998/1999. A fall in February. Followed by a quick thaw the same day.

    Winters like 1988-89, 1989-90, 1991-92, 1994/95, 1997/98 and 1998/99 did not see snowfall at lower level to the best of my memory. Snow fell in March and April 1989, April 1990, March 1995, Good Friday 1998 (GFA agreement).


  • #1505
    appledrop
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,047 ✭✭✭appledrop


    It was lovely + mild at last today!

    I'm a cold creature so roll on spring.


  • #1506
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,180 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Yeah we had snow Monday

    That will do, 12c plus from now would be nice.

    February is Spring...ish


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  • #1507
    Cork Boy 53
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,829 ✭✭✭Cork Boy 53


    pauldry wrote: »
    Yeah we had snow Monday

    That will do, 12c plus from now would be nice.

    February is Spring...ish

    No it`s not.


  • #1508
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,072 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Very mild fresh SW'ly tonight here in Kerry, 11.8C and quite humid feeling. Kind of pleasant really, been such a change to the weather at the beginning of the week , spring like today.


  • #1509
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,207 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Status Yellow - Wind warning for Donegal, Galway, Mayo, Sligo and Clare

    Southwest winds, veering westerly will reach mean speeds of 50-65km/h, with gusts up to 100km/h on Friday evening, Friday night and for a time on Saturday.

    Valid: 17:00 Friday 31/01/2020 to 12:00 Saturday 01/02/2020

    Issued: 09:00 Friday 31/01/20


  • #1510
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,229 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    pauldry wrote: »
    Yeah we had snow Monday
    WE DIDN'T!


  • #1511
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    typhoony wrote: »
    both GFS and ECM want to relocate the Arctic to NE Canada and NE US.

    someone one told me that we get their cold a week after they get theirs

    How do you explain the winter of 2013/14 then? Talk about nonsense.

    Roll on summer.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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  • #1512
    US2
    Registered Users Posts: 2,651 ✭✭✭US2


    The stretch is back , sunsets after 5pm now. 15 more days and itll be bright till after 6pm. February is one of my favourite months, your just coming out of winter, seeing things come back to life and daydreaming of beautiful summer days .


  • #1513
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,965 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    US2 wrote: »
    The stretch is back , sunsets after 5pm now. 15 more days and itll be bright till after 6pm. February is one of my favourite months, your just coming out of winter, seeing things come back to life and daydreaming of beautiful summer days .

    you could be in luck again this February. The middle 2 weeks of February do look quite unsettled but mild, however there are signals that the final week of February could develop high pressure from the south, if that was to happen and if winds were light up from Spain or Canarys we could potentially see temperatures reaching 15 or 16C in spells of sunshine and feeling very spring like. The more easterly that southerly wind becomes, would lower the temperatures more and more.

    The final week of February is well off beyond FI, there is every possibility we could see the closing days of February in a similar settled spell as last year, just perhaps not as overly warm as last February, that would take some serious beating.


  • #1514
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,965 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    WE DIDN'T!

    Very few people saw snow on Monday, it was mainly restricted to high ground above 200 meters in the north-west and parts of Northern Ireland. Most of the west had either cold rain or sleet showers.


  • #1515
    US2
    Registered Users Posts: 2,651 ✭✭✭US2


    Gonzo wrote: »
    you could be in luck again this February. The middle 2 weeks of February do look quite unsettled but mild, however there are signals that the final week of February could develop high pressure from the south, if that was to happen and if winds were light up from Spain or Canarys we could potentially see temperatures reaching 15 or 16C in spells of sunshine and feeling very spring like. The more easterly that southerly wind becomes, would lower the temperatures more and more.

    The final week of February is well off beyond FI, there is every possibility we could see the closing days of February in a similar settled spell as last year, just perhaps not as overly warm as last February, that would take some serious beating.

    Temperatures dont bother me that much, it's more about the sunlight. Last February was exceptionally warm but not very enjoyable with the strong breeze.


  • #1516
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,963 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    If an active jet is algined in a north west south east axis, we could get spells of colder weather in between passing systems. Is that what Typhoony meant?
    Anyway i'm not ready for Summer. If we do get very mild temperatures to end February, it's almost a guarantee that we will pay for it later on into Spring.


  • #1517
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,965 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    nacho libre wrote: »
    If an active jet is algined in a north west south east axis, we could get spells of colder weather in between passing systems. Is that what Typhoony meant?
    Anyway i'm not ready for Summer. If we do get very mild temperatures to end February, it's almost a guarantee that we will pay for it later on into Spring.

    I think we will get some cold in Spring too, but hopefully it doesn't stick around and ruin the early part of summer either. The depth of cold that's been locked across the pole, Iceland and the northern fringes of Scandinavia all winter has to go somewhere. The PV will weaken eventually, although no signs of that as of yet. I think February will deliver very little if any snow away from high ground in the west and north-west but snow could still happen in March of even April, even if it's very short lived or transitional. With the exception of 2009 and 2010, most years we seem to see more snow in Spring than in Winter.


  • #1518
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Those little streamer type showers moving through S. Connacht at the moment are certainly more potent than they look. Brought a rate of almost 50mm/h here as it passed through. Came out of nowhere. Reminded me of the rain we had back in late July and August last year.

    New Moon



  • #1519
    Donegal Storm
    Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Same up here earlier, was pouring down for a while so I had a look at the radar and there was nothing more than light drizzly stuff being shown

    Thought the stretch in the evening was really noticeable today though, first day since the Autumn I got home from work in relative daylight.


  • #1520
    stevek93
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,093 ✭✭✭stevek93


    Violently windy here Dublin 5 no warning from Met Erieann?


  • #1521
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,229 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    stevek93 wrote: »
    Violently windy here Dublin 5 no warning from Met Erieann?

    Can't see any windspeeds that qualify as even yellow criteria, Dublin airport gusting to 28kts (51km/h) at 1:30 and Casement to 35kts (65km/h). Yellow criteria is gusts between 90km/h and 110km/h.


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  • #1522
    ZX7R
    Registered Users Posts: 3,428 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    Very mild yesterday evening,it felt even warm.
    A lovely spin home on the motorcycle last night.
    Yellow wind warning for parts of the west


  • #1523
    ZX7R
    Registered Users Posts: 3,428 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    Don't know where to post this question,
    If our seasons are based roughly on temperature trends from statistics.
    If there was a major change in the statistics say in the next 50 years.
    Could the meteorological seasons change
    Is certain months became colder or warmer.
    It was a long boring night in work last night, it's amazing what can go through your head.


  • #1524
    Donegal Storm
    Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Looking at this mornings models all I can say is roll on Spring, nothing but Atlantic wind and rain forecast for the first half of the month


  • #1525
    snaps
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    The winter here in Central Europe has been non existent this season. Only 3 weeks of winterish weather, which happened over christmas and new year.
    Currently in south and western Poland's big cities its 16-18c. Even here in the mountains its 14c.

    The poor ski resorts have spent so much money making snow, its become to the point where they have to make a decision to stop as the costs outweigh the income.

    Our neighbours even have their livestock out. Usually in Jan and Feb there is 50cm+ snow lying.

    We were at the top of our village yesterday, 1450mASL. There is snow, about 30cm laying around and +5c. Normally over 2 meters at that height.

    Not only is the warmth a problem its the fact its so dry. We barely have any precipitation of any sorts.


  • #1526
    Mortelaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    Gusting to 80kmh in Arklow westerly


  • #1527
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    2m temperature (anomaly) outlook out to mid -February from this morning's EC mean run:

    fpjf4WQ.gif

    N. Atlantic cooling down suggesting that a classic 'zonal' pattern will set in towards mid-month.

    New Moon



  • #1528
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,072 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Sign of a relatively mild winter, had to cut the grass today, a lot of growth during the mild few days this week . Cut it around the same time as last year.

    Got up to 10.6C and currently 6.6C


  • #1529
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,965 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    We had a very mild January overall, perhaps one of the mildest January's of the past decade. Dunsany finished January with 55.1mm of rain, making it the dryest month since July 2019 and an indicator that the prolonged deluge spell of August-early December is behind us.

    What is not behind us is the mild and extremely zonal winter. Dunsany finished with a mean temperature of 5.8C which is 1.2C above the average. During the incredibly mild winter of 2018/2019, Dunsany finished with a 5.0C January, so this January has well beaten last winters January in terms of warmth.

    I don't think this winter will beat last winter for overall mild as December this year finished with 5.6C which is 0.5C above average, but that pales in comparison to December 2018 which finished with a balmy 7.6C. February 2018 finished with a 7.0C, more than 2C above average.

    We would need this February to be even warmer to stand any chance of beating last winter for overall warmth and I don't think we will do it. However I still think this February will be a milder than average month, making this winter another very mild but not record breaking mild winter.


  • #1530
    esposito
    Registered Users Posts: 1,394 ✭✭✭esposito


    New York has seen very little snow and is unusually mild this winter. So it’s not just Europe that’s been very mild. Wouldn’t be surprised if the east coast of US gets a major arctic outbreak in the next few weeks though.


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  • #1531
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,965 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    esposito wrote: »
    New York has seen very little snow and is unusually mild this winter. So it’s not just Europe that’s been very mild. Wouldn’t be surprised if the east coast of US gets a major arctic outbreak in the next few weeks though.

    most places in the typical northern hemisphere winter zone have been much milder than usual, that includes most of Europe, Russia from the European side to the far east near Alaska and eastern half of north America. Western Canada and probably parts of western US have been below average a fair bit. Very little has changed since over the past 2 months with the mild just going on and on.


  • #1532
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Rebelbrowser wrote: »
    From an Irish Times article last year chronicling snow events...


    "1917: The most severe snowfalls of this century and probably of the last two centuries occurred. On January 24th, large quantities of rain, sleet and snow accompanied the southeasterly gale in the south of Ireland.

    At Ballinacurra near Cork the measurement (of snow when melted) on the 24th was 52mm and on the 25th, 19mm. At Seskin the total amount of snow on the 25th and 26th yielded, when melted, 47mm of water. On the 25th, the wind strengthened to a gale in the south of Ireland, when there were heavy falls of snow covering the ground to 30cm or more, with drifts of 300cm or more.

    Over a large area of Ireland railway traffic was stopped owing to the heavy snow. During the period January 28th-February 3rd, the low maximum temperatures prevented the snow which had fallen during the preceding week from thawing to any considerable extent. Little fresh snow fell during the week. East Clare experienced a great snowstorm on April 1st. Snow on level ground lay to a depth of 46cm..."

    I wrote extensively about Winter 1916-17 and its snow events around this time last year in the stats thread: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057714322&page=61

    January snowstorm was a case of low pressure from the southwest coming up against a cold push of air from the east via a Scandinavian High whilst April one was a deep low forming within an exceptionally cold airmass that originated from the north. No exaggeration to say that the country got absolutely pasted with snow from both of these, especially the west and south unusually compared to other infamous Irish blizzards like 1947, 1962 and 1982.

    That snowfall in Ireland document that Met Éireann released in 2012 is a great read and all but I have found it's missing a lot of info or events that have also occurred which I think warrant a mention.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #1533
    ZX7R
    Registered Users Posts: 3,428 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    I read yours also,
    Had to believe how people were able to manage.


  • #1534
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,693 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    Windy enough in cork city this evening, some strong gusts hitting the house.


  • #1535
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    3BZLZLn.png

    New Moon



  • #1536
    Pangea
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Windy here in Donegal too, wasn't expecting it to be this rough


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  • #1537
    Hooter23
    Registered Users Posts: 1,526 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    Potential big storms from next weekend onwards...have to wait and see how big and how close they come though


  • #1538
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Hooter23 wrote: »
    Potential big storms from next weekend onwards...have to wait and see how big and how close they come though

    Pity this is 10 days out.

    bfTc4E2.png

    A good old days sort of storm.

    New Moon



  • #1539
    refusetolose
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,559 ✭✭✭refusetolose


    https://twitter.com/metjeffuk/status/1224122748349435907


  • #1540
    Andrew00
    Registered Users Posts: 2,484 ✭✭✭Andrew00


    Cor blimey


  • #1541
    km79
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 48,254 ✭✭✭✭km79


    Cracking day in the west


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  • #1542
    Graces7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Yellow wind warning; usual areas...


  • #1543
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    GFS has a once in decade type storm at 216hrs

    Certainly going to turn very turbulent from later this coming weekend


  • #1544
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Blowy

    210-289UK.GIF?03-6


  • #1545
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Latest GFS run has the Arctic Osculation (AO) index going off the scale:

    LaveK1Z.png

    (big dots = latest run / smaller dots = previous runs)

    ECM is showing something tamer with each run however, but still well above +6.0 as it is:

    oNnNlP9.png

    New Moon



  • #1546
    Goldfinch8
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 529 ✭✭✭Goldfinch8


    Plenty of well defined tops of shower clouds on view in the west this eve with a nice orange hue on the cloud tops to the north that caught the late afternoon sun. Certainly has got colder and would expect some wintriness on the mountains if they catch a few showers tonight.
    3c currently in this part of Mayo.


  • #1547
    schizo1014
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 307 ✭✭schizo1014


    Some thunder and lightning here in South Donegal just there out over Donegal Bay it looked like.


  • #1548
    Pangea
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Lots of thunder and ligthening here in Donegal earlier


  • #1549
    Monkeynut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 590 ✭✭✭Monkeynut


    Sleety_Rain wrote: »
    No comment

    192-289UK.GIF?03-18



    My god there is no black.


    Looks like joker from the dark knight to me.

    Black mouth surrounded by red, blue eyes, green/yellow hair.


  • #1550
    Graces7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    A wild loud night out here in the ocean. Chilly too. Ah here comes more drumming.


  • #1551
    jimmynokia
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,467 ✭✭✭jimmynokia


    Apparently bad weather next Monday???


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