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Winter 2019/2020 - General Discussion

  • 18-08-2019 10:31am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭


    I think it's time for this thread to appear again, 1 day earlier than last year.

    Our summer hasn't quite lived up to that of 2018 but it hasn't been the worst either, hopefully some Indian summer heat will make an appearance in the coming weeks. I think most would then be comfortable with a swift turn towards proper Autumnal weather.

    Please post any thoughts/predictions/ideas on what Winter 2019/2020 may bring to us here.

    Hopefully we see something more seasonal than last Winter this time around! ;)


«13456744

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭esposito


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    I think it's time for this thread to appear again, 1 day earlier than last year.

    Our summer hasn't quite lived up to that of 2018 but it hasn't been the worst either, hopefully some Indian summer heat will make an appearance in the coming weeks. I think most would then be comfortable with a swift turn towards proper Autumnal weather.

    Please post any thoughts/predictions/ideas on what Winter 2019/2020 may bring to us here.

    Hopefully we see something more seasonal than last Winter this time around! ;)

    I’m not going to say much as it’s too early but all I’ll say is I’m not getting my hopes up about this winter.

    Last year I got my hopes up about a colder than average winter but as we all know that did not materialise.

    I think it’s best for us all (cold and snow lovers!) not to expect much and then we might be pleasantly surprised.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,033 ✭✭✭irishrover99


    And people complain about Christmas been advertised to early 😀.
    Talking about Winter in the middle of August should be banned.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,188 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    I learnt my lesson last winter and won't get fooled again!
    The solar minimum, a SSW or charts beyond +120/144 are just a waste of time and energy and are meaningless for our little island.
    Lets just expect the usual 1040hpa Iberia/Euro/Azores high from Dec-Feb and then there will be no disappointment!


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,002 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    I'm not getting my hopes up for a snowy winter but I do think we may see more of the white stuff this winter compared to last winter, which was exceptional in terms of the relentless mild and then a feeling of summer end of February.

    I'll be keeping everything crossed for at least a few days of an easterly this winter.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,503 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    No way can the coming winter be as benign as the most recent one


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,029 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Well my prediction is it won't be as bad as last year! I'm not getting my hopes up but I feel we may get some sort of decent cold spell. Or maybe another 2013-14 but less extreme at worst (still better than 2018-19 though)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,682 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Well to start looking ahead, I think I should look back at 2018-19 and compare what I said in the forecast with reality.
    Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies

    The Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue to show this strange profile of cold-warm-cold-warm in the North Atlantic with the cold anomalies forming the shape of a horseshoe which has been the case since Spring generally. This is not favourable for a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) going strictly by the SSTs alone as they would have to be warmer around Greenland to do so. In case you do not know, the NAO is an index showing the difference in mean sea level pressure between the Icelandic Low and Azores High, two elements which make up the normal zonal pattern for western Europe. A positive NAO involves both of these elements being strong and normally translate to mild, wet conditions in Winter time whilst a negative NAO involves both of these elements either being weak or sometimes, non-existent as the pattern can completely reverse, which usually translate to cold conditions in Winter. This is not always the case with either side of the NAO index as there have been instances of cold conditions with positive NAO just as much as mild conditions with negative NAO. Every Winter since and including 2013-14 has had a positive NAO which has been one of the reasons why Winter hasn't been particularly cold recently and sometimes, record mild or wet as such happened in 2013-14 and 2015-16. Summer has been the opposite for most years since 2007 with every Summer since bar 2013 and now 2018 having a negative NAO. In fact, Summer 2018 was record breakingly positive. Will Winter 2018-19 see a similar flip to negative NAO? Not very likely given the Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies though not impossible. I did an analogue on Winters following very positive NAO Summers and in fact, the signal was strong for an Atlantic driven Winter. Therefore from this point of view, there is an increased chance of a mild, wet Winter.

    This point completely verified. The Atlantic SSTs favoured a positive NAO despite models strongly going for a -NAO. However, I note that I said it increases the chance of a mild, wet winter. Last winter was quite unique in that regard with it being anomalously mild but dry. Mild winters tend to be unsettled and a mild, dry winter is relatively uncommon especially to the extent of mild that last winter delivered (which was the mildest on record for multiple long-term Irish stations including Valentia Observatory and Phoenix Park). I think it was also unusual given how we only recently had an anticyclonic and mild winter which was 2016-17. The run of +NAO winters since 2013-14 continued despite periods of -NAO at the end of October and mid-November 2018.

    A completely different story this year with the opposite North Atlantic SST profile to that of 2018. It has been an extremely blocked season in the high latitudes with records set for -NAO for May to July 2019 including the longest run of consecutive -NAO days on record for any season. Once locked into a certain kind of blocked pattern, it can be a tough puppy to budge. We've seen all sorts of blocked patterns this decade and it has led to some extreme seasons whether it's the very wet summer of 2012, freezing cold Nov/Dec 2010 spells, very cold March of 2013 or summer drought of 2018 for example. I am going slightly off topic here to North Atlantic SSTs but these blocked patterns are theorised to be the result of a meridional jet stream forced either by low solar activity or a smaller temperature gradient between the pole and the tropics. Will we see this -NAO continue into the coming winter as a result? What goes on right now does not mean anything historically as there have been very -NAO summers before followed by +NAO winters, 2011 sticks out like a sore thumb in that department and 2011-12 was indeed one of Ireland's mildest winters on record. However, there is an increased chance of North Atlantic SSTs favouring -NAO compared to 2018.
    The stratosphere

    One thing that could be conducive to a negative NAO regardless of the sea surface temperatures is a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event. A sudden stratospheric warming event is where observed temperatures within the stratosphere rise by a few tens of degrees within a short period of time thus why it's so-called "sudden", and the zonal winds in the stratosphere reverse to east compared to how they normally travel in a westerly flow. The impacts of these sudden stratospheric warming events include the risk of intense northern blocking over the Arctic and an increased chance of easterly winds for Ireland. There is no guarantee with them as it depends on the positioning of the high pressure and also the type of SSW. These impacts are felt in the troposphere around 9 days minimum after the initial SSW event. Sudden stratospheric warming events are normally favoured around the transition from easterly to westerly QBO as such happened in the Winters of 2012-13 and 1984-85. This does not necessarily mean we'll see one this Winter as it is based on history and SSW events do not follow patterns. I was confident on one occurring in 2017-18 because we hadn't seen a mid-Winter major SSW since 2013 then. This forecast verified albeit the SSW occurred in February rather than in January of what I originally thought. The CFS model has kept toying with the idea of a SSW sometime in December this Winter and the GFS ensembles recently have shown some instances of minor warming events through December similar in style to December 2017. With this, it's more of a wait and see than what you can necessarily predict. If one does end up occurring, you could say there is the risk of a potent cold spell at some point during the season. Pay close attention to the stratosphere watch thread if you're interested in monitoring the stratosphere.

    Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

    The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is an index that reflects the variation of the zonal winds in the stratosphere above the equator. These winds travel in a belt around the planet and change direction approximately every 14 months. It is said to be among the most regular phenomena on earth but as 2016-17 showed, this is not always the case, when the QBO was meant to go into an easterly phase. There was an upward displacement of the westerly phase in early 2016 which cutoff the normal downward propagation of the easterly phase and 2016-17 was a second successful westerly QBO Winter. We are transitioning to the westerly phase of the QBO after being in the easterly QBO phase since mid-2017, which should increase the chances of a milder and wetter Winter but there have been cold Winters with westerly QBO (for example, 1978-79) before as much as mild Winters with easterly QBO (for example, 2007-08). There is a time lag before the westerly QBO makes full impact on the weather conditions and one thing that can break this impact before arrival is the occurrence of a SSW event but again no guarantee as described above.

    I repeatedly (as did others in the weather community online) mentioned the possibility of a SSW event in December 2018 given how frequent it was signaled by the long range CFS. I mention how we were going into the westerly phase of the QBO and one of the things that could have broken the impact would be a SSW event. However, the SSW of Dec 2018/Jan 2019 was a nSSW so it failed to downward propagate and was the first of its kind since February 2008 following an unusual run of polar vortex split events; Jan 2009, Feb 2010, Jan 2013 and Feb 2018. I didn't put much weight on the QBO as I personally think there is too much historical variance to take it as a good teleconnection for winter but 2018-19 was another mild westerly QBO season that showed its sign well and truly by February with a record strong polar vortex and a very mild period.

    The easterly QBO has already started to appear at the top end of the atmosphere and is expected to gradually propagate downwards through the autumn and winter. This is currently not likely to be a full on easterly QBO winter but rather a transitional one. I will be looking at past examples of such for updates that I post and see if a trend appears.
    Eurasian snow cover advancement through October

    Eurasian snow cover extent through October 2018 was slower than recent years but still relatively above average according to the snow advancement index by Cohen. Comparable years to October 2018 in terms of Eurasian snow cover going by the index include 2010-11, 2004-05, 2000-01, 1999-00, 1996-97, 1982-83, 1978-79 and 1973-74. My analogue of these years showed there is above average heights over and just to the south of Greenland with below average heights in the central North Atlantic into southern and central Europe – even into the east of Europe. This leaves us pulling in north to northeasterly winds. This would be a cold Winter if it were to verify with snow potential.

    This part of the forecast did not verify at all. Eastern and central Europe had a severe snowy spell in early January 2019 but otherwise, it wasn't a snowy winter.
    El Niño-Southern Oscillation

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an irregular index with variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The warming phase is known as El Niño whilst the cooling phase is known as La Niña. Southern Oscillation is the accompanying atmospheric component coupled with the sea temperature change. These phases of ENSO have various impacts on weather patterns around the world but the impacts from it on Europe are unknown due to event to event variation. However, it has been said that El Niño increases the chances of cold later in the Winter whilst La Niña does the opposite of increasing the chances of cold earlier in the Winter. Examples of El Niño Winters doing this include 2014-15 (where February was the coldest of the Winter with a frosty spell during the first half) and 1977-78 (where February produced a severe cold spell with one of the worst blizzards on record to hit the West Country). An example of a La Niña Winter doing this includes 2010-11 (where November/December produced some of the coldest weather on record to occur so early in the Winter including the coldest December on record for most). However there are many odd ones out. For instance, you only have to go back to last year for La Niña and February 2018 was the coldest of the Winter. There has been talks of an El Niño Modoki for 2018-19 rather than a traditional El Niño event. Most of the time, warming occurs in ENSO regions 1+2 but sometimes, you can have another type of El Niño called a Modoki. With this type of El Niño, the warming is focused on the central part of the Equatorial Pacific i.e. ENSO region 3.4. The CFSv2 continues to forecast an El Niño for Winter 2018-19 with the model now showing the possibility of moderate El Niño conditions but this is kind of an outside chance at the moment as it will have been very late for such an ENSO event to occur and the model forecasts a slight drop off in early 2019 too into weak threshold. The overall reanalysis of El Niño Modoki Winters in the past show above average heights over Greenland with below average heights to the southeast of us drawing in an easterly or northeasterly flow and is a clear cold signal. Mind you, this is no guarantee as there were some El Niño Modoki Winters that were mild and or wet such as 1994-95 (the wettest on record for a good part of Ireland before 2013-14) but the majority were cold. The most recent example of an El Niño Modoki occurred in Winter 2009-10. Will we see a similar Winter for 2018-19? Very unlikely, that was the coldest Winter since 1978-79 after all but not impossible! As this will be an El Niño Winter, it is more likely to start off mild with an increased risk of cold later.

    In the end, there was no El Niño Modoki at all for 2018-19 despite models hinting at one with the warmth tending to be over to the east Pacific near South America. The El Niño event that did occur was more traditional but also very weak in nature (almost similarly weak to that of the weak La Niña in 2016-17). I haven't posted in the ENSO thread for a long time because it's just been stable generally with El Niño in a weak state although it has since disappeared since early summer and now the east Pacific is in a much cooler state. Models going for ENSO neutral for 2019-20 right now. We haven't had an ENSO neutral winter since 2013-14; 2014-15 was weak El Niño, 2015-16 was very strong El Niño, 2016-17 was weak La Niña, 2017-18 was weak La Niña and 2018-19 was weak El Niño. Rather than starting a new ENSO season thread, I'll post in the 2018-19 one.
    Analogues

    At last, I'll discuss my final analogues. The years that cropped up most in my analogues for this Winter are 1941-42, 1963-64, 1979-80, 1994-95, 1996-97, 2010-11, 1901-02, 1940-41, 1968-69, 1987-88, 1995-96, 2001-02, 2008-09 and 1990-91. As to be expected, this batch of years is mixed in terms of their Winter conditions. 1901-02 had an unremarkable December and January whilst February was quite cold. 1940-41 and 1941-42 were cold Winters with some potent cold spells particularly in January of both years. 1963-64 was exceptionally dry and quiet. 1968-69 had a White Christmas and a severely cold February with a mild January despite the NAO and AO being negative then; it was also an extremely cold Winter for parts of Eurasia. 1979-80 was generally on the mild side with a rather wet December though January was a bit cooler. 1987-88 was a very mild and wet Winter and the start of the cluster of three notoriously mild Winters. 1990-91 was changeable with a fairly cool but unsettled December, an anticyclonic January after a stormy start and a cold February with a very cold spell near the start of the month. In terms of the methodology given, 1990-91 provides the most similarities to 2018-19. 1995-96 had an extremely cold spell at the end of December whilst most of January was very mild and dull (dullest January on record for several places) and February was cold, wet and snowy but sunny; a bit of an unusual combination. 1996-97 was a front loaded Winter with a cold spell during the second half of December into the first part of January including some ice days but the rest of January tended to be milder and February was a wet, mild, stormy month. 2001-02 had the sunniest December on record with mainly dry and cool conditions due to frost later on whilst January and February tended to be stormy and mild. 2008-09 had a cold spell at the end of December and start of January with severe frost but spells of sunshine rather than snow along with a very snowy spell at the beginning of February but became milder in the second half. 2010-11 contained two severe and unprecedented cold spells at the start of December (continuing on from end of November) and again from mid-December to St. Stephen's Day. When you put all these years together, you get well above average heights right over the top of Greenland with a trough of below average heights just to the west of Iberia. In this scenario, the mean wind direction is easterly and with cold air coming in from the east across the relatively warm Irish Sea, there would be instances of lake-effect snow. The intensity would depend on the potency of the cold air and the exact state of the sea surface temperatures.

    Verdict

    What is the final verdict from all of what I described above? What do I think is likely? Well, the signs from my analogues and long range models are very compelling aren't they for a cold Winter. However, I just don't think it will be as straightforward as some would interpret from these. I don't think this will be a classic cold Winter. Rather, I think a changeable Winter is more likely similar in vein to 2017-18 especially earlier in the season with more of a lean towards a risk of prolonged cold later in the season.

    December - A close to average month in terms of temperature if a little bit on the milder side. Above average precipitation is more favoured than below average despite my analogue showing an anticyclonic month on the cards, due to a more zonal flow earlier on and there is a possibility of this continuing through the month.

    January - A close to average month again with no large deviation though slightly leaning towards the colder side due to frost or blocking. Precipitation likely to be on the drier side.

    February - Holds the greatest prospects for cold currently with the models clearly showing a backloaded Winter for 2018-19. I think February 2019 will be a cold month but not remarkable in the historical record with a deviation somewhere between 0.5 to 1.0c below average. Precipitation likely to be relatively above average due to volatility in the weather conditions as the Atlantic battles against blocking to the north.

    Analogues failed completely and did not pick up on any pattern during the winter. One of my best analogue years was 1994-95 which was a mild and weak Niño winter but also very wet unlike 2018-19. I think this shows just how unique 2018-19 was and that every season is different in its own right. They don't follow rules or what has happened on in the past.

    I underestimated on December and January's mild nature (although January would have done very well as a UK forecast compared to Ireland due to them having a colder month). February was a disaster all around and I don't think anybody would have been able to call 21c at the end in the UK or just over 17c in Ireland.

    The winter rollercoaster of 2019-20 is in operation and has many seats available but warning to those new here, it's going to be a long bumpy ride.

    Due to being busy with other things and considering I have two college courses to do this year, I may not be able to post as many updates as previous few years.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,432 ✭✭✭sideswipe


    ^^^TLDR will it snow on the 16th of Jan in east Wicklow 127 asl? ;)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    as long as I can somehow get turf bought in, let it , rain, thunder, ice, gale. Stocked up with abundant food etc so all is well whatever.

    Expecting nothing except what comes means no hype and no disappointment. ;) Life is good


  • Registered Users Posts: 384 ✭✭torres9kop


    Brown Thomas were lashed in the press for opening their xmas shop yesterday. Similar lashings here would be good.
    Any snow for D4 Nov/early Dec??


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    Echoing the above not expecting much this year. I think it will reflect winter of 2012. Mild with little frost. I think I experienced about 10 days of frost that winter.

    Saying that there are variables that can affect it like the Sunspot activity was increasing in 2012 not barely active like at the moment.

    Then I am not sure how the ice melt in Greenland going to effect the gulf stream if any at all.

    Still looking forward to Winter, the street lights are still on when I get up now, Brown Thomas has their Christmas shop open and the furniture adverts have started their order now in time for Christmas campaign.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,333 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    And people complain about Christmas been advertised to early ��.
    Talking about Winter in the middle of August should be banned.

    And talking about Summer in the middle of Winter should also be banned - which happens just as often in my experience ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,432 ✭✭✭sideswipe


    And people complain about Christmas been advertised to early 😀.
    Talking about Winter in the middle of August should be banned.

    Ah cheer up, it’s nearly Christmas;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 105 ✭✭Periscal


    Not posting here much since I left Ireland for Slovakia, have kept following international forums though. There have been talks already about winter overall, mainly in connection with Atlantic Tripole, Sunspots and ENSO. There is a growing thought from teleconnective experts about Hadley cell being disrupted due to recent climate warming trend. This then provides headaches for long range forecasters and their analogues from way back can be put to bin and no longer apply. There has been a lot of "disconnect" between oceans and atmosphere apparently during weak ENSO events where atmosphere behaves sometimes like in EL Nino and other times like La Nina - eastern Pacific trades/African trades. It all means it will be a tricky season to predict this year. Better just watch and take all long rangers with large pinch of salt. To start things first is the Accuweather autumn forecast. We all know they are no more accurate then others. But interestingly their text reads: "A sharp change in the weather is possible during mid- and late November as cold air from Russia attempts to press westward across Europe.
    This cold air may settle as far west as Germany, bringing an unseasonable chill to Berlin, Prague and Warsaw.
    The cold air mass will also elevate the chance of snowfall."

    Other interesting point is this:"As the calendar turns to November, these cold shots will become increasingly fierce making it feel more like December and January at times.
    The cold air will also set the stage for multiple snow events from the Baltic states to Belarus and Ukraine by the end of November.
    "Above-normal snowfall is forecast during the month of November across eastern Europe," Reppert said.
    A cold and snowy end to autumn could set the stage for this pattern to persist throughout the winter months."

    So they see appearances of Beast from the East as far west as Germany in November and very cold winter for Eastern Europe(better have my logs ready). If I visualize pressure patterns for this to occur, there must some sort of Scandinavian block present to advect easterlies in to Germany originating from Russia. If I would to believe Accuweather it would be a very exciting forecast for my location which is only 150km west from Ukraine border. Of course a huge step westwards would have to happen for this beast to enter Ireland again a la 2018 March.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,268 ✭✭✭✭uck51js9zml2yt


    Periscal wrote: »
    Not posting here much since I left Ireland for Slovakia, have kept following international forums though. There ha
    .

    My in-laws told me they had snow in May in the Tatras this year.

    Not been a good summer in SK this year.


  • Registered Users Posts: 105 ✭✭Periscal


    My in-laws told me they had snow in May in the Tatras this year.

    Not been a good summer in SK this year.


    It has been a so-so summer this year. Very hut June, but then disappointing July and first week of August. Statistically speaking about my location we had 38 days of thunderstorms within 15km and 22 direct hits. Multiple times over 30mm cumulative rainfall, last week 60mm in a day! The forecast is for a great next 2 weeks so if we have settled back end of August then I rate it 6/10. It has been very hot in south western part but disappointing in north east and eastern SK.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,268 ✭✭✭✭uck51js9zml2yt


    Periscal wrote: »
    It has been a so-so summer this year. Very hut June, but then disappointing July and first week of August. Statistically speaking about my location we had 38 days of thunderstorms within 15km and 22 direct hits. Multiple times over 30mm cumulative rainfall, last week 60mm in a day! The forecast is for a great next 2 weeks so if we have settled back end of August then I rate it 6/10. It has been very hot in south western part but disappointing in north east and eastern SK.

    Don't worry, you'll have 10 meters of snow in another few months(depending were you are) and the Bears and wolves will be down in the village looking for food:)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,664 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Will do some more detailed work on this around October, but my research indicates a high probability of frequent deep low pressure areas in the mix. Unless that combines with blocking, it favours mild/wet/windy as the basic theme as in 2013-14.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,216 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    My feeling is this will be a winter with various opportunities for snow due to the sst temperature profile, low solar activity and the pacific state. There will be deep areas of low pressure, but these will have a tendency to pass to the south of Ireland, opening the door for north easterlies from time to time, but i don't forsee a three months freeze, unfortunately. Just as well, i suppose, because in that scenario civil war would break out on this forum- someone has to think of the moderators:D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    My feeling is this will be a winter with various opportunities for snow due to the sst temperature profile, low solar activity and the pacific state. There will be deep area of low pressure, but these will have a tendency to pass to the south of Ireland, opening the door for north easterly from time to time, but i don't forsee a three months freeze, unfortunately. Just as well, i suppose, because in that scenario civil war would break out on this forum- someone has to think of the moderators:D

    You mean.... I MAY YET get to build one last snowman in my old age! WOWOWOWOW! :D;):):P


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,029 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    My feeling is this will be a winter with various opportunities for snow due to the sst temperature profile, low solar activity and the pacific state. There will be deep area of low pressure, but these will have a tendency to pass to the south of Ireland, opening the door for north easterly from time to time, but i don't forsee a three months freeze, unfortunately. Just as well, i suppose, because in that scenario civil war would break out on this forum- someone has to think of the moderators:D

    That's exactly what I had in mind, if I remember correctly, the South of England was more affected by the storms of winter 2013/14 than the North, which is why I mentioned a less extreme version of that winter as a possibility, I feel like these storms are going to track further south than usual.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,333 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    That's exactly what I had in mind, if I remember correctly, the South of England was more affected by the storms of winter 2013/14 than the North, which is why I mentioned a less extreme version of that winter as a possibility, I feel like these storms are going to track further south than usual.

    Further south of Ireland, or further south in Ireland?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,029 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    leahyl wrote: »
    Further south of Ireland, or further south in Ireland?

    Both, some lows could pass north of us but further south than usual while other lows track south of Ireland. Don't count on it though as long range forecasting is impossible!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,682 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    That's exactly what I had in mind, if I remember correctly, the South of England was more affected by the storms of winter 2013/14 than the North, which is why I mentioned a less extreme version of that winter as a possibility, I feel like these storms are going to track further south than usual.
    December 2013 had the storms tracking to the north mainly and it was the wettest month on record in Scotland until December 2015 whilst January and February mainly had the storms tracking through the country. There was a fair amount of blocking and a strong enough Siberia High but it was all in the wrong place to produce cold.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,908 ✭✭✭✭Beechwoodspark


    Hopefully snow cover from the 8th November right through til 30 jan

    Heaviest falls between December 20-January 12th


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,946 ✭✭✭Dickie10


    there has been frost affected grain not yet harvested an hour or two drive north of edmonton two weeks ago , temp of -2 recorded


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,175 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    The mountains near Longyearbyen are snow capped. Quite unusual for this time of year.

    https://www.webcams.travel/webcam/fullscreen/1182187370


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    they have snow in BC where I have family...


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 25,130 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    esposito wrote: »
    I’m not going to say much as it’s too early but all I’ll say is I’m not getting my hopes up about this winter.

    Last year I got my hopes up about a colder than average winter but as we all know that did not materialise.

    I think it’s best for us all (cold and snow lovers!) not to expect much and then we might be pleasantly surprised.

    It's the hope that kills ya isn't it!! I got sucked in badly last Winter hoping for a big snow event, even though the reality of these things happening aren't great, will certianly stay more grounded.
    And people complain about Christmas been advertised to early ��.
    Talking about Winter in the middle of August should be banned.

    You must be new here, this thread kicks off this time every year and it's brilliant, great read right into the new year, I love it.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    I have yet to fully formulate my thoughts on this winter. I think for the whole solar minimum correlation to show its hand then either this winter or next has to be notably cold. Perhaps if we are lucky then 2020 will mimic 2010 with both the very cold start and end. The science/theory are not this exacting at all though.

    As an aside, It will be interesting to see if certain volcanic eruptions around the world trigger a very wet autumn as history might suggest.


  • Registered Users Posts: 932 ✭✭✭snowstorm445


    My hunch is that at most we will get a cold outbreak similar to 2018 this year (not as severe in intensity but hopefully not so late in the season). Other than that, I can’t see it being that remarkable other than maybe being slightly less mild than last year.

    To be honest, the fact that we refer to winters like last year as “exceptionally mild” is a bit optimistic. These winters, sadly, have become the norm over the past decade or so. If every year sees exceptionally mild weather you would be begin to think that it is no longer exceptional. They are definitely mild compared to long term averages but not in terms of recent history.

    Other than that I have a sneaking suspicion we will see a lot of storms this autumn/early winter. Some of which might produce cold zonality/wet snow scenarios, so maybe the north, west and southwest could do well there!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,175 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    An early cold incursion in to the Canadian far north and down in to Hudson Bay.

    ECH0-96.GIF?27-0


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    If it is of interest. we have a grass frost out here this morning.. west mayo offshore ,,, nippy out here too but very clear and sunny


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,682 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    I have yet to fully formulate my thoughts on this winter. I think for the whole solar minimum correlation to show its hand then either this winter or next has to be notably cold. Perhaps if we are lucky then 2020 will mimic 2010 with both the very cold start and end. The science/theory are not this exacting at all though.

    As an aside, It will be interesting to see if certain volcanic eruptions around the world trigger a very wet autumn as history might suggest.
    If you're looking specifically for us to be notably cold in winter based on solar minimum, not sure you will find great success. The whole solar activity theory is based on blocking and -NAO. This summer has been notably -NAO with unprecedented amplitude which one could say is to do with low solar activity but then again, what happened in 2012 between two solar maximum peaks (late 2011 and early 2014)? Was the 2019 -NAO feedback from the final warming in April following a record strong Polar Vortex in February/March?

    Did an analysis of "solar minimum winters" using the Central England Temperature for last winter's updates, refer to the table below. The blue highlighted ones are the coldest winter of that solar minimum period. See how it's not always clear cut that we get cold winters. Solar Cycle 7 ended in 1833 and was the cycle that ended the Dalton Minimum era. Winter 1832-33 was slightly colder than 2017-18 overall as a comparison in terms of the CET whilst 1833-34 was exceptionally mild (third mildest on record behind 1868-69 and 2015-16) and 1834-35 quite mild. Another example (these not being the only examples though as you will find from the table below) being Solar Cycle 10 going into 11 where there was no cold winter in terms of the CET during the minimum period, coldest was 1867-68 with 4.5c (before that extreme mild winter of 1868-69 I just mentioned). All dependable on where the blocking sits, can get some severe cold seasons like 1917, 1947, 1963, 1979 or 2010 but you can also get very mild seasons like 1834 and 1869.

    JNNw25G.png

    Data from UK Met Office.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,593 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    It's more so just after the minimum that we should have a greater chance of a cold winter.so perhaps winter 20/21.
    This winter in terms of solar minimum is about where we were at in 2008. Of course that doesnt mean we will get a winter like 2008/9 but if we got a winter like that I wouldn't mind.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    I'm always pessimistic about the winter season in Ireland. After all anything better than a dusting (+2cm) is an event for most of us on this island (unless you live on higher ground). Recently I've been trawling through youtube vids of the 2010 event and I've kind of reached the conclusion that it was a once in a lifetime event (ok maybe twice in a lifetime). Having said that the solar minimum does comfort me a bit, if we are lucky we should see a significant event in Europe within the next few years.


  • Registered Users Posts: 603 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    2010 repeat as the SSTs are about the same.

    Time will tell:D:D:D:D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,682 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    2010 repeat as the SSTs are about the same.

    Time will tell:D:D:D:D

    Not really. The tripole in 2010 was very much anomalous. In May this year, the tropical Atlantic was close to average and much of North Atlantic was cold bar south of Greenland. Right now, the North Atlantic is warmer than average generally with a cooler area to west of Iberia. The east US SSTs are well above average which does not bode well for a tripole.


  • Registered Users Posts: 603 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Not really. The tripole in 2010 was very much anomalous. In May this year, the tropical Atlantic was close to average and much of North Atlantic was cold bar south of Greenland. Right now, the North Atlantic is warmer than average generally with a cooler area to west of Iberia. The east US SSTs are well above average which does not bode well for a tripole.

    Its still a Tripole though Atm. We just need HP settling way out west and south to pull in them North easterlies...….:D This is the Best Thread we ever had and its Still August.....


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,682 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Its still a Tripole though Atm. We just need HP settling way out west and south to pull in them North easterlies...….:D This is the Best Thread we ever had and its Still August.....

    Just don’t set yourself up for disappointment. Last year really killed it for me.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,230 ✭✭✭pad199207


    I will look forward to the rarity that is an Air frost this winter.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,593 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Just don’t set yourself up for disappointment. Last year really killed it for me.

    And me. I would be very cautious about this winter. But surely it should be better then last winter.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,002 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Billcarson wrote: »
    And me. I would be very cautious about this winter. But surely it should be better then last winter.

    I'm expecting nothing special this winter, just more of the same typical Irish winter. We get about 1 proper snow event every 10 years, so we are not overdue another one till 2027.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,814 ✭✭✭Calibos


    Why is everyone harking back to 2010. No love for Feb/March 2018??

    I mean, personally I have no love for it because while some of you were buried under feet of the white stuff I just had a 2cm layer of slush melting as fast as Storm Emma could drop it thanks to her blowing in natures anti-feeze in off the sea along with the snow. Yeah, I could have walked a mile inland but if I don't have at least 6 inches of the stuff on my literal doorstep, I am bitterly disappointed.:D :D

    I would have thought 2018 was the ideal for most Snow lovers. Knee deep in the stuff for a week or so with time off work/school, enough to go for walks in Winter wonderlands and build huge snowmen and igloo's with the kids, and for the grown ups, ample opportunity to do a bit o' looting etc...........but no month long disruption like 2010.

    Is 2010 getting all the love in this thread because as a meteorological event it was more interesting to weather enthusiasts whereas the short sharp shocks of 2018 were more interesting to the snow lovers?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,682 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Calibos wrote: »
    Why is everyone harking back to 2010. No love for Feb/March 2018??

    I mean, personally I have no love for it because while some of you were buried under feet of the white stuff I just had a 2cm layer of slush melting as fast as Storm Emma could drop it thanks to her blowing in natures anti-feeze in off the sea along with the snow. Yeah, I could have walked a mile inland but if I don't have at least 6 inches of the stuff on my literal doorstep, I am bitterly disappointed.:D :D

    I would have thought 2018 was the ideal for most Snow lovers. Knee deep in the stuff for a week or so with time off work/school, enough to go for walks in Winter wonderlands and build huge snowmen and igloo's with the kids, and for the grown ups, ample opportunity to do a bit o' looting etc...........but no month long disruption like 2010.

    Is 2010 getting all the love in this thread because as a meteorological event it was more interesting to weather enthusiasts whereas the short sharp shocks of 2018 were more interesting to the snow lovers?
    For me, 2010 was perfect timing (short days, long cold nights). 2018 was far too late as my mood was turning to summer by that point. I still rate it highly though.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,002 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    For me, 2010 was perfect timing (short days, long cold nights). 2018 was far too late as my mood was turning to summer by that point. I still rate it highly though.

    2018 was great, but I much preferred 2010 for the same reasons. I'm not expecting much this winter, but it would be tough to top last winter for blandness and mild/warm temperatures. It wouldn't take much to be cooler and more interesting than last winter.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    Calibos wrote: »
    Why is everyone harking back to 2010. No love for Feb/March 2018??

    I mean, personally I have no love for it because while some of you were buried under feet of the white stuff I just had a 2cm layer of slush melting as fast as Storm Emma could drop it thanks to her blowing in natures anti-feeze in off the sea along with the snow. Yeah, I could have walked a mile inland but if I don't have at least 6 inches of the stuff on my literal doorstep, I am bitterly disappointed.:D :D

    I would have thought 2018 was the ideal for most Snow lovers. Knee deep in the stuff for a week or so with time off work/school, enough to go for walks in Winter wonderlands and build huge snowmen and igloo's with the kids, and for the grown ups, ample opportunity to do a bit o' looting etc...........but no month long disruption like 2010.

    Is 2010 getting all the love in this thread because as a meteorological event it was more interesting to weather enthusiasts whereas the short sharp shocks of 2018 were more interesting to the snow lovers?


    2010 all the way, no comparison in my opinion. Feb/March 2018 was brutal with constant E gales, very hard to enjoy. Managed to accumulate about 17cm in the garden (25cm drifts) from the storm here, but totals would have been much higher had it not been for intermittent thawing and sea spray (I'm close enough to the sea). Don't get me wrong it was an incredible event similar to the storms of 1982 and 1962 but tbh quite hard to enjoy.



    2010 was incredible for its duration and intense convection. On either the 20th or the 21st if I remember correctly there was some of the heaviest snow I've ever seen with 15cm falling in the space of 2-3 hours. Also, most of the snow fell in close to calm conditions (very often a NW land breeze) making it a very different and in my opinion more enjoyable event to the 2018 storm.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,694 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    2018 was way better for us down here in Cork City in my opinion of course everybody differs (if my memory serves me!). 2010 we had only a small amount of snow, sure it was sunny and definitely colder (pipes even froze) but the snow and icicles and everything of 2018 just made it for me. 2010 was defintiely a longer cold snap, but i loved the 2018 snow :) Was amazing


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,027 ✭✭✭MidMan25


    Much prefer proper cold weather to lots of snow so 2010 for me!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    Hard to say which was better 2010 or 2018.

    2010 for the long cold nights and decent snow. When it snowed it stayed and didn't start melting immediately after it snowed.

    2018 and the perfect snow storm. I live in Naas and was hit particular hard. Being trapped in the house as the snow blocked the doors and me climbing out a window to clear the snow. Walls disappeared under the snow it was amazing to experience. Pity I couldn't enjoy it more as I was studying and missed most of the spectacle.


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