LongshotValue 40 bets 1 year

longshotvalue · 24-08-2017 7:24pm #1

I'm going to try and be far more selective for about a year to see what happens. Its hard for anyone to follow 3-400 a year, which i have been doing for years at a decent ROI. Hopefully being more selective will work just as well, with the advantage that ill have an actual bet on all of these.

longshotvalue · 24-08-2017 7:25pm

York 2:25

I can’t get my eyes of Sheikzayedroad here. He looks to have a superb chance at what looks a big price. He meets nothing here that is of Group1 class and although he wasn’t as good this year in his 2 runs after Mayden, as he was last year, he tried to do too much too soon in following Big Orange last time out. The fav look a fair bit overrated to me and almost everything else has fairly big question marks. St Michel could improve but he is in here on level weights and was fairly soundly beaten by my selection last year getting a stone.

In Meyden Sheikzayedroad ran a superb race in the Gold Cup not really getting any luck. I’d be as sure as I can be that he will improve here as he really kicked on last year towards the end of the year with 2 very good Group 2 wins.

He actually seems the most likely winner and 8/1 is huge.

3 Points win 8/1 365/fred/paddy/tote/betfair

longshotvalue · 25-08-2017 7:36am

York 3:00

I’ve been looking at Aeolus for this and dithering about putting him up, with my new found idea of putting up far less horses than before. He just looks like a horse that is in top form at the moment and although on the face of it he looks to have to make up about 7lbs to get seriously involved, he has in the past been of a mark that would be very competitive here. He was superb in the Stewards Cup and that race is close enough to this level to make it a strong possibility that he can find the improvement. He was also a big eye catcher on his previous run. 33/1 with 4 places looks great value . Bet365 are the best as they has 4 places and ¼ odds.

1.5 Points EW 33/1 4 places 365/paddy/betfair

Peintre Celebre · 25-08-2017 11:07am

Would you say Dartmouth has fairly big question marks?

vandriver · 25-08-2017 11:31am

Subscribed,and a fresh new betting account opened just for you !

longshotvalue · 25-08-2017 11:41am

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Would you say Dartmouth has fairly big question marks?

Not as many as some of the others. but i suppose i think he might be overrated and has to give 3lbs to the others. He also hasn't run over this trip before, and was carried over the line on his first run this year which may not have been that great in retrospect. He is also 4/1 giving 3lbs and rated the same.. If i was pricing it up i would have Sheik around the same price as Dartmouth ahead of Dal Harraild and Thomas Hobson, but i'm a lot more wrong that right so here's hoping.

longshotvalue · 27-08-2017 1:10pm

Curragh 4:20
Dunkum Diamond is a horse I was following for a while earlier this year thinking he would pop up at a big price at some stage this year. He has shown improved form on his last 2 runs and I’d have to think he will run his best race in Ireland this year today. He is a stone below his very consistent uk form and has been travelling much better in his last few races. In Galway he was outside the whole way around and did well to get anywhere near there. He travelled well here last time out to be second in a decent race without a 5lbs claimer on and that run with a bit of improvement will put him close enough here to make 40/1 enticing.
1 Point EW 40/1 5 places Ladbrokes / Coral 33/1 6 places Sky

longshotvalue · 08-09-2017 8:32pm

2:25 Haydock Sprint Cup

This is as easy a pick as I’ve had in a while. The Tin Man is a dual Group 1 winner over 6 furlongs, has form on soft and was 2nd in this last year when he was slow away. He is a better horse than Brando and is more than twice the price. He does have a poor run last time out to forgive but that is always the way in sprints. 8/1 is huge he is a 9/2 shot here. The fav could struggle on this ground

3 Points win 8/1 Fred/Paddy/VC/tote/boyles/betfair

09-09-2017 10:35am

aidankkk wrote: »

2:25 Haydock Sprint Cup

This is as easy a pick as I’ve had in a while. The Tin Man is a dual Group 1 winner over 6 furlongs, has form on soft and was 2nd in this last year when he was slow away. He is a better horse than Brando and is more than twice the price. He does have a poor run last time out to forgive but that is always the way in sprints. 8/1 is huge he is a 9/2 shot here. The fav could struggle on this ground

3 Points win 8/1 Fred/Paddy/VC/tote/boyles/betfair

Alex Hammond has put the mockers on this one

longshotvalue · 09-09-2017 11:28am

TheTorment wrote: »

Alex Hammond has put the mockers on this one

Well even she can pick a winner today

longshotvalue · 09-09-2017 11:38am

6:45 Leopardstown

The Grey Gatsby moved to Dermot Weld and has been caught up in a stable hugely out of form since. I thought he traveled well last time until he ran out of puff over 12 furlongs. This has always been his trip and he has landed here with decent ground and at a huge price in the worst edition of this race ever run. 66/1 is easily worth the risk , especially now the stable has come back to form.

1.5 Points EW 66/1 Bet365 1/4 Place 66/1 1/5th elsewhere

James Bond Junior · 09-09-2017 2:34pm

Nice one Aidan, thanks.

longshotvalue · 10-09-2017 2:41pm

4:50 Irish Ledger
I don’t think there is much between Torcedor/Wicklow Brave and Twilight Pavement and with that in mind the 40/1 about Twilight Pavement looks a good 25% too big. He also appears better on softer ground and earlier this year he lost by 5lengths to Torcedor giving him 6 lbs when he got away a bit too easy turning for home. That run puts them very close on form 40/1 is too big

1 Point EW 40/1 ¼ Bet365 40/1 1/5th elsewhere.

3:05 Leop

I just can’t resist a 3 figure price that has any shout at all and I’m going to go with a small bet here on Pious Alexander. She should have no chance here on ratings but has caught the eye twice without any luck in decent races and if she gets a rune here I think she can get involved at an outrageous price.

1 Point EW 150/1 Stars/unibet/32/888 100/1 Elsewhere

longshotvalue · 16-09-2017 10:11am

So much for reducing my bets.

3:35 Doncaster
When the ground was drying out I felt that Douglas MacArthur was one of the bets of the year at 50/1. I’m afraid the softer ground has tempered that confidence a fair bit. He is still a decent bet at that price but on good ground he looked a certainty to be in the first 4 here. He has better form and is certainly a far better horse than some that are less than half his price. He has also looked a possible stayer on a few occasions once he is not haring off in front. 50/1 with 4 places on paddy/betfair is still massive as I have him near a 20/1 shot at most
3 Points EW 50/1 4 Places Paddy/Betfair 40/1 4 Places Sky
3:00 Doncaster
Seahenge looked like a horse that had no idea he was supposed to speed up and the end last time out behind Eagle Eye. He wasn’t really forced to in a reasonably tender looking ride and I think he may well have learned from that and 16/1 is just too big.
1 Point win 16/1 vc/paddy/boyle/betfair
2:25
Peace Envoy is a horse I’ve liked from last year and despite 2 poor runs in top class races lately on firm ground I think he could well be better here on softer ground. He has plenty of form in the book that makes him interesting and if he is ready to rune here after a break he is a classy horse to be up to 28/1
1 Point win 25/1 Generally 28/1 sporting/betfair
Doncaster 1:30
Eastern Impact is on a decent mark here and I’m always willing to forgive sprinters a bad run or two. He could well be the classiest runner in this race and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bit of a resurgence here at a big looking 25/1
1 Point win 25/1 vc/uni/32/black/888/betfair

Stheno · 16-09-2017 3:46pm

Seahenge won thanks Aidan

longshotvalue · 23-09-2017 9:41am

Newbury 3:25

First Flight is just far too consistent over this trip and conditions to be a 40/1 shot here. He is cast iron to be involved in the finish and looks about a 3/1 shot to be placed at best. Mosse is one of the best jockeys around and was 2nd on his earlier on this year. He will give us a run for our money. I think given his profile the extra place is worth a drop in win price.

1 Point EW 40/1 5 places Hills 33/1 5 places sky/paddy/lads and others

longshotvalue · 23-09-2017 10:04am

Newmarket 3:10

Agent Murphy is taking a step up in trip which is what he needs judging by his form a few years ago. If he gets held up here and can improve again here as he has been doing in his runs this year he can get involved. There is a slight risk that he may be getting ready for a big run in the main race is a few weeks’ time but at 25/1 he is worth the risk as the class horse of the race of a workable mark.

1 Point win 25/1 Generally

Newbury 4:00

Muthmir is a Group 1 performer and when I look at this race he just wins most of the time. There will be a mad pace with multiple front runners and that should set it up perfectly for him here. Apart from his last run he has been on top form this year and is really about a 3/1 shot here so 6/1 is great value.

I’m just going to have a small just in case bet on Just Glamorous at a huge price. He has not been staying in his races this year and should be getting fitter with each race. One of these days he will stay out there and cause a shock. 80/1 is worth the risk

2 Points win 6/1 Muthmir Generally
½ Point win 80/1 Just Glamorous Generally

longshotvalue · 23-09-2017 10:27am

Newbury 2:15

There is nothing between My Dream Boat and the fav Desert Encounter on form and my guess is todays trip will be right up My Dream Boats’ alley. Even on this year’s form he is one of the most likely winners here and he has some top class form on good ground. He should be certainly 3rd fav here and 12/1 is way too big he will go of around 7/1. If he settles at all he can pick of most of these.

2 Points win 12/1 365/hill/lads/coral

longshotvalue · 29-09-2017 5:37pm

3:35 Newmarket
Ive had Battle of Marathon in mind for this at a huge price for a while and with the ground now soft he really has everything in his favor. Considering he was 5th in last years Royal Hunt Cup of a mark of 110 on soft ground and if effectively 20 lbs lower now with the aid of a 7lbs claimer with a good record for this trainer, 66/1 with 6 places looks very big. The trainer is in decent form of late. He was also 3rd in last years Lincoln of 5 lbs lower again on soft ground. In fairness a lot of luck in needed here but 66/1 is just massive.
2.5 Points EW 66/1 6 places Paddy/Betfair

sword1 · 29-09-2017 5:50pm

Paddy are back to 50/1, they must be following.

TotalReality · 29-09-2017 10:12pm

W.Hill offering 8 places 1/5 odds at 40/1

longshotvalue · 30-09-2017 10:21am

New 2:55
Declarationofpeace is getting another shot from me here after an improved performance last time out. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him give his best performance of the season here and that makes the 66/1 great value. He had a bit too much to do last time out but it’s possible that was a cautious run after him bombing out at Ascot.
1 Point EW 66/1 365 ¼ place 1/5th elsewhere

longshotvalue · 30-09-2017 10:40am

3:15 Haydock
Going through this field its possible Rene Mathis has the best soft ground form on offer. He will certainly be staying on at the finish here having won a big handicap on soft over 7 furlongs in the past. His last run was impressive and although he has been on a break since he is running of a workable mark here. He could be very difficult to kick out of the 5 here
2 Points EW 28/1 5 places paddy/Betfair

longshotvalue · 30-09-2017 10:48am

Ripon 3:45
Right Touch disappointed last time out after being backed. He has a very good record around here and is now on a very nice mark. He won’t the far away in the finish here. 20/1 is great value
1 Point win 20/1 Generally

finglashoop · 30-09-2017 11:58am

Put the 4 in a small e/w L15

longshotvalue · 30-09-2017 12:20pm

finglashoop wrote: »

Put the 4 in a small e/w L15

That's what I ended up doing myself . Paddy with the extra places and 3 x 1 winner is great value . They only have to win now

longshotvalue · 30-09-2017 1:06pm

Haydock 2:40
Kinglami’s record on soft/heavy ground is exceptional. He has never done anything really when it hasn’t been soft and of bottom weight here with plenty of bookies going 4 places the 14 runners 28/1 is starting to look very big. His second last run was very good really. We have his last run to forgive but there would have to be some negative for a horse of that price.
1.5 Points EW 28/1 4 places lads/paddy//betfair/coral

longshotvalue · 01-10-2017 2:38pm

3:05 Arc
Not a lot of time for explanations but Silverwave has a good record around here and there is nothing between any of these French horses. This race needs a huge amount of luck on the ground and around here and I’d prefer to be on a 200/1 shot that is a 66/1 shot than any of the lower priced horses. He actually appears to be better than ever this year and his last run can be ignored and he will be prepared for today. My gut feeling is Enable and Order of saint George and Capri will fight out the finish. Im also going to go for a small win saver on Satono Diamond as he still has prospected of beign a top class horse and 50/1 is value
2 Points EW Silverwave 4 places 365 200/1 ¼ Place
1 Point win 50/1 Satono Diamond Generally

longshotvalue · 01-10-2017 3:42pm

4:35 Chantilly
Duke of Firenze goes on any ground but won’t be at all inconvenienced with the soft ground here. He was great in this race last year in 6th without getting a decent run through and I think he is capable of outrunning his odds here. 100/1 with 4 places is worth a shot.
1 Point EW 100/1 4 places Paddy/Betfair 80/1 4 places sky/boyles

longshotvalue · 07-10-2017 10:57am

Ascot 3:00

I'm not convinced at all by the Sprint cup form and altough the favs form stands out he looks too short here at the weights . Magical Memory was poor in that race but if we ignore that he really should go close here . 8/1 looks really big for a group 1 class horse here.

2 points win 8/1 generally

longshotvalue · 07-10-2017 11:05am

Newmarket 2:40

Qemah looks the best in this race. Things haven't really worked out fir her this year but I think she can come good today at a decent price. 7/1 is certainly value and I expect her to go off around 9/2 .

2 points win 7/1 generally

LongshotValue 40 bets 1 year

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