COLD SPELL Jan 28th Onwards: Wintry Showers/Frosty, Some Snow Accumulations

munsterlegend · 26-01-2015 9:25am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The forecast is as in the OP. Nothing has changed.

thanks Kermit for this update and the continued updates. as ever snow and this country is never straightforward.

JCX BXC · 26-01-2015 9:26am

AnotherYear wrote: »

By Wednesday we will have a better idea.

Wouldn't we want to have a better idea by Wednesday:)

I really don't know what to think of the forecasts. Met eireann has kinda reduced the snow but prolonged the cold spell. MT is forecasting the cold but little snow. Not as hopeful as yesterday tbh

. Still, Thursday night I'd keep my eyes peeled. It could be interesting !

Rock Lesnar · 26-01-2015 9:26am

while i enjoy reading the posts, and everybody getting excited, I'm sticking to my if i can see it, its happening forecast.

No disappointment, and no anger when it doesn't happen.

JanuarySnowstor · 26-01-2015 9:49am

Mt's forecast is not what the models show.
His view is that the weekend is colder than Wed night and Thursday
Simply not true as the truly cold air is happening Thursday along with the snow chances.
I think MT's eyes are more northeast US this morning

munsterlegend · 26-01-2015 9:54am

If MT could come back and give his view later that would be great! the models later this afternoon will have further updates

AnotherYear · 26-01-2015 9:55am

Hi Carn. I meant come Wednesday we will have a better idea on how it's looking for early next week

maquiladora · 26-01-2015 9:59am

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Mt's forecast is not what the models show.
His view is that the weekend is colder than Wed night and Thursday
Simply not true as the truly cold air is happening Thursday along with the snow chances.
I think MT's eyes are more northeast US this morning

Sunday night is colder over a wider area than Wednesday/Thursday on the GFS.

AnotherYear · 26-01-2015 10:04am

I think January means he is underplaying the snow risk for Wed/Thur which I'd agree with.

Macy0161 · 26-01-2015 10:18am

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I suppose we will somehow have to pretend to be excited by the prospect of just the two days of snow.

I'd get/ do get excited with a day's lying snow. In fact, if we got that, with the schools out, I might even join in the "winters over" we've been hearing since December!

Rebelbrowser · 26-01-2015 10:19am

Pangea wrote: »

Pretend? Speak for yourself.

You may have missed my sarcasm Pangea! Two days of snow showers is a once in a 5 year event in this country (if it comes off) and this snow bunny is ready and waiting....

munsterlegend · 26-01-2015 10:25am

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

You may have missed my sarcasm Pangea! Two days of snow showers is a once in a 5 year event in this country (if it comes off) and this snow bunny is ready and waiting....

being a fellow corkonian i did get it rebelbrowser! we do better out of these set ups than easterlies.

Pangea · 26-01-2015 10:29am

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

You may have missed my sarcasm Pangea! Two days of snow showers is a once in a 5 year event in this country (if it comes off) and this snow bunny is ready and waiting....

Apologies

, With the greed for snow on display in here that went over my head

Rebelbrowser · 26-01-2015 10:36am

Just looking at the GFS in more detail, you can see a rather dramatic arrival of the colder dew points.

At 3am on Wednesday morning chart looks like this....

At 9am, just 6 hours later, its like this...

15012900_2600.

That's an 11 degree drop in dew points for most in just 6 hours!

I take snow charts with a pinch of salt, particularly when they show straight lines as the boundary of rain and snow, but just a tad concerned on an imby basis with these charts! See below..

This map or similar is repeated for most of the 48 hours on the WeatherOnLine version of GFS. Seems hard to believe there would be rain falling as at the time uppers are -7 down here, dew points are never more than -2 throughout and thickness is sub 828. Am I missing something?

Baggy Trousers · 26-01-2015 10:54am

Good man Kermit, you're making January fly by!
I'll be on high ground next weekend no doubt.

LordNorbury · 26-01-2015 11:26am

I'm back, not really optimistic, not after the huge let down on the last chance for snow, hope I'm proven wrong this time though! :cool:

JanuarySnowstor · 26-01-2015 11:36am

Much improved 06 run for the longterm

JanuarySnowstor · 26-01-2015 12:18pm

Updated warning out for NI
5 ms widely and 10 cm for high ground

As the rest of Ireland is under the same air source we should expect same

munsterlegend · 26-01-2015 12:20pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Updated warning out for NI
5 ms widely and 10 cm for high ground

As the rest of Ireland is under the same air source we should expect same

but will the precipitation make it down south?

Rebelbrowser · 26-01-2015 12:26pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

but will the precipitation make it down south?

coming on a NW flow so it should. To be imby about it, the Cork showers, if they reach us, will come in over Kerry / Clare and travel down that way. It was the same on 17 December 2010 as I recall happily........

maquiladora · 26-01-2015 12:27pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

but will the precipitation make it down south?

A dusting to a couple of cm further south. It's the north/northwest that will get the most of it. A bit more on hills.

84-780UK.GIF?26-6

Rebelbrowser · 26-01-2015 12:28pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

coming on a NW flow so it should. To be imby about it, the Cork showers, if they reach us, will come in over Kerry / Clare and travel down that way. It was the same on 17 December 2010 as I recall happily........

Incidentally to someone who was asking how Clare would fare, on charts I've see it looks like it will fare very well indeed......

snowstreams · 26-01-2015 12:30pm

maquiladora wrote: »

A dusting to a couple of cm further south. It's the north/northwest that will get the most of it. A bit more on hills.

Strange how the Mayo galway border has a patch with no snow. Is that just a random patch due to snow showers on 1 model run? Or is it predicted from an ensemble of runs?
Only 2cm for my house on that map.

maquiladora · 26-01-2015 12:37pm

snowstreams wrote: »

Strange how the Mayo galway border has a patch with no snow. Is that just a random patch due to snow showers on 1 model run? Or is it predicted from an ensemble of runs?
Only 2cm for my house on that map.

It's just a rough estimate, you can't predict exactly where will get 0.5cm and where will get 2cm when it comes to snow showers. Some of the higher amounts further south on the chart denote areas of higher ground.

The north/northwest will get the most then up to couple of cm for areas further south, but it will be a case of watching the radar to see if those showers reach you or not on the day, and how beefy they will be.

Baggy Trousers · 26-01-2015 12:48pm

snowstreams wrote: »

Strange how the Mayo galway border has a patch with no snow. Is that just a random patch due to snow showers on 1 model run? Or is it predicted from an ensemble of runs?
Only 2cm for my house on that map.

Does Lough Mask & Lough Corrib influence snowfall?

Gonzo · 26-01-2015 1:14pm

mirrorwall14 wrote: »

I'm being induced tomorrow night in dublin. How is this looking for Dublin/kildare? Family will likely be travelling up from Mayo later in the week too?! Not the most confident of drivers either

it should be similar to the last event with Dublin Kildare receiving nothing or a few light flurries in a few places. Should be frosty by night tho.

mirrorwall14 · 26-01-2015 1:19pm

Gonzo wrote: »

it should be similar to the last event with Dublin Kildare receiving nothing or a few light flurries in a few places. Should be frosty by night tho.

Thanks so much! So just the parents who need to be careful travelling

WheatenBriar · 26-01-2015 1:23pm

Gonzo wrote: »

it should be similar to the last event with Dublin Kildare receiving nothing or a few light flurries in a few places. Should be frosty by night tho.

I think kildare Meath and Dublin will see some snow cover from this by Sunday

munsterlegend · 26-01-2015 1:24pm

WheatenBriar wrote: »

I don't agree
I think kildare Meath and Dublin will see some snow cover from this by Sunday

very hard to predict with any accuracy this far out. best to err on the side of caution though and check updates closer the time.

JanuarySnowstor · 26-01-2015 1:27pm

Cork usually does well out of Northwesterly as we don't have any mountains in the way.

In fact a northwesterly can work better for us than a westerly.

I'd be certain of lying snow by Thursday morning on hills anyway.
Similar to last spell 10 days ago

HighLine · 26-01-2015 1:36pm

This event looks alot better for the Wicklow Mountains than last week. Nearly 24 hours of snow potential.

munsterlegend · 26-01-2015 2:12pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Cork usually does well out of Northwesterly as we don't have any mountains in the way.

In fact a northwesterly can work better for us than a westerly.

I'd be certain of lying snow by Thursday morning on hills anyway.
Similar to last spell 10 days ago

yeah was thinking that too.

the cork and kerry mountains kill showers from the west. need the strong airflow to bring the showers south.

munsterlegend · 26-01-2015 2:13pm

HighLine wrote: »

This event looks alot better for the Wicklow Mountains than last week. Nearly 24 hours of snow potential.

the charts look a lot better snow wise than the recent event.

snowstreams · 26-01-2015 2:16pm

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/footage-shows-daring-rescuers-save-climbers-stuck-on-frozen-carrauntoohil-30935097.html
Seems there was still a good bit of snow on Carrauntoohil on saturday night from this video of climbers getting rescued.

WheatenBriar · 26-01-2015 2:39pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

very hard to predict with any accuracy this far out. best to err on the side of caution though and check updates closer the time.

I know
But my logic is simple, this is a stronger more disturbed,more solid flow than the last one where even Carlow town had snow cover for a time Ergo it should deliver some goods to the tri state area

(Dublin, Meath,Kildare)

Cork gets rain showers in a normal spring or summer Atlantic Northwesterly or westerly even though it's on the south coast, it's west enough so why shouldn't it get snow showers when cold enough in a scenario like this week, it does and it should like the spell a fortnight ago
I've often driven out the N25 towards Waterford in heavy downpours only to have dry roads in east cork
The city is inside enough a sort of cut off point for frequent showers in that type of flow

Gonzo · 26-01-2015 2:40pm

WheatenBriar wrote: »

I think kildare Meath and Dublin will see some snow cover from this by Sunday

It just so happens im going to Galway on Sunday so if it snows here im going to miss it!

munsterlegend · 26-01-2015 2:43pm

WheatenBriar wrote: »

I know
But my logic is simple, this is a stronger more disturbed,more solid flow than the last one where even Carlow town had snow cover for a time Ergo it should deliver some goods to the tri state area (Dublin, Meath,Kildare)

Cork gets rain showers in a normal spring or summer Atlantic Northwesterly or westerly even though it's on the south coast, it's west enough so why shouldn't it get snow showers when cold enough in a scenario like this week, it does and it should like the spell a fortnight ago
I've often driven out the N25 towards Waterford in heavy downpours only to have dry roads in east cork
The city is inside enough a sort of cut off point for frequent showers in that type of flow

I hope so WheatenBriar and definitely we do better from north westerly set ups down here. as you said there does look more shower activity for everybody from wednesday on.

munsterlegend · 26-01-2015 2:55pm

Gonzo wrote: »

It just so happens im going to Galway on Sunday so if it snows here im going to miss it!

You should be fine in Galway though so might satisfy your snow addiction. still though its nice to see it falling in your own backyard.

snowgal · 26-01-2015 2:55pm

Gonzo wrote: »

It just so happens im going to Galway on Sunday so if it snows here im going to miss it!

for the meath game??

(im nosey!)

Graces7 · 26-01-2015 2:59pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Mt's forecast is not what the models show.
His view is that the weekend is colder than Wed night and Thursday
Simply not true as the truly cold air is happening Thursday along with the snow chances.
I think MT's eyes are more northeast US this morning

Which is understandable. I have family living near him in BC and they are bracing themselves for the worst storm in living memory there. Need to give him some leeway these next few days.

Graces7 · 26-01-2015 3:04pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

yeah was thinking that too.

the cork and kerry mountains kill showers from the west. need the strong airflow to bring the showers south.

As in stop dead? Oh dear! No getting past them?

munsterlegend · 26-01-2015 3:08pm

Graces7 wrote: »

As in stop dead? Oh dear! No getting past them?

what does get past is of very little use in terms of snowfall. anyway don't have to worry about that when showers coming from the north west.

Redsunset · 26-01-2015 3:22pm

Great image here. But we see the Storm for North East USA to bring epic snowfall.

Also just look at those winds coming down off A VERY FRIGID Greenland. These then race across the Atlantic toward us at great speed. An Arctic blast not to be underestimated here. Plenty of robust Snow showers will cross the land.
Accumulations for many. GET READY.

munsterlegend · 26-01-2015 3:30pm

Redsunset wrote: »

Great image here. It's large, can't resize till later. SCROLL ACROSS TILL IT'S RESIZEDMaybe another Mod can do this. But we see the Storm for North East USA to bring epic snowfall.

Also just look at those winds coming down off A VERY FRIGID Greenland. These then race across the Atlantic toward us at great speed. An Arctic blast not to be underestimated here. Plenty of robust Snow showers will cross the land.
Accumulations for many. GET READY.

Would they not be modified by the Atlantic? when is scheduled date or arrival?

Redsunset · 26-01-2015 3:41pm

Your always going to get Atlantic modification thats why it's called a Polarmaritime flow from that dirrection, but windspeed will help our cause here.

munsterlegend · 26-01-2015 3:46pm

Redsunset wrote: »

Your always going to get Atlantic modification thats why it's called a Polarmaritime flow from that dirrection, but windspeed will help our cause here.

Just curious as to when you expect these showers to make it across the atlantic to us?

MissMoc · 26-01-2015 3:55pm

Thanks Maquiladora,

I can save my excitement for the rest of you based on that chart - looks like the midlands will fare the worst in terms lack of snow :-(

Enjoy the next few days guys - I can be exciting waiting to see what is coming your way.

ken76 · 26-01-2015 4:00pm

Havent read the whole thread, so apologies if this has been answered, but what type of snow can Dublin expect? Will it stick etc? Sandyford /Dundrum( ha sorry if too specific with the area)

stooge · 26-01-2015 4:11pm

Anything from 0cm to 5cm is possible. These events are notoriously hard to predict. If I was to have a guess I'd say a dusting for most of Dublin (1cm) with Sandyford getting 2-3cm. Biggest snowfall in Tyrone (12-15cm on lower ground) with least snowfall on exposed coasts. Then again, with a slight change, it could work out like last week with snow mainly on hills and sleet at lower levels.

Speak Now · 26-01-2015 4:21pm

ken76 wrote: »

Havent read the whole thread, so apologies if this has been answered, but what type of snow can Dublin expect? Will it stick etc? Sandyford /Dundrum( ha sorry if too specific with the area)

No point in getting into that detail now. Cold is coming, going to feel bitter in the wind. It will be Radar watch from Wednesday afternoon and keep an eye from reports to the northwest of you.

MissMoc · 26-01-2015 4:23pm

I am a total novice here (just a snow lover) so excuse the possible stupidity of this question for those in the know. Is there any chance we will see anything here from Storm Juno hitting the US?
Blushing already as I know daft that question sounds...

COLD SPELL Jan 28th Onwards: Wintry Showers/Frosty, Some Snow Accumulations

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