Cameron's Plan For No-Fly Zone Over Libya

Very odd & repeated reports tonight that Mitiga airbase (just outside Tripoli) is flying the rebel flag. If true, deserting unit perhaps?

Benghazi folks are going crazy
http://www.livestation.com/channels/101-al-jazeera-mubasher-arabic

No confirmation from any respectable news channel.

There's a very helpful map of Tripoli here
http://www.twitpic.com/4vvkpg/full

hmmm wrote: »

A fine rebel collection in the Western mountains

i hope they've got Hi-Viz and IR panels, or they'll be razor blades by dawn...

This video is apparently from South of Misratah yesterday. From about 1.40 onwards is like a scene from Mad Max. Watch 3.25 Note that the rebels are fighting on 3 (or 4 if you include the port) fronts from Misratah so this is not all their mobile strength.



I wouldn't like to be in the cabin when this is fired


Interesting PsyOps reported today
http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFLDE74F1DU20110516

Map of Misrata, I don't think it's particularly inaccurate. http://twitpic.com/4ze79w

The important strategic goal is to cut the road to the South, which will largely isolate Sirte and Gadaffi forces further to the East (e.g. on the front line around Brega). If those forces could be isolated, there would be a great opportunity for rebels in the East to link up with those in Misrata.

BrianD wrote: »

...There was a lot of talk about Gadaffy's portable SAMs. You don't hear about them being used and I wonder what threat they still pose?

they still exist, so they pose a threat - but nothing i've heard about the ongoing op suggests they are being fired at anyone with any regularity. NATO aircraft are regularly flying within the 'maybe' zone of systems like SAM-7, Blowpipe, Stinger, Strela, Redeye and Starstreak in daylight, and previous experience suggests that in such situations scared people let rip with whatever is to hand, regardless of the technicalities of system performance and kill probability.

logic would therefore indicate that either Ghaddafi loyalists are either the most disciplined troops in the world, or that its yet another capability that governments buy, but don't trust their troops enough to actually issue.

personally i can see the AH capability being used pretty sparingly - they are vunerable to ground fire, and the situation on the ground isn't exactly heaving with good fire disipline, but they will be very useful in dislodging specific centres of resistance that it might be a bit dodgy to use a 500lb bomb on.

BrianD wrote: »

We're getting further and further away from the UN resolution and closer and closer to boots on the ground.

There was a lot of talk about Gadaffy's portable SAMs. You don't hear about them being used and I wonder what threat they still pose?

There was an interesting clip on Al Jazeera this afternoon. In the fighting around Misurata one of their cameramen spotted three "western european" looking males with a bunch of local fighters, when they noticed the camera they covered up their faces.

Some of these look like they'd explode in your face, others actually look quite useful

It's interesting that while most focus is on the East and Misrata, it's the rebels in the West who look well equipped and are edging very close to Tripoli itself. If Zawiya is (re)taken, Gadaffi's route to Tunisia is cut off, as is his major refinery. The rebels are about maybe 50k from Zawiya, and Zawiya is also a hotbed of unrest, unlike Sirte and Zliten which are sticking points for rebels elsewhere.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13921665

BrianD wrote: »

Are all these rebels singing off the same hymn sheet, I wonder?

Whether there's any sense of a unified rebel military command I'm not sure, probably not. NATO is certainly helping in the West, and there does appear to be some "foreigners" mixed in, so at the very least there is a strategy to apply pressure everywhere and stretch the Gadaffi forces.

I believe the rebels in the West are mostly Berbers, and there was some talk that they would cease fighting once they had taken the entire Nafusa mountains area. This would give them a good defensive position, and from there they would attempt to create an enclave and ultimately a greater Berber nation (taking in bits of other countries).

However, the news reports have shown that they are now advancing across the plains towards Tripoli. They are also clearly flying the rebel (old Libyan) flag and not some Berber nation flag. There is something odd about the fighting in the West as large amounts of armour appears to have been captured or destroyed - beyond the mountains themselves the area looks quite flat which I imagine wouldn't lend itself to ambushes by lightly armed civilians, but they seem to have been doing an amazing job. Don't mess with the Berbers apparently - or else Tunisia has been doing a good job getting Quatari weaponry into the area.

The rebel forces in the far Eastern region are stalled around Brega, which is being bombed once or twice a day by NATO. I have simply no idea why the fighting is stalled there, I suspect because Sirte is in the way which will prevent any sort of large advance anyway. Sirte is unlikely to join the rebel side. If they could clear Sirte the road is open to link up with Misrata - instead, the rebels in Benghazi have been shipping large amounts of material and men to Misrata by sea.

The rebels in Misrata are slowly advancing towards Zliten but are being held back from attacking the city. Apparently there are two ethnic groups involved, and the last thing the rebels want to do is piss off the group in Zliten. The rebels are hoping Zliten rebels by itself, but so far the city is relatively quiet. So, the Misrata "front" is also stalled in terms of an advance on Tripoli.

It isn't clear what will happen should the rebels reach Tripoli. Some neighbourhoods clearly hate Gadaffi, but it isn't clear if the city will quickly collapse or whether it will become a second Misrata. If Gadaffi chooses to run his destination will probably be Sebha in the South where he could make a nuisance of himself to several countries.

Aerial recon image from Misrata