Cameron's Plan For No-Fly Zone Over Libya

BrianD

Manic Moran wrote: »

He's a few years behind the times, unless he was writing that before 1861.

NTM

What makes you certain it wouldn't happen again.

Gun toting disgruntled Republicans. Record numbers of people living below the poverty lines. The ingredients are there. Never really considered it a possibility myself but times are changing.

Steyr

10minutes ago via Twitter:

USAF 7th Special Operations Squadron arr Luqa Malta as RCH1018, a Mildenhall based USAFE MC-130H tail nr 87-0023

seanmacc

Steyr wrote: »

10minutes ago via Twitter:

USAF 7th Special Operations Squadron arr Luqa Malta as RCH1018, a Mildenhall based USAFE MC-130H tail nr 87-0023

We'll be seeing a huge build up over the next few days. I'd imagine the next step will be supply drops to the rebels if that's not started already.

savagecabbages

Watching Euronews lastnight only half paying attention, but there seems to be talk an alternative way to enforce the no-fly zone with the rebels being armed with anti-aircraft weapons to enforce the no-fly zone themselves. Surely this is madness!

Did anyone hear anything more about this, or come across any sources??
Is it just David Cameron talking about a no-fly zone, or is there a wider consensus? Fat lot of good it did in Iraq for all those years...

Raging_Ninja

savagecabbages wrote: »

Watching Euronews lastnight only half paying attention, but there seems to be talk an alternative way to enforce the no-fly zone with the rebels being armed with anti-aircraft weapons to enforce the no-fly zone themselves. Surely this is madness!

Did anyone hear anything more about this, or come across any sources??
Is it just David Cameron talking about a no-fly zone, or is there a wider consensus? Fat lot of good it did in Iraq for all those years...

Operation Provide Comfort was by all accounts a great success, which allowed tens of thousands of Kurdish refugees to return to their homes after a US battalion under the command of then-Lt. Col. John Abizaid with massive air support essentially conquered the northern third of Iraq.

maquiladora

savagecabbages wrote: »

Watching Euronews lastnight only half paying attention, but there seems to be talk an alternative way to enforce the no-fly zone with the rebels being armed with anti-aircraft weapons to enforce the no-fly zone themselves. Surely this is madness!

Did anyone hear anything more about this, or come across any sources??
Is it just David Cameron talking about a no-fly zone, or is there a wider consensus? Fat lot of good it did in Iraq for all those years...

The six Persian gulf states in the gcc said today that they "demand" a no fly zone. The libyan rebels have been for calling for it for some time too.

Getting approval from China and Russia at the UN is another matter though.

savagecabbages

I suppose yes your right the operation itself was quite successful, I was more talking about it being a near-sighted half solution to the problem. Hussein needed to be removed from power, and should have been in 1991.
Had 2003 not happened, how long more would these missions have continued?

I also mentioned that in the context of Libya, where countries may be reluctant to involve themselves in a potentially hugely expensive, long-term operation with questionable results tying down forces which are continually being reduced due to budget cuts.

Steyr

Italian Defence Ministry affirmed today that 8 fighters are on QRA alert at Trapani, Grosseto & Gioia del Colle ready for take off in 15 mins.

Manic Moran

So where does it stop?

Why enforce one? The Loyalists have an 'unfair advantage?' When they use an artillery regiment supporting a tank battalion, is that an 'unfair advantage' requiring that someone airstrike the tanks or artillery? How far down that path do people want to go?

NTM

BrianD

How vital a role is the Libyan Airforce playing to supporting the regime? They don't appear to be as active as one would think.

The Iraqi no fly zone did not stop ground activities and these continued in earnest despite the lack of planes in the sky.

Interesting that the Iraqi experience resulted in 4 Iraqi aircraft being shot down along with numerous SAM batteries destroyed. The Allies lost 2 aircraft and 26 marines in friendly fire. It lasted from 1991 to 2003 with Saddam in power till the end despitw 1000s of sorties. Didn't really help the ordinary man on the street who had to endure the despot and western sanctions.

So we really want to go down this half hearted route again? After all we're not really bothered what sort of bloodshed is happening in other parts of Africa.

concussion

I think the big difference here is that the Libyan AF is actively bombing and strafing rebel forces.

BrianD

concussion wrote: »

I think the big difference here is that the Libyan AF is actively bombing and strafing rebel forces.

Our news media are looping some dramatic smoke plumes from bombs dropped by the air force. However, one would think that given that NATO etc is supposed to have AWACs surveying Libyan air space there is very little official info being given on the extent of Libyan air operations.

A chap on Sky News raised a very valid point. The west has equipped many middle eastern nations - Egypt, Saudi Arabia and others with sophisticated air craft. They have the bases adjacent to the nation. Why aren't they being prodded to police any no fly zone?

BrianD

Looks like NATO aren't seeking a no-fly zone but will increase maritime presence.

savagecabbages

Unless Gaddafi's forces start doing somehing really crazy, the way I see this going is Western nations arming the rebels, rather than doing the dirty work themselves.
I think this is happening already, but I can see this action being stepped up...

Victor

BrianD wrote: »

A chap on Sky News raised a very valid point. The west has equipped many middle eastern nations - Egypt, Saudi Arabia and others with sophisticated air craft. They have the bases adjacent to the nation. Why aren't they being prodded to police any no fly zone?

Egypt has just undergone a revolution and it probably would look good for the military government to get involved in other people's problems just now. Saudi is too far away.

Steyr

NATO AWACS E-3A tail nr LX-N90446, NATO 22 just hands over from NATO 01, currently in orbit FL290 in Maltese airspace-3 hours ago.

Steyr

Now-NATO AWACS E-3A tail nr LX-N90442, NATO 03 just hands over from NATO 22, currently in orbit FL290 in Maltese airspace.

the monk5845

could this be a stepping stone to a land invasion by UN/NATO troops? If Libyan air defenses engage UN or NATO aircraft or if missiles are fired at ships could this then be used as an excuse to launch an invasion or other land operations? just wondering.

Unless Gaddafi's forces start doing somehing really crazy, the way I see this going is Western nations arming the rebels, rather than doing the dirty work themselves.
I think this is happening already, but I can see this action being stepped up...

I'm not sure if western country's want to arm rebels as this seems to cause more trouble then it solves in the long run

savagecabbages

the monk5845 wrote: »

I'm not sure if western country's want to arm rebels as this seems to cause more trouble then it solves in the long run

Absolutely true. I just dont think theres enough will amongst the 'west' to start another possible Afghanistan or Iraq. Maybe if a certain G. Bush was still in office things might be different, but as I see it the most we'll see is a no-fly zone or up-arming/advising of rebel forces. Neither of which are sensible ways out of this debacle.

What do you guys think? Will we see a NATO/UN/EU involvement?

Manic Moran

If they really want the rebels to win, then yes.

NTM

BrianD

Victor wrote: »

Egypt has just undergone a revolution and it probably would look good for the military government to get involved in other people's problems just now. Saudi is too far away.

They could still put together a multi national Arab or African force and they could operate from Malta or wherever the western forces were going to operate from.

Time to put the ball in these guys courts. Did the west equip these guys for the sake of selling them something and keep the jobs going in Boeing or were they equipped to do a job? Time for the west to step back and let them step up.

Victor

BrianD wrote: »

Did the west equip these guys for the sake of selling them something and keep the jobs going in Boeing

Mostly this.

Separately, they were armed to reduce the Soviet Union's influence and to retain the existing pecking order (both within and between countries) except for the shift from supporting Iran to Saudi Arabia.

BrianD

I wonder will the push for a no fly zone over Bahrain be as strong as the one for Libya?

Manic Moran

BrianD wrote: »

I wonder will the push for a no fly zone over Bahrain be as strong as the one for Libya?

If the Bahraininan Air Force starts the same level of bombing and strafing, it's possible.

NTM

Steyr

Still interesting Aircraft coming and going in the Med.

Very special flight this evening DHC-8-202Q Dash 8 tail nr N349PH overhead Mediterranean, this one belongs to the USAF 524th SOS Cannon AFB
1:05 PM Mar 14th


First USAF Boeing E-3B Sentry tail nr 77-0352 landed as SHUCK 80 at Trapani Italy LICT
1:08 PM Mar 14th

Raging_Ninja

Looks like a no-fly zone will be too late in any case.

BlaasForRafa

Raging_Ninja wrote: »

Looks like a no-fly zone will be too late in any case.

All this dithering around for weeks by the UN/NATO/Arab League/Whoever has let Gaddafi have the time to regroup his forces and counter attack the rebels. A prime chance to get rid of a tyrant has been let slip away.

Its kind of sickening that a few mirage jets, a few dozen t-62s and some Katyusha rocket launchers has been enough to turn the tide of the war. A couple of days of F/A 18 and A-10 bombing would have disabled Gaddafi's forces completely.

Raging_Ninja

BlaasForRafa wrote: »

All this dithering around for weeks by the UN/NATO/Arab League/Whoever has let Gaddafi have the time to regroup his forces and counter attack the rebels. A prime chance to get rid of a tyrant has been let slip away.

Its kind of sickening that a few mirage jets, a few dozen t-62s and some Katyusha rocket launchers has been enough to turn the tide of the war. A couple of days of F/A 18 and A-10 bombing would have disabled Gaddafi's forces completely.

Thing is though, why didn't the ones who wanted the no-fly-zone go and actually, you know, set up one themselves. Surely between Egypt, Italy, Britain, etc they had enough to do the job.

Oh wait, they wanted the US to do it for them.

BrianD

Manic Moran wrote: »

If the Bahraininan Air Force starts the same level of bombing and strafing, it's possible.

NTM

Oh, so it's only when you use aircraft you get into trouble? So this has nothing to do democracy and is more of a levelling of the playing field between sides.

Like Libya, Bahrain is prime for western intervention. Oh I forgot, they're friendly despots and not recently de-friended despots!

Quite handy given that the US has assets there. They can just nip over the fence.

Manic Moran

Oh, so it's only when you use aircraft you get into trouble?So this has nothing to do democracy and is more of a levelling of the playing field between sides.

So it seems. I think it's a daft concept, there's not supposed to be any 'fair' business in a conflict. You play to win. And if the NFZ doesn't have any huge effect (and it won't), what's next? A no FROG zone? A no artillery zone? A no tank zone? A no heavy-machinegun zone? A no-anything-that-the-rebels-don't-have-an-equal-amount-of zone? It's stupid.

If intervening forces act to prevent Loyalist aircraft from conducting operations, they're taken sides, but not really provided any tangible assistance to the rebel forces, who are going to get crushed anyway. In effect, they piss absolutely everyone off and achieve nothing.

NTM