Cameron's Plan For No-Fly Zone Over Libya

Tabnabs

Gadaffi blinked first

1238: Libya's Foreign Minister says his country is committed to accept the UN Security Council resolution, and so has decided an immediate ceasefire and the stopping of all military operations.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12776418#video

maquiladora

Tabnabs wrote: »

Gadaffi blinked first



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12776418#video

France responds already

REU: FRANCE SAYS REMAINS CAUTIOUS AFTER LIBYAN CEASEFIRE ANNOUNCEMENT, "THREAT ON THE GROUND HAS NOT CHANGED"

BrianD

Tabnabs wrote: »

Gadaffi blinked first



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12776418#video

Which is now being regarded somewhat as a "stroke of genius". If a ceasefire is declared then the UN can't seen to be taking military action during the ceasefire. Puts the UN mandate in a difficult spot.

In the meantime his "police force" can continue about their business.

This is Iraq pre-2003 all over again. Nothing learned. If we want regime change - which seems to be the objective - then go in and do it.

What is worrying is that there seems to be very little political engagement going on with the rebels.

maquiladora

@cencio4 David Cenciotti
Breaking: Italian aircraft carrier Garibaldi, left Taranto for Libya. According to the news it's "fully armed". AV8Bs Harrier on board?

Reuters: Doctor in Libya's Misrata says govt forces still shelling city, 25 people killed

Libyan rebel commander says the Gadhafi ceasefire is "not important to us" - AFP

Morlar

maquiladora wrote: »

Libyan rebel commander says the Gadhafi ceasefire is "not important to us" - AFP

Does this mean the rebels will not recognise the ceasefire ?

Victor

maquiladora wrote: »

I wonder will we see Scuds being fired at Lampedusa again....

Again? has it happened before?

maquiladora

Morlar wrote: »

Does this mean the rebels will not recognise the ceasefire ?

It does sound like they are dismissing it.

Gaddafi ceasefire is a 'bluff': rebels

AFP

The commander of rebels fighting to overthrow Muammar Gaddafi says the Libyan strongman is "bluffing", reacting to news that the government had announcement an immediate ceasefire.

Khalifa Heftir told a press conference the ceasefire "is not important to us"; Gaddafi is "bluffing".

"Gaddafi does not speak any truth ... All the world knows that Muammar Gaddafi is a liar.

"He and his sons, and his family, and all those with him are liars."

If the rebels still want to push to Tripoli and force Gaddafi out then they are not going to be too interested in a ceasefire that just maintains the status quo. Not to mention the fact that a ceasefire now might throw a spanner in the works for air strikes along with the no fly zone.

If the reports from Misrata are true then the ceasefire doesn't even exist (yet) anyway...

maquiladora

Victor wrote: »

Again? has it happened before?

On April 15, 1986, Libya fired two Scuds at the U.S. Coast Guard navigation station on the Italian island, in retaliation for the American bombing of Tripoli and Benghazi, and the death of Colonel Gaddafi's daughter. However, the missiles passed over the island, landing in the sea, and caused no damage.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lampedusa

hmmm

Gadaffi may have announced a ceasefire for worldwide media consumption, but his forces are still attacking. Misrata is under siege and being shelled as are towns in the South. Ajdabia is under siege.

There were reports that 2 FROGs were seen on the road to Misrata this morning.

There are two things I see as interesting
1. Will the UN forces help to break sieges? Misrata will fall because it has no water or power, simply if Gadaffi maintains the siege
2. Gadaffi was fitting rockets on civilian ships and using them to bombard coastal towns - will the UN forces be willing to sink what are ostensibly civilian ships if needs be?

maquiladora

Al Jazeera reporter in Tripoli is hearing substantial loud explosions west of Tripoli.

maquiladora

Photo taken today, 2 RAF E-3Ds and a U-2 at RAF Akrotiri.

Steyr

Breaking: Italian Defence Minister: "if necessary Italy will join the coalition with radar suppression assets" i.e. Tornado ECR of 155 Gr.

Italy has given Amendola, Gioia del Colle, Decimomannu, Aviano, Trapani, Sigonella and Pantelleria to the coalition of the willing.

Italian aircraft carrier Garibaldi, left Taranto for Libya. According to the news it's "fully armed". AV8Bs Harrier on board.

Netherlands Coastguard NCG03 Dornier 228-212 tail nr PH-CGN operating VFR near Malta.

Three USAF 318th SOS PZL M-28 Skytruck from Cannon AFB arrived last night at NAS Sigonella tail nrs N824KD, N319TW and N317JG.

Over Italy heading Malta: French Air Force E-3F Sentry tail nr 202/36-CB as FAF 9008.

______

All within the last few hours.

maquiladora

U.S. officials say attempts to ground Gadhafi's air force could begin by Sunday or Monday with the use of jet fighters, bombers and surveillance aircraft.

http://www.9and10news.com/Category/Story/?id=285248&cID=3

Could be disinformation.

Anyway, Obama to speak later this evening.

BrianD

maquiladora wrote: »

@cencio4 David Cenciotti
Breaking: Italian aircraft carrier Garibaldi, left Taranto for Libya. According to the news it's "fully armed". AV8Bs Harrier on board?

Is it ever not fully armed?

Libyan rebel commander says the Gadhafi ceasefire is "not important to us" - AFP

Here starts the problem. Unilateral cease fire by the government. None by the rebels .... is there a united rebel front? Will one rebel group decide to keep going regardless if an overall cease fire is declared? Which rebel group is more legitimate than the other?

Are we going to end up with a stalemate of two mobs with ak47s. Will the west provide military aid to the rebels?

Apparently there is also the tribes in the Libyan interior who have so far sat on the fence.

maquiladora

BrianD wrote: »

Here starts the problem. Unilateral cease fire by the government. None by the rebels .... is there a united rebel front? Will one rebel group decide to keep going regardless if an overall cease fire is declared? Which rebel group is more legitimate than the other?

According to doctors at a medical center in Misurata that town is still getting shelled by Gaddafi forces. No video proof yet so have to take it with a pinch of salt & it could just be a case of delay in communication from Tripoli to forces in the field but it seems there may not be a ceassefire yet anyway.

Also, looking at the wording of the UN resolution....

all necessary measures...to protect civilians and civilian populated areas under threat of attack

...seems to authorise force even if there is a ceasefire in place. E.g. tanks surrounding a town but not firing is still a civilian area "under threat".

BrianD

maquiladora wrote: »

According to doctors at a medical center in Misurata that town is still getting shelled by Gaddafi forces. No video proof yet so have to take it with a pinch of salt & it could just be a case of delay in communication from Tripoli to forces in the field but it seems there may not be a ceassefire yet anyway.

Also, looking at the wording of the UN resolution....



...seems to authorise force even if there is a ceasefire in place. E.g. tanks surrounding a town but not firing is still a civilian area "under threat".

I have noted that. But if you start attacking ground forces then you rapidly move into a state of war even if it is within the resolution.

Destroy the Gaddaffy hardware and it's down to who has most AK47s and prepared to use them.

The military solution will only bring about a stalemate. Political dialogue seems to be lacking.

hmmm

Al Jazeera are reporting that Gadaffi troops are advancing on Benghazi tonight. They've bypassed Ajdabia and are 50km away they say.

Steyr

UK Sentinel R1's active ASCOT 7352 tail nr ZJ691 at FL270 and SNAPSHOT 1 tail nr ZJ693 at FL450.

hmmm

And these on the way

FMCNL
Canadian Air Force CFC3815 & CFC3816 are Airbus CC-150 Polaris Tankers, I presume formation flight /w 6 Hornets CF-18

Steyr

CFC 3816 with position reports /w Gander 5616.0 kHz: 57N40W 20:28 FL250, 57N30W 21:19 FL270

maquiladora

hmmm wrote: »

Al Jazeera are reporting that Gadaffi troops are advancing on Benghazi tonight. They've bypassed Ajdabia and are 50km away they say.

Seems to be backed up by this.

RT @Reuters: FLASH: Gaddafi forces continuing to advance toward Benghazi despite proclaimed ceasefire: U.S. National Security official

hmmm

Video from Misrata, claimed to be today. Burning MBTs and APC
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJI57boOfEs

maquiladora

Sounds like the US will not actually be actively enforcing the NFZ...

Obama told Congressional leaders that "he had not authorized troops on the ground or airplanes," a staffer to one of the Congress members said Friday on condition of anonymity. "He stressed the U.S. is diplomatically supporting the no-fly zone, not the enforcement itself."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_theenvoy/20110318/pl_yblog_theenvoy/obama-outlines-limited-u-s-role-in-libya

hmmm

maquiladora wrote: »

Sounds like the US will not actually be actively enforcing the NFZ...

That'd be extraordinary, I hope it's not true. The last thing that's needed is for a couple of Rafales and Typhoons to fly around impotently and for Gadaffi to realise he hasn't much to fear. That would lead to all sorts of complications both now and in the future.

Obama did say that the US would "enable" the no fly zone, so that doesn't rule out cruise missiles and attacks on radar etc.

LondonIrish90

hmmm wrote: »

That'd be extraordinary, I hope it's not true. The last thing that's needed is for a couple of Rafales and Typhoons to fly around impotently and for Gadaffi to realise he hasn't much to fear. That would lead to all sorts of complications both now and in the future.

Obama did say that the US would "enable" the no fly zone, so that doesn't rule out cruise missiles and attacks on radar etc.

I saw on twitter that Tornado GR4s have also been stationed at RAF Akrotiri along with the Typhoons.

OS119

hmmm wrote: »

That'd be extraordinary, I hope it's not true. The last thing that's needed is for a couple of Rafales and Typhoons to fly around impotently and for Gadaffi to realise he hasn't much to fear. That would lead to all sorts of complications both now and in the future.

Obama did say that the US would "enable" the no fly zone, so that doesn't rule out cruise missiles and attacks on radar etc.

i don't think i'd ever describe Typhoons or Rafales with AWACS, Tanker and ELINT support as 'impotent'. i can think of one platform such a force might have a problem with, but Libya certainly doesn't have them...

Barry may not be sending USAF F-15's, but he's certainly sending U-2's, Tankers, AWACS, combat search and rescue units, ELINTS and all the business.

Steyr

I note that 2 Nimrods that were due to be scrapped are now being kept..


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-12782642


Libya's Gaddafi given ultimatum

The ceasefire announced by Col Gaddafi is highly unlikely to halt the military planning which is going on.

The pressure from the UN may have worked in the short term, but France, the UK and others will need reassurance that this is more than a delaying tactic from the Libyan leader.

The United Nations backed "all necessary measures", short of using ground forces, to protect the civilian population in Libya.

It's a far more wide-ranging resolution than some had anticipated, and one which gives a "coalition of the willing" carte blanche to take on not only Col Gaddafi's air defences and air force, but also his ground forces if they were to continue to threaten civilians.

'A military lead'

Those countries taking part in the coalition still need to decide who leads this mission, and what action they will take if the ceasefire breaks down.

It is not yet clear who the commander of the operation will be, where it will be headquartered and what Nato assets might be used.

The fact that the British Prime Minister is going to France on Saturday could be an indication that, having taken the diplomatic lead on recognising the rebels, France is also keen to take a military lead.

That meeting will be a chance to discuss what happens next, and how the pressure can be kept up to ensure the ceasefire holds.

According to David Cameron, Britain will deploy Tornados and Typhoon aircraft, as well as air-to-air refuelling and surveillance aircraft.

He told Parliament on Friday that preparations to deploy those aircraft had already started, and that in the coming hours they would move to airbases from where they could start to take the necessary action.

The Tornado GR4, equipped with precision weapons, is among the first assets the UK could use to defend a no-fly zone to protect Libyan civilians from action by forces loyal to Col Gaddafi.

The planes are stationed at RAF Marham in Norfolk and RAF Lossiemouth in Moray, though it is not yet clear which military base they would ultimately fly from. The options include bases in southern France, southern Italy or RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus.

GR4s are ground attack aircraft, so could be used either to remove Libya's air defences if that were still deemed to be necessary, or to protect civilians from the ground forces which currently pose the main threat.

Potential targets

Typhoons, based at RAF Coningsby in Lincolnshire and RAF Leuchars in Fife, would be likely to be used in an air-to-air role if Col Gaddafi's air force challenged the no-fly zone.

VC10 tankers could perform refuelling and Nimrod R1 and Sentinel R1 are also likely to be involved in surveillance and reconnaissance.

Those performing the missions in the air will also need good intelligence from the ground, whether that is from rebel forces or foreign special forces based in Libya, not least to ensure that there are no civilians in or near potential targets.

Civilian casualties are one of the main risks of such an air operation if Libyan troops were to move closer to the city.

In effect, there are two air missions to be carried out: one to establish a round-the-clock no-fly zone, and the other to prevent Libyan forces bombarding or approaching Benghazi if the ceasefire fails.

Both operations might require the destruction of some of the Libyan government's air defences, although it is not yet clear whether this would be done at the start of any operation, or only if and when coalition aircraft are engaged by Libyan government radars.

French and British aircraft are certain to be involved in policing the no-fly zone, though Paris and London will be keen for Arab air force involvement as well, even if mainly in support roles. It's thought Qatar and the UAE are the most likely to join the coalition.

The goal of the UN resolution was to get a ceasefire and halt the fighting, so the shock effect seems to have worked - for now, at least. It has demonstrated to Col Gaddafi and his forces that the outside world is serious about preventing harm to Libyan civilians.

This crisis in Libya and recent events across the Middle East may well help the RAF, which had to fight its corner in the British government's strategic defence and security review in October, and is currently doing so again, with further MoD cuts apparently needing to be made for 2011-12.

The RAF had feared losing more of its Tornado GR4 fleet in order to save up to £300m a year, and may now be able to argue a stronger case for keeping them on.

Nimrod R1s are also showing how crucial they are in a reconnaissance role, while the Sentinel R1 - scheduled to be scrapped by early 2015 in the review, once their role in Afghanistan is finished - is also again proving its worth.

Many in defence have already expressed their regret about the loss of HMS Ark Royal and the Harriers.

Some will now be wondering whether the Libya crisis could call more of the strategic defence and security review's conclusions into question, and perhaps even prompt a fresh look at the UK's military assets.

Some analysts question whether a government wishing to take a leading role on the world stage can afford to lose yet more military capability and personnel at a time when world events are proving more unpredictable than ever.

maquiladora

Some pics of preparations at RAF Marham Friday morning :

Steyr

USAF KC-10A tail nr 86-0036 as RCH 559, just switched ident in flight to RCH 036 at FL290 while overhead Mediterranean Sea.

USAF KC-10A tail nr 86-0036 now as RCH 036 in climb to FL340 heading Italy.

hmmm

OS119 wrote: »

i don't think i'd ever describe Typhoons or Rafales with AWACS, Tanker and ELINT support as 'impotent'. i can think of one platform such a force might have a problem with, but Libya certainly doesn't have them...

Unless they're sending fleets of them they won't be much use against a hundred tanks attacking Benghazi, Misrata and Tobruk.