Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Saturday, 14 April, 2012
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ALERT for frosts and icy sections on roads early today and again on Sunday morning mostly well inland and in valleys. ADVANCE ALERT for possible strong winds in western counties on Tuesday, gusts to 70 mph possible.

TODAY ... Early frost, then partly cloudy, quite cold for mid-April, wintry showers of hail or snow possible in parts of east and north, isolated and non-wintry showers more likely in south and west, winds NE 15-30 mph adding chill ... highs about 8-10 C. There could be some rather prolonged sunny intervals in western half of the country.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, quite cold with frosts developing and lows between -3 and +2 C.

SUNDAY ... Clear and quite cold to start, then sunny with increasing cloud, light winds most of the day becoming southeast to south by evening and increasing to 20-40 mph as rain (sleet higher northern locations) spreads in from west. Highs 9-12 C but may be achieved late after quite a cool mid-day 7-9 C.

MONDAY ... Breezy and cool with periods of rain in a steady S-SW wind of about 25-40 mph, morning temperatures rising after midnight when it could be as cold as -2 C, then about 5 C daybreak and 10-12 C mid-day. Rainfalls of about 10 mms on average can be expected.

TUESDAY ... Showers or periods of rain, steadily increasing winds from SW veering to WNW by evening and rising to 45-70 mph in western counties with some severe gusts by afternoon and evening. These stronger winds are likely to be confined to coastal regions from about Donegal to Cork, while the rest of the country remains under a slacker gradient and more moderate winds, with low pressure dropping southeast through Ireland (stay tuned for more reliable tracking and timing). Highs 9-12 C, rainfalls about 15-25 mms.

WEDNESDAY ... Strong winds moderating but these 20-40 mph NW-N winds then spreading to all regions, staying quite chilly with outbreaks of rain or drizzle, morning lows 3-5 C and highs 8-10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Windy and rather cool, unsettled through end of week and into the following weekend, and possibly very chilly for late April in the week after that as guidance currently indicates a wintry northeast flow that could be barely milder than 5 C daytime. This may moderate in more reliable forecast time but something to keep watching ... quite a contrast from April 2011 !

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The main story will be a major outbreak of severe thunderstorms with high tornadic risk in Oklahoma and nearby parts of Kansas, Arkansas and Texas. Some rather heavy storms are already firing off but the main action will come during the evening in that time zone (tonight or around midnight to 0600h in Ireland) ... less severe storms will spread much further east during the day and warm, humid air will flood north to reach the Ohio valley and mid-Atlantic states; ahead of that, warm but not yet humid, temperatures in the low 20s. Showers or periods of rain in most of the prairies and northern plains from the remnants of the Alberta snowstorm which is still dropping some light snow in north-central Alberta today (Calgary had 15-30 cms yesterday). Sunny intervals and mild on the west coast.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday started cloudy but became sunny by mid-day and the high was about 13 C.

Monday, 16 April, 2012
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ALERT for strong winds on Tuesday with gusts to about 60-65 mph, but latest guidance indicates that these may only reach "alert" strength offshore and across Kerry and nearby parts of Clare, Limerick and Cork.

TODAY ... Intervals of rain and strong southerly winds 30-50 mph, veering more to southwest 25-45 mph by afternoon and evening, potential for 10-20 mms of rain, highs about 11 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain, drizzle and fog with southwest winds veering more westerly by morning with partial clearing to follow, winds generally 20-40 mph, a further 5-10 mms rain likely, with lows of 6-8 C.

TUESDAY ... Early morning squally showers and strong westerly winds developing near west coast, backing slightly to southwest, 40-60 mph ... rest of the country variable cloud, some light rain at times, winds SE 15-30 mph ... by afternoon, the strong winds on the west coast becoming more confined to west Munster as an interval of relatively calm winds develops near low pressure centre ... further rainfalls, sleet on some hills, temperatures steady between 7-9 C (except 10-13 C Kerry). Potential for about 15-25 mms rain. By evening, strong west to northwest winds on outer west coast, and developing moderate northerlies elsewhere with the calm centre now closer to the southeast counties.

At this point it appears that the very strong winds generated by the low might stay largely offshore although exposed parts of Kerry would be in line to receive them during the afternoon. This is based on a track from about Mayo southeast to Waterford for the low centre. This could change again at the last minute so an alert should be maintained for all western counties and parts of the south in case the forecast zone of strong winds shifts north and east again.

WEDNESDAY ... After overnight moderate northerlies and drizzle or light rain, the day will become partly to mostly cloudy with bands of showers, some with hail, and moderate northerly winds 20-40 mph, quite chilly, temperatures steady around 7-9 C. Potential for 5-10 mms rain.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, slightly milder, lows 3-5 C and highs in the range 10-12 C. Winds northwest 20-40 mph.

FRIDAY and WEEKEND ... Windy at times, unsettled, cool with frequent showers and temperatures generally in the range of 7-11 C. Another interval of stronger winds likely Monday, then a turn to more northerly winds that could bring slightly colder weather still.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Showers and thunderstorms continue to move gradually east through the Great Lakes, Ohio and Tennessee valleys and the southeast, with the east coast still warm and dry for today -- their turn comes tomorrow, and meanwhile the front will drop temperatures from near 20 C to about 7-10 C before clearing develops in the regions affected. Clearing and chilly in most of the central states and prairie provinces, and cloudy with isolated outbreaks of light rain in the far west.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunday was mostly cloudy and the high was about 12 C.

UPDATE _ Monday, 11:55 p.m.
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The 18z GFS run, as well as the 18z RGEM which cuts off west of Ireland but shows the position of the low in similar to GFS guidance at 12h and 24h, have not changed the outlook and so we continue to watch for the strongest winds to hit the southwest on Tuesday afternoon.

Next update at the regular forecast time around 0630h.

Wednesday, 18 April, 2012
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TODAY ... Some isolated heavy showers in the southeast this morning, with risk of hail (mainly higher parts of south Dublin and Wicklow), also scattered but less intense showers in west Connacht. The day will begin partly cloudy or even sunny elsewhere but bands of showers, some heavy with hail, could develop in various places later, so a day of radar watching ahead ... winds generally N to NE 15-30 mph with some higher gusts. Highs 9-12 C milder where sunshine lasts longer. Rainfalls about 10-15 mms possible in heavier showers, but many places trace to 3 mms.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, continuing showers or periods of light rain, winds N to NE 15-30 mph, lows 5-7 C.

THURSDAY ... Little change in an unsettled northeast flow with bands of showers, some sunny breaks, the risk of hail and moderate NE winds. Highs around 10 C. Rainfalls mostly 2-5 mms.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, further showers, winds backing somewhat to NW 20-30 mph which may increase the frequency of showers in Connacht and west Munster while reducing it somewhat in the east. Lows 3-5 C and highs around 8-10 C. Rainfalls generally 3-7 mms.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Unsettled, showery, cool ... lows 2-5 C with risk of isolated frost, highs 9-11 C. Rainfalls over the weekend about 5-10 mms.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Intervals of rain or drizzle and continuing rather chilly with temperatures unlikely to move much higher than 12-14 C.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... A rather quiet and mild pattern in general across most of the U.S. with one area of showers and thunderstorms moving away from the central plains towards the western Great Lakes, highs almost everywhere a bit above normal, 15-20 C northeast states and Ohio valley, to 20-25 C southeast and 25-30 C southern plains where increasingly humid. The Canadian prairies remain a bit on the cool side in a slowly moderating easterly flow of arctic origins, and this slowly becomes more cloudy further west with outbreaks of light rain.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Tuesday was cloudy with a few periods of light rain or drizzle, and highs about 10-12 C.

Friday, 20 April, 2012
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TODAY ... Showers now mainly in western counties will spread further east and intensify, with some hail and thunder. Rainfalls, rather variable, will be anywhere from 5 to 15 mms. Highs 10-12 C, and winds NW 15-30 mph.

TONIGHT ... Showers dying out, some clear intervals developing, rather chilly with local frost, lows -1 to +3 C.

SATURDAY ... Similar to today with a partly cloudy start and showers developing rather gradually through the morning, then becoming widespread and rather heavy later, rainfalls again 5-15 mms, and highs 10-12 C.

SUNDAY ... Following a dry and perhaps frosty start, the day will feature increasing cloud and the onset of rain by evening, lows -1 to +3 C and highs from 8-11 C.

MONDAY ... Periods of rain, becoming heavy at times, potential for 30-50 mms in this event (15-30 mms north), lows near 6 C and highs near 10 C, some fog developing as the rain intensifies.

TUESDAY ... Rain tapering to showers but with the possibility of heavy hail showers in the mix, winds becoming moderate northerly, chilly, possible sleet on hills, lows 2-5 C and highs 7-9 C.

OUTLOOK ... A second storm system moving just south of Ireland mid-week could bring a further heavy rainfall and it could be cold enough to consider some potential for snow especially on hills, in a northeast flow, but eventually this should become more moderate easterly and a slight warming trend could develop, although nothing very dramatic. My view on the theorized "very cold May" is that this may prove somewhat accurate, at least in terms of a cool and wet first half to the month, but I am not sold on the idea of a record-breaking average temperature as there could be warmer spells too.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... A warm and dry sector in the eastern states will be gradually eroded by expansion of showers on all sides, but states near Ohio, West Virginia and eastern Kentucky will enjoy another dry day with highs 20-25 C. In the rain, closer to 15-18 C. Somewhat colder air is spreading south again in central regions north of Missouri-Kansas, and a wet frontal system is moving inland in B.C. and Washington state, all with near normal temperatures, but it remains warm to hot and dry in the southwest spreading into Texas and Oklahoma.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Thursday was basically a dismal day of low cloud, drizzle and later heavy rain, highs near 11 C. We are being warned about widespread river flooding in a few weeks as the snow pack in B.C. is apparently 10-50 per cent above normal depending on region, the heavier packs are in central regions.

Sunday, 22 April, 2012
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ALERT continued for possible heavy rainfalls in the coming week. Total rainfalls of 50-75 mms will accumulate, with the heavier amounts in the inland south.

TODAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, scattered showers becoming rather heavy in a few places later, risk of hail and thunder ... rainfall amounts for most 2-5 mms. Highs 11-13 C.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals at first in east and north could allow temperatures to fall as low as 2-5 C but in the west and south, cloud followed by rain around midnight, lows 5-8 C. The rain will spread rather slowly east and may miss a few parts of the north.

MONDAY ... Morning showers or periods of rain, winds becoming moderate northeast 15-30 mph, gradual clearing in parts of the northwest spreading somewhat further south although continued showers in the south, rainfalls including the earlier overnight generally 20-40 mms, heaviest in southeast, although amounts may be 5-15 mms in north. Highs 10-12 C.

TUESDAY ... Some showers continuing in southeast and near east coast, a more settled interval further west, as northeast backing to northwest winds die out briefly, so quite a mixed bag of weather including some sunny intervals further west, rather chilly for time of year, morning lows 3-5 C except near -1 C in some parts of the north with local frost, highs 9-11 C.

TUESDAY NIGHT and WEDNESDAY ... Rain arriving in the southwest Tuesday evening will gradually spread across the south in strong east to southeast winds and there may be some locally heavy downpours, with sleet possible on higher ground as temperatures near sea level stay close to 6-8 C. The rain may once again avoid parts of the far north or at least will be quite light there, but other regions could see a steady downpour and 30-60 mms of rain by late Wednesday as winds continue quite strong from the east at 30-50 mph, adding a chill to temperatures in the 7-9 C range (3-6 C on higher ground). Spot flooding may develop especially from about Cork east to Wexford and perhaps as far north as Offaly to Dublin/Meath. Some models are taking this storm a bit further south than others, so forecasts could shift around somewhat between now and Tuesday.

THURSDAY ... Very cool and windy with continued rain becoming sleety at times, snow a definite risk on higher ground as temperatures could fall to between 2 and 5 C (5-8 C near sea level). Some parts of Donegal and Derry could be in a dry zone with some sunshine and this would allow temperatures to rise a bit higher there. Winds NE 30-50 mph adding quite a chill. A further 10 to 30 mms of rain possible.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, still some drizzle or sleet in a cold northeast wind but with longer sunny breaks in parts of the northwest. Lows 2-4 C and highs 7-9 C with the chance of some very low daytime temperatures on higher ground in the southeast. Winds moderating somewhat to 20-35 mph.

OUTLOOK ... There may be some slight improvements under weak ridges of high pressure around the weekend or end of April but some further cold and unsettled episodes could then redevelop in early May.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... A heavy rainstorm is slowly developing for New England, upstate New York, Quebec and eastern Ontario. This will last through today and much of Monday and could bring 100-200 mms of rain and flooding, with temperatures falling to about 10-12 C. Further west, cloudy and chilly in a northerly flow not much above freezing. Clear in much of the central third of the U.S. and warming up gradually, with hot and dry weather in parts of the south central and southwest states. Mild and sunny in the Canadian prairies, but cloudy and showery on the west coast.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Saturday was a warm, sunny day with increasing high cloud and highs near 16 C.

Astronomy note: New moon slipped by yesterday around 0820h and the very thin crescent of the new moon could be seen shortly after sunset near Jupiter in the west -- binoculars might be needed. Venus is still quite bright and a lot higher up, the Moon moves past it on Tuesday evening.

Tuesday, 24 April, 2012
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ALERT upgraded to STORM WATCH ... Heavy rainfalls and very strong winds are likely to set in tonight in the south and spread rapidly to most parts of Ireland on Wednesday, lasting well into Thursday. Rainfalls of 30 to 60 mms are expected, with wind gusts (mostly from the northeast) to about 60 mph (100 km/hr) in exposed locations and 50 mph elsewhere. Some flooding is possible, together with very high tides on the east coast.

Forecasts:

TODAY ... Variable cloud with some sunshine to start in a few parts of the east and north, showers spreading east in southern counties mainly, some becoming heavy later with thunder and hail, rainfalls 3-8 mms on average but possibly 10-15 mms locally. Highs 9-12 C mildest in the southwest.

TONIGHT and WEDNESDAY ... Rain arriving in the southwest Tuesday evening will gradually spread across the south in strong east to southeast winds and there may be some locally heavy downpours, with sleet possible on higher ground as temperatures near sea level stay close to 6-8 C. Winds backing to ENE 40-60 mph with some very strong gusts in exposed locations, very high tides likely around Dublin. The rain may once again avoid parts of the far north or at least will be quite light there for much of the storm, but other regions could see a steady downpour with embedded thunderstorms and 30-60 mms of rain by late Wednesday as winds continue quite strong from the east at 35-55mph in exposed locations, adding a chill to temperatures in the 7-9 C range and 3-6 C on higher ground. Spot flooding may develop especially from about Cork east to Wexford and perhaps as far north as Offaly to Dublin/Meath. The one positive factor is the previous dry spell that has given some potential for rivers and soils to absorb a large fraction of this storm's rainfall.

The models are now converging on a track from south of Cork across Wales into northern England that will be slow-moving, intense and close enough to Ireland to place the country under heavy bands of rain. Some models show a 970 mb centre near the M5 buoy mid-day Wednesday.

THURSDAY ... Very cool and windy with continued rain becoming sleety at times, snow a definite risk on higher ground as temperatures could fall to between 2 and 5 C (5-8 C near sea level). Some parts of Donegal and Derry could be in a dry zone with some sunshine or at least blue skies off to north, and this would allow temperatures to rise a bit higher there. Winds moderating to NE 30-50 mph but still adding quite a chill particularly near east coast. A further 10 to 30 mms of rain possible, with a drying trend slowly setting in for parts of the west. Saturated fields could flood out onto nearby roads after this much prolonged rainfall.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, still some drizzle or sleet in a cold northeast wind but with longer sunny breaks in parts of the northwest. Lows 2-4 C and highs 7-9 C with the chance of some very low daytime temperatures on higher ground in the southeast. Winds moderating somewhat to 20-35 mph. Some inland locations could moderate somewhat but now Donegal and Derry could catch the outer edges of even colder air offshore and see some wintry showers especially on higher ground.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... A secondary low from France is expected to drift north into Wales before weakening, and this could spread rain back into the southeast at times on Saturday into Sunday, but it could turn out just low cloud and/or drizzle with some clearing further north and west. Both days are likely to be colder than average but milder than Friday at about 10-12 C daytime, 3-5 C nights. The further outlook is for unsettled but somewhat milder conditions at times, although not much higher than 14 C at peak, with the continued chance of brief colder spells. The long-range trend through May is likely to be one of gradual improvement towards a warm, dry finish.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Cold and windy with outbreaks of snow, sleet or ice pellets mixing with rain at lower elevations in the northeast states and Great Lakes, highs mainly 3-7 C to about 10-12 C coastal regions. Heavy rains and strong southeast winds in the Maritimes of Canada. Otherwise, large parts of the southern U.S. and all of the central states will be warm and dry, trending to hot in the southwest, with a scattering of thunderstorms over the northern Rockies in advance of somewhat cooler air sagging south across Alberta and central B.C. ... colder arctic air is confined to the northern territories of Canada but will be making a strong push south to reinforce the current chill in the Great Lakes over the weekend, so wintry weather is not quite done yet in that region.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Monday was mostly cloudy but rather warm still, with highs near 18 C.

Check in for updates especially around 5-6 p.m., and see the storm thread on this forum for many other details.

Wednesday, 25 April, 2012
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Storm warning for Leinster, Munster and nearby parts of Connacht and Ulster. Some local rainfalls today and tomorrow in the 30-60 mm range, especially for inland southeast, and very strong winds from E-NE gusting to about 60 mph (100 km/hr) in exposed areas later today.

TODAY ... Rain, becoming heavy at times, will gradually spread across the south and east in strong east to northeast winds and there may be some locally heavy downpours, with sleet possible on higher ground (above 500m) as temperatures near sea level stay close to 6-8 C. Winds rapidly increasing to ENE 40-60 mph with some very strong gusts in exposed locations, very high tides likely around Dublin.

The stronger winds will spread more gradually into the west and north reaching NE 25-45 mph except higher in a few outflow channels such as Galway Bay. Hills in Connacht may block out these winds from some locations at times. The rain will spread slowly north and northwest but Donegal, Derry and some nearby parts of other counties may remain dry except for local drizzle, and some sunshine may continue there. It will be chilly despite that with highs similarly 6-8 C.

TONIGHT ... The inland southeast and some parts of the east will see a steady downpour with embedded thunderstorms and totals of 30-60 mms of rain by late this evening or early morning, as winds continue quite strong from the northeast at 35-55 mph in exposed locations, adding a chill to temperatures in the 6-8 C range and 3-6 C on higher ground. Spot flooding may develop especially from about Cork east to Wexford and perhaps as far north as Offaly to Dublin/Meath. Rain will spread over most other northern counties except possibly north Donegal, but may become sporadic in the west, in northeast to north winds about 20-40 mph, and lows near 3-5 C. Some sleet could develop on northern hills late tonight.

THURSDAY ... Very cool and windy with continued rain becoming sleety at times, snow a definite risk on higher ground as temperatures could fall to between 2 and 5 C (high 5-8 C near sea level). Some parts of Donegal and Derry could be in a dry zone at times, with some sunshine or at least blue skies off to north, and this would allow temperatures to rise a bit higher there. Winds moderating to NE 30-50 mph early and then NNE 20-40 mph later, but still adding quite a chill particularly near east coast. A further 10 to 30 mms of rain possible in eastern counties, with a drying trend slowly setting in for parts of the west and south. Saturated fields could flood out onto nearby roads after this much prolonged rainfall around Meath, Kildare, Laois, Carlow, parts of Wicklow and west Dublin.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, still some drizzle or sleet in a cold northeast wind but with longer sunny breaks in parts of the northwest. Lows 2-4 C and highs 7-9 C with the chance of some very low daytime temperatures on higher ground in the southeast. Winds moderating somewhat to 20-35 mph. Some inland locations could moderate somewhat but now Donegal and Derry could catch the outer edges of even colder air offshore and see some wintry showers especially on higher ground.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, some outbreaks of drizzle or sleet, cold, lows about 1-4 C and highs 7-10 C. Light to moderate northerly winds at times.

SUNDAY into MONDAY ... A secondary low from France is expected to drift northwest into Ireland before weakening, and this could spread rain back into the southeast at times on Saturday night or Sunday, but it could turn out just low cloud and/or drizzle with some clearing further north and west. The chance of this rainfall becoming heavier than 10 mms is about 50-60% and heavier than 30 mms about 30%. There is some chance the event will not materialize and an improved scenario could develop. Models have several rather different solutions this morning.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... With this much uncertainty at days 5-6, beyond Monday the most likely outcome seems to be generally cool and somewhat unsettled but with the potential for some dry days and sunshine with those at times, in a generally slack circulation featuring light east or northeast winds frequently but the uncertainty around this remains high.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The pool of unseasonably cold air in the east has spread almost to Newfoundland now, dropping temperatures across the western Maritimes and eastern Quebec, but as cloud breaks up somewhat further west, temperatures are recovering under strong late April sunshine to near 10 C. Some wintry showers continue near Georgian Bay and Lake Ontario, snow on higher ground. A complex disturbance over the northern plains states is bringing outbreaks of rain that trend to sleet or wet snow near Lake Superior, and all of this is slowly sliding southeast to set up a long frontal boundary situation for the northeast states later this week with sleety rain likely for several days. The plains states will be warm anywhere south of this frontal boundary trending to hot and dry in parts of the southwest. Outbreaks of showery rain are moving across the Rockies into southern Alberta and the warmth there is slowly dissipating as slack fronts move south towards Montana.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Tuesday was a wet day with heavy showers at times, highs of about 15 C.

Friday, 27 April, 2012
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals in central to southwest counties. Outbreaks of light rain from east Ulster south to Waterford could become sleety especially on higher ground, but accumulations light, 2-4 mms. Another area of showers in the northwest could become wintry on higher ground and snow on hills is possible, probably melting hail showers lower down, all of this with steady N winds 15-35 mph and chilly highs 7-10 C (even colder on higher terrain where highs could be 4-6 C).

TONIGHT ... Remnants of drizzly light rain could turn more to sleet while dying out to a widespread mist or ground fog in northeast winds 10-15 mph, quite cold especially if skies clear inland for a while, lows -2 to +3 C. Frost may develop in lower elevations well inland.

SATURDAY ... Morning mist or fog, drizzle, and quite chilly, then some sunshine later morning and mid-day, with the exception of a few showers moving westward (this could be anywhere between a sprinkling of light showers to moderate hail showers with some thunder depending on how things evolve) ... highs 8-11 C. Winds NE 15-30 mph becoming more gusty in the southeast than elsewhere.

SUNDAY ... Another cold and perhaps frosty start with ground fog and low cloud spreading in, morning lows -2 to +3 C, then increasing cloud and a strengthening ENE wind reaching 30-50 mph south coast, 20-40 mph elsewhere, and periods of rain or drizzle. Amounts 15-30 mms southeast trending to 5-10 mms inland northwest and Ulster, possibly dry Donegal.

MONDAY ... The rainfall should persist overnight into Monday then will be retracted south as the low drifts away in that direction, but some continued moderate falls 10-20 mms are possible in the south. Gradual clearing from the north will follow and winds will ease to NE 10-20 mph. Lows 6-8 C and highs 10-13 C.

OUTLOOK ... A very gradual warming trend is likely with generally east to southeast winds, occasionally backing to northeast. There could be further outbreaks of light rain in the far south mainly. Highs generally rising to the mid-teens or so. Another cold spell could follow, so plant with caution.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Unseasonably cold with moderate northerly winds from the Great Lakes to western Newfoundland, highs 2-5 C near U.S. border, 5-10 C inland northeast U.S. and New England, 10-15 C east coast. Eastern Newfoundland will have mild southerly winds and rain, 12-15 C.

Further west, outbreaks of rain or sleet in the western Great Lakes and most of the prairies, turning colder in most places with winds backing to northeast. Heavy showers and thunderstorms in the central plains states with near normal temperatures, but hot and humid in the south central and southeast states, hot and dry in the southwest. Improving on the west coast from partly to mostly sunny later.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Thursday was cloudy to start with drizzle, but gradually turned partly cloudy by late afternoon. It was rather warm, 15-16 C.

Sunday, 29 April, 2012
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ALERT (somewhat marginal) for rainfalls of 25-35 mms and wind gusts to about 55 mph (90 km/hr) in parts of the south and east later today and overnight into Monday.

TODAY ... Hazy sunshine at first, this continuing much of the day in the north and west, with low cloud spreading into the south followed by increasing northeast winds 20-40 mph, veering to east 30-50 mph by evening, periods of rain or drizzle, average amounts 10-15 mms, local maximum 25 mms. This rain may not reach much further north than Galway to Athlone to Dundalk. Highs 9-11 C (may reach 12-14 C in west). Sleet or snow on higher summits of southeast may not be visible by Monday due to melting overnight.

Higher than tide table sea levels can be expected all day but in particular at the late afternoon or evening high tides on east and south coasts. I expect the surplus to be about 0.5 metres. Fortunately, we are about midway from new moon to full moon which probably reduces the impact somewhat.

TONIGHT and MONDAY ... Rain continuing, becoming intermittent, possibly never reaching all parts of north coast (Donegal in particular) but tending to spread out into patchy bands as winds back again to northeast 20-40 mph. Temperatures steady around 8-10 C, then rising a bit where the cloud thins out on Monday afternoon, to 12 C. Further rainfalls about 10-20 mms. Some spot flooding is possible especially in the southeast.

TUESDAY ... Some rain or drizzle could continue in south and east and a further interval of heavier rain is possible with 10-20 mms in places, some thunder with it, variable cloud further north, morning lows 4-6 C and highs 8-11 C in moderate east to northeast winds 20-35 mph.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with some bright or sunny intervals, local drizzle or light rain near south coast at times, moderate east winds 15-30 mph, lows 3-5 C and highs 9-12 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Somewhat milder with some sunshine, then a band of showers moving south and southwest with possible thunder, highs generally about 14-15 C. Winds becoming more northeast as colder air arrives.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There still appears to be a significant cold spell developing although the guidance has not really continued as strong on this feature, but there may well be some wintry showers in places and frost, during the second week of May.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Heavy thunderstorms will set up for much of today in a frontal zone from Oklahoma to Tennessee and northern North Carolina. South of this, very warm and humid, highs 27-32 C. North of the fronts, cool with east winds, and a secondary band of rain or sleet further north, but drying out across the Great Lakes and inland northeast under cool sunshine, highs there about 9-12 C. Rather cloudy in the far west with isolated showers.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ...Saturday was a cloudy, humid day with sprinkles of rain but not much if any measurable, highs 13-15 C. Expecting a bit of sun at times on Sunday.

Look for an update on the unusual westward-moving low around 6 p.m., but before that you can probably get updates from the discussion thread. The 0600h location of this low was in northwest France inland just south of the Channel Islands with motion becoming more west-north-west after moving steadily northwest all day (from eastern Spain originally). Most models show the centre coming no closer than 150 miles south of Waterford but the heavier rain bands will tend to drift closer to Ireland as the system approaches and there may be quite variable rainfalls -- some places in France have seen 40-50 mms from the system. Winds were gusting to 110 km/hr near the Scilly Isles west of Cornwall at 0600h.

Monday, 30 April, 2012
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy and becoming a bit milder with outbreaks of showery rain, once again rather variable in amounts with 10-20 mms likely in parts of the southeast, 5-10 mms on average most other places, 2-5 mms north. Some mist or fog over higher terrain, but also a few sunny breaks in the mix, winds ENE 15-30 mph becoming ESE later, highs 11-14 C, milder in the west central counties.

TONIGHT ... Showers dying out for most, fog or mist, low cloud, lows 5-8 C.

TUESDAY ... Periods of rain may develop early morning southeast but with a few exceptions this rain should quickly become rather drizzly and amounts will only be 10-20 mms in coastal southeast, 5-10 mms some other south and central counties but somewhat patchy again. Winds ESE 15-30 mph and highs 12-15 C, once again mildest around Galway. By later in the day patchy showers mainly confined to Ulster but amounts light.

WEDNESDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sun, some showers still possible but most places dry, milder again with lows 4-7 C and highs 13-16 C, milder in the west. Winds moderate east to southeast 15-25 mph.

THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals, mild to warm, lows 3-6 C, highs 14-17 C, winds still from an easterly quarter backing gradually to northeast, which may make the east coast relatively cool. Isolated showers in Ulster.

FRIDAY ... Showers moving gradually south with a cooling trend in the north, highs around 10-12 C there, but one more mild to warm day for the south where showers may arrive later, highs 14-17 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Unseasonably cool with patchy light rain that may be sleety on hills with a covering of snow possible on higher summits in the north, winds generally northerly, highs only 8-11 C at lower elevations and about 5-8 C higher up, some frosts but lows generally 2-4 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... This cold spell may dig in for about a week although it could also turn wet again due to a frontal boundary being energized with waves moving east this time to the south of Ireland.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Severe storms widespread today from about north Texas and Oklahoma east-north-east into Ohio valley. Hot and humid south of this frontal zone, rather chilly to north with winds from the east around an arctic high in central Quebec and northeast Ontario. Dry and cool in the northeast U.S. with rain tomorrow there. A separate frontal system moving inland tonight will bring widespread rain to B.C., Washington state and later Idaho, Montana and Alberta with mountain snows. Warm to hot and dry in the southwest states.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunday was a cloudy, somewhat milder day with highs about 15-16 C and rain has begun to fall this evening.

Wednesday, 2 May, 2012
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That heavier rain that I mentioned in the early morning forecast yesterday seemed to accelerate and moved through in the late afternoon or early evening, so that's come and gone now.

TODAY ... Variable cloud, some warm sunny intervals developing especially in western counties as east winds will tend to bring more cloud and a cooling sea effect to eastern counties ... isolated showers still possible, probably most places remaining dry. Highs 14-17 C except near 12 C east and south coasts. Winds E-SE 15-30 mph.

TONIGHT and THURSDAY ... Mild and cloudy with some clear intervals in the north, but showers and some thundershowers spreading across the south, some of this activity offshore so extent inland yet to be nailed down, probably not too far north of Cork and Waterford but potential for 10-20 mms of rain in the coastal regions. Warm away from the east and south coasts in east winds 10-20 mph, highs 13-16 C.

FRIDAY ... Ulster is likely to turn considerably cooler in northeast winds and occasional showers, northeast winds 15-25 mph, highs 9-12 C. Other regions should stay fairly warm at least until late afternoon, highs 13-16 C, late showers after a partly cloudy day with east winds 10-20 mph.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated showers at first, becoming more widespread late in the day, chilly, morning lows near 2 C and highs 9-11 C.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy with occasional showers, chilly, lows 2-4 C and highs about 9-11 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Cloudy, cool, periods of rain, highs near 10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Continued cool and unsettled with the risk of more moderate or even heavy rain at times.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Heavy rain or thunderstorms moving across the lower Great Lakes and the inland northeast states. Turning very warm and humid to the south of this frontal wave, highs 27-30 C. Very warm and dry in the south central states, highs 32-38 C. Periods of rain northern plains and southern prairies, trending to snow in higher elevations of foothills into central Rockies. Hot and dry in southwest.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Variable cloud most of the day with a gradual clearing trend later, clear at present with a good view of the Moon and nearby Mars, earlier the high was about 13 C.

Friday, 4 May, 2012
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TODAY ... A band of showers or steady rain is moving south from central Connacht and north Leinster to reach the south coast by mid to late afternoon. To the south of this feature, which brings with it about 3-5 mms of rain, continuing rather mild for a while with highs 13-15 C in a mixture of cloud and sunshine. The showers will drop temperatures to about 8-10 C following which they might recover slightly in the cooler air mass, mainly due to a slight clearing that follows, but winds also become brisk northeast 20-35 mph (25-45 mph coastal north).

TONIGHT ... Chilly with variable cloud cover, some isolated showers that could become wintry on northern hills. Also, watch for the slight risk of thunder and hail showers spreading inland from the Irish Sea towards dawn, in Meath or Dublin. Lows generally 2-4 C with slight frost possible well inland.

SATURDAY ... Isolated showers dying out during the morning, otherwise partly cloudy to sunny and cool, moderate E-NE winds adding a chill to daytime highs of only 9-12 C.

SUNDAY ... Morning frosts, then increasing cloud, showers becoming more of a steady rain in the southwest by late afternoon, some parts of the east and north remaining dry. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 8-11 C.

MONDAY ... Periods of rain spreading further east and north, becoming heavy at times, followed in south by low cloud and mist but some late clearing, as winds become southeast 20-35 mph. Potential for 10-20 mms rainfall and lows 3-5 C, highs 9-11 C.

TUESDAY ... Rain ending as showers then some clearing to follow, remaining rather chilly, highs 10-12 C.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ... Another rainstorm appears likely from the southwest peaking in intensity around Wednesday night into Thursday morning, potential for 20-35 mms rain. Temperatures steady near 10 C.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY ... Windy and cold as the rain moves away, but some showers at times, slow clearing trend to follow. Highs stuck around 10-12 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There could be a gradual improvement from that point onward, as higher pressure begins to build in from the west, but it may take a while to clear the blocked pattern completely.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Heavy rain or thunderstorms continuing in lower Great Lakes but spreading a bit further to south towards NYC and southern New England. Foggy and cool to north of this when the rain finally ends, having given as much as 50-75 mms in places. Hot and humid to south from about PHL south, isolated thunderstorms. Another area of heavy rain or thunderstorms in the eastern Gulf region. Hot and dry again in Texas and southern plains states, desert southwest. Showers continuing in the northwest and parts of western Canada.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Thursday was a cloudy and cool day with some light rain at times, not very much accumulation, and highs near 11 C.

Sunday, 6 May, 2012
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TODAY ... Sunny intervals trending to mostly overcast in both north and southwest, light east to southeast winds, isolated showers near coasts at first, with a steady rain slowly spreading inland this afternoon over western Munster. Highs 8-12 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, rain spreading gradually further northeast, fog developing, lows 3-7 C milder in southwest.

MONDAY ... Periods of rain, total accumulations 10-20 mms, some thundery showers developing more likely in western counties, a few breaks in the overcast by afternoon or evening. Winds moderate southeast veering to south then southwest, eventually northerly (around Donegal winds will stay east and back to northeast). Highs 11-14 C milder in southwest.

TUESDAY ... Low cloud, drizzle in the morning then partial clearing with just isolated showers, some longer sunny intervals in west, lows 3-6 C and highs 11-13 C.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ... Periods of rain will develop again from the southwest, with several bursts of moderate or heavy rain possible, 20-40 mms potential. Winds generally easterly and temperatures steady near 10 or 12 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY ... Another brief clearing with moderate to strong northwest winds at times, then turning cold again by end of the weekend. Highs on Friday and Saturday near 13 C, on Sunday about 10 C.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Today will feature a major severe storm outbreak in parts of the central plains states, with a partly cloudy, warm day for the northeast, hot and humid across the south, hot and dry in Texas and the southwest. Mixed rain and wet snow over the Rockies from Wyoming north into Alberta and eastern B.C., clearing to sunshine on the west coast.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Saturday was a dry day for a change, with some sunny intervals despite a lot of cloud to north and east mainly, highs 14-16C.

Tuesday, 8 May, 2012
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ADVANCE ALERT ... Heavy rainfalls likely on Wednesday night and Thursday, 20-40 mms with rather cold northeast winds for most of the country (southeast may briefly warm up slightly).

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with some breaks developing, occasional drizzle or light rain more persistent in Connacht and west Ulster, winds northerly 10-20 mph, chilly with highs in northwest only 8-10 C, trending to 12 C south and east coasts. Sunshine may develop in some areas between slow-moving cloud formations, but best chance for that appears to be central counties from north to south.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals at first, frosty in parts of Ulster, north Leinster and inland Connacht, lows -2 to +3 C there, but around 3-7 C south and west coast regions, with rain possible after midnight as winds strengthen near the south coast to ESE 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY ... After a chilly and possibly a frosty start cloud and rain will spread in rather gradually from the south, and it may remain bright if not sunny across Ulster and north Connacht, even north Leinster for much of the day. Strong east winds 25-45 mph developing near south coast by evening, otherwise rather light east winds all day, highs 9-12 C. Rainfalls 5-10 mms by midnight in parts of Munster, otherwise trace to 2 mms.

THURSDAY ... Rain could turn heavy at times in the south and later central to northeast regions with 20-40 mms, and very cool for this time of year in strong northeast winds, 20-40 mph ... temperatures steady in the range of 7-9 C for most regions, 10-13 C south coast and southeast ... 15-30 mms rain likely with potential for 40 mms in some locations (inland south to east).

FRIDAY ... Windy and partial clearing with showers more confined to southeast as winds become northerly backing to northwest 20-35 mph, lows 3-6 C and highs near 10 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... There is still a reasonable chance of a slight break in the gloomy weather on Saturday, although it will require a rather fragile looking ridge to set up across the south and to hold off unsettled weather that looks likely to sweep in later Sunday. Highs would be about 13 C although still quite chilly at night. Then several days of windy, showery weather appear likely early the following week with highs around 11 C. Forecasts then for Saturday, partly cloudy with sunny intervals, highs near 13 or 14 C, increasing cloud Sunday with rain later, highs near 12 C. Monday-Tuesday cloudy with showers, rather chilly with winds becoming northwest 15-30 mph, highs 9-11 C.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Rain and thunderstorms moving steadily east towards the east coast but not arriving in the major cities until later in the day, highs 17-20 C. Warm and humid across the southeast, widespread thundershowers in Texas, highs 24-27 C. Clear and dry most of the central plains and northern plains into northwest U.S., highs 20-23 C, ahead of a mostly dry cold front that will sweep across southern B.C. (rain further north drying out inland). Hot and dry in the southwest.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Monday was a very warm day with increasing high cloud, highs near 20 C. We're expecting a largely dry cold front with similar temperatures to mid-afternoon then a sharp fall late "today" with a secondary cold front that may have a few showers before a much cooler day on Wednesday.

Thursday, 10 May, 2012
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TODAY ... Although most of this system's rain has now fallen, a further 3-5 mms can be expected in some regions, and there is a risk of thunder or hail showers developing in the southeast especially if skies brighten before mid-day, however some places may just remain under low cloud and drizzle there. Highs will edge up to about 12 C near Wexford but otherwise 8-10 C looks to be the high accompanied by moderate northeast backing to northerly winds -- these will only be strong later in coastal Connacht and west Ulster and eventually in Clare and Kerry. Somewhat variable southwest winds will prevail for the morning in the southeast and there could be isolated strong gusts if thunderstorms develop.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with late clearing, some residual drizzle turning to sleet on northern hills, feeling very cold in strong northerly backing to northwesterly winds 20-40 mph.

FRIDAY ... Brighter intervals in the morning, widespread but brief showers developing mid-day, wintry on some northern hills, winds NW 25-45 mph, chilly with highs 9-11 C. Rainfall amounts generally trace to 2 mms.

SATURDAY ... Morning frost possible where overnight cloud clears before morning, then variable cloud, some longer sunny intervals possible in the south, slight chance of drizzle or light rain in the far north ... less windy ... morning lows -2 to +3 C and afternoon highs 11-13 C.

SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers or periods of rain spreading across Connacht, Ulster and some distance into Clare and north Leinster. It may remain dry further south, although cloudy, with increasing southwest winds becoming strong and gusty by evening. Rainfalls 5-10 mms in the northwest, trace to 3 mms central and northeast. Lows near 5 C and highs near 12 C. Winds reaching 30-50 mph or somewhat stronger by evening.

MONDAY ... Windy and rather cold again with winds veering to WNW 25-45 mph, still a risk of an interval of stronger winds in Donegal, wintry showers developing in the north, rain or hail with thunder further south. Temperatures steady around 7-9 C.

OUTLOOK ... Continued rather cold and unsettled with frequent showers most of the week. Slight improvements appear possible later in the month. I'm optimistic about the summer despite this long unsettled spell (or perhaps because of it, can't be like this all year) but will hold off on a summer forecast until I finish some number crunching here.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Rain and fog moving through eastern Canada but clearing and rather cool for the Great Lakes and northeast U.S., highs generally low to mid teens. Further west, very warm and sunny in a broad southwest flow from the desert southwest where the air mass starts out near 30 C and only cools slightly even by the time it reaches Lake Superior, but around there it runs into a much colder air mass and chilly lake breezes. Texas is almost covered now in cloud and unseasonably cool weather except near the southern extreme, with widespread heavy rains. This spills back west about as far as Tuscon AZ so that southern Arizona and south-central New Mexico are also quite cool for mid-May, most of the rain is confined to the Mexican side of the border. Meanwhile, after one cool day the west coast is beginning to warm up again.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Wednesday was sunny and very breezy (W 30-40 mph) with chilly highs near 12 C. There were towering cumulus buildups to the north but clear skies overhead and south. Looks like a warm spell ahead, as heights rise here.

Saturday, 12 May, 2012
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TODAY ... Sunshine will be dominant to start except near the west and north coasts where partly to mostly cloudy skies will prevail ... although there may be some increase in cloud for most regions later, it could remain mostly sunny in Dublin and parts of the southeast and south ... drizzly light showers may develop in the more extensive cloud for west and north but amounts will be slight. The main feature for all regions will be much lighter winds, making it a really pleasant change, and highs will probably top off near 13 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals will continue across the south while cloud will be widespread in central and northern districts. Winds will gradually increase which likely means that lowest temperatures in the clear south will occur in the evening with a rise thereafter from 2-4 C to about 6 C, while the north remains around 6-8 C with some light rain at times in 20-40 mph WSW winds.

SUNDAY ... Mostly cloudy, windy and showery, but there could be some brighter intervals at times in the south. Winds WSW 30-50 mph in exposed locations (rising to 40-60 mph late in Donegal). Highs 10-12 C and on average about 5-10 mms of rain.

MONDAY ... Windy and turning slightly cooler during the day with widespread blustery showers, hail and thunder, some snow on higher summits by later in the day. Lows 5-7 C and highs 8-10 C, winds WNW 30-50 mph (40-60 mph at times in north).

TUESDAY ... Further showers, cool, blustery at times, lows 3-6 C and highs about 10 C, winds NW 20-40 mph.

WEDNESDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, less windy, just isolated showers with some places dry, highs near 12 C.

OUTLOOK ... Another period of cool, unsettled weather will follow, and the weekend of 19th-20th looks rather showery from this distance. Still looks promising for the longer term as the large-scale features are becoming more zonal.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Heavy showers moving through the Gulf states all weekend, may affect play on Sunday at the TPC in northern Florida. Texas will be drying out in most parts but some scattered storms will redevelop. A weaker system lies across parts of the Midwest but is dying out with little temperature contrast to fuel it, and from there north and west the weather is improving rapidly to warm and dry. The northeast states should also enjoy a warm and dry weekend in most cases.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny and about 18 C on Friday with mid-20s expected over the weekend here. You deserve it more than me, but life can be so unfair.

Monday, 14 May, 2012
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TODAY ... Partly cloudy with showers becoming more frequent later this morning, some heavy with hail and thunder, and rather chilly in moderate northwest winds 20-40 mph (some higher gusts possible near active shower cells). Highs 10-12 C. Average rainfalls just 2-4 mms but potential for up to 10 mms in some heavier showers.

TONIGHT ... Showers less frequent and some clear intervals developing, moderate northwest winds and cool, lows around 3-5 C.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy with some brighter intervals, occasional showers (1-3 mms on average), still rather breezy and cool (NW 15-30 mph). Highs 9-12 C.

WEDNESDAY ... A clear and potentially frosty start, lows -2 to +3 C, then sunny with cloudy intervals, highs near 11 C. Winds becoming light.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Outbreaks of rain near south coast may move further north, chilly east winds, lows 3-5 mm and highs 9-11 C. At present, rainfall potential looks to be about 10-20 mms into Friday, but there is some potential for 20-40 mms.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Cloudy with some breaks more likely in the north, rain becoming more showery, cool. Highs around 11-14 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There is some hope for improvement in the following week (21st to 27th) as a settled and warmer easterly flow pattern develops.

I am working on my summer forecast and hope to have that ready by Friday 18th.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... A few heavy storms in west Texas today, and unseasonably cool in parts of north Texas, New Mexico ... otherwise, most of the western and central U.S. and adjacent west-central Canada are enjoying a warm, dry pattern with highs near 25 C around the U.S.-Canada border to 35-38 C in the desert southwest, and 20-23 C near the coast. ... this warm, dry weather extends a good distance east towards New England while rain is moving through the east-central states and may reach New York City late today, but highs remain on the warm side in this region (22-25 C).

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunday was a warm, sunny day with highs around 23 C locally and 30 C further inland.

Wednesday, 16 May, 2012
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TODAY ... Sunny intervals this morning, fading behind increasing high cloud in the east by mid-afternoon, but cloudy at first in west, although some bright intervals before light rain begins (2-4 mms), this mainly affecting Connacht and west Ulster. Highs 10-12 C. Winds generally light becoming SSE backing later to ESE 10-20 mph.

TONIGHT ... Further light rain gradually spreading east but tending to die out across the south after midnight, cool but no frost likely, lows 5-7 C.

THURSDAY ... Mostly cloudy with outbreaks of light rain, possibly a bit heavier in the north but rather sporadic in general (3-5 mms), highs 9-11 C in light to moderate east winds.

FRIDAY ... Rain or drizzle at times, cloudy and cool, lows 4-7 C and highs around 10-13 C. Winds ESE 10-20 mph. Rainfalls 5-10 mms on average.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy with occasional rain (5-10 mms, potential for 20 mms) with chilly ENE winds 20-35 mph, lows near 6 C and highs near 11 C possibly a bit higher in Donegal and Derry, and feeling very chilly in some parts of the east where winds may be higher near the sea.

SUNDAY ... Mostly cloudy, further rain or drizzle, winds becoming NE 20-40 mph and temperatures in a narrow range 7-10 C although some chance of milder readings where clouds break slightly.

MONDAY ... Further showers and little change in the wind or temperatures but any clearing may bring somewhat improved highs.

OUTLOOK ... This blocking pattern is continuing to extend itself a day or two further into the 8-10 day period every so often in the guidance, although the end result seems to favour more settled weather with continued east to northeast winds, which would have to mean some increase in daytime temperatures with the strong late May sunshine, possibly a few days towards the end of the month will get into the near normal 15-20 C range.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Showers moving off the east coast of the U.S., and into parts of eastern Canada, with heavy rainfalls in the southeast states. Otherwise, most of the U.S. will be sunny and relatively warm trending to very warm in the northern plains states and Rockies, desert southwest. A few showers on a weak cold front in central Alberta and B.C., and turning cooler on the coast although dry and sunny.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Tuesday was sunny with moderate amounts of high cloud and the sea breeze was much stronger keeping highs near 17 C locally ... it was still in the mid-20s further inland. Clear and somewhat cool at present (8 C).

Friday, 18 May, 2012
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Summer forecast: The summer of 2012 is expected to be slightly warmer than average with below to near average rainfall and near to above average sunshine. Early to mid June could turn a lot warmer than recent weeks, then a more normal pattern should prevail until further bursts of warmth in July and August. A lot more details and the reasoning behind this forecast can be found in the "summer 2012" thread (post 53) at this location:

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=78743889#post78743889

If you would like to discuss, please join in over there so we can keep this thread confined to forecasts and alerts. Thanks -- MTC

Today's forecasts:

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, with intermittent and mostly light rain, some drizzle and mist patches, rather chilly except in a few northern locations where it turns brighter, winds E-NE 15-30 mph and highs 10-13 C.

TONIGHT and SATURDAY ... Intermittent light rain continuing, totals of about 10 to 20 mms from today to mid-day Saturday, winds E-NE 10-20 mph, and possibly a few sunny breaks developing by later afternoon especially to the north. Lows 6-8 C and highs 11-14 C (mildest likely around Donegal).

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated showers, some possibly thundery, and winds continuing from the northeast at moderate speeds, lows 3-5 C and highs 11-14 C.

MONDAY ... Sunny intervals, isolated showers, winds becoming light and variable by afternoon, lows 2-5 C and highs 12-15 C.

TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with some brighter intervals west, sunny breaks east, showers near the west coast at times and drizzle or mist patches, winds becoming more southeast, lows 4-7 C and highs 11-15 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... A somewhat warmer pattern is likely to develop later in the week. Highs could break 15 C despite a fair amount of cloud. The rainfall pattern would be sporadic at worst and some places may remain dry. At some point, another surge of moderate east to northeast winds could develop but this time it should be accompanied by rising pressures and settled weather.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Heavy rain in southern Virginia and North Carolina, otherwise, most of the eastern states and Great Lakes under sunshine or dry cloud, with highs 17-22 C and low humidity. Chilly lake or sea breezes in some shoreline regions. This will trend to very warm weather in the central U.S. with outbreaks of heavy rain and thunderstorms in the Dakotas, western Nebraska, extending north into parts of the eastern Canadian prairies. Highs 30-34 C in the warm air, 15-20 C behind the front in Montana and western Saskatchewan, 10-15 C Alberta with showers trending to snow in higher elevations. Sunny and seasonable near the west coast.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny with a high near 16 C and a cooling sea breeze on Thursday, similar expected today.

Sunday, 20 May, 2012
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New moon occurs at 2348h GMT which is 0048h Monday in summer time. This new moon provides a rare "annular" total eclipse for a zone extending from eastern Asia across the North Pacific Ocean into the western U.S.A. In the latter case, the eclipse will be centered on northern California, central Nevada, southern Utah, northeast Arizona and north-central New Mexico. It ends at sunset in northwest Texas. With the Moon near its furthest point from the earth (apogee) its apparent size is not quite large enough to cover the full disk of the Sun, so observers in the central path will see a ring of bright sun around the dark moon. Away from the central path, observers will just see a partial eclipse (if clouds permit). Cedar City, Utah would be the preferred destination for anyone hoping for clear skies under the path of totality.

Forecasts:

TODAY ... Many places will remain cloudy but some longer sunny breaks could develop in the south central counties, then later on more hit or miss breaks are likely as this cloud mass is very slowly breaking up in general. A slight chance of drizzle or a brief light shower remains near the coastal margins and inland north. Still rather cool with highs 12-14 C, higher in south central counties.

TONIGHT ... Fog or mist patches, some clear intervals, lows 4-7 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy across the southwest and west, some brighter intervals in north and east, southeast. With the cloud, some light rain or drizzle may edge inland at times with 2-5 mms potential in the western third of the country. Moderate southeast winds near the west coast, otherwise rather light and variable (but eastern components) breezes, highs 13-15 C.

TUESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, some brighter intervals, drizzle at times near coasts, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny for most, some areas of more persistent cloud especially where sea fog drifts inland east coast, but turning warmer in stages, highs near 17 C on average mid-week and 20 C later in the week, potential for 22-24 C in western counties as winds will be mainly from an easterly direction.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Staying warm and mostly dry although some risk of intervals of thundery showers.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Tropical storm Alberto, one of the earliest on record, has formed out of that mess that has been mentioned the past few days near the Virginia coast. It will spread cloud and some coastal rain into that region but high pressure will generally prevail and hold off the weak storm for most of the northeast, highs 20-24 C. Warm and increasingly humid further west with showers and thunderstorms in central states. Mostly warm and dry in the far west, but cloud followed by rain in northwest Washington state, coastal B.C. ... the total eclipse (see note above) will be seen along most of its path as cloud will only be of the higher variety in California (inland at least, some coastal fog may interfere) and then mostly clear skies will greet observers in Nevada, Utah and further east.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Saturday was a near-perfect day with a late increase in high cloud, otherwise sunshine and a high near 20 C. Expecting cloud and periods of rain on Sunday, with little chance of seeing the partial eclipse (it should turn almost dark for a few minutes under the overcast about 5:30 p.m. local time).

Tuesday, 22 May, 2012
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TODAY ... Cloudy, misty and humid with occasional light rain in western counties, some clearing by afternoon, highs 15-17 C. Foggy near south coast with sea breezes and highs 13-15 C. Partly cloudy with cooling sea breezes on east coast, highs 15-18 C (cooler on the coast). Sunny intervals and warm for east-central and inland north, highs 18-20 C.

TONIGHT ... Low cloud, mist or fog, drizzle near west and south coasts. Lows 10-12 C. Otherwise, partly cloudy and mild, some patchy fog, lows 8-10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Similar conditions to today, except that western counties will likely have just patchy drizzle rather than rain, and otherwise, sunshine may boost temperatures a degree or two, so highs inland may reach 20-22 C. The Dublin coast will likely be around 18 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny both days with fog only in a few outer coastal districts from Waterford west and from Mace Head south, quite warm inland, highs for most 21-24 C, about 18-20 C east coast. Nights will be mild and somewhat misty with lows around 10-12 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... This warm, dry weather could continue but we will have to watch developments carefully as heavy rain spreads west from Brittany and could be very close to the south coast by Saturday. There is a risk of more isolated thundery showers developing over central counties. However, it seems like temperatures should continue on the warm side, around 19-22 C (it would likely be about 14-17 C south coast and this could extend further north if the rain spreads in).

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Widespread showers and thunderstorms in the east, although some areas dry, as weak and disorganized frontal systems spread east and interact with offshore lows. Highs 21-24 C. Further west, warm or very warm, increasingly humid towards Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas with isolated thunderstorms, highs 27-32 C. Hot and dry in Arizona, parts of Nevada, Utah and southeast California, New Mexico, southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas, western Oklahoma, west Texas, highs 38-44 C. Cloudy with outbreaks of rain further north across the northwest U.S. and parts of western Canada, some heavy rainfalls likely in Alberta and Montana. Temperatures seasonable, 13-16 C.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Monday (a holiday) was cloudy with occasional rain and highs near 14 C. While not as heavy as Sunday, the two-day rainfall totals are about 40 mms.

Thursday, 24 May, 2012
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TODAY ... Sunny and very warm in most areas, with slightly cooler temperatures near the east coast in sea breezes, and quite a bit cooler along the south coast with low cloud and fog. Highs generally 22-25 C but 12-14 C south coast and 17-19 C east coast. Winds SE 10-20 mph.

TONIGHT ... Clear with hazy conditions for most, some fog patches or mist, lows 10-13 C. Possible drizzle outer west coast.

FRIDAY ... Mostly sunny again for most, some coastal areas in fog and low cloud, most likely southeast and southwest. Highs generally 23-25 C, but closer to 14 C near some coasts. Winds SE 15-25 mph.

SATURDAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, warm, except for southern coastal areas where cloudy with risk of some light rain. Highs for most around 21-23 but 13-16 C south coast. Winds ESE 15-25 mph.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, risk of showers or thunderstorms south, warm with highs near 21 C except 13-16 C south coast.

MONDAY ... Showers or thunderstorms, parts of Ulster and north Leinster may remain dry if rather cloudy, still rather warm at 19-21 C.

OUTLOOK ... A few more warm days likely, then showery and closer to normal near the end of the week.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Showers and thunderstorms in central plains states, some severe storms near Kansas-Missouri border northeast towards Lake Michigan. Hot and humid east of this front, highs 31-34 C. Hot and dry from Oklahoma and Texas west to southern California, rest of California windy with showers developing and turning cooler. This front will push east late Friday into Utah and Arizona, mostly dry but windy weather, but rain with the disturbance will spread across Oregon today and into Idaho and Montana on Friday. Western Canada continuing rather cool and cloudy with frequent showers especially inland over mountains and into Alberta.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Wednesday was a partly cloudy day with brief showers, breezy and rather cool, highs about 15 C.

Temperature contrast ... southwest Kansas 38 C highs, north of Denver about 12 C.

Saturday, 26 May, 2012
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TODAY ... Partly cloudy south but sunny and very warm again today for most, highs generally 19-24 C, but 13-17 C south coast and some distance inland, 17-21 C east coast. Low cloud and drizzle possible around coastal sections of south coast, should break up inland 5-10 kms giving hazy sunshine there and reasonably warm as close to the sea as Cork. Winds ESE 15-25 mph. Slight risk of an isolated thunderstorm west-central this afternoon, very low chance for any given location.

TONIGHT and SUNDAY ... After another mild and clear to partly cloudy night with lows 8-11 C, the day will become mainly cloudy with sunny intervals continuing mainly in north-central and northwest, where highs warmest (20-23 C). Elsewhere highs near 18-20 C. Some patchy light rain or drizzle mainly in southwest.

MONDAY ... Intervals of light rain in southwest, cloudy with sunny intervals elsewhere, lows 8-10 C and highs 18-21 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, warm, except near south coast in low cloud and morning drizzle, highs generally 19-22 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY ... Another warm, dry spell although closer to normal values with highs about 18-22 C, more of a south or SSW flow setting up sea breezes and low cloud on south and west coast this time, although probably light SE sea breezes near Dublin as well. Warm anywhere 10-20 kms inland.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Pattern will be slow to change.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Showers and thunderstorms developing in various parts of the central U.S., some severe, but generally hot and humid as far north as Chicago and across the lower Great Lakes, inland northeast and Mid-Atlantic states, highs generally 25-30 C. Isolated heavy storms in Florida, hot and humid otherwise. Hot and dry south central to New Mexico, breezy and turning cooler in Utah, western Colorado, Arizona, and California, thunderstorms in eastern Colorado and Wyoming. Some areas of rain further north towards border, but generally dry and seasoably warm in western Canada.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday was a pleasantly warm sunny day with highs near 22 C.

Monday, 28 May, 2012
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TODAY ... Partly cloudy and warm for most, although cooling sea breezes will make inroads near east and south coasts, and some low cloud or fog could drift a few kilometres inland. There may also be isolated and possibly quite brief showers in just a few locations. Winds SE 15-25 mph. Highs 21-24 C inland and towards west coast, 13-16 C south coast, 15-18 C east coast.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, but becoming misty or foggy, lows 9-12 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy and warm, more isolated showers possible, some of these heavy in parts of the southwest. Highs 20-23 C except near south coast 14-17 C and east coast 17-20 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers and a few thunderstorms developing, highs generally around 20 C.

THURSDAY ... Some morning showers then clearing, somewhat cooler in the north especially where northeast winds may push cooler air inland, highs in the north about 14-17 C and in the south 17-20 C.

FRIDAY-WEEKEND ... With any luck the ridge will hold and the weather will be reasonably warm and dry, but there is some chance that a more north to northeast flow pattern will overcome the ridge at least partially (Ulster-Leinster) so the compromise forecast at the moment would be partly cloudy, some isolated drizzle near east coasts, highs 16-19 C. Could be as warm as the lower 20s in parts of inland south and west.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Very warm to hot, humid in parts of the east especially inland as some coastal locations will see low cloud and sea fog, but inland highs 32-35 C in places. Isolated storms, becoming more of a line squall situation west of Chicago with severe storms in the Midwest. Effects of strong tropical storm Beryl will continue in north Florida, most of Georgia, and South Carolina with wind and heavy rain (22-25 C). A slightly cooler and drier air mass is replacing the heat over the central plains states and a few more storms are possible there. Increasing cloud over the northwest U.S. with rain to follow, but warm and dry in the southwest.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunday started out rather cloudy with a chilly sea breeze (SSE 20-30 mph) but this changed to sunny and warm in the afternoon with highs near 20 C, followed by increasing high cloud in the evening. Expecting showers by morning.