Atlantic Storm Watch: Turning Unsettled with Gales

Harps · 24-01-2013 9:30am

That storm for tomorrow night has suddenly popped up on this mornings models again, stormy day in the NW looks a certainty now but UKMO and a couple of others have it tracking right over the country so we might have a bit of a surprise yet, there seems to be a different solution on every model so hopefully an interesting day of watching ahead

maquiladora · 24-01-2013 9:35am

0Z GFS takes that monster low down to 918mb in the Atlantic at 57 hours. If that came off it would be the most intense Atlantic storm in 20 years and within a few mb of the record for the lowest pressure ever recorded from a storm outside of tropical systems.

It should be out to sea during its most intense phase and those severe winds would not reach us, but some models take it near us after it reached its mature phase which could bring some windy conditions to the west, though its too early to say.

UW96-21.GIF?24-06

Before that though on Friday/Saturday, there is another smaller low that could bring some strong, but not severe winds. Still some uncertainty with this too.

ECM

NAE

Spindle · 24-01-2013 10:47am

Harps wrote: »

That storm for tomorrow night has suddenly popped up on this mornings models again, stormy day in the NW looks a certainty now but UKMO and a couple of others have it tracking right over the country so we might have a bit of a surprise yet, there seems to be a different solution on every model so hopefully an interesting day of watching ahead

The 6h GFS does not develop this storm at all. Interesting that all the models are so different even at this close stage. Which one will be right????

dopolahpec · 24-01-2013 10:49am

Spindle wrote: »

The 6h GFS does not develop this storm at all. Interesting that all the models are so different even at this close stage. Which one will be right????

Yeah it has vanished.

maquiladora · 24-01-2013 10:59am

dopolahpec wrote: »

Yeah it has vanished.

It's still there, just a lot weaker. 06Z NAE has a deeper low in about the same position 12 hours later.

maquiladora · 24-01-2013 11:43am

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...

.06 HOUR FORECAST LOW 36N73W 1011 MB. WITHIN 300 NM S AND 480 NM
SW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW 37N66W 1006 MB. WITHIN 480 NM SW QUADRANT
WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 40N53W 988 MB WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY.
WITHIN 180 NM SE AND 480 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 50 TO 65 KT. SEAS
18 TO 26 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM E AND SE...AND 660 NM SW
QUADRANTS WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 24 FT. ALSO N OF 31N
WITHIN 240 NM NE...600 NM SE...960 NM SW...AND 900 NM W
QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 23 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW E OF AREA 53N34W 920 MB. OVER FORECAST
WATERS FROM 49N TO 56N E OF 38W WINDS 60 TO 80 KT. SEAS 20 TO 40
FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 780 NM SW AND 240 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 45
TO 60 KT. SEAS 16 TO 32 FT. ALSO WITHIN 960 NM SW AND 300 NM NW
QUADRANTS WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 30 FT.

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml

68mb drop in 24 hours. And at that 48 hour mark it may still be deepening a bit more.

Villain · 24-01-2013 12:10pm

It's heading for Iceland now, much further North West on latest runs

maquiladora · 24-01-2013 2:26pm

Another view of the 0Z GFS. Huge windfield spanning hundreds of miles in the Atlantic. Pressure just within a few digits of the record for extratropical systems. If it turned out as the model shows there, you might not see another Atlantic storm like it for 20 years or more. Lucky for us that those hurricane force winds will be kept far out at sea. Just to make it clear, Ireland is not in any direct risk from that storm.

Looking forward to watching it on the sat. A pity there are no buoys in the area where it will be most intense, and I doubt there will be many ships there too, so the pressure will only be an estimate. Pity we don't have a hurricane hunter plane to fly to investigate. :P

eskimocat · 24-01-2013 2:48pm

maquiladora wrote: »

68mb drop in 24 hours. And at that 48 hour mark it may still be deepening a bit more.

Okay so what are we going to call it when the millibars drop that much in 24 hours.
'Bomb' seems inadequate to describe that baby!!

Any suggestions?

Tactical · 24-01-2013 3:20pm

eskimocat wrote: »

Okay so what are we going to call it when the millibars drop that much in 24 hours.
'Bomb' seems inadequate to describe that baby!!

Any suggestions?

That's easy...

MOAB

Failing that, a WMD

:D:D

maquiladora · 24-01-2013 4:33pm

12Z NAE showing an area of low pressure prodicing gales along northwest coasts. Nothing too severe or significant for those parts though.

On a wider view, at the same time, you can see how that pales in comparison to the beast of a storm taking up a large area of the North Atlantic, with sustained winds of up 85+ mph there.

12Z GFS deepens the big low out in the Atlantic to 924mb. Same as the 06Z.

At the moment, that monster low is just a weak area of low pressure (1005mb) off the US east coast.

maquiladora · 24-01-2013 5:07pm

Monday & Tuesday looking stormy on the 12Z GFS. A double dose of two systems along a very strong jet.

gfs-0-96.png?12

Monday :

Tuesday is more severe :

munsterlegend · 24-01-2013 5:23pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Monday & Tuesday looking stormy on the 12Z GFS. A double dose of two systems along a very strong jet.

Monday :

they usually go further north west though?

waterways · 24-01-2013 5:39pm

Maq, thanks for your ongoing posting of models. Are the images/links fixed? Would be interesting to see which model/run had the best idea how this/these extratropical cyclone(s) will develope and which track(s) will happen.

I had a look at some charts of historic extratropical storms today and I'm wondering how the models are poles apart although we are less than 3 days away before the Atlantic will see some movement, probably not only above it. I would be surprised if a weak low is deepening so fast and also weakening so quickly as GFS is forecasting it. Could the Sunday low feed a row of winter storms?

maquiladora · 24-01-2013 5:52pm

waterways wrote: »

Maq, thanks for your ongoing posting of models. Are the images/links fixed? Would be interesting to see which model/run had the best idea how this/these extratropical cyclone(s) will develope and which track(s) will happen.

I had a look at some charts of historic extratropical storms today and I'm wondering how the models are poles apart although we are less than 3 days away before the Atlantic will see some movement, probably not only above it. I would be surprised if a weak low is deepening so fast and also weakening so quickly as GFS is forecasting it. Could the Sunday low feed a row of winter storms?

Some of the images are fixed, others are dynamic, but you can always go back and check the model archives on those sites to compare with what really happened.

What the GFS is showing is 2 more lows exiting the US and riding the rails of the powerful jet which happens to be angled by then to put us close to their paths while the remains of that big low meanders to our northwest. It's 96 and 120 hours from now so expect changes, but that's just what the model shows for now.

Weathering · 24-01-2013 6:15pm

If this verifies the north west would see extreme winds
Malin head could clock 100mph possible
How bad do you reckon the wind gusts could be Maq going on current output?

JanuarySnowstor · 24-01-2013 6:18pm

The UKMO is a very stormy run, even more so than gfs
It brings that very deep storm much closer our shores too

waterways · 24-01-2013 6:18pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

they usually go further north west though?

Yes, but the GFS 12Z run has a high over Spain as the counterpart at 96T.

maquiladora · 24-01-2013 6:36pm

Weathering wrote: »

If this verifies the north west would see extreme winds
Malin head could clock 100mph possible
How bad do you reckon the wind gusts could be Maq going on current output?

12Z GFS on Monday would have widespread gusts of around 100 km/h, stronger around coastal areas, and in the west up to about 130 km/h. On Tuesday then add 10-15 km/h on to those figures.

I am not saying that is going to happen though. One or both of those potential events could get downgraded a lot or might not even happen - or it could be even more severe. Let's just see what happens, a lot can and probably will change.

Weathering · 24-01-2013 6:40pm

Thanks Maq,something to keep us entertained weather wise for a few days

waterways · 24-01-2013 6:52pm

Haven't you read the disclaimer? We never predict weather we only discuss models.

cyclops999 · 24-01-2013 7:13pm

Maq with the isobars so tightly packed on Monday if this was to happen what strenght would overland winds be?

maquiladora · 24-01-2013 7:20pm

cyclops999 wrote: »

Maq with the isobars so tightly packed on Monday if this was to happen what strenght would overland winds be?

I posted some charts on the previous page with gusts in knots to give a rough idea. I wouldn't focus too much on the details because things will change.

JanuarySnowstor · 24-01-2013 7:47pm

The models are now firming up on a very stormy period ahead.
We have about 3 storms now in the next week or so, one more powerful than the next
Interesting weather, in ways almost more so than these half hearted cold spells!!

Harps · 24-01-2013 8:01pm

Yep finally (potentially) an active week of weather after 4 months with absolutely nothing of note

Problem at the moment is that the global models are next to useless with so many different storms showing up at different times and no continuity between runs

Even tomorrow night, UKMO has very strong winds in the NW while ECMWF doesn't seem to develop the system at all

maquiladora · 24-01-2013 8:13pm

Harps wrote: »

Yep finally (potentially) an active week of weather after 4 months with absolutely nothing of note

Problem at the moment is that the global models are next to useless with so many different storms showing up at different times and no continuity between runs

Yep. Feast or a famine. After no significant windstorm potential for ages we now have a possible system tomorrow for the northwest, followed up by maybe the most intense Atlantic storm in 20 years (out at sea) over the weekend, followed by two more potential storms on Monday and Tuesday which could impact us more...

UK4 shows tomorrows low quite well.

Ahorseofaman · 24-01-2013 8:15pm

will it rain in my backyard?and how many mm to the nearest decimal point? :pac:

maquiladora · 24-01-2013 8:18pm

Ahorseofaman wrote: »

will it rain in my backyard?and how many mm to the nearest decimal point/
:pac:

Enough to make a rainman.

Ahorseofaman · 24-01-2013 8:20pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Enough to make a rainman.

:pac::pac::pac:

dfx- · 24-01-2013 9:20pm

Is there a chance this could be like the previous really low storm on a model that turned into two weaker storms in reality..

maquiladora · 24-01-2013 9:31pm

dfx- wrote: »

Is there a chance this could be like the previous really low storm on a model that turned into two weaker storms in reality..

I can't remember which low you mean there, but all 3 main models are in agreement on the deep Atlantic low by 48 hours, only difference between them at that point being exactly how intense it would be.

Plenty of uncertainty with the other potential systems though.

vizualpics · 24-01-2013 9:35pm

Harps wrote: »

Yep finally (potentially) an active week of weather after 4 months with absolutely nothing of note

Are you forgetting the storms we had before Christmas 21st/22nd Dec and another on the 28th Dec?

maquiladora · 24-01-2013 9:58pm

vizualpics wrote: »

Are you forgetting the storms we had before Christmas 21st/22nd Dec and another on the 28th Dec?

I remember Dec 28th. There was a recorded gust of 131 km/h. Here is the chart from that day.

gfs-2012122800-0-18.png?0

Mr Cumulonimbus · 24-01-2013 10:48pm

18Z GFS appears to be keeping the low a little further west with each new frame.

Mr Cumulonimbus · 24-01-2013 10:57pm

New frame at +78 keeps the low quite a further bit west now with a new feature developing to its south.

maquiladora · 24-01-2013 11:14pm

Mr Cumulonimbus wrote: »

New frame at +78 keeps the low quite a further bit west now with a new feature developing to its south.

There will be changes with these lows on every run. Even for tomorrow night the 18Z GFS has that small low to our northwest 10mb deeper than the last run six hours ago.

This is the difference at the 27 hour mark. 18Z on the left, 12Z on the right.

maquiladora · 25-01-2013 12:00am

Here is some stuff from around the weather world about the big Atlantic low. I'm surprised there's not more interest about it on here.

From senior meteorologist at The Weather Channel Stu Ostro's Facebook page :

A system which is currently relatively innocuous but with a potent core of jet stream energy aloft (top map) will become very intense by Saturday over the North Atlantic. The bottom image is the ECMWF model's depiction of how the cyclone will appear on satellite imagery. This won't necessarily be exactly how it'll look, but it should have a vivid comma/swirl. Latest runs of both that model and the American GFS forecast a central pressure to reach ~925-927 millibars, which would be exceptionally low.

Models also indicate it'll become a "warm seclusion," which is as that sounds: warm air becoming secluded from colder air around it. I.e. it would be warm-core, which tropical cyclones are, but by a different process and with an overall different structure and winds not as strong as with a hurricane that has a central pressure in the 920s.

Fortunately the storm should weaken before directly affecting land, but it'll generate extremely big waves on the ocean, and another large & strong storm may approach Iceland and northwest Europe early-mid next week.

The Weather Channel also have an article on it today.

Meteorologists use central pressure as a proxy for measuring the strength of both "extratropical cyclones" (those with cold/warm/occluded fronts) and "tropical cyclones" (hurricanes, tropical storms, tropical depressions).

The lowest surface pressure as measured by reconnaissance aircraft in Superstorm Sandy's lifecycle was 940 millibars. The North Atlantic storm we reference below will likely bottom out with a lower central pressure! Fortunately, its worst impacts will stay offshore of Iceland, Ireland and Scotland.

Isobar after isobar encircles the low pressure center in this model forecast (Saturday) of the powerful north Atlantic storm.

Historical Perspective

Most Powerful Atlantic Extratropical Cyclones on Record (Source: Weather Underground)

913 mb (26.96") on Jan. 10-11, 1993 near Scotland’s Shetland Islands (lowest sea-level adjusted barometric pressure ever observed on the earth’s surface besides tropical cyclones and tornadoes)

920.2 mb (27.17”) by the ship Uyir while she sailed southeast of Greenland on December 15, 1986. The British Met. Office calculated that the central pressure of the storm, which was centered some distance southeast of the ship, was 916 mb (27.05”).

921.1 mb (27.20") on Feb. 5, 1870 measured by the ship Neier at 49°N 26°W (another ship in the area measured 925.5 mb)

924 mb (27.28") on Feb. 4, 1824 at Reykjavik, Iceland (the lowest on land measured pressure in the North Atlantic)

925.5 mb (27.33") on Dec. 4, 1929 by the SS Westpool somewhere in the Atlantic (exact location unknown)

925.6 mb (27.33") on Jan. 26, 1884 at Ochtertyre, Perthshire, U.K. (the lowest pressure recorded on land in the U.K.)

From a marine meteorologist's blog :

North Atlantic Storm update

A 1003mb low off the Middle Atlantic Coast this afternoon will move and deepen very rapidly as it tracks northeastward with winds forecast up to 50 knots this evening, reaching upwards of 60 knots by 12Z Friday and as high as 80-85 knots possible Friday night. Significant wave heights associated with this low will buildup to 17 meters (56 feet) by early Saturday. This system will likely deepen to near historical levels with models suggesting a minimum pressure of about 923mb early Saturday.

Spindle · 25-01-2013 12:22am

Maquiladora, thanks for all the updates on this, a lot of discussion around the place is still about snow potential, completely ignoring the beast of a storm out in the Atlantic.

Looks bit like a big swiss roll on the chart above

ninebeanrows · 25-01-2013 12:36am

Interesting, some ENS are starting to indicate the super low will spawn off a secondary depression quite early in the output, the 18z GFS does build this but doesn't go to the extreme as some ENS members.

Below is an example of an output at T60hrs and isnt a complete outlier.

gens-14-1-60.png?18

Harps · 25-01-2013 12:39am

Satellite loops of the US coast and the North Atlantic here, in darkness for the next while obviously but the general features should be visible on infrared. It should come into view on our own sat24 tomorrow

http://www.weatherplaza.com/en-US/sat/?region=northeast.vis

http://www.sat24.com/imageloop.aspx

Already forming a baroclinic leaf south of Newfoundland at the moment

Edit: Another one here shows the whole North Atlantic and has a zoom feature

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-vis.html

DaithiMa · 25-01-2013 1:36am

I've been looking and lurking in the weather forum for ages (jesus that sounds dodgy!) and I have learned loads about weather/charts from those in the know on here. Thanks. This development in the Atlantic looks by far the most interesting/epic thing on here in the last year or so since i've been on, and from what I can see on the charts it looks like some serious s#@t. I, for one, cannot wait to see how it unfolds.

teddybones · 25-01-2013 2:30am

DaithiMa wrote: »

I've been looking and lurking in the weather forum for ages (jesus that sounds dodgy!) and I have learned loads about weather/charts from those in the know on here. Thanks. This development in the Atlantic looks by far the most interesting/epic thing on here in the last year or so since i've been on, and from what I can see on the charts it looks like some serious s#@t. I, for one, cannot wait to see how it unfolds.

You echo my thoughts exactly Daithi. Thanks to everyone for your wonderful analysis and thoughts on this thread and especially Maq! I have been quietly glued to this thread! Fascinating stuff people.

shmaupel · 25-01-2013 10:04am

teddybones wrote: »

You echo my thoughts exactly Daithi. Thanks to everyone for your wonderful analysis and thoughts on this thread and especially Maq! I have been quietly glued to this thread! Fascinating stuff people.

Just to add my own thanks here too, its great to get your thoughts on the models Maq, I appreciate all the time and effort :-)

Elmer Blooker · 25-01-2013 11:15am

I found this on NW are few mins ago, look at the Atlantic laughing at us - the Atlantic always has the last laugh!

red_bairn · 25-01-2013 11:20am

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I found this on NW are few mins ago, look at the Atlantic laughing at us - the Atlantic always has the last laugh!

That's well creepy...

Weathering · 25-01-2013 11:24am

Have we reached the stage to warrant a level1 thread for any of these possible storms or is there still too much uncertainty?

Elmer Blooker · 25-01-2013 11:26am

red_bairn wrote: »

That's well creepy...

creepy alright

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/f/f4/The_Scream.jpg

maquiladora · 25-01-2013 11:59am

Weathering wrote: »

Have we reached the stage to warrant a level1 thread for any of these possible storms or is there still too much uncertainty?

Too much uncertainty still from Sunday onwards.

Mr Cumulonimbus · 25-01-2013 12:04pm

Thermal IR image at 9am.

maquiladora · 25-01-2013 12:14pm

It's just starting to slip out of range of the Northwest Atlantic view here -
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-bd.html

Wider North Atlantic view -
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-bd.html

Main GOES East page - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/

It was 984mb at 9am.

Atlantic Storm Watch: Turning Unsettled with Gales

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