Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2020 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

I would still be very cautious about this weekends's snow risk. The charts don't seem to take into account that there will be an onshore wind from the Irish sea and unless we are near the freezer that is usually curtains for snow during frontal events.

The weekend is now starting to look quite chilly indeed with temperatures generally 2 to 4C on Saturday/Sunday away from the far south and south-west. Dewpoints are marginal especially early on Saturday and from Sunday afternoon.

GFS is going for a slight dusting across the centre of the country but like last Saturday, amounts will be very small between 0.1 and 1cm.

Probably a fair reality, cold rain for much of Leinster with that onshore wind off a fairly mild Irish sea with snow confined to high ground. Better chance of a dusting in the midlands and further west.

Scrabbel wrote: »

I heard somebody mentioning Icon charts for next Tuesday. Any views from the experts on here (and thanks as ever for sharing your knowledge).

The Icon is still showing a potentially major wintry event for Tuesday. It's been showing this for the past 2 days. Not sure I agree with it as Tuesday/Wednesday are going to be relatively mild especially across the southern half of the country.



Majority of the other models are showing a generally very wet day on Tuesday of rain.

A big change is on the way to our weather over the next few days. We've had what seems like almost constant rain and wet conditions over the past 5 days in what has been an extremely wet and Atlantic dominated period of weather.

From tomorrow we should see a big reduction in the amount of persistent rainfall, this will be most welcome as it will allow the land to dry out a little bit and become less saturated.

It won't be completely dry however, a mixture of cloud and showery outbreaks of rain at times on Thursday but amounts will be nothing like the deluges we have seen over the past week. Temperatures will be close to normal between 6 and 8C.

Friday will begin a cooling trend, some showers across western regions which could be wintry on hills. These will die out as a northerly wind sets in. Showers will continue along northern coastal areas and may start to fringe against eastern coasts on Friday night. Friday will feel quite chilly with temperatures ranging 4 to 8C. These showers mainly of cold rain. There may be a light frost in a few sheltered spots Friday night.



Saturday will be a mostly dry day but rain showers will begin to pepper eastern coastal regions. These could band together at times to produce rather wet conditions in a few places.





Saturday night will turn fairly cold especially across the west with a ground frost in many areas. Eastern areas will be milder due to a stiff onshore easterly wind and rain showers at times, these will gradually turn more wintry later in the night towards Sunday morning.

Sunday will be colder again with some very cold air beginning to track east to west. Sunday will be a mostly dry day but some wintry showers of rain, sleet and wet snow will drift into some northern and eastern areas. These could be rather light and patchy in nature to begin with. Temperatures on Sunday generally between 1 and 4C.



Sunday night will be very chilly with a widespread frost. Mostly dry but some light wintry showers along eastern coasts may become more widespread and heavier across Leinster, by this stage many of them will be turning to sleet and snow with some light coverings possible to low levels.Temperatures Sunday night between 0 and -3C.

I shall go no further than this, just firming up on the weather between now and the beginning of possibly the coldest period of weather we've seen since March 2018. The reduction of rainfall over the next few days will be most welcome, however it won't be completely dry either. temperatures gradually getting colder by a degree or so each day.

We still look on for a 3 to 4 day cold spell. Alot of negativity in here today and not sure why. This spell has never locked in 5+ days of cold and snow at any point, sure a few of the models have tried to extend it to next weekend but that doesn't mean it's going to happen. Same with the rapid breakthrough of the Atlantic and mild, it is not set in stone either. There are still disagreements between the models and alot of variations so the models are clearly struggling to get to grips with the very mild vs very cold battleground.

Most people will be happy with dryer conditions ahead of us, it sure is a break from the slate grey skies, rain and damp conditions of the past week. There will be frosts and sunny skies as well as snow showers at times. This event should not be compared to Storm Emma, it's nothing like that and should not be compared to December 2010 either. This will be a welcome spell of winter for a few days at least and is better than anything we've seen over the past 2 winters. Just don't expect snow by the meter, that is very unlikely to happen.

Expect more downgrades and upgrades between now and Sunday, this rollercoaster still has some way to go. Don't be focusing on snow depth charts this far out, the models are very poor at handling streamers inland, particularly for Ireland. I remember in the days leading up to December 2010, the models weren't exactly generous with the streamer potential and we ended up with 2 foot of snow. Not saying that we will get anything like that this time around but parts of Leinster, the midlands, maybe the south coast and parts of Ulster could see low to moderate falls of snow, certainly more than a bare dusting. It may not last a week like everyone wants but 2 to 3 days of watching the radar for showers and lamp post watching is better than none at all.

Calibos wrote: »

I'm not so much downbeat tonight about the 3-4 day duration the models are coalescing on, but the fact that it seems even the Mon/Tues Snow is looking like coming from a Easterly or South Easterly direction which takes Wicklow out of the game for the most part due to the Wales Shadow. ie. Can't look forward to a Frontal event on Wednesday anymore apparently and now neither does it look like I can look forward to much of anything except cold on Mon/Tues.

This is a constant struggle with everyone who lives near the east coast. Through the years I've had more than my fair share of disappointments with the Isle Of Man shadow. Every easterly that has delivered snow I get stuck under it at some point, sometimes I'm stuck under it the entire time and there is nothing I can do about it except hope for a variable wind direction.

During December 2010 I got caught under the shadow regularly while Dublin Airport not too far away was away from the shadow more often. There was a variable wind direction so when I was lucky to move away from the shadow the snow delivered alot in a short space of time.

The BFTE had me under the shadow almost the entire time. I remember the event started on a Tuesday and we had a few initial light showers and then nothing on Tuesday night, all of Wednesday and then Storm Emma began Wednesday night and that delivered.

A few days ago it was looking like I was going to be under the IOM and Ulster shadow based on the wind direction, that has now shifted to a wind direction much more favourable for my location. This event is still 2 to 3 days away and there is every chance this wind direction will shift again and it will also be variable. There is every chance we will all be under a shadow at some point, such is the joys of trying to juggle being away from the Ulster, IOM and Wales shadow.

This is probably part of the reason why models really struggle with streamers for Ireland, our coastline is full of shadow zones unlike the UK east coastline which has 100s of km of sea.