Flood risk in the South and East, very heavy rain and strong winds, Tues - Fri

yellow heading blinding


and if insurers are sending out emails to customers, than we really are in for it:eek:

or live on the northside of cork city.

Lovely bit of sun in Dublin 4. Enjoy it while it lasts lads.

Fiskar wrote: »

Sun splitting the stones here in Meath. Always follow the old motto, Always build your house on the high ground

Yeh, where you can act as a beacon for lightning

I suppose a slight risk of an extreme event is the same as an extreme risk of a slight event. No change in my outlook, agreed that yellow is a bad colour choice for headings, can't easily read at all.

Low estimated 980 mbs near 49.5 N and 17.5 W. We are getting a puzzling ship report just north of the K1 buoy (which is near 49N 12.4W) -- the buoy has shown SSE shifting SW moderate winds, the ship report is NNE 55 knots. Looking at the satellite imagery, this would only be correct if squalls have developed along the bent-back occlusion, but other explanations would be error reports including longitude numbers mixed up (21.4 instead of 12.4 would fit the storm). So I will keep an eye on these details but the general picture remains the same as outlined earlier, expect a steady increase in wind speeds tonight and Wednesday morning with peak winds likely mid-day to evening, direction generally NE with a backing tendency.

By the way, looks cold enough by late Thursday and Friday morning to see coating of snow on most hills in Connacht and west Ulster. Higher summits in southeast could also see sleety snow at times.

Would say inland south and southeast most at risk for river flooding, but urban flooding could develop in parts of Dublin, tidal issues might develop for streams running into the Liffey. At the Wednesday high tides water levels could be half a metre or more above tide tables. JS has mentioned concern for similar issues around Cork. I haven't looked at the details of shorelines in Wexford but anything exposed to the east or northeast there might be dealing with a one metre rise above tide tables.

Yes as forecast so far.

A spell of very heavy frontal rain but then we have the worrying likelihood of heavy showers banding from the Irish sea in the wake of the front.

Also winds along the east coast will be very strong.

For the Dublin region, winds will be sustained 30-35mph gusting from 50-60mph.

Combined with at times torrential rain, it will make for an atrocious afternoon and evening.

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I suppose a slight risk of an extreme event is the same as an extreme risk of a slight event. No change in my outlook, agreed that yellow is a bad colour choice for headings, can't easily read at all.

Low estimated 980 mbs near 49.5 N and 17.5 W. We are getting a puzzling ship report just north of the K1 buoy (which is near 49N 12.4W) -- the buoy has shown SSE shifting SW moderate winds, the ship report is NNE 55 knots. Looking at the satellite imagery, this would only be correct if squalls have developed along the bent-back occlusion, but other explanations would be error reports including longitude numbers mixed up (21.4 instead of 12.4 would fit the storm). So I will keep an eye on these details but the general picture remains the same as outlined earlier, expect a steady increase in wind speeds tonight and Wednesday morning with peak winds likely mid-day to evening, direction generally NE with a backing tendency.

By the way, looks cold enough by late Thursday and Friday morning to see coating of snow on most hills in Connacht and west Ulster. Higher summits in southeast could also see sleety snow at times.

Would say inland south and southeast most at risk for river flooding, but urban flooding could develop in parts of Dublin, tidal issues might develop for streams running into the Liffey. At the Wednesday high tides water levels could be half a metre or more above tide tables. JS has mentioned concern for similar issues around Cork. I haven't looked at the details of shorelines in Wexford but anything exposed to the east or northeast there might be dealing with a one metre rise above tide tables.

Hey MT, interestingly the GME model initialised the low with a really tightly wound gradient on its' southwestern quarter. So would not be surprised to see winds of 50KT in that area.

Latest NAE shows Dublin & Wicklow area most at risk of significant rainfall.

With totals of 25-45mm being forecast in the 24 hours from 6am tomorrow to 6am Thursday.

Can anyone tell me what the mm measurement of rain was that fell last October on that particularly bad day. I see 25mm to 45mm forecast for tomorrow and I just want to compare. thanks in advance

redsunset wrote: »

Ummm and with the duration of rainfall over the few days, could Sundays threat be the straw that breaks the camels back.
Sunday forecast below


Anyway before that its looking fairly hazardous for eastern coast as the rain I feel may become relentless with only brief periods of dryness.

I think you have a valid point redsunset - the rain for next Sunday looks even heavier than tomorrow. Oh what a messy phase we are now entering. Umbrellas at the ready so!

D