Chit chat number nein

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Forecast Update _ Friday 14 December, 2018 _ 8 p.m.
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A complex storm system is approaching Ireland tonight and will bring heavy rainfalls to most of the country from around midnight to late Saturday. Totals of 30 to 50 mm rainfall possible, heaviest expected to be roughly Cork-Kerry to Limerick-Clare to Athlone-Sligo into Ulster but other pockets of locally similar totals in west Connacht and locally around higher terrain in the southeast. Some river flooding may develop, but the greater concern would be for poor driving conditions at times on major routes due to surface water accumulations and hydroplaning potential. Would avoid longer distance travel on Saturday if possible, or exercise extreme caution due to these conditions. Road spray combined with some strong wind gusts could be a hazard also. As to strong winds with this storm, they will certainly develop around its southern flanks but there is some question as to whether those very strong gusts will hit any portions of the Irish coastline or swing around more towards south Wales which is definitely going to get hit hard with gusts to 140 km/hr possible. Personally I would avoid any ferry crossings tomorrow if possible even if they go ahead. Rough seas and difficult docking on the Welsh side in particular can be expected. The morning update may allow for more precision about wind potential in Ireland but I think the best idea at this point is to expect some risk of strong to damaging wind gusts with the southwest to southeast coastal areas most at risk. The stronger winds with this complex system appear to be following behind the low pressure rather than ahead of it as is often the case, which means that the strongest gusts would be from a westerly direction towards late afternoon and evening, but if it were to strengthen rapidly then very strong south winds could develop at the same time ahead of the trough (as I am expecting will be the case for south Wales).

Expect some chance of this being upgraded to an orange alert in some parts of Ireland, perhaps more for the rain than the wind potential, but it will definitely reach that status in Wales where I believe it already has that warning in place from the UK Met Office.