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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2020 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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Yes looks like a weak front crossing down over the country around late Weds / Thurs followed by troughs . Will see if the area of LP to the E of the UK on Thurs lends a hand to guide / send in bands of precipitation from the NE later Thurs into Fri as the ECM suggests atm, this could be wintry for the N, NE and E if it happens like this but that is a bit far away yet.
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ICON painting a picture of a cold breezy / blustery wintry spell from later Weds through to Friday. Showing some very cold air over us and deep cold close by, some very cold wind chill readings. ECM currently not showing it too snowy , ARPEGE looks a bit wintry but little precipitation . UKMO and GFS a bit wintry but not a lot of wintry precipitation . Early days in the world of snow, will see what the ECM shows later.
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I reckon in general the models showing a fairly tame weakening cold front break up as it passes down the country Weds night into Thurs. Wintry but light stuff, probably mainly sleet and some light snow on higher ground. ICON still showing the most snow from this. Bit away yet for any accuracy, ECM showing more in the way of wintry precipitation on the 12Z than previous runs. Has the the cold front move into cold air, 850 hPa of about -5 to -6C and similar type temperatures following.
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Meteorite58 wrote: »I reckon in general the models showing a fairly tame weakening cold front break up as it passes down the country Weds night into Thurs. Wintry but light stuff, probably mainly sleet and some light snow on higher ground. ICON still showing the most snow from this. Bit away yet for any accuracy, ECM showing more in the way of wintry precipitation on the 12Z than previous runs. Has the the cold front move into cold air, 850 hPa of about -5 to -6C and similar type temperatures following.
Looks fairly heavy for me.0 -
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850hPa temps around now are about -5,-6 but are due to drop to -8 for a time over the next few days, if we could squeeze a -9 maybe some coastal parts of Dublin could catch some snow...
GFS charts
around now
tomorrow night
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after midday tomorrow we do get colder uppers for the rest of the week, generally -6 to -8. The -10 just about tips into County Donegal on Thursday night into Friday morning.
-9 across the whole country early on Friday. Sadly it looks mostly dry through most of this period.0 -
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Getting increasingly cold as we move through the week with sharp to severe frosts right up to Sat morning. Models all showing wintry precipitation later Weds into Thurs with a slow moving weakening front moving down from the NW / N. Freezing looks set to move in quickly Weds evening and 850 hPa temps look decent for sleet and snow, maybe freezing rain also, what falls would more than likely be falling onto freezing ground and would no doubt lead to very tricky driving / walking conditions on Thurs morning. To me it looks like the top third of the country with the most snow, especially higher ground but looks like lower elevations will see snow also but in general it looks light. All depends how much precipitation the front holds as it moves down the country, currently looks like sleet or a dusting of snow is possible down along the country, amounts atm look light, would think a fair chance of light snow flurries in places.
Some very cold air showing up on the models Fri and Sat especially down along the E and SE and models showing that snow showers could occur close to or moving in over the coastline , the SE looks like it could get snow showers Fri night /Sat morning. Wicklow Mts should have a good coating by Sat morning.
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Artane2002 wrote: »the GFS still has countrywide sub -9c uppers and the chance of snow showers for some on Friday, hopefully it's correct.
That looks fabulous for me! Unfortunately it’s high pressure.0 -
Meteorite58 wrote: »Getting increasingly cold as we move through the week with sharp to severe frosts right up to Sat morning. Models all showing wintry precipitation later Weds into Thurs with a slow moving weakening front moving down from the NW / N. Freezing looks set to move in quickly Weds evening and 850 hPa temps look decent for sleet and snow, maybe freezing rain also, what falls would more than likely be falling onto freezing ground and would no doubt lead to very tricky driving / walking conditions on Thurs morning. To me it looks like the top third of the country with the most snow, especially higher ground but looks like lower elevations will see snow also but in general it looks light. All depends how much precipitation the front holds as it moves down the country, currently looks like sleet or a dusting of snow is possible down along the country, amounts atm look light, would think a fair chance of light snow flurries in places.
Some very cold air showing up on the models Fri and Sat especially down along the E and SE and models showing that snow showers could occur close to or moving in over the coastline , the SE looks like it could get snow showers Fri night /Sat morning. Wicklow Mts should have a good coating by Sat morning.
Excellent Meteorite as always. Plenty calling this mini cold spell over before it has begun.
Just the prelude before the main event later in the month I hope. Time to look at the oil tank levels...0 -
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Rebelbrowser wrote: »The ECM run tonight has more dark blues over us in its first 5 days than we often have in a winter!
Not bad at all.
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a chance of some transitional frontal snow on Thursday from the leading edge of that band of precipitation. There will be a mild sector involved with it tho, dew points rise just above 0 as the band crosses the country and falls again after it clears. Some places could see some flakes, but the chances are that it will turn to rain with the exception of high ground as the temperatures, uppers and dew points rise briefly.
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a chance of some transitional frontal snow on Thursday from the leading edge of that band of precipitation. There will be a mild sector involved with it tho, dew points rise just above 0 as the band crosses the country and falls again after it clears. Some places could see some flakes, but the chances are that it will turn to rain with the exception of high ground as the temperatures, uppers and dew points rise briefly.
It doesn’t warm more than -4c for a lot of places. So that could sustain snow.0 -
Some great ECM soundings within that frontal band overnight Wednesday/Thursday.
The first sounding is for that dark blue area north of Mullingar. Absolute bliss, with a deep saturated layer up to the optimum -10 C zone and close to, but all just below, zero. Plenty of precipitations with that and it would be all snow.
The second sounding is the from the red freezing rain area near Galway. We can see that there is a fairly deep saturated warm (above zero) layer just above a sub-zero surface layer. The warm layer allows snow to melt to just enough for it to freeze again on contact with the frozen surface.
Of course, this is still over 48 hours away, so minor tweeks are possible, but it's a while since I've seen the ECM showing such nice soundings.
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Gaoth Laidir wrote: »Some great ECM soundings within that frontal band overnight Wednesday/Thursday.
The first sounding is for that dark blue area north of Mullingar. Absolute bliss, with a deep saturated layer up to the optimum -10 C zone and close to, but all just below, zero. Plenty of precipitations with that and it would be all snow.
The second sounding is the from the red freezing rain area near Galway. We can see that there is a fairly deep saturated warm (above zero) layer just above a sub-zero surface layer. The warm layer allows snow to melt to just enough for it to freeze again on contact with the frozen surface.
Of course, this is still over 48 hours away, so minor tweeks are possible, but it's a while since I've seen the ECM showing such nice soundings.
How does it look as it heads further south GL?0 -
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Gaoth Laidir wrote: »Some great ECM soundings within that frontal band overnight Wednesday/Thursday.
The first sounding is for that dark blue area north of Mullingar. Absolute bliss, with a deep saturated layer up to the optimum -10 C zone and close to, but all just below, zero. Plenty of precipitations with that and it would be all snow.
The second sounding is the from the red freezing rain area near Galway. We can see that there is a fairly deep saturated warm (above zero) layer just above a sub-zero surface layer. The warm layer allows snow to melt to just enough for it to freeze again on contact with the frozen surface.
Of course, this is still over 48 hours away, so minor tweeks are possible, but it's a while since I've seen the ECM showing such nice soundings.
Looks like snow for a lot of the centre and north of the country to me.
You need a good bit of "marginal-ity" to get low level snow in Ireland. For example, very few snowfalls here have been forecast by ME.
Too cold in a scenario like this, and the precipitation tends to disappear.
"Its too cold to snow" the old folks would say. Well they werent stupid :pac:0 -
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The 06Z ECM soundings have gone even colder for early Thursday morning's precipitation, with the total column now a degree or two colder, though precipitation rates are slightly down. Still around 11 mm total precipitable water so light fluffy snow would occur if the sounding verifies.
e.g. north of Mullingar again.
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Gaoth Laidir wrote: »This is the downgrade in precipitation intensity between the 00Z and 06Z ECM runs for 7 am Thursday.
00Z run
06Z run
Could you produce a sounding for my location again please. (Just not on the immediate coast)
Try 55.05N and -6.92W0 -
Gaoth Laidir wrote: »The 06Z ECM soundings have gone even colder for early Thursday morning's precipitation, with the total column now a degree or two colder, though precipitation rates are slightly down. Still around 11 mm total precipitable water so light fluffy snow would occur if the sounding verifies.
e.g. north of Mullingar again.
Any chance of a PL forming at this stage?
Edit: Surprised to see no thread for this.
Even though it looks to be small amounts - there's been 10 page threads running here for far less!0 -
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Gaoth Laidir wrote: »Closest I can get, 130 m amsl.
Thank you. Is there anywhere nearby that is sea level when the front arrives?0 -
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we've waited all winter for some decent upper cold to come in, well it's coming on Friday with -11c uppers over Dublin according to the GFS...... but it's looking dry for that particular timeframe in the east. Friday morning is actually looking interesting for falling snow at least, I'm surprised by the relative lack of talk about it here, there's some snow showers along the north and west coasts with a band of more organised snow sliding down the east coast.
Friday morning precip
Friday afternoon uppers
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