Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

Rebelbrowser · 18-01-2019 5:33pm

Marengo wrote: »

Agreed. It was a lovely wintry spell and I lived in a mountainy area then and had snow from 2nd Feb until the last left ditches on 23 Feb.

That was a Leinster only event guys. Not a flake for the rest of us as I recall.

highdef · 18-01-2019 5:34pm

Marengo wrote: »

Going a little downhill at 198h but maybe a slider low coming up and high building over Scandinavia. #eternal optimist

Not sure if I agree. Pressure is continuing to build from Scandinavia towards Greenland. The low to our west doesn't seem to be making any inroads which is a good sign. This a great run, in terms of making me nervous!!!

Rebelbrowser · 18-01-2019 5:36pm

Does anyone see any correlation at all between the excitement of the nutters on NW and this afternoons models so far? Even for the UK they are a downgrade but try telling them that! We seem to be too near High pressure for any chance of snow from the cold temps we will see on 24 to 26 Jan.

kittyn · 18-01-2019 5:37pm

highdef wrote: »

Not sure if I agree. Pressure is continuing to build from Scandinavia towards Greenland. The low to our west doesn't seem to be making any inroads which is a good sign. This a great run, in terms of making me nervous!!!

Nervous excited maybe

Marengo · 18-01-2019 5:37pm

highdef wrote: »

Not sure if I agree. Pressure is continuing to build from Scandinavia towards Greenland. The low to our west doesn't seem to be making any inroads which is a good sign. This a great run, in terms of making me nervous!!!

Yes that low is stalling and overall better. Knife edge stuff.

Feck it we might get lucky somewhere along the line.

Villain · 18-01-2019 5:41pm

Well the UKMO is interesting! Let’s see what ECMWF does later, interesting model watching days ahead!

Billcarson · 18-01-2019 5:41pm

Gonzo wrote: »

Marengo wrote: »

Was it not 2012?

It happened both years, but to a greater extent in 2012 we're we didn't get a flake of snow. In 2013 with got some feeble nighttime attempts of snow In March.

I think in Britain though it was really only a southeast event anyway. If I remember much of the UK missed out aswell. Severe cold in Europe with Ireland and most of Britain missing out but very cold in the se of Britain late Jan much of the first half of feb 2012. We got one or 2 severe frosts at the very start of Feb.

Marengo · 18-01-2019 5:42pm

It looks like the ECM is going to be the most important run since.. last night's;)

Marengo · 18-01-2019 5:43pm

Billcarson wrote: »

I think in Britain though it was really only a southeast event anyway. If I remember much of the UK missed out aswell. Severe cold in Europe with Ireland and most of Britain missing out but very cold in the se of Britain late Jan much of the first half of feb 2012. We got one or 2 severe frosts at the very start of Feb.

Remember the 6N match v France being called off last min in 2012. They had serious cold.

pad199207 · 18-01-2019 5:44pm

Snow right on the coast in Liverpool today

Muckka · 18-01-2019 5:45pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Snow right on the coast in Liverpool today

Probably the Wirral

highdef · 18-01-2019 5:46pm

Very much knife edge stuff as the GFS continues to roll out. Although there is high pressure showing from Greenland to northern Scandinavia/Russia, the cold pool to our east is not showing as THAT cold. Great charts, by all means though.

pad199207 · 18-01-2019 5:46pm

Muckka wrote: »

Probably the Wirral

Sefton Park.

highdef · 18-01-2019 5:48pm

On the upside, it looks like the cold is moving north, back out of Canada. At the same time, extremely cold uppers are building to our north and north east. Perhaps this could lead to us getting our share of the cold that the US and Canada has been having lately.

Billcarson · 18-01-2019 5:51pm

Gonzo wrote: »

Marengo wrote: »

Very like February 2009..

I'd be more than happy to have another February 2009.

I would easily take a week of proper cold with 5 or 6 inches of snow, lovely sunsets glowing over snowfields and severe night time frosts in the next 2 weeks over last year's Beast From The East/Storm Emma.

However Beast From The East/Storm Emma around now would be much better than having it run into March.

Yes. The one thing tbfte was missing last yr apart from not coming earlier in the season was frosty nights and deep cold minimums. Here in the east anyway it was often cloudy. I would much rather a few inches of snow combined with bright frosty weather and lasting longer on the ground. Last yr was more like a wham bam thank you mam thing really with the as much snow as we got gone after a few short days.

sryanbruen · 18-01-2019 6:05pm

Billcarson wrote: »

Yes. The one thing tbfte was missing last yr apart from not coming earlier in the season was frosty nights and deep cold minimums. Here in the east anyway it was often cloudy. I would much rather a few inches of snow combined with bright frosty weather and lasting longer on the ground. Last yr was more like a wham bam thank you mam thing really with the as much snow as we got gone after a few short days.

That's exactly why I found 2010 far superior, not because of it being much more prolonged but the fact that there was fine bright weather on a good number of the days with snow especially the end of November.

Gonzo · 18-01-2019 6:07pm

latest run definitely has some positive to it.

Eastern Ireland looks to hold onto the cold from Tuesday better. Certainly next Wednesday and Thursday is looking colder for Leinster, perhaps a slightly better chance that next Tuesday's precipitation event could turn snowy over Leinster at times, but still marginal.

The mild looks like it has shifted west by about 50 or 60 miles, which is still not enough, but we could be in line for some wintry showers over Leinster next Wednesday and Thursday.

Marengo · 18-01-2019 6:07pm

Jean Byrne on RTE 1 weather now saying 'turning much colder by the end of next week'. Verbatim quote. UKMO based assessment probably?

SortingYouOut · 18-01-2019 6:10pm

Snow falling here in Laois.

Gonzo · 18-01-2019 6:16pm

SortingYouOut wrote: »

Snow falling here in Laois.

where in Laois? It's generally 8 to 9C across most of Ireland right now.

KingdomRushed · 18-01-2019 6:19pm

The afternoon model outputs are coalescing around historic cold outbreak into Western Europe. It’s looking like the variability is reducing in GFS ensembles too with cold solutions now favored after the low dives south Tuesday.

Most notable day of model output since the Beast last year for me and I’m now firmly paying attention

daheff · 18-01-2019 6:21pm

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Nothing epic? 06z GFS has a 1982 or March 2018 type event at day 9/10 - Obviously not* to be taken seriously at this point but places would get buried if this came off-

Until either MT Cranium comes telling me its happening or it happens, I'm not getting my hopes up.

But i will be getting my spot to watch the lamppost all cosy & ready

Marengo · 18-01-2019 6:21pm

KingdomRushed wrote: »

The afternoon model outputs are coalescing around historic cold outbreak into Western Europe. It’s looking like the variability is reducing in GFS ensembles too with cold solutions now favored after the low dives south Tuesday.

Most notable day of model output since the Beast last year for me and I’m now firmly paying attention

When i hear you speak so Kingdom Rushed it fill me with hope:)

Billcarson · 18-01-2019 6:23pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Billcarson wrote: »

Yes. The one thing tbfte was missing last yr apart from not coming earlier in the season was frosty nights and deep cold minimums. Here in the east anyway it was often cloudy. I would much rather a few inches of snow combined with bright frosty weather and lasting longer on the ground. Last yr was more like a wham bam thank you mam thing really with the as much snow as we got gone after a few short days.

That's exactly why I found 2010 far superior, not because of it being much more prolonged but the fact that there was fine bright weather on a good number of the days with snow especially the end of November.

Also the cold spell of late feb into early march 2001. The east got heavy snow on the 27th and it was followed by cold frosty nights. The snow hung around a bit longer then last yr despite it being exactly the same time of the yr . I think cold frosty nights can help protect the snowcover to a certain extent by making it more resistant to melt during the daytime despite more sunshine.

derekon · 18-01-2019 6:35pm

Gonzo wrote: »

where in Laois? It's generally 8 to 9C across most of Ireland right now.

Laois, it's a small village in Siberia!! LOL, me thinks someone has made a schoolboy error, not checking the temperatures before posting!!

D

derekon · 18-01-2019 6:41pm

daheff wrote: »

Until either MT Cranium comes telling me its happening or it happens, I'm not getting my hopes up.

But i will be getting my spot to watch the lamppost all cosy & ready

Yes, agreed. MT has been very non commital, which is perfectly understandable. I think over on UK Netweather he compared trying to get a handle on the models like six blind men trying to tame an elephant!

If he comes on board soon, I'd be much more confident!!

D

esposito · 18-01-2019 6:42pm

KingdomRushed wrote: »

The afternoon model outputs are coalescing around historic cold outbreak into Western Europe. It’s looking like the variability is reducing in GFS ensembles too with cold solutions now favored after the low dives south Tuesday.

Most notable day of model output since the Beast last year for me and I’m now firmly paying attention

The fact that the UKMO model appears to be on board is very significant. Very interesting but still not getting carried away just yet.

munsterlegend · 18-01-2019 6:51pm

KingdomRushed wrote: »

The afternoon model outputs are coalescing around historic cold outbreak into Western Europe. It’s looking like the variability is reducing in GFS ensembles too with cold solutions now favored after the low dives south Tuesday.

Most notable day of model output since the Beast last year for me and I’m now firmly paying attention

Britain definitely in the firing line but will the colder air make it far enough west?

Reckless Abandonment · 18-01-2019 6:55pm

If I was in England I,d be stocking up the bread alright, but god its a knife edge for us, my untrained opinion is, it will all move west and well be in the game to.

should say it will all move east and jump back west 24h out

Danno · 18-01-2019 7:03pm

Some snow above 350m or thereabouts in Laois:

https://twitter.com/LaoisWeather/status/1086318889410138112

m17 · 18-01-2019 7:07pm

Southern germany 16/01/19

Danno · 18-01-2019 7:09pm

SortingYouOut wrote: »

Snow falling here in Laois.

Gonzo wrote: »

where in Laois? It's generally 8 to 9C across most of Ireland right now.

derekon wrote: »

Laois, it's a small village in Siberia!! LOL, me thinks someone has made a schoolboy error, not checking the temperatures before posting!!

D

Over the Slieve Bloom mountains around an hour ago, there were a few very light showers about, possibly sleety at the very highest parts - I didn't drive through any showers though, but I guess they were what SortingYouOut is on about?

Villain · 18-01-2019 7:24pm

The silence during ECMWF in here

Marengo · 18-01-2019 7:28pm

It's a little different than UKMO at 120 but hopefully evolving to the same conclusion, in it's own way...

SleetAndSnow · 18-01-2019 7:32pm

I mean.. its not great up to 144..more east.. but its a rollercoaster throughout the entire week. This happened countless times last year too, I remember one such occasion when the ECM showed a total different setup maybe 72hrs before? But thenext run we were back to BFTE viewings.

Ah well. Rollercoaster is the main word here, and thats why its so fun!

Mortelaro · 18-01-2019 7:33pm

Marengo wrote: »

It's a little different than UKMO at 120 but hopefully evolving to the same conclusion, in it's own way...

Slacker winds but same air source,surely dew points would be negative and with low pressure about,what would be falling out of the sky?
Isn't this essentially the main model of the big three now saying game on

Artane2002 · 18-01-2019 7:34pm

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

I mean.. its not great up to 144..more east.. but its a rollercoaster throughout the entire week. This happened countless times last year too, I remember one such occasion when the ECM showed a total different setup maybe 72hrs before? But thenext run we were back to BFTE viewings.

Ah well. Rollercoaster is the main word here, and thats why its so fun!

If I remember correctly, the ECM kept insisting that we'd get mild southwesterlies for numerous runs in a row.

sryanbruen · 18-01-2019 7:35pm

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

I mean.. its not great up to 144..more east.. but its a rollercoaster throughout the entire week. This happened countless times last year too, I remember one such occasion when the ECM showed a total different setup maybe 72hrs before? But thenext run we were back to BFTE viewings.

Ah well. Rollercoaster is the main word here, and thats why its so fun!

What I remember from last year was that the ECM showed the high pressure too far south to pull in the easterly to Ireland on a lot of its runs. People were being pessimistic about it and I called it the "European Crap Model" as a result out of anger trying to prove it was wrong and how strongly I felt of the easterly coming through for us.

SleetAndSnow · 18-01-2019 7:38pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

What I remember from last year was that the ECM showed the high pressure too far south to pull in the easterly to Ireland on a lot of its runs. People were being pessimistic about it and I called it the "European Crap Model" as a result out of anger trying to prove it was wrong and how strongly I felt of the easterly coming through for us.

Yup thats what I remember and then it all changed again with the next model! Knew it was something like that alright.

Villain · 18-01-2019 7:38pm

Ya ECM shows how tight this is and how we could just miss out but the cold pool is there we just need to tap into it a little more.

Plenty more “crucial” runs ahead.

Whatever the outcome isn’t it great to watching these kind of charts rather than the boring high pressure mild cloudy crap for first week of January!

Marengo · 18-01-2019 7:40pm

At present 2 out of 3 models ain't bad. Given we'd rather have all 3 or the ECM instead of the GFS

Still..all toplay for.

SeaBreezes · 18-01-2019 7:42pm

Have to agree loving the charts and the knife edge of the will it won’t it. Thanks to all the posters and the knowledge shared&#55357;&#56397; Loving the roller coaster and the interpretations!

Marengo · 18-01-2019 7:47pm

That ECM is going in the Netweather bin!!

sryanbruen · 18-01-2019 7:48pm

Marengo wrote: »

That ECM is going in the Netweather bin!!

Which one

? They must have had a good few bins by this stage.

SleetAndSnow · 18-01-2019 7:48pm

Know why I prefer this forum vs netweather? Just looking at it now and they are pretty much having a panic attack and looking everywhere for something versus here where we are just enjoying the ride and actually having discussions about the outlook (while obvs looking where it could improve but you know what I mean!)

Marengo · 18-01-2019 7:52pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Which one ? They must have had a good few bins by this stage.

I suppose their GFS bin...seems pretty large!!

hatrickpatrick · 18-01-2019 7:52pm

Let's be honest folks, if the models weren't unpredictable like this, weather forecasting would be boring as f*ck. Hopefully the ECM jumps on board tomorrow morning, until then let's just hope for the best!

I will say that this frame at 216 looks extremely odd and gives me cause to doubt this run:

ECM1-216.GIF?18-0

That's the messiest looking setup I've seen in a while for our part of the world and I'd be very surprised if anything looking like this actually verified.

EDIT: Also, that low in the bottom-middle of the chart looks very like a tropical or subtropical system, seems very unlikely we'd have a system like that in the mid-Atlantic at this time of year?

YanSno · 18-01-2019 7:53pm

12z Ecm more realistic outcome based on NAO

Marengo · 18-01-2019 7:54pm

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Know why I prefer this forum vs netweather? Just looking at it now and they are pretty much having a panic attack and looking everywhere for something versus here where we are just enjoying the ride and actually having discussions about the outlook (while obvs looking where it could improve but you know what I mean!)

This is a great forum, it really caters for everyone. Granted a few more runs like that and it'll go quiet for a while but no doubt in a day or two we'll dust ourselves (snow!) down and get on with it.

Franz Von Peppercorn · 18-01-2019 7:58pm

All to play for. Get the cold in. It’s the trend that counts. Let’s not cherry pick. Half way through winter.

^

That’s what they are thinking on netweather.

Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

Comments