FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Gonzo · 03-02-2021 7:54pm

GEM 12z is very similar to the ECM 12z, brings the mild in Wednesday night/Thursday.

Overall basically we are looking at a 3 to 4 day cold spell for now. This breakdown is a whole week away and well into FI land. I think the best thing we can do for now is focus on Saturday night to Tuesday. At this point I think everything up to next Tuesday night looks reasonably safe.

nacho libre · 03-02-2021 7:54pm

Captain Snow wrote: »

Any engress into entrenched cold over Ireland from the Atlantic will produce dinner sized snow flakes.

Yes. Hopefully a decent snowfall before any transition back to rain. Before that a few snowy days for people to enjoy

Donegal Ken · 03-02-2021 8:00pm

I wouldn't be looking past next Wednesday as models are still coming to terms with this and I think early next week is now fairly nailed down now with significant falls of snow for the eastern half of Ireland and also for northern parts of Ulster from Sunday night into Tuesday. We may see a more widespread snow event later next week then.

nacho libre · 03-02-2021 8:01pm

Reversal wrote: »

Return to mild is at day 8. Imagine what would be said if we treated the arrival of cold at day 8 as gospel.

The ECM has moved to the GFS scenario regarding that low.

It's all quite plausible,If we look at what the jetstream profile is. In any event we get a 4 day cold and snowy spell, assuming there no downgrades. 4 or 5 days is the best we usually get, anything longer is uncommon.

Nqp15hhu · 03-02-2021 8:04pm

Donegal Ken wrote: »

I wouldn't be looking past next Wednesday as models are still coming to terms with this and I think early next week is now fairly nailed down now with significant falls of snow for the eastern half of Ireland and also for northern parts of Ulster from Sunday night into Tuesday. We may see a more widespread snow event later next week then.

You think we will see snow? I am expecting nothing, the wind is straight easterly.

squarecircles · 03-02-2021 8:08pm

A few frosty dry nights in the west before the dogmuck returns.pathetic.

Easterlys are useless for snow what we need is a northerly blast,

Imagine to think we've been waiting since mid December for this, its so sad.

nacho libre · 03-02-2021 8:08pm

If there will be a breakdown, i'll gladly take this

2012224173_us_model-en-999-0_modez_2021020300_240_4855_155(1).png.060df6079aaa9de26b7649efa394ab49.png

2012224173_us_model-en-999-0_modez_2021020300_240_4855_155(1).png.060df6079aaa9de26b7649efa394ab49.png

typhoony · 03-02-2021 8:09pm

esposito wrote: »

How worried would you be about this energy entering the Atlantic from the snowstorms on east coast US? It’s not a certainty that it will fire up the jet is it? And if it does, could the low pressure systems diverge south into Iberia and miss us altogether. Trying to be positive...

not much to be positive about as the systems look like making us the Bullseye, they will make short work of the colder air

Stevieluvsye · 03-02-2021 8:09pm

squarecircles wrote: »

A few frosty dry nights in the west before the dogmuck returns.pathetic.

Easterlys are useless for snow what we need is a northerly blast,

Imagine to think we've been waiting since mid December for this, its so sad.

Boohoo for you

Easterlies are certainly not useless where i am

nacho libre · 03-02-2021 8:11pm

squarecircles wrote: »

A few frosty dry nights in the west before the dogmuck returns.pathetic.

Easterlys are useless for snow what we need is a northerly blast,

Imagine to think we've been waiting since mid December for this, its so sad.

I, for one, will be very glad of a few fine days from an easterly after 5 days with no sunshine. Bring on the clear blue skies, and the frosty mornings and nights!

Arduach · 03-02-2021 8:15pm

nacho libre wrote: »

I, for one, will be very glad of a few fine days from an easterly after 5 days with no sunshine. Bring on the clear blue skies, and the frosty mornings and nights!

Good attitude. And anything is possible from Wednesday night on. The west could be on the mild/cold boundary and end up with a blizzard like 25/26 February 1947.

Kermit.de.frog · 03-02-2021 8:16pm

Gonzo wrote: »

GEM 12z is very similar to the ECM 12z, brings the mild in Wednesday night/Thursday.

Overall basically we are looking at a 3 to 4 day cold spell for now. This breakdown is a whole week away and well into FI land. I think the best thing we can do for now is focus on Saturday night to Tuesday. At this point I think everything up to next Tuesday night looks reasonably safe.

Absolutely. It may well break down around Wednesday/Thursday but we won't know that until Saturday at the earliest in my opinion.

There will always be ups and downs in the build up to events. It's just part and parcel of it.

It's fun though.

Little snowy old me · 03-02-2021 8:16pm

squarecircles wrote: »

A few frosty dry nights in the west before the dogmuck returns.pathetic.

Easterlys are useless for snow what we need is a northerly blast,

Imagine to think we've been waiting since mid December for this, its so sad.

I'm trying to remain positive but I think your summary may turn out to be correct. Its all going a bit wobbly this evening and the RTE weather after 6 news was very tame.

murfo · 03-02-2021 8:18pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Kermit, you have taken on the status of a John Giles at half time in a Ireland match in the 90's. We all turn to you to find out how things are going even though we are watching ourselves!

Course that raises the spectre of there being a Bill and a Dunphy on the weather forum too.....

As long as he doesn't start saying stuff like "the ecm looks a bit scratchy past t120"

Kermit.de.frog · 03-02-2021 8:19pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Kermit, you have taken on the status of a John Giles at half time in a Ireland match in the 90's. We all turn to you to find out how things are going even though we are watching ourselves!

Course that raises the spectre of there being a Bill and a Dunphy on the weather forum too.....

Well, you do have to take each chart on it's merits...

Arduach · 03-02-2021 8:21pm

Little snowy old me wrote: »

I'm trying to remain positive but I think your summary may turn out to be correct. Its all going a bit wobbly this evening and the RTE weather after 6 news was very tame.

The new lady forecaster is quite matter of fact. Met Eireann wouldn't get excited about something starting 4 days away anyway.

What you need is George Lee doing the forecast and he'd make it sound like The Day After Tomorrow.

Nothing going wobbly at all.

Arduach · 03-02-2021 8:22pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Well, you do have to take each chart on it's merits...

I think myself anytime she forecasts, Siobhan Ryan shows a lot of moral courage.

Little snowy old me · 03-02-2021 8:25pm

Arduach wrote: »

The new lady forecaster is quite matter of fact. Met Eireann wouldn't get excited about something starting 4 days away anyway.

What you need is George Lee doing the forecast and he'd make it sound like The Day After Tomorrow.

Nothing going wobbly at all.

George Lee ha ha. The other end of the scale! He sure is a drama queen.

OK. Will remain positive. Time for tea and cake and to feed the dogs. I'll get my frosty days and maybe even a bit of snow too. Better than nothing. Keeping calm.....

Arduach · 03-02-2021 8:26pm

I think little Snowy Old Me has to be Dunphy..'the 12z GFS was a good run, not a great one'.

Nacho, the voice of reason, Bill O'Herlihy.. 'Well I for one would be happy with 4 frosty days.. And it must be said that this cold spell could last beyond Wednesday John?'

squarecircles · 03-02-2021 8:27pm

We need siobhan Ryan with her frust and copious amounts of snow in the main there.

All the while remaining bitterly cold there throughout.

Arduach · 03-02-2021 8:29pm

squarecircles wrote: »

We need siobhan Ryan with her frust and copious amounts of snow in the main there.

All the while remaining bitterly cold there throughout.

I get excited when Siobhan says 'copious amounts'

Dickie10 · 03-02-2021 8:34pm

i get excited when i see Siobhan. I seen her in the flesh once!

DOCARCH · 03-02-2021 8:34pm

Arduach wrote: »

I get excited when Siobhan says 'copious amounts'

Relentless....

snowstorm445 · 03-02-2021 8:37pm

Arduach wrote: »

I think little Snowy Old Me has to be Dunphy..'the 12z GFS was a good run, not a great one'.

Nacho, the voice of reason, Bill O'Herlihy.. 'Well I for one would be happy with 4 frosty days.. And it must be said that this cold spell could last beyond Wednesday John?'

Posts a chart ft. huge snow depths for Ireland: "We'll leave it there so!"

bazlers · 03-02-2021 8:40pm

Captain Snow wrote: »

No Panic ... all is good:)

I like the wiggles Captain Snow plenty of disturbance.

bazlers · 03-02-2021 8:45pm

I get excited when Siobhan says 'copious amounts'
Relentless....

Once you hear "Accumulations" bring a tear to a glass eye.

TonyMaloney · 03-02-2021 8:55pm

I'd rather no snow for anyone than loads of snow in Cork.
Seriously though, this is a little disappointing for the East. Hopefully it's way off.

Cork2021 · 03-02-2021 8:56pm

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I'd rather no snow for anyone than loads of snow in Cork.
Seriously though, this is a little disappointing for the East. Hopefully it's way off.

I’ll take it!!

bb1234567 · 03-02-2021 8:58pm

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I'd rather no snow for anyone than loads of snow in Cork.
Seriously though, this is a little disappointing for the East. Hopefully it's way off.

Omg imagine after all this buildup Dublin get's less than an inch. I will hold my breath big time!

Gonzo · 03-02-2021 9:02pm

the snowdepth charts cannot be taken seriously at this point, they will change another 7 times between now and Sunday based on the ECM.

Nqp15hhu · 03-02-2021 9:04pm

bb1234567 wrote: »

Omg imagine after all this buildup Dublin get's less than an inch. I will hold my breath big time!

I do worry they have built it up too much as well. Cold air streams can be dry too depending on the air pressure.

In the past Northerly’s here have brought no snow, just sunshine. So it’s worth bearing in mind.

Danno · 03-02-2021 9:15pm

Okay lads, back to the weather charts please!

P5, P6, P9, P10, P11, P16, P17, P24, P26, P29 OF THE 12Z GFS are decent members with the low staying south on Wednesday evening. Thats a 33% return rate at least a few more keeping it only making some inroads... all is not lost beyond Wednesday.

Meteorite58 · 03-02-2021 9:21pm

Well if there is any way to end a cold spell that is a huge dump of snow and stormy weather to follow !

All in FI of course , nothing certain but something is brewing would think. Has been showing a system or systems now for a good few runs, of course track strength and what cold pool is in place will all be fine tuned over the coming days, makes for interesting viewing .

Gonzo · 03-02-2021 11:11pm

The pub run is updating and it is marginally colder than the 12z.

It's also keeping the -10 uppers fringing into the country through Wednesday.

Jizique · 03-02-2021 11:15pm

Gonzo wrote: »

The pub run is updating and it is marginally colder than the 12z.

BBC news 10 day forecast giving it socks for the U.K. at the weekend, pretty open on it continuing into next week

Gonzo · 03-02-2021 11:23pm

-9 uppers clinging into Leinster till Wednesday evening with milder air making inroads. This is minimum 24 hour extras cold compared to the 12z.

That big low in the Atlantic is having more trouble moving east compared to the 12z as well.

Rebelbrowser · 03-02-2021 11:23pm

Much better temps down here. We get under the -8s and lower for 2 days, we were barely hitting -8 on the last run. Cold travelling further west.

TTLF · 03-02-2021 11:24pm

great streamer activity from Louth to Wicklow from Sunday Evening on that GFS 18Z with Dublin/Wicklow in the constant firing line too

Just have to wait and see...

sicknotexi · 03-02-2021 11:31pm

GFS para a much better run than it's big brother.

Dazler97 · 03-02-2021 11:31pm

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I'd rather no snow for anyone than loads of snow in Cork.
Seriously though, this is a little disappointing for the East. Hopefully it's way off.

I'm not liking those charts, no snow for me

Kermit.de.frog · 03-02-2021 11:31pm

Gonzo wrote: »

-9 uppers clinging into Leinster till Wednesday evening with milder air making inroads. This is minimum 24 hour extras cold compared to the 12z.

That big low in the Atlantic is having more trouble moving east compared to the 12z as well.

This will be chopping and changing for the next couple of days. It's completely open as to whether the Atlantic breaks through by Thursday.

You're spot on about temperatures. They are getting colder bit by bit with each run.

Gonzo · 03-02-2021 11:33pm

The model is really struggling to get the Atlantic in. While we do get milder air that low appears to be heading back towards Canada, while we get a push of mild air up from Biscay instead. The return of mild is starting to look a bit flimsy.

nacho libre · 03-02-2021 11:34pm

161376678_gfsnh-0-180(1).png.a94e0e145a39ddf180c6daa1fdb47255.png

Those weak heights are disrupting the lows it looks like! Atlantic return delayed!

Rougies · 03-02-2021 11:35pm

Bigger picture looks much the same, but baby steps in the right direction are very welcome. Slight changes run after run can add up to a significant difference by next week if they keep going in the same direction.

nacho libre · 03-02-2021 11:38pm

Gonzo wrote: »

The model is really struggling to get the Atlantic in. While we do get milder air that low appears to be heading back towards Canada, while we get a push of mild air up from Biscay instead. The return of mild is starting to look a bit flimsy.

Kermit could be right, the GFS might be coming round to the idea of the UKMO. We might find in the next couple of days the cold is extended!
Let's see what the members looks like. Hopefully this is the start of a trend we can build on.

Gonzo · 03-02-2021 11:38pm

The GFS P says no to the Atlantic and keeps us near the freezer up to next Friday.

gfs-1-204.png?18

nacho libre · 03-02-2021 11:43pm

Dazler97 wrote: »

I'm not liking those charts, no snow for me

As was mentioned earlier those charts will change numerous times, also they don't really take into account features that may pop up. We will always get the crumbs from an easterly, but if a trough or two pops up we might get some snow moving westwards. In any case the longer the cold spell goes on the higher the chance of us getting in on the action at some point from a frontal feature or perhaps from a change in the wind direction.

Kermit.de.frog · 03-02-2021 11:45pm

I see the 850hpa mean by 120 hours on the GFS ensembles is down to -10 or just abouts for Leinster. A drop of 1.5 to 2c on 12z mean.

Danno · 03-02-2021 11:47pm

BBC 10 DAY FORECAST:

https://www.bbc.com/weather/features/55895894

Gonzo · 03-02-2021 11:47pm

The warmth up from the south looks like it may be trying to get to Scandinavia. Well into FI land by this stage and that low is still in the Atlantic just sitting there.

Quiet a strange looking chart. Blocking also looks better compared to the 12z from the same day.

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Comments

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST