FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

ninebeanrows

And to think I just cancelled my order for winter wear

nacho libre

Day 12 could be interesting if that verified

Sleety_Rain

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

And to think I just cancelled my order for winter wear

Well,you can re order it now but make sure its waterproof and maybe ask if they could include a canoe as that ECM to my eyes keeps the snow to the hills or Ulster
A frightening amount of cold rain for the rest of us

Danno

96hrs, barely any agreement. :rolleyes:

Artane2002

well if this comes off, not only would you have to hand it to the GEM and GFS para, but also the CFS, which has been signalling an easterly for a while.

Oneiric 3

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Don't worry at 240, lightyears away (even though it's fine)...the building blocks are there day 6. Plenty to work with :pac:

Found out that Kermit's been moonlighting:

https://twitter.com/Russia_NC/status/1265580689254211586

Kermit.de.frog

Not great 18z GFS. Parallel on the other hand...



Long way to go with this

Gonzo

the 18z not great but at least it's similar to the 12z and not changing to something completely different. There is still hope and plenty of room for upgrades with it.

The morning will be more telling to what the ECM and GEM are saying after this afternoon's rather good runs.

nacho libre

Parallel is very good. I hope the GFS is up to its old trick, but then it can't be discounted as it was the first to correctly model the end of the December cool spell when other models did not. Let see what the morning runs bring.

Nqp15hhu

18Z shows snow over Northern Ireland on Saturday and Monday, not sure how that would be negative for cold lovers.

mcburns07

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

18Z shows snow over Northern Ireland on Saturday and Monday, not sure how that would be negative for cold lovers.

99% of us on here don't live in Northern Ireland

nacho libre

GFS pulls its out of the fire in the end!

Kermit.de.frog

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

18Z shows snow over Northern Ireland on Saturday and Monday, not sure how that would be negative for cold lovers.

There probably will be snow in Ulster and north Connaught at times over the weekend as well as higher parts of Wicklow.

It is something to watch.

You should try to engage with weather elsewhere and not keep everything to your backyard. Other forums are a pain in the neck with that attitude.

Gonzo

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

18Z shows snow over Northern Ireland on Saturday and Monday, not sure how that would be negative for cold lovers.

Most of us here are from the republic and there is very little chance of snow here this weekend. Infact it will be a fairly mild weekend in the south-west and some temporary cool weather with rain everywhere else. The cold does get into Northern Ireland but even there it looks very marginal stuff indeed. Perhaps tomorrow will have a better idea if the precipitation gets there at the same time that the temperatures, uppers and dew points are within a range where snow might happen.

To me it looks like snow is mainly going to be for Scotland and NE England between Lancashire away from the coasts and just north of London perhaps.

Slashermcguirk

The weather further south of more interest to most. Looks more like sleet over the weekend up north

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

18Z shows snow over Northern Ireland on Saturday and Monday, not sure how that would be negative for cold lovers.

Tyrone212

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

There probably will be snow in Ulster and north Connaught at times over the weekend as well as higher parts of Wicklow.

It is something to watch.

You should try to engage with weather elsewhere and not keep everything to your backyard. Other forums are a pain in the neck with that attitude.

Yes ecm shows North Connacht getting in on the action. Hopefully it stalls, pushes south and all get some joy. At least we're in with a shout of possibly something interesting this weekend.

Nqp15hhu

Gonzo wrote: »

Most of us here are from the republic and there is very little chance of snow here this weekend. Infact it will be a fairly mild weekend in the south-west and some temporary cool weather with rain everywhere else. The cold does get into Northern Ireland but even there it looks very marginal stuff indeed. Perhaps tomorrow will have a better idea if the precipitation gets there at the same time that the temperatures, uppers and dew points are within a range where snow might happen.

To me it looks like snow is mainly going to be for Scotland and NE England between Lancashire away from the coasts and just north of London perhaps.

Oh, I am not seeing snow is guaranteed just going on what the models show. But it does appear that we will see snow here, if the front heads as far north as predicted.

Kermit.de.frog

Some nice easterlies showing now on some members of the 18z GFS ensembles by day 7

lucernarian

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

There probably will be snow in Ulster and north Connaught at times over the weekend as well as higher parts of Wicklow.

It is something to watch.

You should try to engage with weather elsewhere and not keep everything to your backyard. Other forums are a pain in the neck with that attitude.

Quite likely to have snow on higher ground in Louth also

barney 20v

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Oh, I am not seeing snow is guaranteed just going on what the models show. But it does appear that we will see snow here, if the front heads as far north as predicted.

Ulster says Snow....

Rodar08

Gonzo wrote: »

Most of us here are from the republic and there is very little chance of snow here this weekend. Infact it will be a fairly mild weekend in the south-west and some temporary cool weather with rain everywhere else. The cold does get into Northern Ireland but even there it looks very marginal stuff indeed. Perhaps tomorrow will have a better idea if the precipitation gets there at the same time that the temperatures, uppers and dew points are within a range where snow might happen.


To me it looks like snow is mainly going to be for Scotland and NE England between Lancashire away from the coasts and just north of London perhaps.

And Donegal?

TheMilkyPirate

Don't you just love waking up to upgrades. GEM and GFS both showing an easterly over night. Easterly established by +174

TheMilkyPirate

All aboard





These charts are still 8/9 days away and aren't perfect but it's great to see the trend continued

Kermit.de.frog

Charts are still ok but a long way to go.

TheMilkyPirate

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

All aboard





These charts are still 8/9 days away and aren't perfect but it's great to see the trend continued

Wrong angle of attack on that one,pressure too high and the feed of 850's not cold enough
The necessary colder 850 feed is north of the source sir for Ireland
You might have some weak cold rain or sleet showers on the coast,they'd die out inland

Follow the isobars below and look at the 850's
You need them-9 or colder to build the showers
Being a day 10 chart,it would take 4 or 5 days for eastern Europe air to reach Ireland and would it be cold enough? Not on that map
More runs needed because obviously a day 10 chart in the current circumstances is not going to verify

Kermit.de.frog

Boom!

nacho libre

Well, its good to see a morning run that does not go pear shaped. I detect from some posters they are slightly less enthused by the morning output.
In the medium term they are not as good, but when you see a Genoa low or an Iberian low being modelled its a good sign. Also the high near us looks like it wants to go to Scandinavia. The second week of February could be interesting.

giveitholly

nacho libre wrote: »

Well, its good to see a morning run that does not go pear shaped. I detect from some posters they are slightly less enthused by the morning output.
In the medium term they are not as good, but when you see a Genoa low or an Iberian low being modelled its a good sign. Also the high near us looks like it wants to go to Scandinavia. The second week of February could be interesting.

Until it turns out to be the third week in February could be interesting and next minute we are in March

TheMilkyPirate

AuntySnow wrote: »

Wrong angle of attack on that one,pressure too high and the feed of 850's not cold enough
The necessary colder 850 feed is north of the source sir for Ireland
You might have some weak cold rain or sleet showers on the coast,they'd die out inland

Follow the isobars below and look at the 850's
You need them-9 or colder to build the showers
Being a day 10 chart,it would take 4 or 5 days for eastern Europe air to reach Ireland and would it be cold enough? Not on that map
More runs needed because obviously a day 10 chart in the current circumstances is not going to verify

I'm aware, as I said they aren't perfect. Those charts obviously aren't going to verify exactly like that so I don't think the little details are too important ATM. It's just great to see a trend and cross model agreement.

nacho libre

giveitholly wrote: »

Until it turns out to be the third week in February could be interesting and next minute we are in March

I would prefer to look at the positives for once- we have morning runs that sustain the interest from the earlier runs instead of the usual morning downgrades. It might still all amount to a hill of beans, but we are very much in the game at the moment for a good cold spell around the 7th of Februray onwards.