FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

squarecircles

squarecircles

Rebelbrowser

I think its around this time every year I mention Buchans Cold Spells. His first is 7 to 14 Feb and he's never (well when I say never, he hasn't been right since 1991 admittedly....) wrong - so these charts are destined to verify! See the late, great, Brendan McWilliams for those who want to know more....https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/buchan-most-likely-saint-of-meteorology-1.164035%3fmode=amp

Reversal

Ya gotta laugh, as soon as it becomes to the cool thing to take to twitter to say the SSW won't bring cold to these parts, the op runs flip to show Narnia.

In reality the long range and ensemble outputs have shown a battleground scenario giving way to easterlies in the second week of Feb for some time.

Latest NOAA 8-14 day 500mb outlook firming up a bit more on ridging into GIN area, with a more pronounced through into Europe, strong Westerly upper flow getting well south of Ireland now.

bazlers

The 7th could be start of something historical just like Brady and the Buccaneers ; ) must apologise for such a ramp : ). But Nacho Libre you are correct we have managed to hold on to the latest upgrades to the morning runs. That in itself is another big box ticked.

nacho libre

Reversal wrote: »

Ya gotta laugh, as soon as it becomes to the cool thing to take to twitter to say the SSW won't bring cold to these parts, the op runs flip to show Narnia.

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Well those op runs could flip again, but the NOAA chart you posted are usually a reliable indicator of the general airflow. We just might not get as favourable an outcome as some of the models suggest
The thing is once the upper strat recovers somewhat, it is often then that the troposphere really shows the final impact of the SSW.
I've also read that the effects of an SSW can be felt for 60 days after an ssw. I think the real point here is the experts don't fully understand this phenomenon and its consequences for the troposphere.

typhoony

save that 384 chart as it will probably be gone in the next run

jArgHA

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I think its around this time every year I mention Buchans Cold Spells. His first is 7 to 14 Feb and he's never (well when I say never, he hasn't been right since 1991 admittedly....) wrong

What a great line

nacho libre

The classic retrogression towards Greenland. A sustained cold spell likely if that verified, that may draw comparisons to others...

Too bad the final frames aren't for two days away

Reversal

The 12z GFS has -10 850s across the country by the 4th on strong easterly winds. Nice.

Cork2021

An unreliable enough weather app has my area in cork at -8 Saturday night week...

Rebelbrowser

GEM similar too I think?

Gonzo

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

GEM similar too I think?

This mornings GEM was decent, the 12z is rolling out now so will check back again in an hour when the ECM should also be updated by then.

Rebelbrowser

Gonzo wrote: »

This mornings GEM was decent, the 12z is rolling out now so will check back again in an hour when the ECM should also be updated by then.

Ah, thought that was the 12z I was looking at. As an aside, I only look at charts in winter. The 12z models are definitely coming out later this year than last year.

Gonzo

ECM is updated and it's not good.

nacho libre

It's a bit of a no man's land scenario at the end, but it could turn out good in the days afterwards. It would be good to have a clearer picture at this stage though.

typhoony

I'm wondering if we'll get that non-descript type of weather where it's neither cold or mild and generally dull and overcast.

lostweekend3

It's never straightforward is it. That's why the rollercoaster will never get rusty:D

GEM 12z looking good
gem-0-210.png

nacho libre

typhoony wrote: »

I'm wondering if we'll get that non-descript type of weather where it's neither cold or mild and generally dull and overcast.

Is this thinking based off one ECM run or your thoughts having looked at all the model output?

Humberto Salazar

ECM has no beasterly. I think the who beasterly chase this year is a fairy dust.

TheMilkyPirate

ECM still points to cold but a messy run alright that will no doubt be different again in the morning. The mean is decent at +240 though, an easterly, heights over Scandi and the trough pushing south.




Operational pretty much at the top of the ensembles

Artane2002

interesting to see that -10c is within one standard deviation of the mean, I haven't seen that on any ECM set this winter. it's great to see the ECM is a synoptic outlier too. hopefully the Atlantic doesn't spoil things for us.

typhoony

nacho libre wrote: »

Is this thinking based off one ECM run or your thoughts having looked at all the model output?

a bit of both really and also fair slice of gut feeling based on watching how the weather unfolds. a bit like the Donegal weatherman.

Billcarson

The best of this winters cold is coming imo, just have to see exactly what happens.

bazlers

If it was showing narnia now it could only go one direction there after. Room to improve is my taking from it.
Still a nice trend on offer.

Gonzo

Don't think were going to see the GEM this evening, it only goes up to 60 hours tonight.

Artane2002

Gonzo wrote: »

Don't think were going to see the GEM this evening, it only goes up to 60 hours tonight.

it's already out for me but it's missing some frames. it brings -11c uppers over the east.

TheMilkyPirate

Gonzo wrote: »

Don't think were going to see the GEM this evening, it only goes up to 60 hours tonight.

Out to +240 on Meteociel with a few frames missing

Gonzo

just had a look at the CFS for fun and if it verifies we are in for a very cold February and first half of March. Winds in from the north, north-east and east much of the time with a few milder interludes but the cold just keeps reloading. Even the second half of March all the way to mid May has easterlies at times and some fairly chilly events for the time of year. If this is anything to go by we could be in for a fairly chilly Spring this year. Something to keep an eye on. Scotland is basically in the freezer with barely any interruption between now and April if that verifies.

Gonzo

just for fun i'll highlight a few of the very cold days from the CFS, it will be interesting to look back on this in April and see how right or wrong this CFS is.









March:







April:


This is purely for fun but I don't ever remember going to town on the cold like this before for such an extended period. CFS usually has a bias towards the form horse and the Atlantic but not tonight.