FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

TheMilkyPirate

18z has us in an easterly from next Friday

Reversal

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

18z has us in an easterly from next Friday

A very cold and snowy easterly too. Perfect.

Gonzo

The GFS pub run is updating and the freezer is unleashed from February 5th. Only a week away. Major blocking over Greenland.

Rebelbrowser

I know the ECM isn't on board but otherwise today feels like the day the models picked up on an imminent event, and its only a week away too on most models....

Rebelbrowser

BTW that CFS is demented! Cold weather porn!

Gonzo

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

BTW that CFS is demented! Cold weather porn!

It's insane and if we even get half of what it is showing we will be doing extremely well. CFS get's alot of stick especially from terrible performance on recent winters but it has been fairly decent at predicting December/January from as early as last October so there is a possibility that it could be showing a correct trend for the next 2 months.

sicknotexi

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I know the ECM isn't on board but otherwise today feels like the day the models picked up on an imminent event, and its only a week away too on most models....

ECM has been playing catch up all winter. We need it to come on board but plenty of time.

nacho libre

The ECM run was an outlier, the mean is very much on board. Also if that ECM went out to day 12 we could well be heading for the freezer. In any case tomorrow mornings run will likely be much different.

The odds of a cold spell are increasing. What needs to be resolved is whether it will be potent, tame, or something in between.

nacho libre

Gonzo wrote: »

It's insane and if we even get half of what it is showing we will be doing extremely well. CFS get's alot of stick especially from terrible performance on recent winters but it has been fairly decent at predicting December/January from as early as last October so there is a possibility that it could be showing a correct trend for the next 2 months.

I did mention a while back that if the CFS verified spring would be delayed.

Gonzo

The pub run has fully updated and the ensembles, most of them are now going for real cold between February 5th to the 11th with many runs going under -10C uppers. Plenty of snow risk as well and sub zero temperatures by day and night on the colder runs. There are still some milder runs but these are outliers at this stage.



The coldest ensemble I've seen since February 2018.

John.Icy

A word of caution that the GFS Para 18z is rather similar to the ECM 12z at Day 8 - Day 10...GFS para has the atlantic low closer to us but the general gist is there; big low SW of Greenland not playing ball, high pressure to our SW poking its nose in again, all = no cold delivery.

The op was very good. But something to keep an eye out for, as the ECM throws in a poor run (that was at the top of the pile of its ensembles admittedly) then the 18z para sniffs out a similar pattern over that time period.

Still far into FI and lots of twists and turns to come. The general trend is still good. Hopefully the above is just a blip that will not be there on the 0z suites.

Gonzo

I noticed that the 18z GFS P was nowhere near as good as earlier runs overall and we get a big build of high pressure and overall warmth in about 9 days time. It could be an outlier on that model but haven't really looked at the GFS P too much.

Hopefully a much improved ECM on tomorrows runs and that the GFS OP and GEM stick to the great stuff they been modeling over the past 2 days.

The CFS and it's predictions are almost overkill in terms of frequency of deep cold and i don't think there is any chance we will have 6+ potent cold spells by Mid March, a half way house between that CFS and the GFS/ECM long range would really put us in a great run of winter weather.

Kermit.de.frog

ICON has an easterly established by day 5



And by day 6...

sicknotexi

sicknotexi wrote: »

Everything after the 5th of Feb(at the latest)is up for grabs. Wouldn't discount anything after that period.

Just call me, The Prophet.

Kermit.de.frog

UKMO on track





So long as a polar high extends it's tentacles to our little northern height rise we are in business. The Azores can take a hike. :cool:

Kermit.de.frog

GFS same way - Azores cut off - very cold easterly flow





Extraordinary

bazlers

There would be serious convection off the irish sea.

I could be wrong but i think water temps are running slightly higher than average.

Still nothing nailed yet, but I will admit to getting a wee bit excited : )

TheMilkyPirate

Some great over night charts hopefully the ECM jumps back on board, I reckon it will.

GEFS Mean at +186

Kermit.de.frog

Control run going super







Big steps forward

sicknotexi

ECM says Yes.

esposito

sicknotexi wrote: »

ECM says Yes.

The sheer relief. Still a long way to go. Not getting excited yet. A week is an eternity in weather!

TheMilkyPirate

Much much better ECM this morning





High retrogressing to Greenland at + 240?



Also this... :pac:

Villain

Did someone wake the beast?

Great charts this morning but we are still in FI, hold back the excitement, the roller-coaster is just winding up and GEFS has a few crashes on it.

bazlers

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Much much better ECM this morning





High retrogressing to Greenland at + 240?



Also this... :pac:

Emmas older sister

TheMilkyPirate

Villain wrote: »

Did someone wake the beast?

Great charts this morning but we are still in FI, hold back the excitement, the roller-coaster is just winding up and GEFS has a few crashes on it.

Yes early days still. If by the 18z on Sunday everything is in agreement I'll allow myself to be a little excited

Nqp15hhu

I just hope that the rest of us see some snow if there is an easterly. And it’s not constantly cloudy.

Slashermcguirk

Oh how I love the easterlies, winter bliss!

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

ICON has an easterly established by day 5



And by day 6...

froog

Is this beast territory lads?

Davaeo09

if it verifies - HELL YES

stooge

where is the michael jackson popcorn gif?
I follow this thread weekly, post rarely and am disappointed regularly
High risk of change given this is FI, but cant really ask for much better charts in that timeframe though.